The Investment Blog - HolyCannoli

[holycannoli]

I've returned! I'm tired though so no update right now.

 

 

 

 

 

However....

 

 

 

Things to sell:

 

Oak Logs

 

 

 

Things to buy:

 

Clay (not soft clay)

 

Death Runes

 

Cowhides (recommended)

[yobob69]

cowhides again? :twisted:

[holycannoli]

I like them lol

 

 

 

They're easy to buy because people are always selling in small amounts at market price, low level players kill the cows and sell an ivnentory or two for money on the ex. They're also easy to sell too, though, because people who use them for crafting or tanning don't want to wait an hour for a whole 8k of hides so they'll just buy for max price. It works out well because you don't need to be by the pc to make money.

 

 

 

All in all, they're usually a good investment. The same goes for things like oak logs because people use them for fletching and firemaking exp. They're in high demand but also the supply is constant so it's easy to just ride the price fluctuation.

 

 

 

Items liek that are also virtually free from clan merching because the trade volume is so high: The price rises and falls naturally, and can't be controlled easily because a clan would need huge amounts of people and massive money to buy out the exchange and to have an influence, so price rises are easy to predict and pretty much never fail.

 

 

 

Update:

 

Bought: 700k worth of cowhides, 107gp ea

 

Sold: 740k worth of cowhides, highest price

 

purchases in progess: 800k worth of cowhides

[xcowx]

Wow this has really started to turn into a big, developing thing! I'm going to start keeping tabs on this :o.

[yobob69]

I like them too :

[holycannoli]

Alright, I've returned again. I stopped for a couple days but I've returned.

 

 

 

I've got a big project going on ATM so I probably won't be able to give great detail in my posts like I have in the past right now. I haven't been doing much trading since I got back mainly because of this project.

 

 

 

The project is a book which I'm writing - actually, I've finished it and I'm editing. More information will come once it's finished.

 

 

 

Market Update

 

Ashes

 

I've noticed a trend in Ashes. The price fluctuates every couple of days between 3 and 4 GP. They're on the top 100 list for sales volume, but they might be hard to sell still. I know they're definitely hard to buy. You have to buy them at 3gp Each and sell them at 4gp each. I'm testing it out right now with my "practise money", which is at 860k right now. I should have over 1 mil if I succeed in buying for 3 and sellign for 4.

[holycannoli]

Update

 

Purchases: 280k Ashes, 3gp Ea

 

Cost and Cash left: Cost 860k, Cash 0gp

 

Expected Return: 1.15Mil

 

 

 

Market Update

 

Cowhides

 

If you have any cowhides now is the time to dump them, you can sell them before the price goes down further. I sold all of mine at 113 Ea, you should be able to get 112 Each, possibly a little lower since the price has started to decrease.

 

 

 

Lobster

 

If you happened to buy lobsters for some unknown reason, don't sell them. The price is far too low, it's best to wait until the next rise and sell them at a higher price so you make some money. Don't take a loss.

 

 

 

Mith Ores

 

Alot of ores are going down at the moment so hold out, and in a few days check the price. The should start to go up soon, so get a hold of some mith ores when the price evens out and wait until they increase to sell. Remember to sell when the price rise slows, as opposed to when the price evens out or when the price starts to drop. This will help make sure that your ores sell easily and you don't get stuck with them while the price keeps dropping.

 

 

 

Chaos Runes

 

Chaos runes have been taking an enormous fall, coming down to 109 from as high as 137. Keep an eye on them: A rise could be very profitable, since the price is around 109 right now even a rise of 11gp Ea means you'll make around 10% profit.

 

 

 

Flax (Members)

 

Flax has dropped severely, and is down to 82. If you see a rise in price up to 83 or higher, then get your hands on some flax and hold out until the price reaches 85 or higher. The highest in the last 30 days was 90gp ea, just to give you an indication of the max it could go, but keep in mind that price drops like this almost never go back up their 30 day high for at least a few cycles. There is no cycle going right now, so it's a bit unstable, so be careful around this one.

