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Paging Dr. Markov...


Orioles8

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Also, a couple responses came dangerously close to a religious/antireligous remark. Please don't get my thread locked!

 

 

 

Most people need an anchor to support their beliefs. It's not everyone that's willing to analyze through statistics and mathematics the machanics of this game. Making up fairy tales is a lot faster and simpler to actually look for a real answer.

 

 

 

Woah, really? I'm taking my Anchor to GWD every time now. Thanks!! :thumbsup:

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Also, a couple responses came dangerously close to a religious/antireligous remark. Please don't get my thread locked!

 

 

 

Most people need an anchor to support their beliefs. It's not everyone that's willing to analyze through statistics and mathematics the machanics of this game. Making up fairy tales is a lot faster and simpler to actually look for a real answer.

 

 

 

Woah, really? I'm taking my Anchor to GWD every time now. Thanks!! :thumbsup:

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Woah, really? I'm taking my Anchor to GWD every time now. Thanks!!

 

 

 

Don't forget to get it repaired first!

langerkiller.png

 

Follow the progress of top players and my weekly updates here: 200M in all Skills

Latest Milestones Chart update : page 602

Latest top 15 update : page 602

6 slowest skills chart : page 563

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Woah, really? I'm taking my Anchor to GWD every time now. Thanks!!

 

 

 

Don't forget to get it repaired first!

langerkiller.png

 

Follow the progress of top players and my weekly updates here: 200M in all Skills

Latest Milestones Chart update : page 602

Latest top 15 update : page 602

6 slowest skills chart : page 563

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LSP is the same.

 

 

 

Lookup "lootshare" in the KB.

 

 

 

Basically, when someone gets the drop, everyone else's points increase by the same amount so that the next drop will more likely belong to the other person. If it was split, then a high amount of people would amass almost no LSP. It simply makes no sense that the larger the gorup the less LSP matters.

 

 

 

Also, LSP isin't given that high. LSP degrades at a rate of 1%.

 

No, LSP is evenly distributed.

 

How does the LootShare system ensure 'fairness'?

 

 

 

When an item is dropped, its value is calculated using the Grand Exchange. Each player is given a 'virtual' share of that value in LootShare points. The system then chooses a player to receive the drop. The system looks at the points for all players in the group and whoever has the most LootShare points stands the greatest chance of getting the drop.

 

The amount of LSP a player will receive is the value of the drop divided by the number of players lootsharing. If everyone got LSP equal to the value of the drop, and not just a fraction of it, then anyone who has missed a divine would be able to get about 10 hilts at GWD before their LSP even get close to 0. LS is completely equal to CS, but rather than getting the coins now, you get them later.

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  • 3 weeks later...

I think the problem is that a lot of people don't understand how probability works....

 

Jagex once explained how they calculate drops (to show the influence of the ring of wealth):

There are basically 2 wheels: one for normal drops and one for special drops.

On the normal wheel, there's an outcome that will spin the special drops wheel.

Ring of wealth increased the chance of getting that special drop outcome.

(etc.)

 

I know this is kinda outdated (with charms being dropped and all), but the basic idea has most likely stayed the same. Therefore it's safe to assume they use the time (or rather the milliseconds) at which the monster dies to calculate the drop (this is used a lot in programming, because it is considered random). Which means you can't be due for a drop ...

Everybody knows that the chance of throwing a 6 with a dice is 1/6. Well, even if you've thrown 10 times not 6 before, that doesn't change your chance of the next throw having a 6. The same is true for drops: if the chance is 1/100, it doesn't matter if you've been killing for 4 hours, or if you just arrived.

 

Each kill has to be considered separately.

 

 

Also:

LS is completely equal to CS, but rather than getting the coins now, you get them later.

Wrong: CS sells item for lowest on GE. This means you lose 10% as opposed to get it with LS...

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You're talking about this Dr. Markov, right?

