Runescape drops have been and always will be based on luck.

 

 

 

For example: say the drop rate of any hilt is 1/200 or .5% That means every time you get a drop you have a .5% chance for a hilt drop.

 

Each drop does not carry over to the next, so every drop has the same chance as the last for a drop. Regardless if you have had 10,000 drops or 1 drop, your next drop chance would be .5%.

 

 

 

The 1/200 is a theoretical average(based on if the world was perfect). It is NOT an average that says it is common to get 1 hilt in 200 drops. Rather, it says there is a 1/200 POSSIBILITY to get one. And the possibility is based solely on luck of the draw.

 

 

 

I have sarad with teams in the past, one trip lasted us 6 hours, and we got nothing but a shard. So its really all based on luck, as is everything. Sometimes you have bad luck and dont get a drop for 10,000 kills.

 

 

 

And the ROW increase % is so small, you'd need to test it with hundreds of thousands of samples to prove it was working. Say you got 10 drops while using the ROW, how do you know that was the ROW providing the increase, or simply a increase of random luck? You cant prove it so you cant state with fact it was the ROW unless you conduct a HUGE sample size.

 

 

 

If something gives a 5% increase, you cant do 10 drops and say because 2/10 drops were good instead of 0/10 the 5% helped. You need more samples to prove your correct and its not just luck of the draw.

Runescape drops have been and always will be based on luck.

 

 

 

For example: say the drop rate of any hilt is 1/200 or .5% That means every time you get a drop you have a .5% chance for a hilt drop.

 

Each drop does not carry over to the next, so every drop has the same chance as the last for a drop. Regardless if you have had 10,000 drops or 1 drop, your next drop chance would be .5%.

 

 

 

The 1/200 is a theoretical average(based on if the world was perfect). It is NOT an average that says it is common to get 1 hilt in 200 drops. Rather, it says there is a 1/200 POSSIBILITY to get one. And the possibility is based solely on luck of the draw.

 

 

 

I have sarad with teams in the past, one trip lasted us 6 hours, and we got nothing but a shard. So its really all based on luck, as is everything. Sometimes you have bad luck and dont get a drop for 10,000 kills.

 

 

 

And the ROW increase % is so small, you'd need to test it with hundreds of thousands of samples to prove it was working. Say you got 10 drops while using the ROW, how do you know that was the ROW providing the increase, or simply a increase of random luck? You cant prove it so you cant state with fact it was the ROW unless you conduct a HUGE sample size.

 

 

 

If something gives a 5% increase, you cant do 10 drops and say because 2/10 drops were good instead of 0/10 the 5% helped. You need more samples to prove your correct and its not just luck of the draw.

 

 

 

AMEN

 

 

 

/thread?

Runescape drops have been and always will be based on luck.

 

 

 

For example: say the drop rate of any hilt is 1/200 or .5% That means every time you get a drop you have a .5% chance for a hilt drop.

 

Each drop does not carry over to the next, so every drop has the same chance as the last for a drop. Regardless if you have had 10,000 drops or 1 drop, your next drop chance would be .5%.

 

 

 

The 1/200 is a theoretical average(based on if the world was perfect). It is NOT an average that says it is common to get 1 hilt in 200 drops. Rather, it says there is a 1/200 POSSIBILITY to get one. And the possibility is based solely on luck of the draw.

 

 

 

I have sarad with teams in the past, one trip lasted us 6 hours, and we got nothing but a shard. So its really all based on luck, as is everything. Sometimes you have bad luck and dont get a drop for 10,000 kills.

 

 

 

And the ROW increase % is so small, you'd need to test it with hundreds of thousands of samples to prove it was working. Say you got 10 drops while using the ROW, how do you know that was the ROW providing the increase, or simply a increase of random luck? You cant prove it so you cant state with fact it was the ROW unless you conduct a HUGE sample size.

 

 

 

If something gives a 5% increase, you cant do 10 drops and say because 2/10 drops were good instead of 0/10 the 5% helped. You need more samples to prove your correct and its not just luck of the draw.

 

That's the thing, noone never tested it long enough to say ROW works. But Jagex has stated it helps with rares, and that's what i am doing. Noone knows if ROW works on certain items, or all.

 

 

 

But i know that rune med from lesser demons is rare and i could get 1 within 15 min or with 2 hours, and it was a "RARE". Now a Dragon axe or Berserker ring is rare at Dagannoth Rex, so i could think that it helps. Jagex says it does, and i believe ROW has helped if not alot but a bit.

