yeah well i got that scroll of life and thought hey how about i buy 50 ranarr seeds to test it out? i'm left with 665 ranarrs and one extra seed still growing. that is an average of 13.3 ranarrs per original seed. i haven't worked out my exact profit yet but if i was to sell the ranarrs (not even considering the coconuts and cactus spines) i would be somewhere near 250% profit (or is it 150% profit?). lets just say i doubled my original investment by one and a half times. now, although the money and exp are nice (got 70 farming last night) i need to figure out what to do with these ranarrs. do i just sell em or should i turn them into p pots with about 1mil loss (from net profit). with the current herbalore expenses would that be considered logical?

 

please offer any advice.

make the ppots so you dont have to buy them later anyway. Keep some for personal use, sell the rest if you really need the money.

Make a bunch of Pray pots, like 260 or so. Keep a few, like 50 or 40, and sell the rest.

Most people will agree that you should sell off all the herbs and then if you want to train herblore with this money, buy up the materials for a more time/gp efficient potion. Of course, prayer potions generally rank right up there around the top 5 or so most efficient potions, so it's up to you.

 

Also on your figures, you must have already had some ranarr herbs in your bank or been one of the luckiest farmers ever. Average yields from herb patches are around 6.6 with deaths. The scroll of life only returns 10% of seeds, so you should have only got 5 extra seeds, meaning an extra 30-40 herbs.

 

Are you sure of your numbers?

Also on your figures, you must have already had some ranarr herbs in your bank or been one of the luckiest farmers ever. Average yields from herb patches are around 6.6 with deaths. The scroll of life only returns 10% of seeds, so you should have only got 5 extra seeds, meaning an extra 30-40 herbs.

 

Are you sure of your numbers?

He could be. It doesn't return 10% of your seeds. There is a 10% chance that on each seed you will get a seed back, alive be it of the same seed and dead being a random one. I farmed 100 lantadymes and got back 20 seeds, an average of 1 seed a run. Some runs i got back 4 seeds, some none.

Also on your figures, you must have already had some ranarr herbs in your bank or been one of the luckiest farmers ever. Average yields from herb patches are around 6.6 with deaths. The scroll of life only returns 10% of seeds, so you should have only got 5 extra seeds, meaning an extra 30-40 herbs.

 

Are you sure of your numbers?

He could be. It doesn't return 10% of your seeds. There is a 10% chance that on each seed you will get a seed back, alive be it of the same seed and dead being a random one. I farmed 100 lantadymes and got back 20 seeds, an average of 1 seed a run. Some runs i got back 4 seeds, some none.

 

Well just going from a purely expected value it should be 5. I think if someone where to plant 1 million seeds, the number of seeds that they'd get back would probably be very close to 100k. It might be a little more or a little less, but in the end it should be roughly in that ball park. Remember, 50 and 100 seeds is a very small sample.

i can't verify the numbers. perhaps there is a slight error but the runs did take me A LOT longer than my usual 50 or so runs.. i was for sure getting around at least a 20% return.

Also on your figures, you must have already had some ranarr herbs in your bank or been one of the luckiest farmers ever. Average yields from herb patches are around 6.6 with deaths. The scroll of life only returns 10% of seeds, so you should have only got 5 extra seeds, meaning an extra 30-40 herbs.

 

Are you sure of your numbers?

He could be. It doesn't return 10% of your seeds. There is a 10% chance that on each seed you will get a seed back, alive be it of the same seed and dead being a random one. I farmed 100 lantadymes and got back 20 seeds, an average of 1 seed a run. Some runs i got back 4 seeds, some none.

 

Well just going from a purely expected value it should be 5. I think if someone where to plant 1 million seeds, the number of seeds that they'd get back would probably be very close to 100k. It might be a little more or a little less, but in the end it should be roughly in that ball park. Remember, 50 and 100 seeds is a very small sample.

No no no no. You don't get back 10% of the seeds you planted back. There is a 10% chance to get a seed back from the plant, but not 10% of the seed you planted back.

 

* When harvesting a non-tree farming patch, there is a 10% chance that you will regain a number of seeds equal to the number you originally planted

* When digging up a fruit tree or normal tree patch, there is a 5% chance that you will regain the seed you originally planted

Source

 

No no no no. You don't get back 10% of the seeds you planted back. There is a 10% chance to get a seed back from the plant, but not 10% of the seed you planted back.

 

* When harvesting a non-tree farming patch, there is a 10% chance that you will regain a number of seeds equal to the number you originally planted

* When digging up a fruit tree or normal tree patch, there is a 5% chance that you will regain the seed you originally planted

Source

 

 

If you have a 10% chance to recover a seed on each seed planted, then, given a large enough sample size, you would, theoretically, get 10% of your seeds back. On a small scale, it may very well happen that every seed seems to give a seed back, or none do, but that is only a result of the RNG in the short term.

the only non-ranarr seed i got through the entire thing was a guam. and it was only once.

the only non-ranarr seed i got through the entire thing was a guam. and it was only once.

Most likely due to it being a dead patch.

