Is there such a thing as 'dry worlds'?

[WeatherMatt]

To be clear when I say a survey of people its a survey of all the worlds at once and their drops. A drop is more likely to occur on a different world than your own if it has been the most recent. So hopping to any one of them will increase your odds - but this topic is about if you can class them as wet or dry which I think you can. If you mean dry worlds by worlds that have recently had a drop reducing their odds of it happening again significantly to a world that hasnt had a drop in ages - increases its chances mathematically that one is going to happen sooner. Its because that other world has had less opportunities for it to drop than the one in which it just happened.

 

 

 

Uh. No.

 

 

 

Pure mathematical chance stipulates that the odds of one thing happening are completely independent of all other variables - time since last drop, the world you're on, etc. etc. ad infinitum. Each time you kill a boss, you have a 1 in X chance of getting a hilt/some other item. Period. If you get a hilt on one drop, you still have that same 1 in X chance of getting a hilt the very next kill.

 

 

 

It's already been mentioned several times - selective perception. You're trying to make up a reason for why something is happening - "oh, we switched worlds and got a hilt, that must have been a dry world!" is garbage. Drop tables are random, and nothing will change the appearance of items, and people trying to explain their luck through any other kind of reasoning are making up garbage.

[Silver_Corner]

There is less chance of getting a drop after a previous drop than after 100 drops. There is more chance getting a drop after 50 attempts than 25 but less than 100. The chance increases each time. Its random but its chance of happening will increase.

 

 

 

I pretty certain if a survey of this was done that they would discover more drops happened after 20 than 10. More after 10 than 5. I know those results from other rare drops. The results will show a favor towards it happening later than sooner - as each kill occurs as the more attempts the greater the likelihood.

 

 

 

Right concept idea, but wrong interpretation.

 

 

 

The reason you see more drops later than sooner is not because the chance increases the more drops you get after a big drop. It is because as times goes on, you have more opportunities for the "dice" to roll on a rare drop.

 

 

 

Example:

 

You have a dice with 6 sides, #6 being the "rare" drop.

 

 

 

On my first roll, I get a one.

 

On my second roll, I get a six.

 

 

 

Now, my next roll has the SAME chance to roll a 6 again. There is no less of a chance to roll a 6 on my third roll, than on my first, or second. So if you get a hilt on your second "roll" there is no less of a chance to get another hilt again on your third "roll".

 

 

 

BUT

 

 

 

The more times I roll after my second roll, each time gives me another chance to get a 6 again. So while your chance does not "INCREASE" the more rolls you have, you have a higher chance to roll another 6 in rolls 50-100, than rolls 5-10 since you are giving it more OPPORTUNITIES to roll. Make sure you are not confusing those two concepts.

 

 

 

More onto the main topic:

 

 

 

As for the "dry worlds", its possible they exist, but not level people are assuming. We do know how the dial system works, but like others have said, computer generated numbers are never really "random". They have several factors being input into an equation to produce a "random" variable on the spinning drop dial.

 

 

 

If one of the variables in the equation is the world you are on, then indeed the world DOES effect your drops. But it doesn't mean if effects them positively, since nobody would know when a "dry" world would become "wet".

 

 

 

In summary:

 

If people are claiming that a drop in a world recently means there will be no drops in the near future.. This is FALSE.

 

 

 

If people are claiming that a world does have a factor on if a drop is going to be "rare".. this is "most likely TRUE".

 

 

 

Remember, if a world effects the drop, it is only one small factor of many, so the world change alone would not be enough to get "good drops" or "bad drops".

[mister_moocky]

Just the human brain trying to piece together patterns that don't exist.

 

Now where's my lucky shirt...

[Master_Smither]

A computer can't be random it has some things it can hit and it will most likely choose them in a pattern. Whether that pattern is per world or per every world on runescape we don't know.

 

 

 

Computers can't be random is what I am saying but as long as we don't know how the pattern is placed out like lets say the pattern is for every server combined. After a saphire and 4 coin drops a hilt will drop on the next time the wheel is turned which could be on any members server. Or it could be after such and such drops a hilt will drop on a single server and is not effected by any other server. Either way it's luck to be killing sara during that time. To explain b2b hilts I would imagine it would be all server's drop combined and that there was enough kills going on that you got lucky enough to hit both hilt kills b2b.

 

 

 

Personally I think drops are effected by all servers combined and that bandos drops hilt in such and such amount of kills but I don't know and probably never will.

