When Rares Run Out: Hypothesises needed!

[Forgotenn00b]

This whole thing is hypothetical; logically speaking, it will never happen.

 

 

 

This is nowhere near a valid argument. The reason for that being is that this entire topic is hypothetical, therefore all replies in turn will be...hypothetical.

 

 

 

I agree with you completely that Runescape in no way represents world economy.

 

 

 

Hypothetical questions are brought about with the intent of receiving hypothetical answers, as I am sure you are aware. There is no sure-fire way to explain hypothetical concepts, therefore we must turn to metaphors and "what-ifs", which to your credit can get hazy.

 

 

 

The reason for our confusion in short/long term is no doubt the broad range of the OP's post, in which he used the phrase "die-out" which I read as long-term and you read as dinosaurs.

 

 

 

I'm going to bed now, it was fun.

[Rebdragon]

.The reason for our confusion in short/long term is no doubt the broad range of the OP's post, in which he used the phrase "die-out" which I read as long-term and you read as dinosaurs.

 

Hehe, good way of putting it :-k .

 

 

 

Realistically though, with no intervention, at the rate that rares are "dissappearing" nowadays it would take centuries for there to be no rares in circulation. That's why I based my point on a "Jagex intervention- eliminate all rares" rather than a "maybe some day the rares will die out on their own..."

 

 

 

'cause honestly, to your point, at the rate they're leaving the economy the slowness of their departure would make their effect on the economy barely visible. I know that- it's pretty simple logic, not really worth debating. Again, that's why I chose the "one second they're gone" approach, since we can get some actual discussion out of that :P .

 

 

 

Note: Try not to sound like Locke in your posts. Starting out with "that is nowhere near a valid argument" doesn't exactly generally spark friendly chatter :| .

[Forgotenn00b]

 

Note: Try not to sound like Locke in your posts. Starting out with "that is nowhere near a valid argument" doesn't exactly generally spark friendly chatter :| .

 

 

 

Sorry if I came off as malicious, no intention as such. I guess I have always figured that putting aside feelings in debates yielded greater productivity, no hard feelings :).

 

 

 

Also, if you just saw the Lost season finally as I did, I would just like to add that it was amazing and as always left us with way too many questions and way too long of a break before we get them. Also Locke isn't dead :D

[Rebdragon]

Sorry if I came off as malicious, no intention as such. I guess I have always figured that putting aside feelings in debates yielded greater productivity, no hard feelings :).

 

 

 

Also, if you just saw the Lost season finally as I did, I would just like to add that it was amazing and as always left us with way too many questions and way too long of a break before we get them. Also Locke isn't dead :D

 

I actually don't follow Lost, not enough free time+ soccer practice on the night it's on #-o . The Locke I was referring to was a poster on this forum who seems to like attacking people and their logic a little too much, I just don't want you to sound like him.

 

 

 

Ya, I don't even know who Locke is on Lost :XD: .

[Forgotenn00b]

words

Oh, as you can see by my postcount vs. regdate, I don't much follow this forum. I don't have enough tolerance for this community to not cringe reading 90% of the topics.

 

 

 

Edit: format didn't quite work out on that one, changed it up.

[nubstyle]

personally, i think rs would go back to what it was before the rares even came out... runescape! \

 

 

 

sorry, but the sheer number of rares out there makes this scenario basically impossible.. but if in some day years from now this did happen... people would find something else that looked cool to wear... er... like snail helmets? :oops: rofl... really don't know, hadn't really thought of a odd time like that.

[trackstar1]

Well for one, Jagex knows how important rares are to the rs economy and how they keep some people playing rs. They know that if rares are no more then rs is no more WITCH IS TRUE if you think about it, to a lot of people its not Runescape its Rarescape.

[Zandalf]

Realistically though, with no intervention, at the rate that rares are "dissappearing" nowadays it would take centuries for there to be no rares in circulation. That's why I based my point on a "Jagex intervention- eliminate all rares" rather than a "maybe some day the rares will die out on their own..."

 

 

 

'cause honestly, to your point, at the rate they're leaving the economy the slowness of their departure would make their effect on the economy barely visible.

 

 

 

I think you're overlooking an important point.

