1 in 3000.

 

Average amount ?

i'd like to say how people have put a number on it, you havent stated what dragon, an as far as i know the dif drags have dif drop rates

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

Compfreak estimated the drop rate at 1/3000. The probability of getting a drop in 3000 kills is:

 

P(getting a visage)=1 - P(not getting a visage)

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^3000 = 0.632 the two is rounded down and we are left with 63%.

 

 

 

In 10k kills the probability of getting a visage is:

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^10000 = 0.964 (>90%)

 

 

 

A lot of the other posters have made mistakes in their calculations prehaps mixing the probabilty with the expected value of visage drops. The chance/luck/whatever terminology has not helped.

 

 

 

I think some people are having problems with realising that killing multiple dragons can be thought of as a series of events instead of just thinking about each kill as a single event. Otherwise it's just basic high school math. I see no reason for a flame war here.

but as far as I know each dragon should be considered as a single event, as the drop chance does not increase.

 

This calculation is not on a kill by kill basis. It means that if, say, over the course of the next month you kill 3000 dragons, the chance of you getting a visage somewhere in those 3000 kills is 63%.

Do you people have any clue what probability means? Obviously I know that previous kills don't increase your chances -.-

 

What it does mean is that you have a higher probability of a drop in 10,000 kills then in 1 kill. I thought this was taught in basic high school math classes :wall:

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability

 

Stay classy, tip.it...

mmm, I'm just going by the basic mathematical knowledge I have, which is not that much.

 

maths was never my strong point :?

 

ah well, at least I can admit when I'm wrong.

 

kudos to you comp.

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

Compfreak estimated the drop rate at 1/3000. The probability of getting a drop in 3000 kills is:

 

P(getting a visage)=1 - P(not getting a visage)

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^3000 = 0.632 the two is rounded down and we are left with 63%.

 

 

 

In 10k kills the probability of getting a visage is:

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^10000 = 0.964 (>90%)

 

 

 

A lot of the other posters have made mistakes in their calculations prehaps mixing the probabilty with the expected value of visage drops. The chance/luck/whatever terminology has not helped.

 

 

 

I think some people are having problems with realising that killing multiple dragons can be thought of as a series of events instead of just thinking about each kill as a single event. Otherwise it's just basic high school math. I see no reason for a flame war here.

but as far as I know each dragon should be considered as a single event, as the drop chance does not increase.

 

Each dragon kill is still considered as a single event. The probabilty of getting a drop in any one of these single events is 1/3000 and the probabilty of not getting a drop in any single event is 1-(1/3000) = 2999/3000. When several dragons are killed there is a group of these single events.

 

 

 

Mleh, 2.30am is too late to talk about math in your third language. The main point of my post would have been that the probability for single events doesn't change and that we are only determining how probable it is to get a drop somewhere in a certain number of kills.

mmm, I'm just going by the basic mathematical knowledge I have, which is not that much.

 

maths was never my strong point :?

 

ah well, at least I can admit when I'm wrong.

 

kudos to you comp.

 

Ehh, 'tis fine. I happen to love math, but it's not for everyone :P

I hate to dump all over your bubble, but your odds NEVER change. If you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads, and a 50% chance it will be tails.

 

If the first toss is heads, then what are the odds for the next toss? 50% - 50%.

 

 

 

The previous kill does not affect the outcome of the next in any way, shape, or form :o !

 

I killed about 2,000 blue drags and got a clue scroll

 

I also killed about 50 iron drags and got one.

 

To quote another poster:

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

 

Just have faith, and cool [cabbage] happens man. It's teh way of life \

 

Also, sorry about the multicolor,I got bored

 

 

 

Please do not go overboard with colours as it can make posts extremely difficult to read ~tripsis

I hate to dump all over your bubble, but your odds NEVER change.If you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads, and a 50% chance it will be tails.

 

If the first toss is heads, then what are the odds for the next toss? 50% - 50%.

 

 

 

The previous kill does not affect the outcome of the next in any way, shape, or form :o !

 

I killed about 2,000 blue drags and got a clue scroll

 

I also killed about 50 iron drags and got one.

 

To quote another poster:

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

 

Just have faith, and cool [cabbage] happens man. It's teh way of life \

 

Also, sorry about the multicolor, I got bored

 

That's wonderful. Unfortunately, that has precisely zero to do with my post.

 

 

 

Now, as I was saying, despite having a 50\50 chance each time you flip the coin, your going to have a 0.0009765625 chance of flipping nothing but heads 10 times in a row. Not that it has to do with your previous flips. Same goes for visage\no visage drop.

I hate to dump all over your bubble, but your odds NEVER change.If you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads, and a 50% chance it will be tails.

 

If the first toss is heads, then what are the odds for the next toss? 50% - 50%.

 

 

 

Go flip some coins and tell me that there is a 50% chance of hitting 100 heads in a row...

I hate to dump all over your bubble, but your odds NEVER change.If you flip a coin, there's a 50% chance it will be heads, and a 50% chance it will be tails.

 

If the first toss is heads, then what are the odds for the next toss? 50% - 50%.

 

 

 

The previous kill does not affect the outcome of the next in any way, shape, or form :o !

 

I killed about 2,000 blue drags and got a clue scroll

 

I also killed about 50 iron drags and got one.

 

To quote another poster:

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

 

Just have faith, and cool [cabbage] happens man. It's teh way of life \

 

Also, sorry about the multicolor, I got bored

 

 

 

Being bored is no excuse for posting something that's a pain on the eyes to read. Besides, you are completely missing the point. What we're talking about is analogous to flipping a coin 3 times and looking for the chance of at least one of them being heads, which is 1 - (1/2)^3 = 7/8 or 87.5%.