OMG Rares, an explanation not be heeded

[primadog]

To me the rares market is as unexplainable as it is unpredictable.

 

 

 

 

 

How is it unpredictable?

 

 

 

The price of rares are generally upwards, and overall at a predictable growth rate -- see Duke_freedom's old Tipit Times article and R2pleasant's predictions to see how well they match up.

 

 

 

The essence is: in long term, rares will rise in price. You can buy one, leave it for a half a year, and expect its value to double -- that's long term investment. If your rare does not rise after half a year, I'll pay you the difference.

 

 

 

In the short term, however, rare prices fluctuate. It may rise rapidly in a few days, caused by (1) ban & quit (2) organized price manipulation (3) JaGex (4) increase amount of GP in circulation, or it may drop at a slow rate because (1) returned me chanters (2) me chanterÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s need to drop the goods (3) rapid rise from earlier (2) lack of gp in circulation .

 

 

 

Here's a summary of what happened in the past month. For about 2-3 months, rares have been in a steady, slow decline(1) after the big January hike. All the merchants were worried about the prices will continue decline, leading to a decrease in capital (lost in profit) and continue to sell their goods at lower-and-lower price, which in turn lead to further decline.

 

 

 

On May 07th, 2006, Duke_freedom announced his ban (1), and along with him the RS economy lost "200 Santa hats, 200 pumpkins, 20 mask sets, 1 phat set, 3 half wines, 450mil pure gp." This fueled a sudden rise in the value of rares, thus the prices of rares jumped. Furthermore, merchants see that there's profit in rares again, so they all rush to buy rares, doubly increase the price of rares.

 

 

 

What will happen:

 

price of rares will not rise forever. After a week or so, they prices will stabilize again, follow by leveling off, then a slow and steady decline. If you're interested in investing in rares, DO NOT buy now. Wait for a month or two after the prices have to been sluggish and appears to be waiting for another event to pump the prices back up.

 

 

 

 

 

DISCLAIMER: Primadog is a old, insane Scaper who has no clue what heÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s talking about. Do not trust a word he says. He does not have a financial interest in the rares market, ie heÃÆââââ¬Å¡Ã¬Ã¢ââ¬Å¾Ã¢s too poor/ indifferent to own a rare.

[PkMARIO]

OOk... ._.

[I_Cr4ck_Pk3r_I]

Well, they're unpredictable because, what if someone had 50 phats and was banned? Just think, that's unpredictable.

[Sephiroth576]

Yeah, this is exactly the reason why I don't even bother with rares anymore. They're always on the rise, and even when they stabilize for a few weeks the prices are just outrageous.

 

 

 

I guess I'm just more interested in spending my money on raising skills rather than looking filthy rich.

[Bubsa]

I'd say it's unpredictable because no-one knows, for certain, how many party hats remain in RuneScape. Fact.

[Duke_Freedom]

I don't get why anti-rares people always create "do not buy rares" topics at the weirdest times... Namely, when the prices of rares didn't go up for 2 months already and are now (naturally) finally increasing again.

 

 

 

Furthermore, rares were already increasing slightly again before my ban, so if anything, it only speedened the process a bit.

[primadog]

Did I say Rares are bad, so do not buy? No, I say it may be in your best interest to not buy at this moment

 

 

 

that's all.

[azntemplar_00]

Interesting theory prima... but won't there'll always be people who'll spread rumors just to drive the price up? If Jagex continues releasing new items at a steady rate, perhaps some of the rares economy will be shifted towards the newer items.

[Mementh]

what i want to know is why duke freedom was so freaking stupid to do somethign that got banned!!!!!

 

 

 

 

 

Also i think that there should be announcment stating that rares would be declared non tradable. Those that have them will be given X cash based on current market prices.. then a "rare store" will open up in the POH area selling immitations of them. This is not fare i know!!!!

 

 

 

its not right... i know..

 

 

 

why do i say this... merchants need to stop handeling rares and start handeling all items.. they inflate the items to such a ammount that only if your in the top 1% of wealth then you can own them..

 

 

 

i don't belive it shoud be like that anymore..

 

 

 

At worst make a "final count" of all rares.. and make it so that if a account is banned the rares are stripped from the account and put in the store

 

if a person dies it goes to the store if its not picked up...

 

 

 

but have the store stock randomly (not in conjuction with the deaths) and at a higher price (enough so that people are not loosing there value..

 

 

 

 

 

Thats all i have to say about that

[ishepp]

Think I saw this in the other topic where I wrote that sentence.

 

 

 

To me the rares market is as unexplainable as it is unpredictable.

 

What I wrote is entirely correct. I personally have no idea when the rare prices will jump or drop. Maybe thats why I don't merchant rares.

 

In february/march, the price of santas was rising fast, 4.5mil up to 7.7mil when I was watching. I had always wanted a santa hat, and obviously I didn't want to pay huge amounts for one, but I decided to sell a lot of stuff to get 7.7mil and bought one. Prices went up more, so I thought it was a good decision. Then they steadied, started dropping below what I paid. Not to worry, I knew they would rise in the long term. And sure enough, this last week, I see around 3mil rise in price.

 

 

 

To me, this is unpredictable IN THE SHORT TERM. Also unexplicable. I can only fling wild guesses as to the cause of a rise or fall in price. How was I to forsee that this week an item would increase in value by almost 50%.

 

 

 

Those who CAN predict short term increase/decrease are the ones who will make millions in a short amount of time.

 

 

 

It is more or less irrelevant for me now anyway, as the single santa hat I own will not be sold, nor do I anticipate spending money on another rare.

 

 

 

Just out of interest, why are there two topics discussing this? You posted exactly the same thing.

[Aus_Fighter]

I'd say it's unpredictable because no-one knows, for certain, how many party hats remain in RuneScape. Fact.

 

 

 

I agree.. I lost 7 P hats when i got banned.. Plus other rares :oops:

[Rock Hard]

what i want to know is why duke freedom was so freaking stupid to do somethign that got banned!!!!!

 

 

 

Because RL > RS.

 

 

 

 

 

Also i think that there should be announcment stating that rares would be declared non tradable. Those that have them will be given X cash based on current market prices.. then a "rare store" will open up in the POH area selling immitations of them. This is not fare i know!!!!

 

 

 

its not right... i know..

 

 

 

why do i say this... merchants need to stop handeling rares and start handeling all items.. they inflate the items to such a ammount that only if your in the top 1% of wealth then you can own them..

 

 

 

i don't belive it shoud be like that anymore..

 

 

 

At worst make a "final count" of all rares.. and make it so that if a account is banned the rares are stripped from the account and put in the store

 

if a person dies it goes to the store if its not picked up...

 

 

 

but have the store stock randomly (not in conjuction with the deaths) and at a higher price (enough so that people are not loosing there value..

 

 

 

 

 

Thats all i have to say about that

 

 

 

I don't really think thats an answer. What your describing is called communism. And It doesn't work in practicality.

 

 

 

What if IRL they decided that it wasn't fair for only the rich to have swimming pools, they should all be destroyed and the rich should be made to live in trailer parks, for equality's sake.

 

 

 

Personally I think that'd be pretty silly.

 

 

 

-Gid.

[Zonhottie]

the only way to get prices to drop, get rid of rares or put less money in circulation to stop the infaltion..

[primadog]

 

Just out of interest, why are there two topics discussing this? You posted exactly the same thing.

 

 

 

Yes, this is a repost, but people don't visit the help forum as often and I'd like to foster some discussion.

 

 

 

I do believe it's possible to predict short-term, at-least partially. I expect in the next week or so, the prices will level off. We'll see how it goes.