[yobob69]

I hope you succeed in your ashes experiment :thumbsup:

[holycannoli]

Thank you =)

 

 

 

I'm 99% sure it will work perfectly, but the trade volume each day is usually around 1mil so this trick will only work for low volume trades and profits of under 1mil. Not that 1mil is bad for 7 days when you don't even have to be there to make the money.

[Everyonedies]

what on earth are ashes even used for?

 

 

 

ok serum 207 and they now are used as food for the Phoenix (pet) and the Abyssal minion

[holycannoli]

yea. Herblore i believe and also for making glass vials I think. My hope is that the demand is big enough to sell these back at 4 each (I know I can sell them at 3 easily but I want 4).

[holycannoli]

The long awaited rise in the price of ashes has arrived, so we'll see if I can sell them at 4gp ea. If I do, then I've got 1.15 Mil. If I don't, then I sell them at 3 (lowest amrket price) and they'll sell in minutes, but I've made no money and I've lost a weeks worth of investing time.

[holycannoli]

update

 

Bought: 7899 cowhide, 105 Ea

 

Bought: Rune Sword, 12.5k

 

Expenses: Addamant Arrows, Rune Arrows, Iron Arrows: 30k

 

 

 

Charity: 17k (Gave to random people who lookedl ike they needed a gift) :

 

 

 

Expected return from Cowhides: 900k

 

Expected return from Sword: 12k

[yobob69]

Did the ash experiment work?

[holycannoli]

Unfortunately it didn't turn out very well. I was able to make about 40k, but in order to sell the rest of the ashes I had to lower the price to 3gp. It might work if I purcased for 2gp ea when market price was only 3gp ea, but I doubt it would be that simple. I wish it had turned out, but unfortunately it did not.

 

 

 

However...feathers sell quite easily, so I made be experiment with feathers soon.

 

 

 

Anyways...

 

 

 

Update

 

 

 

Cash before purchase: 940k (only 60k!)

 

Purchase in progress: 8951 cowhides, Approx. 940k gp, 105 each

 

Expected to sell for 111-115 each

 

 

 

I should have over the first Mil when this is done!

[holycannoli]

First Milestone

 

1 Million GP

 

 

 

I'm leaving for florida tomorrow so I may not be around for a few days. In case I'm not, peace.

 

 

 

 

 

Update

 

Cash before trade: 1050k (woo! 1 mil!)

 

Purchases in progress: 9900 Cowhides, 106 Ea (Approx. 1049k)

 

 

 

I fully expect to sell these for 112-115 or more. I'll put them on the Exchange at max price in case I leave before the price rises, though.

 

Often you can sell cowhides at max price, so I generally buy my limit over the day at market price and then re-sell at max. It's not playing the market prices because it's far too short-term, but it works to a certain degree.

 

 

 

I figured that now would be a good time to talk about making money. The first thing you have to know is that you need money to make money, or at least to make real money. You may have already guessed this based on my numbers. Let me put it in perspective with an example: 100k is not a whole lot to make in a day. If you invest 1Mil in something that is 100GP/Unit and then Resell those items when the price has risen at 110GP/Unit, you will have a profit margin of 10%. That's 100k. Now, this doesn't happen in a day. It happens over three-to-five days. Now it seems pretty low, doesn't it?

 

 

 

So let me show you what I mean when I say "You need money to make money." This is a rule that's true here as much as it is in the real world - you can't make much money investing unless you invest lots of money. Think about it - you will almost never get a 100% return, so if you invest $1000 then you aren't going to make $2000. It's the same in RS. If you invest 1Mil, you won't make 1Mil with a single investment. However, if you invest 10Mil, suddenly that small 10% profit margin doesn't mean 100k anymore. Now you've made 1Mil in as little as two-to-five days.

 

 

 

The trick is to persevere until you have enough money to make real money, and after than it's all uphill. It's a snowball effect. You invest 10Mil and you make 1Mil. You take your 11Mil, now, and you make 1.1Mil. When you reach 100Mil you'll be making 10Mil every two-to-five days. 100Mil seems pretty far fetched, but it's really not, especially if you're making between 1Mil and 5Mil every two-to-five days.