 

 

 

But i am not disagreeing, what you say there is really good.

 

 

 

 

AMEN

 

 

 

/thread?

 

Can you stop behaving like a kid?

I'm sorry, but I fail to see what's here to discuss.

 

 

 

You have been unlucky at GWD lately, okay.

I'm sorry, but I fail to see what's here to discuss.

 

 

 

You have been unlucky at GWD lately, okay.

 

 

 

So because there is nothing to discuss you choose to "/Thread"? That's immature behavior.

I doubt the drop rate has changed.

 

 

 

I calculated from our clan's drop record, my own drop record, and the records of all those people who were killing Zilyana (back when the various methods existed) that a hilt was roughly 1:150 to 1:250. The other items were roughly 1:50 to 1:100.

 

 

 

The thing with odds that low is that,

 

 

 

A) When you spend a long time at GWD, it feels like you've spent even longer than you have, and it feels like you've killed more than you have. In other words, what you think is 400-500 kills might actually be 350. This happens to everyone, with almost every boss monster. It still feels like my friends and I have killed 300+ Corporeal Beasts, but our log shows 100, and we started the log not far in.

 

 

 

B) The chance of you getting the drop in an amount of kills equal to the odds is lower.

 

 

 

For example, imagine flipping a standard coin. The chance of getting a heads is 1/2. The chance of NOT getting a heads in two flips is 25%.

 

 

 

Now, imagine rolling a standard 6-sided dice. The chance of getting a six is 1/6. The chance of NOT getting a six in six rolls is 33.5%.

 

 

 

See the problem? Now, if we assume the upper end of my estimates were accurate, if you were to kill 250 Zilyanas starting right now, your chance of NOT getting a hilt in those 250 kills is 36.7%.

 

 

 

Even if you were to kill a thousand Zilyanas from here on, you would still have a 2% chance of not getting a hilt. While that sounds low, it really isn't. Just look at all the people who get first kill Dragon Claws, or two Abyssal Whips in ten kills.

 

 

 

It's very difficult to detect changes in drop rate, unless they are very significant. Some instances of this are the Tormented Demons that recently came out. Day 1, you got a dragon plate piece every 20 kills on average, and a pair of D claws every 50 kills or so. A month later, from several thousand kills worth of data, you are getting a dragon plate piece every 50-100 kills on average, and a pair of Dragon Claws every 300. However, it's unlikely for Jagex to go randomly change the drop rate of something that's been in place for over a year, without any particular reason.

 

 

 

Don't get discouraged. As Jard already mentioned earlier, in all our clan's GWD history, we've had ONE clan hilt... and maybe 3 other GWD drops besides. Lady luck can really be a ***** at times.

i had quit a year and only been back 10 weeks and ive been to gwd a few times like 15 trips solo, duo and 3 way had the drops in my sig one hilt was solo, ive never had a problem with arma always dropped nice for me, good profit but im like that with everything i do.

 

 

 

last spiritual mages trip yesterday i got 2 boots from 140 kills

 

 

 

That's nice but you should know ring of wealth is being neglected when using LootShare, it means it won't have affect on drop. So you might gotten those rares because of the ring most likely, but anyhow well done. I am just saying :thumbup:

 

 

 

had to recount my trips its actually 20 but we dont use ring of wealth i use life as on death im gonna loose about 20m. only ever had a hilt solo.

 

 

 

Cool well i recommend using ROW. Here's why, if your gonna go there risking your items (You are even with ring of life), then do it with a good chance of a rare than a low.

 

 

 

I did 8 trips at Dagannoth rex with ring of life, i got only 1 warrior ring.

 

 

 

With Ring of wealth i did around 5-8, and i earned 12m+ ;) Even earned 5.9m in 1 trip!

 

 

 

I never wear a a RoW and had a 4 axe, 2 zerker trip so that nulls the point of the RoW being such an effect. :D

 

 

 

But yeah, it's pure luck, you can moan/compliment/suggest all you want but in the end it boils down to luck. There's pretty much nothing thats changeable to up your luck, hell, you may never get another drop, luck works both ways down there.

 

 

 

People posting their drops haven't changed, so there's nothing to suggest drop rates have changed.

 

 

 

Good luck.

I've done something like a hundred trips to Zammy, and 30-40 trips to Bandos.

 

 

 

Never had anything at Bandos - well a guy got a chest on LS in a mass.....

 

 

 

Zammy, i've had 2 spears and a steam staff on CS.

 

Thats it.

 

 

 

My total loss for it is something like 450k?

