primadog Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Requesting more barrow logs /w kc! Premise: Barrows drop is not rare, nor is it affected by kc, time spent, or style, with evidence. Summary 6 brothers = 6 drops, the chest holds all the drops. each drop has 1/60 chance to be barrows item. If not barrows/d med/half key, the drop can be the following: |~300 mind | ~150 chaos | ~75 death | ~50 blood | ~35 bolt | ~500 gp 6-7 KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 8 KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 9+ KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 Myth: Barrow drops are rare. FALSE Evidence: the average rate for barrows items is 1 per 10 trips, or 1/60 for each barrows brother. This is assuming you kill all six brothers. ref: (only counting barrows drops as for now) my own data 12 out of 122 trips 9.7% 19-20-574-40948124 4 out of 45 trips 8.9% 19-20-272-39981415 13 out of 162 trips 8.0% 19-20-685-40892430 8 out of 72 trips 11.1% 19-20-605-34726195 35 out of 360 trips 9.7% 19-20-626-25865127 14 out of 140 trips 10% 19-20-516-35296675 25 out of 382 trips 6.5% mc90123's log 9 out of 204 trips 4.4% --------------------------------------------- total: 120 out of 1487 : 8.07% (requesting more barrow log counts) acceptable range: 120 +/- 24 (at 95%) expected at 1/60: 148.7 items Acceptable as for now? YES! but barely Myth: Drop rate depends on kc(kill count)/method/time taken. FALSE Evidence: look at the above examples, the drop rate is incredibily steady, regardless of personal style. Myth: You can't figure out the chances. FALSE Chances: Each brother you kill give you one drop (clones don't count). You get maximum of 6 separate drops from the six brothers you kill. If the drop isn't a barrows or half key or d med, then it is dropped by the following ratio: |~300 mind | ~150 chaos | ~75 death | ~50 blood | ~35 bolt | ~500 gp 6-7 KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 8 KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 9+ KC | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 ie, if you have 8KC, you have 1/7 chance to get ~300 minds, ~150 chaos, ~75 deaths, ~50 bloods, and 3/7 chance to get ~500 gold for each brother you killed, assuming you didn't get a barrows drop. Evidence: 1) Look at my drop log, Looking at the default values and compare to each drop, you will notice that every single one of them can be counted as six different drops by the six different brothers. Example: Trip 57 Loot- 299 mind, 37 bolt, 1010 gp, 128 chaos, 70 death From this data and looking at the average drop table, we can conclude that the brothers had 1 mind rune drop, 1 bolt racks drop, 2 gp drop, 1 chaos rune drop, and 1 death rune drop ( 1+1+2+1+1 = 6 brothers! ). 2) Looking at the drop summary from my blog: From only 72 trips ( or 72 * 6 = 432 drops), look at how close that resembles the drop rates I posted above. 14007 Mind rune / ~300 = 46.69 / 432 drops = 10.8% 7629 Chaos rune / ~150 = 50.86 / 432 drops = 11.7% 4217 Death rune / ~75 = 56.23 / 432 drops = 13.0 % 2399 Blood rune / ~50 = 47.98 / 432 drops = 11.1 % 2672 Bolt racks / ~35 = 76.34 / 432 drops = 17.7 % 71256 Gp / ~500 = 142.51 / 432 drops = 33.0 % 7 barrows = 7 / 432 drops = 1.6% 1 half key = 1 3) Add up the drop counts from above: 46.69+50.86+56.23+47.98+76.34+142.51+7+1=428.61 ie 428 drops This is data from 72 trials, so I killed 72 * 6 = 432 drops 429 v. 432, pretty close for something random, isn't it? 4) Summary of data from other players, summarized by KC alone: The data is rather quite large and complicated. The basic idea is in random variables the average value approaches expected value, so if we have average a large number of chest drops based on KC, we can expect the average chest drop to be similar in ratio to that we expect (as above). The summary of chest drop by KC using beechworth, mattb3, and my data: http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/OutputSum.htm . The more runs we have at a particular kc, the closer is it to the ratio we expect. If we group the KC by 6-7, 8, or 9+, the relationship is ever clearer: The ratios are very clear now. BOTTOM LINE: WHAT THE CHEST HOLDS IS NOT AFFECTED BY KC**, TIME SPENT, METHOD! *In case you're wondering why the sum is not 100%, here's the details: There's a 1/10 chance that you can get a chance to get a rare drop. This is called a 'rare drop wheel' or a second 'wheel' (my current data is that detailed enough for me to decipher the drop rate of this second wheel. Thus, all of below are SPECULATION! If you can link me to more data, it will be very helpful) 1/10 rare drop wheel as follow: any of the 24 barrow pieces ~1/200? d med ~1/200? half key ~7/200? ------------------------- 1/200 * 24 + 1 / 200 + 7 / 200 = 33 / 200 = 1 / 6 Thus, a rare drop has a 1/6 * 1/ 10 = 1/ 60 chance The rest of the rare drop wheel is equivalent to the normal drop ratio: 300 MIND 1 : 150 CHAOS 1 : 75 DEATH 1 : 50 BLOOD 1 : 35 BOLTS 1 : 500 GP 1 **One interesting calculation we can do: we can find the average worth of a chest at 6-7 KC, 8, or 9+. mind runes - 20 gp chaos runes - 135 gp death runes - 300 gp blood runes - 550 gp bolt racks - 330 gp 6-7 KC: 1/7 * 300 * 20 + 1/7 * 150 * 135 + 1/7 * 75 * 300 + 4/7 * 500 8 KC: 1/7 * 300 * 20 + 1/7 * 150 * 135 + 1/7 * 75 * 300 + 1/7 * 50 * 550 + 3/7 * 500 9+ KC: 1/7 * 300 * 20 + 1/7 * 150 * 135 + 1/7 * 75 * 300 + 1/7 * 50 * 550 + 1/7 * 35 * 330 + 2/7 * 500 6-7 KC: 7250 * 6 = 43500 8 KC: 11107 * 6 = 66642 9+ KC: 12686 * 6 = 76116 All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted March 26, 2007 Author Share Posted March 26, 2007 converted the three main data files i used into spreadsheet in case someone else want to give the data a try: http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/beechworth.xls http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/mattyb3.xls http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/newbiei.xls LOG as evidence: others used for summary purposes: 19-20-574-40948124 4 out of 45 trips 19-20-272-39981415 13 out of 162 trips 19-20-685-40892430 8 out of 72 trips 19-20-605-34726195 35 out of 360 trips 19-20-626-25865127 14 out of 140 trips Newbiei Detail: http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/blog/newbiei.txt This is newbiei's barrow log, ouput on Thu Mar 29 04:38:33 2007 Total Trips: 112 Total Worth: 14135072 gp || Average per trip: 126206 gp || Average per hour: 575064 gp Total Time Spent: 24.58 hours || Average per trip: 13.17 min ~~~~ =============Summary============= 27851 Mind rune 13615 Chaos rune 6298 Death rune 2988 Blood rune 2779 Bolt racks 127756 Gp 2 Guthans helm 1 Dharoks platelegs 1 Torags helm 1 Torags hammers 1 Ahrims robetop 2 Ahrims staff 2 Karils crossbow 1 Karils leathertop 1 Karils coif 14135072 value 1 Half key 112 run ~~~~ beechworth's blog, origin: 19,20,516,35296675 Detail: http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/BLog/beechworth.txt This is beechworth's barrow log, ouput on Mon Mar 26 13:10:59 2007 Total Trips: 379 Total Worth: 46845999 gp || Average per trip: 123604 gp || Average per hour: 292787494 gp ~~~~ =============Summary============= 46845999 value 379 run 1 Guthans platebody 3 Veracs helm 2 Veracs brassard 1 Veracs flail 1 Veracs plateskirt 1 Dharoks greataxe 2 Dharoks platebody 1 Dharoks helm 1 Dharoks platelegs 3 Torags hammers 1 Ahrims robeskirt 1 Karils crossbow 1 Karils leatherskirt 3 Karils coif 2 Dragon med helm 15 Half key 94917 Mind rune 40933 Chaos rune 27811 Death rune 13645 Blood rune 12076 Bolt racks 356250 Gp ~~~~ mc90123's barrow log, based on his post on the second page Detail: http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/BLog/mc90123.txt This is mc90123's barrow log, ouput on Mon Mar 26 14:17:22 2007 Total Trips: 204 Total Worth: 29739797 gp || Average per trip: 145783 gp || Average per hour: 1486989850 gp ~~~~ =============Summary============= 29739797 value 204 run 1 Guthans warspear 2 Guthans helm 2 Veracs flail 1 Torags platebody 1 Torags helm 1 Ahrims robeskirt 1 Ahrims hood 4 Dragon med helm 11 Half key 51937 Mind rune 22406 Chaos rune 12574 Death rune 7192 Blood rune 6851 Bolt racks 202617 Gp ~~~~ mattyb3's blog from post http://www.nd.edu/~xhong/runescape/BLog/mattyb3.txt This is mattyb3's barrow log, ouput on Tue Mar 27 11:06:15 2007 Total Trips: 73 Total Worth: 6196807 gp || Average per trip: 84888 gp || Average per hour: 619680700 gp Total Time Spent: 0.01 hours || Average per trip: 0 min ~~~~ =============Summary============= 6196807 value 73 run 1 Ahrims robeskirt 2 Ahrims hood 18934 Mind rune 10302 Chaos rune 5772 Death rune 1473 Blood rune 966 Bolt racks 91827 Gp ~~~~ All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jemathonical Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Nice :) I love that blog too, lots of effort ^Sir Jem 05-The Bunny Drinking Blog?^ Click it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dude_of_war4 Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 what jema said click my sig for my blog!!!Thanks everyone for the sigs they pwn!No. Why should i give presents for someone in rs?Most selfish thing I've ever heard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meb Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Almost 300 chests, not even close to 30 items. I don't thnk it's very accurate. Retired 2146 overall - 136 combat - 6 skillcapes Plus I think the whole teenage girl thing will end soon (hopefully), because my girlfriend is absolutely in love with him(she is 18), and im beginning to feel threatened by his [Justin Bieber] dashing looks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pulli23 Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 50 runs... only 1 half key (didn't know that counted as "speciality"). But I think this can be an avarage (a