 

 

 

I postulate that 90% of the rares currently in circulation will be gone in 10 years, if Jagex survives that long. (Also questionable :shock: )

 

 

 

Currently, rares leave the market when:

• [*:hlyybsyp]Accounts containing them are banned[*:hlyybsyp]They are dropped and not picked up

These situations are monumentally rare, so the volume of rares declines slowly.

 

 

 

But within the next few years, the rate of rares leaving the market will increase faster and faster because of another major drain on the market: players quitting.

 

 

 

A rare-owner quitting RS will keep his rares in the bank. He'd be an idiot to sell them, because if he ever came back, his gross net worth (without rares) would be microscopic compared to his potential net worth (with rares), no matter how much he managed to sell them for before quitting.

 

 

 

Let's say the current average for p-hat owner age is 16. In ten years, do you think most currently-playing 16-year-olds will still be playing? At the age of 26?(I'm not saying older players don't play - I'm 25. I'm just saying you're unlikely to play for 10 years straight)

 

 

 

So, to everyone saying it'll never happen: sorry. It'll happen sooner than you think. :wink:

[Forgotenn00b]

words

 

 

 

I believe you misread what he said. He is talking about rares being completely removed from the game, as in eliminated. When people quit, rares are not eliminated, they are merely "put on hold".

 

 

 

Also, why do you see it unlikely that people would play a game for ten years? Take games like Everquest and Ultima Online, games with almost that much of a history and have thousands of users that are active and played when it released. The fact is most people do not enjoy change. A commitment (albeit to a game) provides stability to some people for what reality is: a constant unstable world.

[Zandalf]

 

I believe you misread what he said. He is talking about rares being completely removed from the game, as in eliminated.

 

There is a threshold of how many items it takes to be a practicable concern in the market place. If there are only three p-hats left, there are essentially zero, because of the magnitude of scale. (Imagine: three dudes with p-hats who play for 2 hours a day. And 50,000 players who want p-hats, playing for 5 hours a day (250,000 to 6 ratio). How much opportunity is there for any "economy" to form around these party hats?)

 

 

 

So yeah, rares may technically never be elimated, but they will, at some point, be eliminated in all practical senses.

 

When people quit, rares are not eliminated, they are merely "put on hold".

 

Wrong. They're eliminated. If the player truly quits with a rare in his bank, it's gone forever.

 

Also, why do you see it unlikely that people would play a game for ten years? Take games like Everquest and Ultima Online, games with almost that much of a history and have thousands of users that are active and played when it released. The fact is most people do not enjoy change. A commitment (albeit to a game) provides stability to some people for what reality is: a constant unstable world.

 

10-year-veteran players are unlikely because:

• [*:24xoc1ua]People change a lot between age 16 and age 26 (trust me 8-) )[*:24xoc1ua]RS doesn't have nearly the content/playability of the longer lasting games. [*:24xoc1ua]Even the longest-lasting gamer would be absoutely ANCIENT (relative to other players)if he made it past the 10-year mark. [*:24xoc1ua]People quit when their friends quit. The liklihood of any TWO people sticking it out for 10 years is miniscule. [*:24xoc1ua]Many other reasons. I'm a little tired to list any more at the moment...

[Forgotenn00b]

more words

 

 

 

I am somewhat confused by your response in general. From what I gather you are trying to disprove me, but not "technically" disprove me. What I posted was factual, and you combated me with assumptions, such as:

 

 

 

Wrong. They're eliminated. If the player truly quits with a rare in his bank, it's gone forever.

 

 

 

Unfortunately, I believe when used in the concept of Runescape "to quit" has become a little jaded. The percentage of high level people with rares that truly quit is incredibly small compared to the people who quit for a few months or so.

 

 

 

Also, concerning:

 

 

 

10-year-veteran players are unlikely because:...

 

 

 

A few things here for you to keep in mind:

 

 

 

1)Not everyone that plays Runescape is young, and at the rate that gaming in general is expanding, gaming will be viewed at in a completely new perspective. In ten years, people who grew up with the SNES will be in their 30s holding respectable jobs.

 

 

 

2)Ok, here's the part where I was going to quote the rest of your list and tell you that you that you know what assuming does, but I am tired as well and need sleep.