 

And thats with no deaths.

 

 

 

It's my luck, i've been playing for ages and only had 1 dragon skirt and a 2M split of a chain at KQ. :cry:

 

 

 

People ask me why i'm poor for my level. Thats why.

 

Its not called LuckScape for nothing ;)

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

 

Question for my good friend, SirHemen.

 

 

 

Have you done extensive testing that concludes drop rates have been nerfed, or are you making an extremely uneducated guess? Don't quote me on this, but I SUSPECT it may be the latter.

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

 

Question for my good friend, SirHemen.

 

 

 

Have you done extensive testing that concludes drop rates have been nerfed, or are you making an extremely uneducated guess? Don't quote me on this, but I SUSPECT it may be the latter.

 

 

 

I haven't seen a "Drop is nerfed" thread other than this in good while, and did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

This threads point was to get feedback from other clan as to how stuff was hanging with them at GWD. Oh and another thing, don't call me friend ;)

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

 

Question for my good friend, SirHemen.

 

 

 

Have you done extensive testing that concludes drop rates have been nerfed, or are you making an extremely uneducated guess? Don't quote me on this, but I SUSPECT it may be the latter.

 

 

 

I haven't seen a "Drop is nerfed" thread other than this in good while, and did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

This threads point was to get feedback from other clan as to how stuff was hanging with them at GWD. Oh and another thing, don't call me friend ;)

 

 

 

Aw cmon, you were suggesting that the drops were, perhaps, nerfed, which obviously isnt the fact. You dont have to write someting down literally to make something clear.

 

I'll leave it at this, my friend.

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

 

Question for my good friend, SirHemen.

 

 

 

Have you done extensive testing that concludes drop rates have been nerfed, or are you making an extremely uneducated guess? Don't quote me on this, but I SUSPECT it may be the latter.

 

 

 

I haven't seen a "Drop is nerfed" thread other than this in good while, and did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

This threads point was to get feedback from other clan as to how stuff was hanging with them at GWD. Oh and another thing, don't call me friend ;)

 

 

 

Aw cmon, you were suggesting that the drops were, perhaps, nerfed, which obviously isnt the fact. You dont have to write someting down literally to make something clear.

 

I'll leave it at this, my friend.

 

 

 

I never thought drops were nerfed again (They were few months ago, that i know), and you can assume as much as you want but i never thought or claimed the drops were nerfed (So what if i did?). I was after how the recent drop nerf affected other boss clans. Now if that's hard for you to understand, then simply stop typing letters on the keyboard.

 

 

 

Now do i have to repeat myself again or did you understand that?

did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

I was after how the recent drop nerf affected other boss clans. Now if that's hard for you to understand, then simply stop typing letters on the keyboard.

So what exactly is the point of this thread?

did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

I was after how the recent drop nerf affected other boss clans. Now if that's hard for you to understand, then simply stop typing letters on the keyboard.

 

 

 

I simply called it by way you called it, the thread is about drops though but not a nerf...

 

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

I was after how the recent drop nerf affected other boss clans. Now if that's hard for you to understand, then simply stop typing letters on the keyboard.

 

 

 

I simply called it by way you called it, the thread is about drops though but not a nerf...

 

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

 

 

Oh, well in that case, what aspect of the drops are we discussing?

did i say that i concluded drop was nerfed? You obviously need new glasses. So are you imagening it in your head that i am making "Drops is nerfed" threads?

 

 

 

I was after how the recent drop nerf affected other boss clans. Now if that's hard for you to understand, then simply stop typing letters on the keyboard.

 

 

 

I simply called it by way you called it, the thread is about drops though but not a nerf...

 

I wonder how many "____ drop rate was nerfed!" threads we can make in a week.

 

 

I was going to stay out of this, but I thought I'd post a few things:

 

 

 

First of all, if your implying that the drop rate was lowered, this is a nerfed thread :P

 

 

 

Secondly, your sample is really too small to say anything whatsoever; my last 950 bandos boss kills have netted nothing besides 2 shards, and the streak is still going.

i had quit a year and only been back 10 weeks and ive been to gwd a few times like 15 trips solo, duo and 3 way had the drops in my sig one hilt was solo, ive never had a problem with arma always dropped nice for me, good profit but im like that with everything i do.

 

 

 

last spiritual mages trip yesterday i got 2 boots from 140 kills

 

 

 

That's nice but you should know ring of wealth is being neglected when using LootShare, it means it won't have affect on drop. So you might gotten those rares because of the ring most likely, but anyhow well done. I am just saying :thumbup:

 

 

 

had to recount my trips its actually 20 but we dont use ring of wealth i use life as on death im gonna loose about 20m. only ever had a hilt solo.

