I would hardly say that rares are responsible for leaving supplies at stable prices. Even with this many autos deleted, hundreds of thousands of legitimate players who gather and sell resources every day are still playing. We're talkin about less than 1% of all (currently played) accounts getting wiped out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Like I said in my first post on this thread.. I doubt the banning will have much effect, if any at all. The largest effect it could have is bringing up material prices back to the original prices, as I believe that material may have dropped a small 10 - 20% because of the large activity of autoing lately. Rares may [bleep]e up a little, mainly as a result of speculation, rather then any real facts, like adam007 already pointed out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The estimated size of the rares market compared to the estimated total gp in the economy is huge. But, you are right in a way that if I sold off all my rares and bought millions of coal of that money, that I could only cause a "temporary" rise in the price of coal as nothing changed in the way the economy works.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

However, if rares didn't exist, all the money that is being stored to buy rares would come back in circulation, back into the economy. As most people realise that gp deflates on the mid-long term, most people will also want to invest it in something new.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Pseudo-rares will probably be the best choice in the time shortly after the disappearance of rares, as the panic will be huge and these items will most likely [bleep]e up giantically in price. In the longer run these items are not suitable as investement though. Pseudo-rares have the property of going down in price on the long-term, thus eventually they'll stop going up and start going down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, material prices will most likely enter a continous cycle of going up in price. Initially slower then pseudo-rares probably, as material markets are the most stable markets in the game. In opposite to pseudo-rares I'd expect that they will keep going up in price though, maybe slowly, but steadily.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Except for some merchants, the players with that kind of money are already spending millions on skills on top of their phats. When I got keylogged my bank was worth 250m, without ever "investing" in rares, merchanting, or whatever. I spent and made all that gp on skills, and there are others who do the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This is misunderestimating the size of the rares market and the amount of "normal" players who own rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at dragon bones and when the first few people got 85 slayer. I know this isn't quite as large a scale as you are talking about, but when all that new money became available, d bones went up quite a bit, but now that phase is over and they've dropped down to normal prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Because rares existed. And rares have seen a huge [bleep]e in price at the time of the slayer-richness. Rares also ensured that, despite so many new insanely rich players, material prices remained pretty stable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, dragon bones were temporarily higher as a result of the heavily increased demand. But the increased demand was temporary, nothing changed in the fundamental concept of the economy (rares weren't removed) thus it was expected that the drag bone prices would eventually drop back to their original prices.

they coulda made a mistake, maybe I was deleted, hopefully not!!!

 

 

 

dam boarding school...

The estimated size of the rares market compared to the estimated total gp in the economy is huge.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

On the other hand, material prices will most likely enter a continous cycle of going up in price.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If demand goes up, yes, skill based items will increase in price, but people will only pay what they feel is worthwhile based on the speed of xp or value of the products they make. The existence of rares does not control the prices of these items, but rather the usefulness of items compared to the usefulness of other items for that skill. (By usefulness I mean players' judgement of value based on comparing price, rate of XP, product value, etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't underestimate how much money there is in rares any more than you underestimate how much there is in skill items :wink:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consider natures, and suppose that 40 members worlds have only 2 people making them at a given time throughout the day on average (there are usually more whenever I end up in Edge), Each of these players (if you assume 40 nats a trip and 2 minutes a trip -- which is less and slower than I do).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you keep that average over the course of the day, that's 690M worth of nats coming into the game each day... not even counting the level 91 RCers who use abyss every day (or the values of coal, rune, yews, magics, etc brought into the game).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason it seems so much more GP is in rares is because a large portion of the overall "wealth" in RS is slanted to the few players who have their "value" in rares, and the millions upon millions worth of items that are generated each day are spread throughout the whole of players more evenly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Look at dragon bones and when the first few people got 85 slayer. I know this isn't quite as large a scale as you are talking about, but when all that new money became available, d bones went up quite a bit, but now that phase is over and they've dropped down to normal prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Because rares existed. And rares have seen a huge [bleep]e in price at the time of the slayer-richness. Rares also ensured that, despite so many new insanely rich players, material prices remained pretty stable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, dragon bones were temporarily higher as a result of the heavily increased demand. But the increased demand was temporary, nothing changed in the fundamental concept of the economy (rares weren't removed) thus it was expected that the drag bone prices would eventually drop back to their original prices.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The number of players rich from slayer who wanted to raise prayer decreased, so demand for dragon bones decreased, so price decreased. If it were not for rares their money would have been invested in other skills, not that it isn't already, but in a more spread out manner.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The only reason their wealth jacked up prices of bones was because they all decided to do it around the same time, just like with rares, but after that the skills they chose to raise were not so uniform, which is why the prices of materials in other skills has stayed level. The existence of rares may have kept other materials from having a short [bleep]e like dragon bones, but without rares, those materials would've stabalized in price just like bones did

yeah, ur rite!

