And fletching (and definately fletch-x) came out before Tzaar cave and was one of the easiest skills to level. You also gotta rememer that getting the fire cape requires pretty high levels, preferably in many skills, good equipment, little practice and luck. It's nothing compared to farming which can be profitable, you risk nothing at it and you basically don't need anything else than a hatchet, a bit of cash or some bows to start "merchanting" with. I'd personally say it's somewhere 1:500 to find a person with a firecape. They might be pretty common sight in few specil places, but that's it. That 1:500 is based on my own beliefs. There's somewhat 200,000-350,000 paying members and at least I can't belive there would be many thousands with the fire cape with all these low and middle-leveled characters. Or around one million paying members, more likely