what is visage drop rate

[Yanks09]

I have been keeping trakc and have killed over 3K drags, and nothing yet. I also have been killing mith drags and no luck. What are they drop raters?

[compfreak847]

Around 1/3000. So you had a 63% chance of getting one by now, not that bad. Kill 10,000 and you'll have over 90%. It's all about statistics and probability, although some uninformed folks will say 'its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!"

 

 

 

Yeah, I called it. It's some sort of forum game, "guess what the below poster will post". Maybe not immediately below, but it will happen :P

[muggiwhplar]

its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!

[compfreak847]

its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!

 

I hate you :uhh:

[Yanks09]

I understand it is somewhat luck, but I want to know the odds at each monster, so I can use the probability in my favor.

 

 

 

my stats are 90-96-90

[baileydafrog]

i'm on like 12-13k drags that drop visages, over 10k of them bein steels, no visage, lots of d drops though

[oliboli1992]

Around 1/3000. So you had a 63% chance of getting one by now, not that bad. Kill 10,000 and you'll have over 90%. It's all about statistics and probability, although some uninformed folks will say 'its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!"

 

 

 

Yeah, I called it. It's some sort of forum game, "guess what the below poster will post". Maybe not immediately below, but it will happen :P

 

 

 

erm, excuse me..how can you put a percentage on it?..as far as i know the probability of it is not affected by the previous drop nor will the current drop affect any future drops, it will still be 1 in 3000....if you kill 10,000 the chance of getting one the next kill is still 1 in 3000....

[Seraphi]

killing more monsters does not increase your chance of getting a drop, its the same every time, you can kill 10 dragons and get 3 visages, or 10000 and not get a rune item drop.

 

the last I heard the estimated probability was 0.05% which seems low, but its actually 2000 dragons.

 

it would seem chance is not on your side.

 

and to anyone saying it is down to luck, it is not luck, it is chance, luck is just an imginary thing made up from the human mind to explain why good or bad things are happening often.

[hyt]

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

[Fekambard]

The prophecy has been fulfilled, 3 times! :o

 

Around 1/3000. So you had a 63% chance of getting one by now, not that bad. Kill 10,000 and you'll have over 90%. It's all about statistics and probability, although some uninformed folks will say 'its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!"

 

 

 

Yeah, I called it. It's some sort of forum game, "guess what the below poster will post". Maybe not immediately below, but it will happen :P

 

 

 

erm, excuse me..how can you put a percentage on it?..as far as i know the probability of it is not affected by the previous drop nor will the current drop affect any future drops, it will still be 1 in 3000....if you kill 10,000 the chance of getting one the next kill is still 1 in 3000....

 

killing more monsters does not increase your chance of getting a drop, its the same every time, you can kill 10 dragons and get 3 visages, or 10000 and not get a rune item drop.

 

the last I heard the estimated probability was 0.05% which seems low, but its actually 2000 dragons.

 

it would seem chance is not on your side.

 

and to anyone saying it is down to luck, it is not luck, it is chance, luck is just an imginary thing made up from the human mind to explain why good or bad things are happening often.

 

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

 

 

(If you don't understand refer to compreak's original post, above).

[hyt]

Umm, what? It is not like a pvp world where the longer you are in it the better chance of a drop. It is a 1 out of (insert actual number here) chance of getting a visage per dragon. The chance per dragon does not increase after you kill a certain amount of dragons.

[gongusan]

its all luck!!! j00 can getz one in 1 kill or 1 million, itz teh luckzers!

 

rofl irl

[pureprayer]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

[Fekambard]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

[Seraphi]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

[Fekambard]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

[Seraphi]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

 

but what I said is completely true -.-

[pureprayer]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

 

but what I said is completely true -.-

 

With your logic I have a 1/3000 chance even if i kill 1,000,000,000,000 dragons? So I should just kill one and hope to get lucky?

[Seraphi]

[hide=]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

 

but what I said is completely true -.-

 

With your logic I have a 1/3000 chance even if i kill 1,000,000,000,000 dragons? So I should just kill one and hope to get lucky?

[/hide]

 

yes, just about, though I beleive killing that many to be impossible in one human life.

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

even I find it kinda hard to explain in words.

[gongusan]

flaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaame waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar

 

OT: visage is rare id say 1/2k is prolly right :(

[pureprayer]

[hide=]

Yes but if its a 1/3000 chance if you kill two its a 1/1500 chance of a visage. If you kill 3000 its a 50/50 ratio for a shot at a visage deeming that you get one every 3000 kills or close to that.

 

 

 

You can bring up that its luck again but there is (according to compfreak) a 1/3000 drop rate so if you kill 10,000 you have a GOOD SHOT at a visage. Not a 100% shot but the odds are in your favor.