 

 

 

Cool well i recommend using ROW. Here's why, if your gonna go there risking your items (You are even with ring of life), then do it with a good chance of a rare than a low.

 

 

 

I did 8 trips at Dagannoth rex with ring of life, i got only 1 warrior ring.

 

 

 

With Ring of wealth i did around 5-8, and i earned 12m+ ;) Even earned 5.9m in 1 trip!

 

I always use ring of life at dk's and on MOST trips I earn atleast 4M PROFIT. Best trip was 11,7M and it was also while using life ring. In my opinion your ring of wealth just got owned. 8-)

Wait? First you are saying that you dont claim there is a nerf, but that you are just having bad luck, and are wondering wether other clans are , coincidentally, also having bad luck.

 

 

 

Now, you say, there actually has been a drop nerf?! (a while back, from what you are saying) and that you are wondering wether other clans are faring just as bad as yours is, dropwise.

 

 

 

:?:

i had quit a year and only been back 10 weeks and ive been to gwd a few times like 15 trips solo, duo and 3 way had the drops in my sig one hilt was solo, ive never had a problem with arma always dropped nice for me, good profit but im like that with everything i do.

 

 

 

last spiritual mages trip yesterday i got 2 boots from 140 kills

 

 

 

That's nice but you should know ring of wealth is being neglected when using LootShare, it means it won't have affect on drop. So you might gotten those rares because of the ring most likely, but anyhow well done. I am just saying :thumbup:

 

 

 

had to recount my trips its actually 20 but we dont use ring of wealth i use life as on death im gonna loose about 20m. only ever had a hilt solo.

 

 

 

Cool well i recommend using ROW. Here's why, if your gonna go there risking your items (You are even with ring of life), then do it with a good chance of a rare than a low.

 

 

 

I did 8 trips at Dagannoth rex with ring of life, i got only 1 warrior ring.

 

 

 

With Ring of wealth i did around 5-8, and i earned 12m+ ;) Even earned 5.9m in 1 trip!

 

I always use ring of life at dk's and on MOST trips I earn atleast 4M PROFIT. Best trip was 11,7M and it was also while using life ring. In my opinion your ring of wealth just got owned. 8-)

 

Ring of wealth increases rare drop chances by about 5%. To see an accurate indication of that, you would have to get 5,000+ (250 drops affected by ROW) rare drops, or 320,000 rex kills. Or around 4,500 trips. So trumpeting a single or even a hundred tested trips simply makes you look ignorant; the drop is too rare to get a good indication in that small of a sample size.

i had quit a year and only been back 10 weeks and ive been to gwd a few times like 15 trips solo, duo and 3 way had the drops in my sig one hilt was solo, ive never had a problem with arma always dropped nice for me, good profit but im like that with everything i do.

 

 

 

last spiritual mages trip yesterday i got 2 boots from 140 kills

 

 

 

That's nice but you should know ring of wealth is being neglected when using LootShare, it means it won't have affect on drop. So you might gotten those rares because of the ring most likely, but anyhow well done. I am just saying :thumbup:

 

 

 

had to recount my trips its actually 20 but we dont use ring of wealth i use life as on death im gonna loose about 20m. only ever had a hilt solo.

 

 

 

Cool well i recommend using ROW. Here's why, if your gonna go there risking your items (You are even with ring of life), then do it with a good chance of a rare than a low.

 

 

 

I did 8 trips at Dagannoth rex with ring of life, i got only 1 warrior ring.

 

 

 

With Ring of wealth i did around 5-8, and i earned 12m+ ;) Even earned 5.9m in 1 trip!

 

I always use ring of life at dk's and on MOST trips I earn atleast 4M PROFIT. Best trip was 11,7M and it was also while using life ring. In my opinion your ring of wealth just got owned. 8-)

 

You shouldn't be gloating about 1 trip to Hemen. If you are, he can probably own you in that category. Also, 1 good trip doesn't prove anything.

Drop rates don't change suddenly because someone touchy hits a dry streak. The rates have always been about:

 

 

 

1/100 Godsword Shard

 

1/100-125 Saradomin Sword

 

1/300-350 Other drops (So Armadyl Helmet/Chest/Skirt have a combined drop rate of 3/300, or 1/100)

 

1/250-300 Hilt

 

 

 

ROW only affects half keys and dragon shield/med/spear.