 

111.jpg

 

Yeah, those mind-control abilities probably have something to do with it. All the more reason to end the tyranny of the Vampyres in Morytania--I bet they're in league with Sorin to spread evil rumors. Down with Drakan! Free Meiyerditch!

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  • 1 month later...

Tbh I think even ROW is a load of rubbish. Got ALL my drops..ever..from using Zerker rings/Archer rings ect.

136 Combat :: Jjozzie :: 2000 Total

99 Slayer - 99 Summoning - 92 Herblore - 82 Prayer

64m Attack - 25m Strength - 17m Defence - 20m Range - 44m Hp - 20m Magic

 

:: Bandos ::

*Solo* - 3 Hilts - 2 Chestplates - 2 Tassets - 1 Boots - 6 Shards

*Duo - 8 Hilts - 6 Chestplates - 6 Tassets - 4 Boots - 14 Shards

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  • 1 month later...

You're talking about this Dr. Markov, right?

 

111.jpg

 

Yeah, those mind-control abilities probably have something to do with it. All the more reason to end the tyranny of the Vampyres in Morytania--I bet they're in league with Sorin to spread evil rumors. Down with Drakan! Free Meiyerditch!

 

Haha no. Actually it was a reference to the Russian mathematician who came up with the idea of Markov Chains. Markov Chains are a sequence in which each value (in this case what drop you get) is entirely independant of all other values.

 

As for Sorin Markov, 3BBB is utterly uncastable in any deck except mono-B Vamps, and that deck has so many issues already that it cant bother waiting around for a questionably good 6-drop thats just gotta bite it to Celestial Purge anyways. If I'm gonna shell out 3BBB at sorcery speed for something it ought to basically win me the game (Cruel Ultimatum I'm looking at you) before I consider running it.

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*~72,749th to 99 Attack on 9 September 2009~*

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As for Sorin Markov, 3BBB is utterly uncastable in any deck except mono-B Vamps, and that deck has so many issues already that it cant bother waiting around for a questionably good 6-drop thats just gotta bite it to Celestial Purge anyways. If I'm gonna shell out 3BBB at sorcery speed for something it ought to basically win me the game (Cruel Ultimatum I'm looking at you) before I consider running it.

Sorin has seen some play, actually. Most recently, he showed up as a singleton in a Grixis control deck that Top 8'd the Starcity Games 5k in Los Angeles last weekend. (The deck ran one of him over a fourth Ultimatum.) Other Grixis control decks have been doing the same thing. (Source) Sorin is an absolute house if you can land him--he can easily win the game for you once he comes out. (And he's obviously brutal in EDH.)

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As for Sorin Markov, 3BBB is utterly uncastable in any deck except mono-B Vamps, and that deck has so many issues already that it cant bother waiting around for a questionably good 6-drop thats just gotta bite it to Celestial Purge anyways. If I'm gonna shell out 3BBB at sorcery speed for something it ought to basically win me the game (Cruel Ultimatum I'm looking at you) before I consider running it.

Sorin has seen some play, actually. Most recently, he showed up as a singleton in a Grixis control deck that Top 8'd the Starcity Games 5k in Los Angeles last weekend. (The deck ran one of him over a fourth Ultimatum.) Other Grixis control decks have been doing the same thing. (Source) Sorin is an absolute house if you can land him--he can easily win the game for you once he comes out. (And he's obviously brutal in EDH.)

 

Read the decklist... it's interesting. Not sure how I feel about the courier's capsules, especially when he could get another divination or a Jace instead for LESS overall mana. But hey, he Top 8'd the 5k, so who am I to talk? *cough*lucksack*cough*

 

 

In EDH however, he is brutal. As are many other cards you wouldn't run in a "conventional" constructed deck. Which is why it's an awesome format. :-)

Orioles8.png asciibacon.jpg

Orioles8.png

mostorganized2.jpg

*~72,749th to 99 Attack on 9 September 2009~*

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