 

 

 

Now if you kill 10,000 and no visage you didnt make them any more common to yourself but you were unlucky.

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

 

but what I said is completely true -.-

 

With your logic I have a 1/3000 chance even if i kill 1,000,000,000,000 dragons? So I should just kill one and hope to get lucky?

[/hide]

 

yes, just about, though I beleive killing that many to be impossible in one human life.

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

even I find it kinda hard to explain in words.

 

 

 

But if you kill it twice with two 1/3000 shots that makes it 2/3000 or 1/1500

 

 

 

You do have as much as a shot on your 1,000,000,000,000th as your first but you have the chance of getting it on any of thoes 1,000,000,000,000.

[Seraphi]

[hide=]

 

 

 

You could be asked to explain it to them? They'll just dismiss it as invalid math.

 

INVALID.

 

you have just as much chance of a visage on your next kill as some random level 89 that killed an iron dragon just to gloat to his freinds.

 

Told you not to bother... :thumbdown:

 

but what I said is completely true -.-

 

With your logic I have a 1/3000 chance even if i kill 1,000,000,000,000 dragons? So I should just kill one and hope to get lucky?

[/hide]

 

yes, just about, though I beleive killing that many to be impossible in one human life.

 

you have just as much chance on your 1,000,000,000,000th as you did on your first.

 

even I find it kinda hard to explain in words.

 

 

 

But if you kill it twice with two 1/3000 shots that makes it 2/3000 or 1/1500

 

 

 

You do have as much as a shot on your 1,000,000,000,000th as your first but you have the chance of getting it on any of thoes 1,000,000,000,000.

 

the top part of that is wrong, as if you continue on to kill 3000, using that theory, on the 3000th kill you end up with a ratio of 1:1 or 3000:3000, and that cannot be true.

 

the second part is fine though, that is true.

[Zimbu]

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

Compfreak estimated the drop rate at 1/3000. The probability of getting a drop in 3000 kills is:

 

P(getting a visage)=1 - P(not getting a visage)

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^3000 = 0.632 the two is rounded down and we are left with 63%.

 

 

 

In 10k kills the probability of getting a visage is:

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^10000 = 0.964 (>90%)

 

 

 

A lot of the other posters have made mistakes in their calculations prehaps mixing the probabilty with the expected value of visage drops. The chance/luck/whatever terminology has not helped.

 

 

 

I think some people are having problems with realising that killing multiple dragons can be thought of as a series of events instead of just thinking about each kill as a single event. Otherwise it's just basic high school math. I see no reason for a flame war here.

[Seraphi]

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

Compfreak estimated the drop rate at 1/3000. The probability of getting a drop in 3000 kills is:

 

P(getting a visage)=1 - P(not getting a visage)

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^3000 = 0.632 the two is rounded down and we are left with 63%.

 

 

 

In 10k kills the probability of getting a visage is:

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^10000 = 0.964 (>90%)

 

 

 

A lot of the other posters have made mistakes in their calculations prehaps mixing the probabilty with the expected value of visage drops. The chance/luck/whatever terminology has not helped.

 

 

 

I think some people are having problems with realising that killing multiple dragons can be thought of as a series of events instead of just thinking about each kill as a single event. Otherwise it's just basic high school math. I see no reason for a flame war here.

but as far as I know each dragon should be considered as a single event, as the drop chance does not increase.

[tongobongo]

I have been lurking and this is the first time I have seen compfreak847 be wrong about something mathematical. :|

 

Compfreak estimated the drop rate at 1/3000. The probability of getting a drop in 3000 kills is:

 

P(getting a visage)=1 - P(not getting a visage)

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^3000 = 0.632 the two is rounded down and we are left with 63%.

 

 

 

In 10k kills the probability of getting a visage is:

 

1 - (2999 / 3000)^10000 = 0.964 (>90%)

 

 

 

A lot of the other posters have made mistakes in their calculations prehaps mixing the probabilty with the expected value of visage drops. The chance/luck/whatever terminology has not helped.

 

 

 

I think some people are having problems with realising that killing multiple dragons can be thought of as a series of events instead of just thinking about each kill as a single event. Otherwise it's just basic high school math. I see no reason for a flame war here.

but as far as I know each dragon should be considered as a single event, as the drop chance does not increase.

 

The chance of a visage per dragon stays the same no matter how many you kill. Each dragon kill is considered a single event. But if you were going to kill a series of them you can easily calculate the probability of getting a drop, and that's what he did.

 

 

 

You might be confusing the meaning of the percentage calculated. If you kill 2999 you wouldn't expect a 63.2% chance of getting a visage on your next kill since the drop rate is constant.