Some? Sure.

 

 

 

All? Strongly disagree.

 

 

 

Bear in mind that most of the price drops are across the entire market, not just the GE.

 

 

 

Of course, it's because the rest of the market now has to complete with people who can easily buy/sell at GE. Again, it's the opportunity cost: Why sell on forums when you can sell at GE?

 

 

 

Also, they have affected items that were never hard to buy or sell before the GE. So clearly opportunity cost was never an issue there.

 

 

 

From the moment that it takes time to sell, then opportunity cost becomes an issue. GE is easier than ANY previous transaction because it requires such a minimal effort. All these goods sold "easily" but still took time to sell. Nats, for example, were perfectly fine but they still took time to sell.

 

 

 

A certain level of price drops was expected, but what we are seeing now, IMO, far outstrips anything that can be explained simply by this aspect.

 

 

 

First off, I disagree. Once I noticed the opportunity cost, the price of nats fell right where I expected them to.

 

 

 

Basically, find the average price at which the goods you were selling on forums were sold INSTANTANEOUSLY. The price of GE falls very close to that price. What were your predictions based on? arbitrary percentages?

 

 

 

It's not just "some items", Solidus.. it is a very large number of items, across virtually all market segments, many with drops in price of over 50% in a couple of weeks. That's a crash.

 

 

 

The only items that fell by a lot are those that have a high opportunity cost. Apple seeds for example, they are a nightmare to sell so obviously the opportunity cost of selling them is going to be a high percentage of a price. And of course, when GE came out their value significantly decreased.

 

 

 

If this had happened for no apparent reason then I might have been tempted to agree, however all these items are now much easier to sell, therefore there is a gain in time and opportunity cost and therefore there is no way this can be considered a "crash"

 

 

 

Has nothing to do with whether it is a crash or not.

 

 

 

Well part of the problem is your arbitrary definition of a "crash". I'm just saying there's no abnormal level of crisis in the community.

 

o ya he asked because you put "largest and best"

 

 

 

I hope he has a better reason than that, because that would be idiotic. If I thought largest = best, then I wouldn't use both words, as that would be redundant.

 

Of course, it's because the rest of the market now has to complete with people who can easily buy/sell at GE. Again, it's the opportunity cost: Why sell on forums when you can sell at GE?

 

 

For many items it is easier to sell on the forums or in W2 Fally than on the GE. Opportunity cost alone doesn't explain the price drops.

 

 

From the moment that it takes time to sell, then opportunity cost becomes an issue. GE is easier than ANY previous transaction because it requires such a minimal effort.

 

 

Again, because of its crippled nature and lousy interfaces, the GE is actually more work for sellers of popular items than the forums or in-game trading. Opportunity cost can explain drops in the prices of unpopular items that were overpriced because of market inefficiency, but not the massive drops in items that have always been easy to buy and sell very quickly.

 

 

Basically, find the average price at which the goods you were selling on forums were sold INSTANTANEOUSLY. The price of GE falls very close to that price.

 

 

Three weeks ago if you posted sara brews for sale at 1.5k they were gone instantly. They are now well below that.

 

 

 

Same with many other types of potions.

 

 

 

Snapdragon seeds were bought in huge numbers by power farmers for 35k each. Now they are under 25k.

 

 

 

A few weeks posting raw sharks for 850 a piece meant you would sell out immediately even if you had tens of thousands. They are under 700.

 

 

 

Flax was an instant buy at levels 40% above where it is now.

 

 

 

There are countless other examples.

 

 

The only items that fell by a lot are those that have a high opportunity cost.

 

 

False. Items that have always been easy to buy and sell very quickly in huge quantities -- herbs, potions, food, coal, ores, bars, bowstrings, etc. -- have dropped by large percentages.

 

 

If this had happened for no apparent reason then I might have been tempted to agree, however all these items are now much easier to sell, therefore there is a gain in time and opportunity cost and therefore there is no way this can be considered a "crash"

 

 

A crash is a large, quick drop in the prices of goods. The reason for it doesn't determine if it is a crash or not.