friend of mine had from the 20 barrow runs 5 items...) First they came to fishingand I didn't speak out because I wasn't fishing Then they came to the yewsand I didn't speak out because I didn't cut yews Then they came for the oresand I didn't speak out because I didn't collect ores Then they came for meand there was no one left to speak out for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted March 26, 2007 Author Share Posted March 26, 2007 You're not guaranteed to get 30 item out of 300 chests, probability don't work that way. However, if you get less than 19 items or more than 41, it's evidence that my conclusion is wrong. If so, let me know. reason: In binomial distribution: average drop = number of runs * brothers killed * chance deviation = ( number of runs * brothers killed * chance * ( 1- chance ) ) ^ .5 There's a 5% chance that your drop count is larger than average drop +/- 2 * deviation Based on yours: average drop = 30 deviation = 5.4 there's a 95% chance that your drop count will be within 19 to 41 items. All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
n64jive Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 hmm, I'd have to say your luck was just very good. 1 in 10 is deffinately not an average considering people go 20-50-80-100 trips without drops all the time... I have friends who have never had a drop from barrows and do it regularly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryuuka Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 very nice :thumbsup: only 1 thing, you can get lucky(so it is always when you got a "chance" fr something) my friend got real lucky and got 2 guthan spears in 8 RUNS!!! Played since February 200113th to 30 huntingfiremaking cape achieved 6th August 2008_-_-_-_Quest cape achieved 19th August 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sjakie_1_1_3 Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Your pretty lucky. I've done 100 runs and only had 1 half key :wall: Skill N' Chill - The Hawt Fun Sexy and Cool Skilling Clan!Skill n' chill website: http://skillandchill.freeforums.org/index.php - Clanchat: Skill N C - IRC Chat: #skillnchill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjKarate Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 hmm, I'd have to say your luck was just very good. 1 in 10 is deffinately not an average considering people go 20-50-80-100 trips without drops all the time... I have friends who have never had a drop from barrows and do it regularly. lets say each run is not determined by the outcome of the last so therefore you can go 100s of runs without a drop since 90% of the time (according to the data) you wont get a drop...just create a random number generator from 1-10 or 1-10000 or something and see how many times you get numbers below 10% (which would indicate how often you get a barrows drop according to this data)...then take into consideration if each run is based off the previous, do other people's outcome determine yours? there are many outlying factors that can explain why people go 100s of runs without a drop...nice data though...too bad moridin isnt around...he did a huge data compilation with bell-shaped curves and statistical analysis to prove something (cant remember, friend irl showed me it around 4 years ago) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wretched_axe Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 hmm, I'd have to say your luck was just very good. 1 in 10 is deffinately not an average considering people go 20-50-80-100 trips without drops all the time... I have friends who have never had a drop from barrows and do it regularly. If you have 1 out of 10 change it doesn't mean that after 9 times no drop you'll get one the 10th. For example, tossing a coin has 1/2th change of landing on head right? If you toss a coin 20 times I almost want to bet it doesn't come out on 10 head 10 tails :-w ( my math teacher actually did this in class, very funny convo's :lol: ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chenw Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 That doesnt explain why you cant get anything BUT chaos, deaths, minds and items if you kill ONLY the brothers. You CANNOT get bloods or boltracks without killing at least something else. Go do 100 runs with 6kc, you WILL find that KC has an effect on the chest (and ONLY 6kc) 6,924th to 30 hunting, 13,394th to 30 summoning, 52,993rd to 30 DivinationKiln Record (Post-EoC): W 25 - L 0, 14 Uncut Onyx, 8 Jad hits received (Best record: Two in the same kiln)Obby set renewed post update #2: 0QBD drops: 21 crossbow parts, 3 Visages, 1 Kites, 2 KitsMax Port Score [2205] Achieved: 27th April 2013 (World 2nd) Farmyard Rampage ranking: 12th, 50,000 Kills. Dragon Pickaxe Drops: 1 (Times after I first entered Battlefield: 2h) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Risen_The Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Great