MidnightHarvester

Saruman don't feel bad. I'm up to I guess around 300 irons and a few steels in between without anything worth noting. Virginia Beach eh, yeah that's what I'm talking about. Richmond here (well between there and Charlottesville in Louisa)

Unless somebody has gotten the drop ratio directly from a programmer at Jagex, I'm afraid you will never get an accurate answer. (a discussion here regarding drop rates) http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=668728&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0 (wickedpedias brilliant observations) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistics

I won't give out the source, but if you go "shopping" around for other forums on other fan sites there is a topic that touches on this and the words "vengeance" and "bug" come up frequently.

*Shrugs* Been doing pyramid since level 65 (to 75 now) and still waiting. I'm not sure they heard me ... I AM STILL WAITING !!!

Last Sunday evening I did 17-18 barrows runs. Each time I got my kill count up to 25-30 (for the rune and rack drops). In those runs I ended up with Torags Platelegs, Guthans Helm, two Dragon Medium Helms and a crapload of bloods and racks and chaos runes. This brings me to what I'd like to add to this. I have heard many times that the kill count does not effect barrows drops, but does anybody know for a fact (with proof to back it up if at all possible) if so called kill count affects how many dragon mediums you get? Everybody I talked to that evening said I was just getting incredibly lucky.

The author of this topic has made a very rational and logical post. To put it simply, open up notepad or get a piece of ... i think its called paper ... and make a list numbered 1-100. After each line number, write down either heads or tails. When you have done this get a quarter, game token, nickel whatever and flip it 100 times and write the results down to what you have wrote. The result is NOT random, each time you flip the coin you have a .5 chance of getting either heads or tails. If you get the first flip wrong and guess heads when in all actuality tails comes up, that outcome makes NO difference what so ever in what the next flip will give you. I saw somebody a few pages ago write that the author was not being accurate (paraphrased) because he didn't account for big words such as standard deviation. Geltar is completely unable to account for "standard deviation" because he does NOT know exactly what the chances are for each drop, so there is no way he can tell you how tight or stretched the curve is for the normal. I think this is a very good insight for players to read into and better understand what a random drop is. The chance is NEVER truly random, the chance is what Jagex and the developers have coded into Java. The factor lots of players seem to think is random is what part of that x axis they are going to fall on... will it be the X percent who get it in under 50 drops or the Z percent that get it in their 10000th attempt? But it is never RANDOM! You will always have the same chance of getting a rare drop as every single person next to you... always. There is no conspiracy. Geltar, my applause goes to you to try to get this understanding out the the masses. I "support" your experiments. :thumbsup:

All of the above are good ideas. I just wanted to throw in data I gathered from the new Tower of Life quest. The NPC's that tend to live outside of the tower have a thieving requirement of 1 to steal from just like other nameless men/women. (I would assume, since they give 8 exp each just like a regular man/woman...If this is incorrect please correct me :P ) But unlike other level 1 nameless men/women, you steal triangle sandwiches instead of 3 gp, and they don't walk around at all, so it is a very good spot to level up to around 45-48 maybe as I have no experience past 46. You will get about the same exp per hour as the stalls. The baker stalls give 16 exp every two seconds, and you can get a good two and a half pickpockets in the same amount of time - on average from what I timed about 1k exp per 6 minutes. My level when making those averages was 45, so adjust accordingly. Also consider the time made up from not having to fend off the guards who will attack, and factor in the 5 second delay when you get stunned as well. Choose depending on your level. Just another alternative to the baker stalls I guess, and something new. On the positive, there are no guards to attack you and like the stalls, you can sit there for however long as you wish. On the negative however, the pickpocket option is a right click option and there are no guards to break up the monotony so can get very boring at times. Just my two cents, and as I have learned...Jagex has thrown in (for most skills at least) a variety of methods that yield approximately the same results, so choose according to what you enjoy! Btw, it's been a week so I'm sure everybody knows, but for those looking for where or what the Tower of Life is, it is the Nercomancer's tower south-east of Ardougne. Edit: Guess I should add this. What I actually am currently doing is going to Rellekka, and getting the guards behind the fence on the east side, and timing it right so I can run to the fish stall (on the east side), steal, drop (usually keep the lobsters though), then I run over to the fur stall (again, the northern most spot on the east side of the stall. I steal, then repeat.