[DarkDude]

All we know about the drops is that they're determined on death and not on spawn (believe WoW has their loot assigned at spawn for example). We know it has to be like this due to the Ring of Wealth.

 

 

 

Other than that we know NOTHING about how the drop system works, depending on what variables are used it's possible (although not likely) that the server you are on determines what drop you get, although I wouldn't say that would make it a "dry" world as such.

 

 

 

I highly doubt that there's a system where if x item has dropped recently it won't drop again for a while, it's just not really feasible.

[Bauke]

All we know about the drops is that they're determined on death and not on spawn (believe WoW has their loot assigned at spawn for example). We know it has to be like this due to the Ring of Wealth.

 

 

 

Other than that we know NOTHING about how the drop system works, depending on what variables are used it's possible (although not likely) that the server you are on determines what drop you get, although I wouldn't say that would make it a "dry" world as such.

 

 

 

I highly doubt that there's a system where if x item has dropped recently it won't drop again for a while, it's just not really feasible.

 

We do know approximately how the drop system works. Jagex explained it somewhere, but I don't know where.

[compfreak847]

In a open field lightening is unlikely to hit in the same place twice. If you stand somewhere else you have more 'chance' of being hit again than standing in the same place. Its still chance but you know its less likely to happen and its chances have decreased. Everywhere else has increased.

 

That's lightning, a physical phenomenon not a mathematical concept. In probability, the previous and future drops have no effect whatsoever on the current drop.

 

 

 

There is less chance of getting a drop after a previous drop than after 100 drops. There is more chance getting a drop after 50 attempts than 25 but less than 100. The chance increases each time. Its random but its chance of happening will increase.

 

 

 

I pretty certain if a survey of this was done that they would discover more drops happened after 20 than 10. More after 10 than 5. I know those results from other rare drops. The results will show a favour towards it happening later than sooner - as each kill occurs as the more attempts the greater the likelihood. The fact each kill individually has the same chance is irrelevant when your doing 100 kills. You have to factor in any previous kills you or others have done for it happening on that world. Put it all together mathematically and you created higher and lower odds of a drop occurring. Creating drier and wetter worlds.

 

Not true at all. In mathematical randomness, the probability never changes regardless of the previous or future drops.

 

 

 

Plus, no one really has a clue - it would take 100s of hilts to ascertain any sort of a pattern. Therefore, the most logical explanation is best, and thinking that Jagex purposely programs certain worlds 'drier' and 'wetter' without an iota of proof certainly isn't the simplest.

[DarkDude]

All we know about the drops is that they're determined on death and not on spawn (believe WoW has their loot assigned at spawn for example). We know it has to be like this due to the Ring of Wealth.

 

 

 

Other than that we know NOTHING about how the drop system works, depending on what variables are used it's possible (although not likely) that the server you are on determines what drop you get, although I wouldn't say that would make it a "dry" world as such.

 

 

 

I highly doubt that there's a system where if x item has dropped recently it won't drop again for a while, it's just not really feasible.

 

We do know approximately how the drop system works. Jagex explained it somewhere, but I don't know where.

 

 

 

Well, we know "how" it works but not "how", we don't know what determines the drop but we have a rough idea of what happens when the numbers are generated. (The two "wheel" thing)

[compfreak847]

 

 

 

Well, we know "how" it works but not "how", we don't know what determines the drop but we have a rough idea of what happens when the numbers are generated. (The two "wheel" thing)

 

The two wheel thing was a simple analogy for how all random number probability systems work. All it tells us is that it isn't a monkey pressing buttons, and that it is indeed a standard random number generation method - further supporting my idea of 'simplest is best, especially when there's no evidence otherwise'.

[Torlen]

I've never experienced "dry worlds". Paranoid American gaming conspirators tbh.

 

 

 

Blatant idiocy. I've met just as many stupid non-American gamers (see above) as I have American gamers.

 

 

 

Back on topic, I always laugh when people try to tell me to hop worlds because we just got a drop, but conspiracies have always existed in this game. If a drop has a 1 in 250 chance of dropping, each time you kill the monster you get that 1 in 250 chance.

[DarkDude]

 

 

 

Well, we know "how" it works but not "how", we don't know what determines the drop but we have a rough idea of what happens when the numbers are generated. (The two "wheel" thing)

 

The two wheel thing was a simple analogy for how all random number probability systems work. All it tells us is that it isn't a monkey pressing buttons, and that it is indeed a standard random number generation method - further supporting my idea of 'simplest is best, especially when there's no evidence otherwise'.