Maybe wont make much of an effect..

If demand goes up, yes, skill based items will increase in price, but people will only pay what they feel is worthwhile based on the speed of xp or value of the products they make. The existence of rares does not control the prices of these items, but rather the usefulness of items compared to the usefulness of other items for that skill. (By usefulness I mean players' judgement of value based on comparing price, rate of XP, product value, etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't underestimate how much money there is in rares any more than you underestimate how much there is in skill items Wink

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Consider natures, and suppose that 40 members worlds have only 2 people making them at a given time throughout the day on average (there are usually more whenever I end up in Edge), Each of these players (if you assume 40 nats a trip and 2 minutes a trip -- which is less and slower than I do).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you keep that average over the course of the day, that's 690M worth of nats coming into the game each day... not even counting the level 91 RCers who use abyss every day (or the values of coal, rune, yews, magics, etc brought into the game).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason it seems so much more GP is in rares is because a large portion of the overall "wealth" in RS is slanted to the few players who have their "value" in rares, and the millions upon millions worth of items that are generated each day are spread throughout the whole of players more evenly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Sure, I'd say those numbers aren't a bad estimate. But since we're playing the numbers game, why don't we investigate the appreciation in the Rares market as well? In August, A Rares Set (1 of each Rare) would have cost you around 285M. Today, it trades for over 700M. If we give an approximate value of 2 Trillion GP to the current Rares Market (which is extremely conservative, it is likely 5 Tril+), we realise the Market value is August would have been approximately 250% less, or 0.8 Tril. So, the Market has increased about 1.2 Tril since Mid August (let's say the 15th). So, today's the 20th of January, that's an increase rate of 8.5 Billion a day. Sort of overshadows that 690M a day from Nats, doesn't it?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And the thing is, that whopping 8.5 Bil a day appreciation of the Rares Market is due to your statistic; lots more wealth is coming into the game everyday, which very little wealth being removed. The economy compensates this imbalance by increased prices of Rares, leaving nearly every other area of the market unaffected. If the new wealth being introduced into Runescape was not being absorbed into Rares (we're back to the hypothetical removal of the Rares Market), then it would have to be reflected through some other items. Duke has his own theory, and I have mine, but we agree on the same basic principle: The Rares Market absorbs potentially detrimental market forces, leaving Materials and Pseudo-Rares stable in value.

speeding up the process will only make leveling up easier. the only way this is possible would be to lower xp but then everyone would get mad.

If demand goes up, yes, skill based items will increase in price, but people will only pay what they feel is worthwhile based on the speed of xp or value of the products they make.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Give me one good reason why demand won't go up permanently when rares would not exist? People are stashing away billions of money, just to be able to buy them. If they didn't exist, surely those people would be using that money for other items?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The existence of rares does not control the prices of these items, but rather the usefulness of items compared to the usefulness of other items for that skill. (By usefulness I mean players' judgement of value based on comparing price, rate of XP, product value, etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You basically agree with me in this paragraph though, as you are saying rares are a utility substitute for materials / pseudo-rares (which I agree with). However it logically follows from the definition of a substitute that removing it will increase the demand and thus the price of the other goods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=328924

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although I'll have to redo calculations before I can come up with more backed-up numbers, I'm currently guessing the total amount of pure gp's to be around 800bil, increasing at a rate between 1.5bil - 2bil per day and estimating the total worth of the rares market somewhere around 500bil.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason it seems so much more GP is in rares is because a large portion of the overall "wealth" in RS is slanted to the few players who have their "value" in rares, and the millions upon millions worth of items that are generated each day are spread throughout the whole of players more evenly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. The reason why rares are such a large part of the economy is because materials get used up and don't stay in the economy. Sure, there may be 2.3million natures produced every day; but just as many are used up by high alchers too.

 