 

I don't see where y'all are getting that you will get around 10% of your seeds back. I don't see that at all any where.

the only non-ranarr seed i got through the entire thing was a guam. and it was only once.

Most likely due to it being a dead patch.

 

I don't see where y'all are getting that you will get around 10% of your seeds back. I don't see that at all any where.

 

Also from the RS KB:

 

If you harvest dead herbs, the herb seed you have a chance of receiving will be random. Sometimes, you may receive a torstol seed after harvesting a guam, for example. This only applies to dead herbs: live herbs will offer you a seed that is identical to the ones you originally planted in the patch.

 

So this is assuming that all his patches stay alive. Perhaps my example isn't quite accurate. If he were to plant 1 million torstol seeds in My Arm's patch, then you'd expect roughly 100k torstol seeds to be recovered.

 

I believe bladewing has some data on farming runs and I think he recorded the number of deaths. If we factor that in I'm sure we could come up with a more accurate figure.

the only non-ranarr seed i got through the entire thing was a guam. and it was only once.

Most likely due to it being a dead patch.

 

I don't see where y'all are getting that you will get around 10% of your seeds back. I don't see that at all any where.

 

Also from the RS KB:

 

If you harvest dead herbs, the herb seed you have a chance of receiving will be random. Sometimes, you may receive a torstol seed after harvesting a guam, for example. This only applies to dead herbs: live herbs will offer you a seed that is identical to the ones you originally planted in the patch.

 

So this is assuming that all his patches stay alive. Perhaps my example isn't quite accurate. If he were to plant 1 million torstol seeds in My Arm's patch, then you'd expect roughly 100k torstol seeds to be recovered.

 

I believe bladewing has some data on farming runs and I think he recorded the number of deaths. If we factor that in I'm sure we could come up with a more accurate figure.

Ok, we might be thinking of 2 completely different things. I talked about it with numerous others, some have thought about what you're talking about. Let me give you what I'm thinking.

 

Lets say you take a 10 sided die, or a 10 slotted wheel if you can't get a die, and you go to each herb patch. You roll that die, or spin the wheel, and it landing on that special number is the 10% chance you're gonna get a seed back. That doesn't mean you're going to get 10% of your seeds back, thats how you can get 20 seeds back from 100 planted, or 5.

 

Now that i think about it, Jagex decided to give use another "ring of wealth" since they decided to tell use about the first one lol.

i can assure you that i did not have more than 80 ranarrs in my bank, if any. still, i am intrigued to do another 50 or possibly 100 seed test considering that i am on summer vacation now. i shall report my results more formally and accurately.

I don't see where y'all are getting that you will get around 10% of your seeds back. I don't see that at all any where.

Lets say you take a 10 sided die, or a 10 slotted wheel if you can't get a die, and you go to each herb patch. You roll that die, or spin the wheel, and it landing on that special number is the 10% chance you're gonna get a seed back. That doesn't mean you're going to get 10% of your seeds back, thats how you can get 20 seeds back from 100 planted, or 5.

 

Refer to my post from above:

If you have a 10% chance to recover a seed on each seed planted, then, given a large enough sample size, you would, theoretically, get 10% of your seeds back. On a small scale, it may very well happen that every seed seems to give a seed back, or none do, but that is only a result of the RNG in the short term.

 

You are partially correct: Each seed effectively has a 10-sided die rolled for it, and so it is entirely possible that you could go 1,000,000 seeds without getting a single returned, or conversely, you could get 1,000,000 seeds back. Despite this being possible, it is highly unlikely. That's why we are saying that, over a large enough sample, you will start to see a trend where that 1-in-10 chance of receiving seed begins to accurately apply to your whole sample. The larger the size of your sample, the clearer that 1-in-10 will be. While each roll is independent of the previous rolls, that 10% is constant. In a smaller sample, you may get unlucky and roll 2-10 consistently. But the simple fact is that with RNG's, patterns will develop. Computer RNGs do not mimic real life, with the purely random chance factor. The programming will eventually begin to display that 10% trend once it has been run enough times (large enough sample size).

 

You are partially correct: Each seed effectively has a 10-sided die rolled for it, and so it is entirely possible that you could go 1,000,000 seeds without getting a single returned, or conversely, you could get 1,000,000 seeds back. Despite this being possible, it is highly unlikely. That's why we are saying that, over a large enough sample, you will start to see a trend where that 1-in-10 chance of receiving seed begins to accurately apply to your whole sample. The larger the size of your sample, the clearer that 1-in-10 will be. While each roll is independent of the previous rolls, that 10% is constant. In a smaller sample, you may get unlucky and roll 2-10 consistently. But the simple fact is that with RNG's, patterns will develop. Computer RNGs do not mimic real life, with the purely random chance factor. The programming will eventually begin to display that 10% trend once it has been run enough times (large enough sample size).

 

Exactly, this is essentially what I've been saying from the start. This is a perfect example of expected value.

 

i can assure you that i did not have more than 80 ranarrs in my bank, if any. still, i am intrigued to do another 50 or possibly 100 seed test considering that i am on summer vacation now. i shall report my results more formally and accurately.

