Question about stewing

[parthenorius]

Simple question :

to have the highest chance for a +2 boost, do I add 1, 2 or 3 doses of spice ?

[essal]

1 dose = +2/-2 boost

2 dose = +4/-4 boost etc.

etc. etc.

[TheAncient]

P(At least 1 +2 boost among 3 1-dose stews) = 1 - (4/5)^3 = 48.8%

P(At least 1 +2 boost among 1 2-dose stew and 1 1-dose stew) = 1 - (2/3)(4/5) = 46.7%

P(At least 1 +2 boost among 1 3-dose stew) = 36% (from RSwiki)

 

Therefore, if you have 3 doses of spice and don't mind drinking 3 separate stews, your best bet is to use 3 1-dose stews. You'll have about a 49% chance of success.

 

But, if you only want to drink one stew, your best bet is obviously the 3-dose stew.

[Will H]

Just one dose. Similarly, if you want a +4 boost, then a 2 dose stew is the best option.

[parthenorius]

Thanks for the responses, everyone.

 

The way I see it, every dose has 5 possible outcomes (-2, -1, 0, +1, +2).

 

What I was unsure about is whether these outcomes are all equally likely.

For example, it could be that a boost by 1 (either way) has twice the chance of occuring than a boost by 2.

In that case, it might be better to use 2 doses.

 

I'm no mathematician, but I take it the formula TheAncient gave (from RSwiki) means all 5 outcomes are equally likely.

 

Thanks again ! (I must just have been unlucky with the stews I tried.)

[uzi0espil]

i agree with will_holmes

 

and yeh you might be unlucky with your stews you tried

 

as i hope you to get over this problem ^^

[Smapla]

last time i wanted just a +2 boost i had horrible luck getting it on just one dose and gave up. now i just use three doses all the time >_>

 

 

something to consider is that you basically can't get a +6 boost from 3 doses anymore

[parthenorius]

Ok, I think this is more than bad luck.

 

I've now tried 20 1-dose stews without getting a +2 boost in the skill I wanted.

 

Maybe the formula at RSwiki isnt accurate (anymore) ?

 

Did they change it overtime so that a +1 boost is a more likely result than a +2 ?

 

I'll switch to 2-dose stews and post results.

 

 

Edit : As I wrote that, I tried a 3-dose stew and got the +2 I wanted.

[Assume Nothing]

Ok, I think this is more than bad luck.

 

I've now tried 20 1-dose stews without getting a +2 boost in the skill I wanted.

 

Maybe the formula at RSwiki isnt accurate (anymore) ?

 

Did they change it overtime so that a +1 boost is a more likely result than a +2 ?

 

I'll switch to 2-dose stews and post results.

 

 

Edit : As I wrote that, I tried a 3-dose stew and got the +2 I wanted.

 

The chance of getting 'at least' a level is much greater than getting the exact level