 

 

 

Well it says a bit more than that, it tells us that there's two numbers that are generated (for rare drops) and not just one which is something that's quite significant really. I'd have assumed that all the drops would have been on the same "wheel", but splitting them up certainly does effect how the drops work in quite a major way.

[compfreak847]

 

Well it says a bit more than that, it tells us that there's two numbers that are generated (for rare drops) and not just one which is something that's quite significant really. I'd have assumed that all the drops would have been on the same "wheel", but splitting them up certainly does effect how the drops work in quite a major way.

 

We already knew that with the introduction of the ROW. "Rare" drops have always been treated specially as a separate category of their own.

[xSxqPowerx]

Hopping does NOTHING. It changes nothing. The ONLY factor in the probability of a rare drop is the chance of having it dropped from a specific monster... and that does not change depending on worlds, and you are just as likely to get a hilt the kill after you already got a hilt as if you've been on a dry streak for 10k kills.

[DarkDude]

 

Well it says a bit more than that, it tells us that there's two numbers that are generated (for rare drops) and not just one which is something that's quite significant really. I'd have assumed that all the drops would have been on the same "wheel", but splitting them up certainly does effect how the drops work in quite a major way.

 

We already knew that with the introduction of the ROW. "Rare" drops have always been treated specially as a separate category of their own.

 

 

 

This is not necessarily true, for example on a 0-100 scale for drops, and there are 100 possible combinations (just sticking with integers for the sake of argument). Say 90-99 are all "rare" drops, the ring of wealth could add 2 to the number that is generated, thus making the chance of getting a rare drop higher. Also, AFAIK the ring of wealth just makes it more likely to land on the "RARE" section of the "wheel" and doesn't effect the second wheel at all, which is effectively the same as my example above.

[compfreak847]

 

 

 

This is not necessarily true, for example on a 0-100 scale for drops, and there are 100 possible combinations (just sticking with integers for the sake of argument). Say 90-99 are all "rare" drops, the ring of wealth could add 2 to the number that is generated, thus making the chance of getting a rare drop higher. Also, AFAIK the ring of wealth just makes it more likely to land on the "RARE" section of the "wheel" and doesn't effect the second wheel at all, which is effectively the same as my example above.

 

If that was the case, we'd never see the bottom two drops. There's only one simple way for the ROW to work, and I didn't find their method of watering it down so the kiddies could get a probability lesson very helpful :-#

[DarkDude]

 

 

 

This is not necessarily true, for example on a 0-100 scale for drops, and there are 100 possible combinations (just sticking with integers for the sake of argument). Say 90-99 are all "rare" drops, the ring of wealth could add 2 to the number that is generated, thus making the chance of getting a rare drop higher. Also, AFAIK the ring of wealth just makes it more likely to land on the "RARE" section of the "wheel" and doesn't effect the second wheel at all, which is effectively the same as my example above.

 

If that was the case, we'd never see the bottom two drops. There's only one simple way for the ROW to work, and I didn't find their method of watering it down so the kiddies could get a probability lesson very helpful :-#

 

 

 

Well yeah, that was extremely simplified, but it wouldn't be a problem if the bottom drop was say from 0-10 =P

 

 

 

But how do you think ring of wealth works then? That's the easiest way to do it (Although obviously not like that, but something similar to adjust the number towards the area where it lands on "RARE" is the only way I can think of)

[WeatherMatt]

 

 

 

This is not necessarily true, for example on a 0-100 scale for drops, and there are 100 possible combinations (just sticking with integers for the sake of argument). Say 90-99 are all "rare" drops, the ring of wealth could add 2 to the number that is generated, thus making the chance of getting a rare drop higher. Also, AFAIK the ring of wealth just makes it more likely to land on the "RARE" section of the "wheel" and doesn't effect the second wheel at all, which is effectively the same as my example above.

 

If that was the case, we'd never see the bottom two drops. There's only one simple way for the ROW to work, and I didn't find their method of watering it down so the kiddies could get a probability lesson very helpful :-#

 

 

 

Well yeah, that was extremely simplified, but it wouldn't be a problem if the bottom drop was say from 0-10 =P

 

 

 

But how do you think ring of wealth works then? That's the easiest way to do it (Although obviously not like that, but something similar to adjust the number towards the area where it lands on "RARE" is the only way I can think of)

 

 

 

Easy. Just increase the numbers on the wheel.