 

 

 

This is the reason people get discouraged when they try to merchant here on RS - if you make your first 1Mil and you're so escited that you spend it, then you've screwed up, because you've probably spent it on something hard to sell like Trimmed Armour and you're going to lose money on it. If you've only got 1Mil to play with, like I've got now, it will be difficult to make back any losses you might incur. The simplest thing is to just hold on to your money and resist the temptation to spend it until you can snowball it into at least 10Mil. If you've made it to 10Mil, then spend 1Mil; 9Mil will still return 900k on a 10% increase.

 

 

 

Anyways, that's my piece. I'll write another little bit shorty about what to do when you've got lots of money to invest with, probably when I've passed the 5Mil mark (which isn't a huge amount but it will give you a good picture of some Do's and Don'ts. Have a great march break everybody (if you live somewhere you have march break right now, possibly reading week). Peace.

[Pinkbullet3]

I wrote a thread in the Help & Advice forum and I was wondering if you could check it out: viewtopic.php?f=12&t=786468

 

 

 

It concerns yew prices and the price of green h'ween masks.

 

 

 

Thanks a bunch. :)

[Pinkbullet3]

[hide=]

I can't say about the mask (I'm assuming that the price drop is for masks is good for you so hopefully it sticks for a while until you can buy your mask), but I'm fairly confident that yews will go back up. It might take two weeks, but yews have a pretty constant demand so I'd say the price should head back up. They usually work like clockwork - up, stablilze, down, stabilize, up, etc. In fact, judging from the graphs you've put up, it looks like they've stopped the drop and may start to rise already - it probably won't reach the price it was at this rise, unless something is really screwing with the prices (mass clan merching, for example). If the logs start to drop now, after the price has levelled off, then I might say you should worry a bit because it probably means people will be getting rid of all of their logs in a hurry since the price is going down (think of it like a stock market crash - prices go down so people panic and sell their stock, which only pushes the price down further).

 

 

 

I can't say anything in stone because I've been wrong before, but I hope this was at least a bit helpful. :?

[/hide]

 

Thanks for your reply. Seems like a lot of people have said that the yew prices will go back up (and like you mentioned, maybe after 1-2 weeks), so I've got some hope now.

 

 

 

:)

[SwreeTak]

That was quite a nice idea to make this blog. I have read through it now and learnt a little more about merchanting. Thank you very much for sharing tips like these, it sure is helpful. Good luck on getting those 10M!

[holycannoli]

lol no worries pink

 

 

 

And thx! I think it helps, if I've helped one person then this blog will have been worth making.

 

 

 

Also...

 

 

 

I've got 1111k ATM.

[yobob69]

Gratz on the 1m mil, i only have 500k :?

[holycannoli]

Ello everybody, I have returned. I'm exhausted so there probably won't be a market update for a day or two. I'm up to 1186k right now, almost entirely from the investment project. I'm slowing down a bit on this because it's not a priority for me ATM, sorry but RL comes first, but I'll still be doing regular market updates and updates on what I've achieved. When I say slowing down I mean I'll be updating my trades less often and my market updates will probably be a bit more concise. Peace for now.

[holycannoli]

Market Update

 

 

 

Oak Logs

 

Oak logs have gone down to 27 Gp Each which means you should watch for the price to level off. If it does, then you should start buying logs and put them on the GE at max price. This is a bit of a risky endeavor but the profit will be quite large if you can manage it.

 

 

 

Cowhides

 

Ah, cowhides. The ever popular cowhides...cowhides are like bagels. Anyways, they're high right now so don;t bother buying. However if you want to skim a bit of cash off the top, you can buy them for market price and sell them at the highest price. This should make you a bit of cash especially if you've got over 1Mil cash to play with. I've been doing it and I should be up to 1.3Mil when my next trade is completed - and I haven't been playing very much.

 

 

 

Chaos Runes

 

Chaos runes are on the rise, but don't expect them to go much higher.

 

 

 

Yew Seed

 

If you're a member then you should be buying as many yew seeds as you can get your hands on. But them at a little bit hgiher than market price and wait for three-to-five days until the price goes up (it should go up from 70.6k to 77k or higher) and then sell them at market price before the price levels off (when there is still some demand for them).

