i look prices today and notice santas now sell under 20mill so they have gone downhill pretty quick...also not so long ago easters and pumpkins were over 10mill but not anymore...dunno about party hats or masks but i guess they havent gone any bit up long time.

 

 

 

ive recorded earlier how rare prices generally went up:

 

 

 

from october 2005 to march 2006 price increase was over 50%

 

from march 2006 to june 2006 price increase was ~25%

 

from june 2006 to january 2007 price increase ~40%

 

 

 

I calculated all rares together to give approx increase of rares...So it looks they reached top in end of year and looks they going down now?

 

What goes up, can also come down :P

 

 

 

With even nearly same rate, my item prices should be doubled til end of 2007 but so far it seems that its not going to happen very likely.

The market could do 3 things

 

 

 

1) The growing feeling among new players that rares are pointless. Could mean the rares market crashes to insanely low. As in a phat costing like 300k

 

 

 

2) Rares popularity could be sustained and prices continue to rise and supply decrease. But eventually all rares will land to players who are not merchants and do not wish to sell them on. The market in this case will just cease to exsist

 

 

 

3) Rares hit such a high people cannot buy them and prices will crash bk down to small mils, before beginning to grow again

 

 

 

Although they are some good thought out points I believe that they won't eventuate.

 

 

 

1) There will always be players around wanting these items as investments, and the demand won't cease to exist especially as there are so many merchants in the game now.

 

 

 

2) This is the most probably I believe out of the 3. Although their is always going to be those who will sell, considering that they would of payed into the hundreds of millions to buy phats and their will always be those using them as an investment to get a better headstart in raising skills buying better armour etc.

 

 

 

3) With so much money going into the game this will never occur. There will always be those out there with the amount of money to afford rares or else the rares wouldn't raise to the "high price" in the first place that you were writing about.

 

 

 

I believe that rares will gradually increase unless there is moments in the game which cause the price to rise (such as mass bans on Autoers etc. which we've seen in the past) which has drastically raised rare prices in a short period of time. If not the rares I believe would continue to rise at a steady rate until the eventual "end" of Runescape as there is always going to be continued amounts of money going into the game which will naturally, be part reason, for rares gaining in price steadily over long periods of time.

 

 

 

 

 

What happens when the christmas crackers price pass the maximum amount of gp in the game?

 

 

 

Unless Jagex raises this cap which would one would assume, people would pay with items plus cash. Such as a phat or two + gp.

 

 

 

I know my projections are unlike to follow all the way through, however that is the general road the rares market HAS to take. Chances are though with how ecnomics works other factors will come in and the path will continually switch meaning one of thoose situations never fully arises

The economy of rs is such, supply and demand blah blah blah...hm why are christmas crackers so expensive? Probably because rumor of different colored phats?

 

 

 

 

 

Everyone with a cracker or the ability to get one know for sure that you won't get any special phats from it. It's the most expensive item as there's really few of them left and the fact that even if they got crashed, they would be worth at leats as much as the least expensive phat keeps them high.

 

 

 

but if any one remembers like 6 years ago the pink p hat was worth the most..and now i think it's the cheapest...they go in spurts for awhile the green was and now blue is the popular one...

 

 

 

It's the most popular one too, in the dupe day it was the most produced phat. Also for the time when phats have been dirty expensive, blue has always been the number one. Back when green was the most expensive, it wast still those days when phats could be collected.

 

 

 

Rare item prices will go up in a long run, no matter what as long as Jagex doesn't give a new way to get them. Price manipulators, new things to spend on (costruction was a perfect example), new items such as 3rd age and so on can temporary affect to them, but not stop their long time growth.

 

 

 

With their current demand and supply they got no chances to drop a lot for a long period of time. People do longtime investions on them, merchant them and use them as status items. Those factors are more than enough to keep the prices high with the current supply. In future the supply will also decrease on bans while new stakers, merchanters and skillers rise the demand. Same time 3rd age armours are being brought to game every day. Eventually people with cash will turn away or already have their 3rd age sets and burst on phats again.

 

 

 

Only ways to stop or slow down the rise of rares is to either bring a new way to get them or do new things for people to spend cash on. First option would just cause riots amongs merchant and staker communities as months of hard work would drow down the drain. Quickly after it would mean a lot new gp put to raw materials and made their prices skyrocket.

 

Second could work for a while, but I seriously doubt Jagex would every month offer us a new expensive skill or new ultimate rare items. Skillers would just boycott these skills (I'd do too if they now gave us few new skills which are at least as expensive as construction) and drained some affect away from them that way.

 

 

 

I'm just personally waiting the day when all these kd hunters start emptying their banks and investing on rares or the richest stakers start doing skill total...

It is feasible that the rares market is in a huge bubble.

 

 

 

In terms of investment, the only reason why the price is rising is because other people are thinking that it is a great investment as well. As you can see, this is a cyclic argument, but it works in the marketplace, as long as there is enough consumer sentiment to drive it.

 

 

 

Eventually, there won't be that many people who can afford the phats, and thus the market begins to lose the masses of consumer sentiment that usually drives bubbles up -- then eventually: burst.

 

 

 

There will always be the players who want the phats because it's cool and rare, but if the market is reliant on the belief it's an investment, these bubbles can burst.

It is feasible that the rares market is in a huge bubble.

 

 

 

In terms of investment, the only reason why the price is rising is because other people are thinking that it is a great investment as well. As you can see, this is a cyclic argument, but it works in the marketplace, as long as there is enough consumer sentiment to drive it.

 

 

 

Eventually, there won't be that many people who can afford the phats, and thus the market begins to lose the masses of consumer sentiment that usually drives bubbles up -- then eventually: burst.

 

 

 

There will always be the players who want the phats because it's cool and rare, but if the market is reliant on the belief it's an investment, these bubbles can burst.

 

 

 

Bubble in a which way? They've been the most expensive items for years now, price going up pretty linearry and so on. With the current demand, supply and money brought to the game it's highly positive that they won't burst. If they temporary come down a lot, people will just try to get theirs and bump the price back up that way.

 

A time will come when the price of rares is so overwhelming that the entire rares market will probably come crashing down. What do you think will happen and what are your thoughts on the whole subject?

 

That's such a random thing to say, based off nothing. They didn't [bleep]e up overnight and have been stagnant at the prices they're at for over 6 months. If there was to be a huge crash, it would have happened already. They haven't escalated in months so I don't understand why you're suddenly perplexed by the 'ascending prices of rares,' because they've been stable for half a year.