OLD Barrows Drop Rate, Finally Resolved!

[lavaownz]

thanks for the info, but I still don't uderstand why in +-100 runs (not quite sure) I only got 6 items (3 barrows, 2 half, 1 d med)... Stll upset

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But anyway, great guide you obviusly spent lots of time on this!

[primadog]

Let's see if we can come to an agreement, silver.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If it were random as you said, getting less then 19 drops in 300 chests doesn't prove it wrong, that can happen with random drops, maybe if it were less then 190 out of 3000 or even better less then 1900 out of 30.000 then you might get near a real average.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Even though the drop rate is random, there's still certain things you can say about the amount of drops you get. For example, if you're making a green dragon run, you'll probably get more gp drops than clue drops. Now let's say green dragons drop gp half the time ( 50%) and clues drops 1%. if you killed 100 dragons, you'll probably expect more gp drops than clue drops. Furthermore, you'll probably more likely to to see between 40 to 60 grops of gp than 0 to 10 drops of drop, or 1 clue drop than 100 clue drops (assuming you done each clue).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now there's a way in statistics to measure just 'how likely' 40 to 60 drops of gp is going to be, compare to 0 to 10 drops. I won't go into the details, you can find it here.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What I meant from that part you quoted is if you done 300 drops, the average drop should be 30 items (this is the average value, aka expected value or mean), with a standard deviation of 5.5. This means there's a 95% chance ( 2 standard deviation from mean) to have drops between 19 to 41 items. Since there's only 5% chance to be beyond that range, below 19 drops or above 41 drops is good reason to say that my hypothesis of the drop rate to be 10% to be wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But on your main theory, this makes no sense, and especially the "second wheel thing" the way you explain the chances

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What you said regarding the second wheel is completely true. The second wheel portion is still speculation, mainly because I can't find a good formula that I am satisfied with.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Of course, having more runs would be give us more accurate data, thus better estimate of the drop rate, but looking at the # of previous experiments that stopped midway , I can only take what i can find and what people's willing to spare (thanks mattyb3!).

[mbrun]

I just started a log of barrows runs. I have done 3 runs with over 20 KC. Will post the results when I get twenty runs.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Average:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

80 Deaths, 300 Minds, 37 Bolt racks, 43 bloods. 130 chaos, 800 gp

[silver24-7]

prima even if you apply standard deviation, it'll still only work if you actually get enough runs done to really get accurate results.

 

 

 

We all know that when you throw dices 7 is a more common number to throw then 5. Yet if I throw the dices 5 times, and I threw no 7s but I did throw 2 5s that doesnt mean 7 isn't the most common number.

 

 

 

And well glad you admitted that the second wheel thingy was just guessing, now just try to get enough logs to work on a real drop rate, but as I said you would need AT LEAST 3000 runs to get anywhere near an accurate result.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

good luck with that, ohw and composing a large log of many small logs from different players will provide you with wrong rates, because many people start or stop logging at certain times, like as soon as they get X barrows items, so the last drop will often be this extra barrows item and therefore droprates will seem higher then they are. anyways, once again, good luck I really would like to know an accurate droprate and what affects it.