RS is luck based

[applyapple]

In over 5k chest I have seen a 1/12.6 rate. I've had back to back double chests, and a 460 chest drystreak. It's all luck.

 

The likeliness of you opening 460 chests for 1 piece of loot at a 1:13 drop rate is .0000000000000102195347%. If your scenario is true, I would suggest trying the lottery.

jesus, Ive never calculated the rates. Id hazard to guess back to back double chests is rarer 1/13^4=1/28561=3.501x10^-5=.00003501. Not quite as rare but w/e. That would be the formula I think.

Lol. I believe his story, so calculating rates won't help you at all.

[Bladewing]

All the pseudo calculations in this thread are laffolaffolaffo to me. People are calculating meaningless probabilities that are probably misleading anyone who hasn't studied statistics.

 

Point is this: dry streaks are a LOT more common than we intuitively believe.

 

Flipping a coin 5 times and getting 5 heads in a row has a 3.125% chance of occurring. Flipping a coin 50 times in a row and having 5 heads in a row has a 54.59% chance of occurring.

 

Opening 90 chests and getting 0 items has a 0.054591% chance of occuring. Opening 900 chests and having a dry streak of 90 has a 3.545% chance of occurring.

 

One in 28 people will have a dry streak of 90 or longer in 900 chests.

[Tim]

Try going 8 years with only ONE drop in the entire time of playing.

 

With that said, screw drops. I settle for something that IS reliable and consistent. MTK hauls in about 500k a day at the cost of 75k, that's 425k profit daily. Green dragons are alright, provided you can find a world NOT infested with useless botters. (honestly, I've seen over 5 120+ and 2 130+, its sad)

[Jeffwilson99]

I think everyone feels the pain that is 'chance', rahter than luck when playing RS

 

Personally, I would have to say I had pretty average luck with drops. Although, when I was a low level member, form about level 85-100 (Before the days of summoning) I made a lot of money from Barrows, and I had a pretty decent chest rate. Although, in other areas of the game, I never really had any great drops. The only cool thing I can remember is getting a Dragon Sheild half, but thats about all.

[applyapple]

All the pseudo calculations in this thread are laffolaffolaffo to me. People are calculating meaningless probabilities that are probably misleading anyone who hasn't studied statistics.

 

Point is this: dry streaks are a LOT more common than we intuitively believe.

 

Flipping a coin 5 times and getting 5 heads in a row has a 3.125% chance of occurring. Flipping a coin 50 times in a row and having 5 heads in a row has a 54.59% chance of occurring.

 

Opening 90 chests and getting 0 items has a 0.054591% chance of occuring. Opening 900 chests and having a dry streak of 90 has a 3.545% chance of occurring.

 

One in 28 people will have a dry streak of 90 or longer in 900 chests.

Teach me. Please.

 

I think everyone feels the pain that is 'chance', rahter than luck when playing RS

 

Personally, I would have to say I had pretty average luck with drops. Although, when I was a low level member, form about level 85-100 (Before the days of summoning) I made a lot of money from Barrows, and I had a pretty decent chest rate. Although, in other areas of the game, I never really had any great drops. The only cool thing I can remember is getting a Dragon Sheild half, but thats about all.

It's a game! Have fun playing barrows, you can make money other ways!!!!

[CaJ]

People are going overboard over this.

 

A lot of Runescape is based on luck. You may get Barrows armor every 5-10 trips, you may have a dry steak that lasts several months.

 

You can't change luck. It is an everyday occurrence and people need to accept it.

[All_Is_Great]

I know alot is based on luck, namely every monster drop.

 

So I've decided to use something that gives consistent money, since hunting for drops just isn't my thing :sad:

[20Rice04]

Lol, I remember after getting 99 str I got a month of members for my hawt cape, at the same time my little brother got it.

 

Basically since I only had a month I tried to cram in as much of the fun stuff as possible- this included barrows etc. Throughout the entire time in members I don't think I made a significant amount of cash.

 

My little brother on the other hand for his first ever slayer assignment gets bronze dragons. He goes and kills his very first bronze dragon and gets dragon platelegs.... I was absolutely raging :L

 

But it's one of those things. If you want fast cash on members I think everyone knows that Green Dragons are one fo the best sources.

[applyapple]

I know alot is based on luck, namely every monster drop.

 

So I've decided to use something that gives consistent money, since hunting for drops just isn't my thing :sad:

Drop hunting is fun, not moneymaking. What are you doing?

[All_Is_Great]

I know alot is based on luck, namely every monster drop.

 

So I've decided to use something that gives consistent money, since hunting for drops just isn't my thing :sad:

Drop hunting is fun, not moneymaking. What are you doing?

 

Fun is subjective, for example, I find construction + farming fun, and not alot of others can say that.

 

Btw, I'm planning on doing a mixture of stuff, like aviansies/ fruitfall/ maybe even more barrows if I can get myself around to it.

[applyapple]

I know alot is based on luck, namely every monster drop.

 

So I've decided to use something that gives consistent money, since hunting for drops just isn't my thing :sad:

Drop hunting is fun, not moneymaking. What are you doing?

 

Fun is subjective, for example, I find construction + farming fun, and not alot of others can say that.

 

Btw, I'm planning on doing a mixture of stuff, like aviansies/ fruitfall/ maybe even more barrows if I can get myself around to it.

Lol. I love farming. I like contruction, but it costs a lot.

Makes sense.

[Cacmypants]

I too have a hard time believeing that it's a 1/18 drop rate, lol