 

 

Well part of the problem is your arbitrary definition of a "crash". I'm just saying there's no abnormal level of crisis in the community.

 

 

 

I said right at the start of the article that people can disagree over that term, but my use of it is quite standard.

Prices will and some already are stabilizing to a point where they should be. For example coal was below 150ea the other day, now they are going back up a little.

 

 

 

Some prices however aren't returning to normal yet, but give it time and I guess they should stabilize. And even if the prices are lower them before I think it's probably normal, maybe that's cause that's the price they really should be. But we'll just have to wait and find out.

First off, I disagree. Once I noticed the opportunity cost, the price of nats fell right where I expected them to.

 

 

 

There are thousands of items. If a trained monkey predicted the price changes of all of the items, then he would get hundreds of them right purely by chance. What is the significance of you getting one arbitrarily chosen item right?

 

 

 

Basically, find the average price at which the goods you were selling on forums were sold INSTANTANEOUSLY. The price of GE falls very close to that price. What were your predictions based on? arbitrary percentages?

 

 

 

What are your statements here based on? Arbitrary Ouija boards? Definitely not actually using the GE, because it's just not true, as Qeltar gave examples for.

 

 

 

If this had happened for no apparent reason then I might have been tempted to agree, however all these items are now much easier to sell, therefore there is a gain in time and opportunity cost and therefore there is no way this can be considered a "crash"

 

 

 

Ah, now we come to the real reason I'm replying to your post. You only believe that crashes are "real" crashes if they happen for no apparent reason? Ok, name ONE SUCH crash in the real world. Ready, set, go... I think I'll be waiting for awhile. Crashes in the real world don't happen for no reason, they happen for many reasons. Prices get too high, confidence becomes irrational, then a triggering event starts a selloff which punctures the irrational confidence and panic sets in. That's 3 or 4 reasons for virtually every crash ever-- and guess what, they're all apparent.

 

 

 

 

Well part of the problem is your arbitrary definition of a "crash". I'm just saying there's no abnormal level of crisis in the community.

 

 

 

What's a normal level of crisis, btw? :ohnoes: Arbitrarily, I'm going to say that your arbitary definition of his definition as being more arbitrary than yours seems very arbitrary, to me. Still, it's not an abnormal level of arbitrary, so I'll let you off the hook.

It should come as no surprise that ALL items that can be gathered on F2P world would suffer a decline in prices. You have far too many gatherers that for years had no convenient venue to sell with the best update F2P has ever experienced (outside the stronghold of security).

 

 

 

While I do understand the point you're making, I'm curious why yews have gone up in price so much. :-k

It should come as no surprise that ALL items that can be gathered on F2P world would suffer a decline in prices. You have far too many gatherers that for years had no convenient venue to sell with the best update F2P has ever experienced (outside the stronghold of security).

 

 

 

While I do understand the point you're making, I'm curious why yews have gone up in price so much. :-k

 

 

 

Because bowstrings and nats went down, possibly coupled with anti-bot measures by Jagex.

 

For many items it is easier to sell on the forums or in W2 Fally than on the GE. Opportunity cost alone doesn't explain the price drops.

 

 

 

You're going to have to provide some examples for some explanations for that then. Because the mere fact of logging into world 2 (or even just logging into the forums) requires more effort than going to GE.

 

 

 

Again, because of its crippled nature and lousy interfaces, the GE is actually more work for sellers of popular items than the forums or in-game trading. Opportunity cost can explain drops in the prices of unpopular items that were overpriced because of market inefficiency, but not the massive drops in items that have always been easy to buy and sell very quickly.

 

 

 

Very quickly yes, but not instantaneously. Therefore even if the opportunity cost was lower, there was still a cost in time which was then completely eliminated by GE.

 

 

 

Also, crippled nature? lousy interfaces? That's a matter of personal taste.

 

 

 

 

Three weeks ago if you posted sara brews for sale at 1.5k they were gone instantly. They are now well below that.