 

Another 50 or 100 seeds will help to give a better picture, but it's still relatively small. I'd say around 1k is what you need for a good sized test.

 

Why not go for broke and do enough seeds for 99 farming? We'll have an excellent sample size then. :P

You are partially correct: Each seed effectively has a 10-sided die rolled for it, and so it is entirely possible that you could go 1,000,000 seeds without getting a single returned, or conversely, you could get 1,000,000 seeds back. Despite this being possible, it is highly unlikely. That's why we are saying that, over a large enough sample, you will start to see a trend where that 1-in-10 chance of receiving seed begins to accurately apply to your whole sample. The larger the size of your sample, the clearer that 1-in-10 will be. While each roll is independent of the previous rolls, that 10% is constant. In a smaller sample, you may get unlucky and roll 2-10 consistently. But the simple fact is that with RNG's, patterns will develop. Computer RNGs do not mimic real life, with the purely random chance factor. The programming will eventually begin to display that 10% trend once it has been run enough times (large enough sample size).

Makes a little since i guess.

 

@ Sinkhan, if you posted that earlier i might have believed it. But I'd still like to see a large sample size, I don't like to "take people's words for it" for some things.

You are partially correct: Each seed effectively has a 10-sided die rolled for it, and so it is entirely possible that you could go 1,000,000 seeds without getting a single returned, or conversely, you could get 1,000,000 seeds back. Despite this being possible, it is highly unlikely. That's why we are saying that, over a large enough sample, you will start to see a trend where that 1-in-10 chance of receiving seed begins to accurately apply to your whole sample. The larger the size of your sample, the clearer that 1-in-10 will be. While each roll is independent of the previous rolls, that 10% is constant. In a smaller sample, you may get unlucky and roll 2-10 consistently. But the simple fact is that with RNG's, patterns will develop. Computer RNGs do not mimic real life, with the purely random chance factor. The programming will eventually begin to display that 10% trend once it has been run enough times (large enough sample size).

Makes a little since i guess.

 

@ Sinkhan, if you posted that earlier i might have believed it. But I'd still like to see a large sample size, I don't like to "take people's words for it" for some things.

 

Well just going from a purely expected value it should be 5. I think if someone where to plant 1 million seeds, the number of seeds that they'd get back would probably be very close to 100k. It might be a little more or a little less, but in the end it should be roughly in that ball park. Remember, 50 and 100 seeds is a very small sample.

 

But anyway, I agree with you on the actual "go out and try it" stance. Nothing is better than empirical observation on a large sample size :)

Well just going from a purely expected value it should be 5. I think if someone where to plant 1 million seeds, the number of seeds that they'd get back would probably be very close to 100k. It might be a little more or a little less, but in the end it should be roughly in that ball park. Remember, 50 and 100 seeds is a very small sample.

 

But anyway, I agree with you on the actual "go out and try it" stance. Nothing is better than empirical observation on a large sample size :)

I meant the link you posted.

 

And um, I think we went waaaaaaay off topic haha. Sorry about that :x

Well I don't know about that. I think noble_aloof has taken away something from this all and he's even willing to expand his tests, which is a benefit to all.

 

In the end, Morionic's spreadsheets are probably his best bet for what to do. Sell your ranarrs and then check the spreadsheet for a potion that has a low gp/xp. Beware of summoning potions though. It's very difficult to get the spirit weed and not an easy sell.

i don't mind that you went off topic since there were a few helpful answers already given. i wouldn't even consider it going off topic- it was a valid point and an intriguing argument on your part. if my results were accurate though, i'm much more inclined to do snapdragons in the future.

 

also, here is my logic if i have 1000 seeds at 10% return:

from the first 1000 seeds, 100 back

from those 100, 10 back

from those 10, 1 back

total from 1000 seeds: 111

i don't mind that you went off topic since there were a few helpful answers already given. i wouldn't even consider it going off topic- it was a valid point and an intriguing argument on your part. if my results were accurate though, i'm much more inclined to do snapdragons in the future.

 

also, here is my logic if i have 1000 seeds at 10% return:

from the first 1000 seeds, 100 back

from those 100, 10 back

from those 10, 1 back

total from 1000 seeds: 111

If your implication is that each seed effectively gives on average of of a seed back, then it is erroneous, since in planting the recovered seeds you incur the opportunity cost of selling them.

i don't mind that you went off topic since there were a few helpful answers already given. i wouldn't even consider it going off topic- it was a valid point and an intriguing argument on your part. if my results were accurate though, i'm much more inclined to do snapdragons in the future.

 

also, here is my logic if i have 1000 seeds at 10% return:

from the first 1000 seeds, 100 back

from those 100, 10 back

from those 10, 1 back

total from 1000 seeds: 111

If your implication is that each seed effectively gives on average of of a seed back, then it is erroneous, since in planting the recovered seeds you incur the opportunity cost of selling them.

no, my implication is that according to the percentiles if i start with 1000 and go til the end til i can't plant anymore i'll have effectively planted 1111 seeds.

What to do with Ranarrs? Sell them.