If demand goes up, yes, skill based items will increase in price, but people will only pay what they feel is worthwhile based on the speed of xp or value of the products they make.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Give me one good reason why demand won't go up permanently when rares would not exist? People are stashing away billions of money, just to be able to buy them. If they didn't exist, surely those people would be using that money for other items?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, of course they would use them for other items, but it wouldn't make prices outrageously higher than they already are. A lot of item-gatherers base their actions on what they can get the best gp for the time they spend, if all this money was being spent in certain areas, more gatherers would go to that as the prices go up, and the price wouldn't change all that much after supply and demand reach equilibrium. If the items commonly used became too expensive to be worth the XP, people would start buying something else, and prices would fall back to whatever is reasonable. The items determine that, not the rares.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The existence of rares does not control the prices of these items, but rather the usefulness of items compared to the usefulness of other items for that skill. (By usefulness I mean players' judgement of value based on comparing price, rate of XP, product value, etc)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You basically agree with me in this paragraph though, as you are saying rares are a utility substitute for materials / pseudo-rares (which I agree with). However it logically follows from the definition of a substitute that removing it will increase the demand and thus the price of the other goods.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not saying demand wouldn't increase. While rares may have an impact on how much GP gets spent on items for skills, the items' uses and resale/alch values along with the XP vs time are what control selling prices, and the existence of rares has a marginal impact on this, not a significant one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The reason it seems so much more GP is in rares is because a large portion of the overall "wealth" in RS is slanted to the few players who have their "value" in rares, and the millions upon millions worth of items that are generated each day are spread throughout the whole of players more evenly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No. The reason why rares are such a large part of the economy is because materials get used up and don't stay in the economy. Sure, there may be 2.3million natures produced every day; but just as many are used up by high alchers too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I never said rares aren't a large part of the economy... that'd be naive. But I doubt I'd go so far to say that there is more wealth in rares than the rest of wealth in RS. Not to mention, when those nats get uses, they are (generally) converted to cash. Which usually generates more than the sale price of natures (e.g. magic logs for 1k, string 150 each, high alching gives a difference of 386 gp). Not to mention all the rune chains alched each day at abyssal demons ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Honestly, the only way to know if there is more wealth in rares than there is in other items/GP would to get list of how many of each item is in existence at a current time in RS, which is something I highly doubt they'd ever compile just to satiate our curiosity.

Not to mention, when those nats get uses, they are (generally) converted to cash. Which usually generates more than the sale price of natures (e.g. magic logs for 1k, string 150 each, high alching gives a difference of 386 gp). Not to mention all the rune chains alched each day at abyssal demons ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly. Printing money (high alching) leads to inflation though. The point is that only rares seem to be effected by that inflation the way it is now.

 

Not to mention, when those nats get uses, they are (generally) converted to cash. Which usually generates more than the sale price of natures (e.g. magic logs for 1k, string 150 each, high alching gives a difference of 386 gp). Not to mention all the rune chains alched each day at abyssal demons ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly. Printing money (high alching) leads to inflation though. The point is that only rares seem to be effected by that inflation the way it is now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

that is because the rares market is the only market that can really skyrocket. theirs few things that rival the rares market when it comes to the exchange of currency, mainly id say barrows items dragon chains dragon weapons and newer items like the mudstaff and such. of course you cant forget treasure trail items, robin hood hats(are these the "psuedo rareS" every1 refers to?) have not doubled in price YET, but are nearing it, when they were really stable they were like 1.8 mil now their going for 2.5's and up.

 

Not to mention, when those nats get uses, they are (generally) converted to cash. Which usually generates more than the sale price of natures (e.g. magic logs for 1k, string 150 each, high alching gives a difference of 386 gp). Not to mention all the rune chains alched each day at abyssal demons ;)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Exactly. Printing money (high alching) leads to inflation though. The point is that only rares seem to be effected by that inflation the way it is now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe, but this creation of money (not just from alching, but other means too) is also what makes players willing to blow millions on skills they won't see a return on (e.g. prayer, using cannons, etc), which also plays a big roll in prices NOT inflating.

 

 

 

 

Maybe, but this creation of money (not just from alching, but other means too) is also what makes players willing to blow millions on skills they won't see a return on (e.g. prayer, using cannons, etc), which also plays a big roll in prices NOT inflating.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think you're misunderstanding this. It's total flow of money in and out of runsescape that fuels inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

eg You don't remove money when you buy 10k drag bones, you're just circulating it.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've seen others do a more thorough analysis of this but, from memory., the main sources of cash into the economy are hi-alching, drops (inc thieving) and selling things to stores.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The main drain was buying things from stores (I think!). This was rather a flaw once players got up to making most things with the balance coming from drops.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now there are items with up-keep - crystal and barrows - and other drains on cash to help balance the flow of cash into the game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What may make a difference is the new mage arena. It's provides a quicker alternative to hi-alching for levelling mage that brings (potentially) items rather cash into the games - while reducing the amount of hi-alching going on.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure how much it will affect alching tho, as most of this is alching mage longs and there is a virtuous circle of fletch and alch that advances both with little cost or gain.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway, I reckon prices will be mostly affected by the difference in the rate of cash and items into the game - more items more deflation, more cash more inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most skill related items have reached a sort of market driven equilibrium - or worse where the skill is in demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The rares are affected more because they more directly relfect the spare cash in the system.