 

 

 

With price fluctuations that's hardly surprising.

 

 

 

Same with many other types of potions.

 

 

 

With price fluctuations that's hardly surprising.

 

 

 

Snapdragon seeds were bought in huge numbers by power farmers for 35k each. Now they are under 25k.

 

 

 

Ah now here's something you may have missed. Bulk selling. You see if someone had one snapdragon seed in their bank, they little incentive to sell it because they would spend some time only to get 35k as opposed to someone who sells 100 snapdragon seeds for 3.5m. This means that the person who sells for 35k just won't be bothered to spend the time and the item will rot away in the person's bank. When the GE comes out, then they have no reason not to sell and then they sell for 25k each.

 

 

 

Thanks to methods taught by ego_scorpion, I have learned some very interesting things about selling incentives which also explains why people are willing to sell for such low prices. Basically i learned that it was possible to buy things for outrageously low prices (such as ranarrs for 1k each, green d hides for 500 each). The reason for people selling for so low? they can't be bothered to spent time selling, I offer the instantaneous option and so they sell on the basis of "getting something is better than nothing". Although I disagreed with him at the time, it seems that he had the most accurate vision of the opportunity cost of selling. If you could just see the prices that I was able to get away with, you would realize that the prices at GE are, in fact, higher than what you'd expect.

 

 

 

Another way this extra incentive can be seen is with the GE itself. When it first came out, plenty of people were so glad they had gotten rid of stuff in their bank and then contemplated all the millions they had gotten. Isn't it pretty obvious? Stuff that was previously sitting in banks collecting dust is now sell-able material. This sell-able material can be anything! Even stuff that is easy to sell. Therefore, I think it's pretty clear why even things that were easy to sell have greatly decreased in value.

 

 

 

A few weeks posting raw sharks for 850 a piece meant you would sell out immediately even if you had tens of thousands. They are under 700.

 

 

 

Flax was an instant buy at levels 40% above where it is now.

 

 

 

There are countless other examples.

 

 

 

See above for explanation, which I might add all has to do with opportunity cost.

 

 

 

False. Items that have always been easy to buy and sell very quickly in huge quantities -- herbs, potions, food, coal, ores, bars, bowstrings, etc. -- have dropped by large percentages.

 

 

 

Are you kidding? potions are hard to sell. I spent hours trying to sell my super restore potions. Had it not been for GE, I would have given up on herblore all together. The subjective nature of what's "reasonable" or "easy to sell" is a fallacy in your article because it's really not true.

 

 

 

A crash is a large, quick drop in the prices of goods. The reason for it doesn't determine if it is a crash or not.

 

 

 

It's hardly a crash when people are still willing to supply the goods for just a slightly lower price. Crash would imply that there is no longer a market for certain goods or at least imply a catastrophic situation. What we have here is a hardly a catastrophic situation.

 

 

 

I said right at the start of the article that people can disagree over that term, but my use of it is quite standard.

 

 

 

Well where are the riots? where are the floods of rants on the rants forum? If this is supposed to be a crash then this is the crash with the lowest amount of fallout that I've ever seen. Just explain what you think is a crash.

 

You're going to have to provide some examples for some explanations for that then. Because the mere fact of logging into world 2 (or even just logging into the forums) requires more effort than going to GE.

 

 

Getting into world 2 is simple if you know the trick. There are guides to it here on Tip.It.

 

 

 

Once there, it took less time to dump items below the old market values to merchants than it takes to sell them for the new market prices on the GE. So, as I said, opportunity cost doesn't explain the drops.

 

 

Very quickly yes, but not instantaneously. Therefore even if the opportunity cost was lower, there was still a cost in time which was then completely eliminated by GE.

 

 

A cost in time that is dwarfed by the reduced return due to lower costs right now. So, as I said, it's not opportunity cost that is to blame.

 

 

Also, crippled nature? lousy interfaces? That's a matter of personal taste.

 

 

The interfaces, sure. I mean, if you really LIKE not being able to browse, and having to click three times every time you want to buy something, and then entering an item name and clicking again, and then not being able to return to the search list and having to start all over again -- I guess that's rather interesting personal taste. :)

 

 

 

As for it being crippled -- nope, not personal taste. It's crippled because it doesn't allow people to buy and sell for the prices they want, so for many people and products it is COMPLETELY useless.

 

 

With price fluctuations that's hardly surprising.

 

 

They aren't price "fluctuations" -- the prices have all dropped dramatically. Do some research.

 

 

You see if someone had one snapdragon seed in their bank, they little incentive to sell it because they would spend some time only to get 35k as opposed to someone who sells 100 snapdragon seeds for 3.5m. This means that the person who sells for 35k just won't be bothered to spend the time and the item will rot away in the person's bank. When the GE comes out, then they have no reason not to sell and then they sell for 25k each.

 

 

What YOU are missing is that a month ago anyone could have sold a single snadragon seed for more money and in less time than it took once the GE came out.

 

 

A few weeks posting raw sharks for 850 a piece meant you would sell out immediately even if you had tens of thousands. They are under 700.

 

 

 

Flax was an instant buy at levels 40% above where it is now.

 

 

 

There are countless other examples.

 

 

 

See above for explanation, which I might add all has to do with opportunity cost.

 

 

A month ago, I could go on the forums and sell 10k raw sharks for 8.5 milion in less than a minute.

 

 

 

I can't sell 10k raw sharks on the GE for anything approaching that number.

 

 

 

That has absolutely nothing to do with "opportunity cost".

 

 

 

You're either not listening to me or simply not capable of understanding that before the GE it was easier AND faster to get MORE money for common items than it is now.

 

 

 

Either way it seems pointless to continue arguing about it.

 

 

 

 

 

False. Items that have always been easy to buy and sell very quickly in huge quantities -- herbs, potions, food, coal, ores, bars, bowstrings, etc. -- have dropped by large percentages.

 

 

potions are hard to sell. I spent hours trying to sell my super restore potions.

 

 

Yes, at what price? 8k? 9k?

 

 

 

At the prices they go for now you could have sold them faster before.

 

 

It's hardly a crash when people are still willing to supply the goods for just a slightly lower price.

 

 

They aren't slightly lower, they are substantially lower, as I've already shown. On hundreds of products across all segments.

 

 

Crash would imply that there is no longer a market for certain goods or at least imply a catastrophic situation. What we have here is a hardly a catastrophic situation.

 

 

That's complete nonsense.

 

 

 

You accused me of using an "arbitrary" definition of what a crash is, but it's actually you who is imposing arbitrary 'requirements' for what a crash is.

 

 

 

The 1987 stock market decline is undeniably a crash. It led to no "catastrophic situations". It was just a steep, big decline in prices. Same as we have here.

 

 

Well where are the riots? where are the floods of rants on the rants forum? If this is supposed to be a crash then this is the crash with the lowest amount of fallout that I've ever seen. Just explain what you think is a crash.

 

 

 

I've explained it a dozen times already... in the article and in this thread.

 

 

 

Riots have nothing to do with crashes. And by the way, there have been THOUSANDS of complaints about the lower prices on the forums (not that that defines a crash either.) :roll:

If you click here you'll find a Google cache of a forum posting from around a month ago. On it, someone is offering to buy iron knives for 40 each, and several people offer to sell them at that price.

 

 

 

I have some iron knives I've been trying to sell on the GE at the minimum possible price for two weeks. I just tried again to sell them at 31 gp -- that's over 20% lower -- and there were no buyers. (And don't tell me to 'be patient' because we both know bloody well that there are probably thousands of sellers ahead of me.)

 

 

 

Now, tell me again exactly how the GE is saving me "opportunity cost"?

If you click here you'll find a Google cache of a forum posting from around a month ago. On it, someone is offering to buy iron knives for 40 each, and several people offer to sell them at that price.

 

 

 

I have some iron knives I've been trying to sell on the GE at the minimum possible price for two weeks. I just tried again to sell them at 31 gp -- that's over 20% lower -- and there were no buyers. (And don't tell me to 'be patient' because we both know bloody well that there are probably thousands of sellers ahead of me.)

 

 

 

Now, tell me again exactly how the GE is saving me "opportunity cost"?

 

 

 

Everybody and his brother has started making iron knives to break even at smithing. How is it the fault of the GE that there is now more supply than demand? Some blame should be placed on all the lemmings who have been making iron knives in the first place.

 

 

 

Iron ore is dirt-cheap in the exchange right now - 71-79 range. People can get 100% smelting either at the blast furnace or with rings of forging.

 

 

 

79 / 5 = 16 each, my friend. At 32, good smiths are still doubling their money.

 

 

 

But the introduction of cheap bone bolts has more to do with the fall of the iron knife than the GE does.

 

 

 

When all is said and done, the GE can't create demand.

 

 

 

I seem to remember similar amounts of whinging back when rune 2Hs fell from million dollar items to common weapons... the sky didn't fall then and it's not falling now.

lordkafei: Please understand that I am not trying to cast judgment on whether the price drops are good or bad -- I'm simply saying that they have happened.

 

 

 

In fact, I am not blaming the GE for this, except partially. I am mostly saying that there are many factors why prices have gone down. Arguing that the price drops are all due to reductions in "opportunity cost" misses the mark for two reasons: the price drops have been dramatic even on items that used to be easy to sell; and the GE is not the easy-to-use market for sellers of many items that it was claimed to be.

 

 

 

When people have been trying for two weeks to sell items at the cheapest possible prices and can't, what you clearly have is a screwed up market mechanism.

... When people have been trying for two weeks to sell items at the cheapest possible prices and can't, what you clearly have is a screwed up market mechanism.

 

 

 

No, what you have is items no one wants to buy. It doesn't necessarily mean the mechanism is screwed up.

... When people have been trying for two weeks to sell items at the cheapest possible prices and can't, what you clearly have is a screwed up market mechanism.

 

 

 

No, what you have is items no one wants to buy. It doesn't necessarily mean the mechanism is screwed up.

 

 

 

Sorry, but wrong.

 

 

 

I have items no one wants to buy at Jagex's artificially controlled prices.

 

 

 

And that's the point. (Though this thread is not meant to be about the GE, really.)

Hello author of this article, I have a couple questions:

 

 

 

1) Would you reccomend buying any of the items that have dropped significantly or will they continue to fall in price?

 

 

 

2) Will most items recover to their normal price eventually?

 

 

 

3) Will the new skill summoning create demand for the items that have depreciated? (maybe tying into question 2)

 

 

 

Thank you,

 

 

 

predator1030

To all the people who don't think it's a crash... remember when maples were 85 - 100gp ea? Well guess what, they're now 44gp each. Almost willow log prices. Which is why I bought 76k maples from the ge a couple days ago and banked 99 firemaking.

 

 

 

If you guys think items dropping half their value in 2 weeks isn't a "crash" then I don't know what is, and personally there's too many debating lunatics in here that are dissing the thread maker, and no one is an expert but he's just making his points.

 

 

 

So I don't care what you guys say, that's my 2 cents and goodbye =D>

very nice read queltar even if i didnt understand half the terms used lol.

 

 

 

my one question is simply this, how did godswords manage to rise in price thanks to the ge? after the duel tournys came out they droped like everything else zgs at around 39m and bgs around 41m. yet it seems they have rose in prices back to 46m for a bgs and 43m for zgs.another thing that bothers me is that the ge prices do seem to be falling for the godswords yet w2 is a few mill higher.

 

 

 

*please note the prices were observed on w2*

 

 

 

thank you for any info on this question.

Great read Qeltar =D>

 

 

 

Sad that prices went down, I'm glad myself that Barrows items are going back up in price :)