thread mate, I agree with it almost completely. :) I still think there's "luck" down there somehow.... *friend does 70 trips, 2 items* *I do 30 trips, 1 item* http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=525348 - My Pking Gallery I'M BACK FOR SUMMER BABY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted March 26, 2007 Author Share Posted March 26, 2007 That doesnt explain why you cant get anything BUT chaos, deaths, minds and items if you kill ONLY the brothers. You CANNOT get bloods or boltracks without killing at least something else. Go do 100 runs with 6kc, you WILL find that KC has an effect on the chest (and ONLY 6kc) working on that right now. I'll report when i have a good size count. EDIT1: i been doing 6 kc for the past ten runs, it appears that indeed you don't get blood & bolts at that, i'll have to modify the hypothesis about this, but i'll need further data. All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjKarate Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Go do 100 runs with 6kc, you WILL find that KC has an effect on the chest (and ONLY 6kc) when i barrowed, thats all i did was get 6kc and ive only had 2 drops in probably the 35-40 runs ive done (2 guthan helms) and i never got bolt racks, half keys or whatnot...usually runes and cash which is fine by me tbh...but if what other people get determines what youll get then yes, KC does not matter...we could also look at it from a more complex standpoint and state that each outlying variable plays a part in what you get (damage taken from each monster, time spent getting to chest, time taken to kill each barrow brother, number of monsters encountered while running, pathway taken, number of doors entered and number of doors to find 6th brother, weapon/armor/food of choice...etc...) but i dont think jagex incorporated all of that...we shall await the data though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkDude Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 The way I believe it works is that the drops are NOT worked out until you get to the chest. Each Brother "drops" an item, however this is not worked out until the other kills are taken into consideration. Maybe it's something to do with the last x monsters you killed which effects the odds. Eitherway, kill count does effect it, maybe it just adds possible rewards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uula Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 72 runs is far from good evidence, you would need like 5000 of them for at least some accuracy. Anyway, I think Leesters said something about certain drops ages ago, which has pretty much been proved correct. So... I'll disagree. I don't do any barrowing anyway, but I do disagree with a 72 chest log. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deucedeuce22 Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 The way I believe it works is that the drops are NOT worked out until you get to the chest. Each Brother "drops" an item, however this is not worked out until the other kills are taken into consideration. Maybe it's something to do with the last x monsters you killed which effects the odds. Eitherway, kill count does effect it, maybe it just adds possible rewards? I think this was proven ages ago, the drops arent determined until you open chest. I can recall several trips were I would open the chest and server would crash, and Id open it again with different results. It also means that each brother can drop any of the 24 possible items, the drops arent keyed to who you kill or when, its keyed to the chest and what you kill. Technically you could crash the server into giving you that Guth spear everytime. Open the chest, get whatever barrows item or items, then crash the server if you didnt get the ones you wanted. Come back, its like a chest reroll. To the first post---none of that data is a real surprise, its pretty much been known after the first barrage of tests ages ago. Leesters had similar odds on everything, just 1/12 for a barrows item. Not sure why people are still bothering with it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arkwelded Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 i think it all comes down to some kind of factor built in to characters. let me explain. i have an insane drop rate for rare items from slayer creatures. about 1:300 for the rare specialty item(whip, black masks, mystic items, metal boots, ect) my dragon drop rate is very high too, that may be due to the amount of boss creatures i kill. even creatures like fire giants, metal drags, ect are very good to me. i have gotten 4 chains, 9 meds, 3 spears, 2 sheilds, 2 2-hnders, 3 legs, 4 skirts, i lost count of axes after 40 :P . on the other hand my barrow drop rate stinks. i have well over 1000 chests and only 4 barrows drops(all junk), and 2 d meds. while the runes pay for the trip, the items are