 

 

 

Druidic mage bottom 0

 

You should be buying these for two reason:

 

1) The prict chart indicates that the price will rise, so buy them and sell them off in the near future

 

2) *They are being clan merched so the price will definitely increase. This means, however, that you have to sell yours earlier so that you're selling to the clan merchants - you want them to get stuck with them (they;re buying them out at maz price), not you, so sell when the demand is high. The dump price is 7k.

 

 

*I do not believe clan merching is a good way to make money, so I am not participating in this. For the purpose of my merchanting experiment the profits will solely be from playing the market using natural increases and decreases in price. You, however, are free to do as you wish. Sicne the dump price on the Druidic mage bottoms 0 is 7k, you should sell at 6k. That're more than a 10% increase, plus you can hold it a bit longer if you want, and the price should increase quite quickly because of the clan merching.

 

 

 

EDIT: Up to 1.3 Mil. Hopefully be up to 2Mil by the end of the week and then the increases will finally start spiralling upwards at a faster rate.

[holycannoli]

Sorry, I quit for a while. May not do any posts past this one, but I'm in the mood to do one now so here we go.

 

The market has changed a reasonable amount since I was last here, but I started investing again two days ago for the first time since my last post and I'm up to 1.6mil. I hope to reach 2mil soon. The more money you have, the more you make.

 

 

Cowhides

 

Cowhides is currently the only thing I'm investing in, because I know it will be a safe investment. Of course, buy them at your own risk, but I've got all 1.6mil in cowhides right now and hopefully they'll go up tomorrow. I'm buying at market price and them immediately dumping them back onto the grand exchange tomorrow at MAX price. Don't buy anything you're investing in at less than market price - it pushes the price down. In my case it's insignificant because I'm only buying 1.6mil worth at 221 each, and the total trade volume for today is over 9mil. However, it's good practice to not buy anything below mid, simply because if everybody gets in the habit of it then investments will start to fail.

 

 

I'm sure most of you don't remember me because a stopped posting way back in march. So, here's something to keep in mind while investing that I may or may not have posted and you may or may not have read:

 

When you're buying something en masse, look for items which you can't immediately buy for market price, but you can buy at market price if you leave the offer up for a while. These tend to be good items. Not always, but often enough for me to think it worth mentioning. Why? People are impatient. Often when people want to buy something, they want to buy it fast. They'll go to the market and offer market price. When it doesn't fly, they'll immediately take their offer down and offer the maximum price. This is good for you, because all of these impatient people on every single server buying the item at max price over and over pushes up the price. And? It's selling at max price, so you'll be able to sell the items you bought very easily. Great success!

 

A couple more things for those who are new to this. Watch the price charts (somewhere in this thread I'm sure I've posted about that, maybe on the first post). Follow price rises and drops. Don't buy an item if it's dropping, but it if the price is leveling off. Now, wait for it to start to rise before you buy. Only once - if it rises again you can still make money, but you're better off going with the first day of price rises. Then you're sure it will rise. Sometimes prices level off, then continue to drop instead of going back up.

 

Lastly, watch the trade volume. "What? Trade volume? What's that?"

 

It's actually pretty simple - it's the amount an item is being traded, and it updated daily. You can find it by going to the ge price charts page and clicking "view trade info" in the top right corner of the price change list (not of the page, of the price change list!). It isn't like the price changes - you get a value each day, not a chart. Watch the changes in volume, and you can see trends of buying and selling at work. Cowhides, for example, have a trade volume of over 9mil today. Yesterday it was 8mil - increase in sales means the price will most likely rise because the demand is higher. HOWEVER, watch out for clan merching. An item which is being clan merched can have a sudden increase in trade volume because everybody has been holding onto their items, and then they all dump at once. The price won't go up - it'll go down, because the exchange is now flooded with the item and they're being sold at market price or lower (because everybody wants their items to sell fast - selling below market price pushes the price down, and the investment flops).

 

And that's all for now. Peace!

[yobob69]

Nice post after such a long time. :thumbsup: