Kingdom Managing: The Excel sheet

[hide=Disclaimer]I cannot be held responsible for any losses you may get due to information in my Excel sheet or guide, unless you also hold me responsible for all your wins.

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[hide=Introduction]Hello everybody,

This is a guide, which main content is an Excel document, posted on Google Docs. This guide is meant for people who know how kingdom managing works and are looking to make the highest profit possible out of it. If you do not know what kingdom managing is, or how it works, I suggest you read this guide, on the tip.it main site.

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[hide=The Excel sheet]This is the section in which I post the link to the sheet and explain how it works.

The sheet is hosted on Google Docs, so it's visible for everyone and it doesn't require a download. This is the link: http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key= ... v4yMIHAiTA

The sheet most of you will be interested in is the Final Output sheet. On the top left of this sheet there are the 3 best resources, of which the first two you should allocate your manpower on. The numbers next to them are the amount of gp's you will get per gp that reaches the workers. (This does not incorporate favour yet. Meaning this is the profit you will make per gp if you keep your favour at 100% all the time.) Below this there is a table in which a few things are noted down. On the left side it says the amount of days between renewals, starting with every day, then every 3 days and so on. At the top, it gives the amount of days you wait before getting your rescources. This starts at 7 days, then 14 and you'll see how it goes on. Then for every combinations of these two, it gives your expected profit and 3 probabilities, namely the ones that maples will give you a better profit than that particular resource. This may help you deciding whether you want a steady amount of money or that you would like to try and get a lot of profit from the bird nests. Other sheets give calculations I needed to do before I could reach these results aswell as probabilities on the extra's.

I made this sheet using webqueries, as Brainymidget described in his guide. (See Credits) This gets the GE prices to work with. Then I got all the results from the "Post your MTK results" thread in the General Forums, which had complete data, and used them to calculate probabilities on tree seeds, herb seeds, herbs, fishing extra's and gems from mining. These were used to calculate the expected value of the extra's. Using this I could complete calculations Chenjs2 did in an earlier guide, to get the best resources. Finally, I computed chances that maples would work better than other resources.

This is where there used to be a paragraph about how I needed to manually update the information. This is no longer necissary, due to the fact that I'm now using direct webqueries, instead of through the RuneScript parser. However, since Google Docs can only have 50 webqueries per document, while I needed 56, I have manually put a few in. These are Teak, Mahogany and 4 herbs, as these are the least likely to come out on top.

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[hide=You can improve this guide!]There are a few things which YOU can do to improve this guide. First of all: Submit your results to finetune my probabilities. Especially on the herb seeds my probabilities are not so accurate. I would also like to know your results from nests or any other extra. If you submit your results, please include all of the relevant data. In case of the herb seeds that is just how many you got of every seed. In the case of nests, that means all the seeds, rings and eggs you got.

Secondly, if you find any mistake in the Excel sheets or my post, don't hesitate to tell me.

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[hide=Credits]Chenjs2, for his original guide and checking my Excel sheet for mistakes.

Brainymidget, for his "How to use Google Docs to extract GE prices" guide.

JoeDaStudd, for criticism which allowed me to improve my spreadsheet.

Everyone who posted in the "Post your MTK results" thread and in the process provided me with data.

Google Docs, for hosting the spreadsheet.

Microsoft, for Excel.

Schaum's Outlines' Probability and Statistics, for providing me with enough knowledge to compute all the statistical calculations.

You, for reading my guide. :thumbsup:

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i wont download till some1 scans

As far as I'm aware, Google Docs does not require a download and does not pose any security risk. However, feel free to wait for a mod to confirm this.

i wont download till some1 scans

You don't need to DL anything. Clicking on the link takes you to the excel sheet.

But you must also account sellablility. Maple logs are the top volume sold(Proven by GE). Alot of people get 99 FM because it is one of the cheapest and easiest 99s. However, the amount of logs from one week of MTM will be usually enough for a player. Multiply that number by the sheer amount of people doing it, and Supply>Demand.

Flax and Fish are the best, since they sell at mid instantly.

Very good though.

Yes, sellability is definately a part, however, last time I sold maples, they sold for the GE mid price. The reason their price is so low is the fact that there's a higher supply and less demand for them, as they used to be 100 ea. If the price drops, more people (including you) switch to another resource, lowering the supply and bringing the price back up. Because of the supply and demand, the prices are already accurate and there shouldn't be any need to account for it in the Excel sheet, unless items are stuck, because noone sells/buys them.

Now, while I do agree that you should take it a little bit in account, it would only change your outcome if the profits are very close together. Besides, it's more convenient to decide on the spot whether you'd like a bit more profit or easier selling, seeing as it's very hard to put sellability in a number without testing it.

Good spreadsheet! Thanks for making it. I personally switched from flax to fish, and have not noticed a difference in profits by a significant margin.

The new seers diary reward gives 120 flax per day, isnt this bound to lower the price of flax significantly?

50000/40=1250

Everyone who has their workers on flax for 100% brings in more than 1k flax per day. And I believe this group is way larger than the group who finished the seers diary and gets their flax every day. What's more are the people picking flax normally. Therefore, I don't think this update will influence the price of flax a lot, maybe a little bit, but not so much.

That you don't notice the difference is because at the moment, the margin between flax, fish and maples is quite small, and there's a 3% difference at the absolute most. Which is about 3k per day more, if you pick the better one, which surely doesn't really matter over a week, but over a year, that's a whole 1M extra.

Well.

Even if everyone keep switching once the price goes down, it would take VERY long to sell off all of those Maple logs.

This is good, thanks :

Thank you!

I've now updated the sheets with direct webqueries, which draw the prices out of the GE database in one go and work with Google Docs. Therefore, I won't have to update the sheets anymore, so they should always be accurate.

So basically your spreadsheet says 100% workers in maples and 50% workers in fishing.

Am i correct?

Yes, you are. However, at the moment, the difference is really small and it could be that maples yield less than flax. However, the chance is a little bit bigger that maples yield more.

I still put it into flax because of it's sellability. It sells instantly at middle, while maples may take a few hours. The difference really isin't really different.

Well, you should do what you feel most comfortable with. However, my sheet gives the best mathematical option (which I personally trust more than my gut :lol: ).

I updated several things about my spreadsheet. All of them were pointed out to me by JoeDaStudd. Thank you for that. (Also in credits now.)

arg the spreadsheet hasnt been working for like 2 days now.