 

 

 

Keeping with the first example, if a wheel is 1-100, and numbers 91-100 are marked "RARE", add two numbers to the end to make it 1-102. So instead of a 10% chance (10 numbers of 100), you have a 11.7% chance (12 numbers of 102) to hit "RARE". The rare wheel is unchanged, and you still have the same chance for numbers one or two.

[compfreak847]

 

 

 

Easy. Just increase the numbers on the wheel.

 

 

 

Keeping with the first example, if a wheel is 1-100, and numbers 91-100 are marked "RARE", add two numbers to the end to make it 1-102. So instead of a 10% chance (10 numbers of 100), you have a 11.7% chance (12 numbers of 102) to hit "RARE". The rare wheel is unchanged, and you still have the same chance for numbers one or two.

 

You can't just add drops onto a monster when it has ROW, and take them off when it doesn't - the number has to remain the same. Bump up the lowest number by two, and the highest numbers have the same chance. Any other explanation (this invalid one included) would be far more complex then the usual 'standard' and 'rare' drop tables.

[DarkDude]

 

 

 

Easy. Just increase the numbers on the wheel.

 

 

 

Keeping with the first example, if a wheel is 1-100, and numbers 91-100 are marked "RARE", add two numbers to the end to make it 1-102. So instead of a 10% chance (10 numbers of 100), you have a 11.7% chance (12 numbers of 102) to hit "RARE". The rare wheel is unchanged, and you still have the same chance for numbers one or two.

 

You can't just add drops onto a monster when it has ROW, and take them off when it doesn't - the number has to remain the same. Bump up the lowest number by two, and the highest numbers have the same chance. Any other explanation (this invalid one included) would be far more complex then the usual 'standard' and 'rare' drop tables.

 

 

 

You're missing the fact that you have to first get to the rare drop table FROM the standard one and thus there must be some sort of value in the standard table that is "RARE" which makes it go to the rare drop table. The ring of wealth effects the chance of getting to the 2nd drop table and thus it has to effect the value of the first drop table.

[compfreak847]

 

 

 

You're missing the fact that you have to first get to the rare drop table FROM the standard one and thus there must be some sort of value in the standard table that is "RARE" which makes it go to the rare drop table. The ring of wealth effects the chance of getting to the 2nd drop table and thus it has to effect the value of the first drop table.

 

That's my point. It's the simplest possible explanation, and what I assumed was used long before the god letter was published :-k

[DarkDude]

But my point was that values 90-100 could be rare drops (91 is a certain drop, 92 another etc.) which the RoW could have boosted them towards and you said that wasn't possible.

[compfreak847]

But my point was that values 90-100 could be rare drops (91 is a certain drop, 92 another etc.) which the RoW could have boosted them towards and you said that wasn't possible.

 

No, I'm saying it's possible but would have to be much more complex then simply having two drop tables. With lack of any other evidence, the simplest explanation wins.

[DarkDude]

But my point was that values 90-100 could be rare drops (91 is a certain drop, 92 another etc.) which the RoW could have boosted them towards and you said that wasn't possible.

 

No, I'm saying it's possible but would have to be much more complex then simply having two drop tables. With lack of any other evidence, the simplest explanation wins.

 

 

 

Well it's effectively the same thing and if anything is more simple as it doesn't have a second roll involved.

 

 

 

With the 2nd drop table, if it landed in the 90-100 region it'd go to the next table whereas with it just in one table there's only one "roll" needed.

[compfreak847]

 

Well it's effectively the same thing and if anything is more simple as it doesn't have a second roll involved.

 

 

 

With the 2nd drop table, if it landed in the 90-100 region it'd go to the next table whereas with it just in one table there's only one "roll" needed.

 

Generating random numbers is simple, it's much easier to generate another one then make a complex formula designed to boost certain drop rates - and it's far ease to scale through different monsters or add on other drops.

[DarkDude]

 

Well it's effectively the same thing and if anything is more simple as it doesn't have a second roll involved.

 

 

 

With the 2nd drop table, if it landed in the 90-100 region it'd go to the next table whereas with it just in one table there's only one "roll" needed.

 

Generating random numbers is simple, it's much easier to generate another one then make a complex formula designed to boost certain drop rates - and it's far ease to scale through different monsters or add on other drops.

 

 

 

The point I've made is that to GET to the second table you'd still need to boost the drop rate to get into the spot where it LANDS on rare. Either way you have to adjust the number to get into the area where either the rare drops are or into the area where you can roll again...