not there. i have freinds with many drops from barrows and nowhere near the drag and slayer drops i have. the controls are not in place for a totally acurate comparison, but IMO something is programed into each account. it may be a way to balance the game items. just my thoughts and experiances semi-retired as i am the lastest victim of computer crack! AKA... World of Warcraft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 Interesting data.. "Any people anywhere, being inclined and having the power, have the right to rise up, and shake off the existing government, and form a new one that suits them better. This is a most valuable - a most sacred right - a right, which we hope and believe, is to liberate the world."Abraham Lincoln Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noble_skull Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 You're not guaranteed to get 30 item out of 300 chests, probability don't work that way. However, if you get less than 19 items or more than 41, it's evidence that my conclusion is wrong. If so, let me know. reason: In binomial distribution: average drop = number of runs * brothers killed * chance deviation = ( number of runs * brothers killed * chance * ( 1- chance ) ) ^ .5 There's a 5% chance that your drop count is larger than average drop +/- 2 * deviation Based on yours: average drop = 30 deviation = 5.4 there's a 95% chance that your drop count will be within 19 to 41 items. That's normal distribution tbh, not binomial. and deviation = sqrt(#runs*chance*(1-chance))=sqrt(300*.1*.9)=sqrt(27) Standardising gives: X-u=Z*o = X-30=invNorm(.95)*sqrt(27) So there's a 95% chance that the drop count will be within 22 and 38 if im not mistaken. Then again, I might be wrong. Apart of that, it's a nice theory. Proud member of The Slayer's Guild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted March 26, 2007 Author Share Posted March 26, 2007 http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/binom.htm Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution The binomial distribution for a random variable X with parameters n and p represents the sum of n independent variables Z which may assume the values 0 or 1. If the probability that each Z variable assumes the value 1 is equal to p, then the mean of each variable is equal to 1*p + 0*(1-p) = p, and the variance is equal to p(1-p). By the addition properties for independent random variables, the mean and variance of the binomial distribution are equal to the sum of the means and variances of the n independent Z variables, so I am currently in desperate need of more barrow logs to research though, if anyone can contribute links, it'll be greatly appreciated. All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noble_skull Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/binom.htm Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution The binomial distribution for a random variable X with parameters n and p represents the sum of n independent variables Z which may assume the values 0 or 1. If the probability that each Z variable assumes the value 1 is equal to p, then the mean of each variable is equal to 1*p + 0*(1-p) = p, and the variance is equal to p(1-p). By the addition properties for independent random variables, the mean and variance of the binomial distribution are equal to the sum of the means and variances of the n independent Z variables, so I am currently in desperate need of more barrow logs to research though, if anyone can contribute links, it'll be greatly appreciated. Hmm normal and binomial distribution must have different meanings in English then. Proud member of The Slayer's Guild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wachtwoord Posted March 26, 2007 Share Posted March 26, 2007 http://www.stat.yale.edu/Courses/1997-98/101/binom.htm Mean and Variance of the Binomial Distribution The binomial distribution for a random variable X with parameters n and p represents the sum of n independent variables Z which may assume the values 0 or 1. If the probability that each Z variable assumes the value 1 is equal to p, then the mean of each variable is equal to 1*p + 0*(1-p) = p, and the variance is equal to p(1-p). By the addition properties for independent random variables, the mean and variance of the binomial distribution are equal to the sum of the means and variances of the n independent Z variables, so I am currently in desperate need of more barrow logs to research though, if anyone can contribute links, it'll be greatly appreciated. Hmm normal and binomial distribution must have different meanings in English then. That's probably true, Dutch is one of the very few languages which got his own words for math terms. When everything's been said and done, more has been said than done.All skills 80+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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