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The return of staking??


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#201
masterdez
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No matter how you try to break it up, the only way to make money in a 1/2 chance game is to get above-average luck.


Truth.

Where the trickery comes in is luring people in to thinking they are going to keep winning. You stake some one low amounts but keep doubling, but losing on purpose, then for a big stake you win and end up profiting. There are still risks in this though. The opponent can decide to stop staking you after they have won several, or you could always still lose the last stake and lose everything.

There are only two ways that a player can get a statistical advantage over an opponent.

The "tricks" that can give a player an advantage such as using instant spells correctly, having better internet allowing you to get first hit, using the trap door properly, obstacle skills, and many more.

The other way is to stake players with out equal stats, which involves betting more or less than your opponent based on the stat discrepancies. Where the advantage comes in is being able to properly quantify the value of the discrepancies and bet less than you "should" this will ultimately raise the expected value of your winnings. For example if you are staking someone of equal stats and you are betting the same amount then your expected winnings is always 0. However if you are staking someone with lower stats you have to properly evaluate how much lower they are, say x% worse. This means that you should increase your bet by x% as well. This will keep your expected winnings at 0, but say you bet y% more where y<x then your expected winnings will go positive. The process of evaluating the stats difference to find the "x%" is what makes pro stakers rich since the "x%" can never accurately be quantified numerically. Then you make bets like this over and over and the large the sample gets the more your winnings will trend towards the positive expected value. This is just like Vegas odds. For all sports, casino, and lottery betting the probability of winning is < 50% Therefore you are always expected to lose and the casino or bookie is always expected to win.


Without meaning to sound like a troll, you're both wrong. To correct Rocked, No matter how you try to break it up, the only way to make money in a single 1/2 chance game is to get above-average luck.

Now to our situation, where we have an undetermined number of stakes, and goal is to make a profit, and leave when a profit is made (as may be the goal of a staker). As i demonstrated in my previous post, I proved with a large cash pile, a profit is almost guaranteed.

Xensure - staking with the aim to lose, is a tactic, but a risky one at that, as your opponent can quit at any time. My hypothesis was assuming each stake was played with the intent to win, as is normally the case.

A better internet connectivity doesn't determine who get's the first hit. Most obstacle skills are obsolete now, and most players will, at least for the first few weeks, use movement off, simply due to the masses of people that will be staking.

Betting on discrepancies is, as you said, a matter of opinion. However your statement about Vegas odds is complete rubbish. The only reason bookies/casinos make money is because they take the odds and reduce them slightly (not because odds are below 50%). For example, in roulette, there are red numbers, black numbers and the 0 green. The odds you get of putting money on red is 50%, and on black 50%. This doesn't include the 0, and is an example of the small margins that casinos use to profit.
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#202
la la la
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Without meaning to sound like a troll, you're both wrong. To correct Rocked, No matter how you try to break it up, the only way to make money in a single 1/2 chance game is to get above-average luck.

Now to our situation, where we have an undetermined number of stakes, and goal is to make a profit, and leave when a profit is made (as may be the goal of a staker). As i demonstrated in my previous post, I proved with a large cash pile, a profit is almost guaranteed.

Yes, a profit is ALMOST guaranteed for one game. But in the long term, the SLIGHT chance of losing, which has an impact exponentially stronger than the impact of every little win, the results still even out to 0 net profit.

Seriously, this is one of those arguments where I'm positive I'm not wrong. Just wikipedia the Martingale System.

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#203
SirIzenhime
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Staking and the duel arena never left.
The only thing that left were the clowns who needed to manipulate the system to win. (movement off, dragon spear spec, dhally win).
RIP duel tournaments, RIP fair fights...


staking 50k was horrible, especially when you could only stake that much ever 15 minutes.
I liked duel tournaments, but no one did them, and staking with 50k was so bad.

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#204
masterdez
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masterdez

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Without meaning to sound like a troll, you're both wrong. To correct Rocked, No matter how you try to break it up, the only way to make money in a single 1/2 chance game is to get above-average luck.

Now to our situation, where we have an undetermined number of stakes, and goal is to make a profit, and leave when a profit is made (as may be the goal of a staker). As i demonstrated in my previous post, I proved with a large cash pile, a profit is almost guaranteed.

Yes, a profit is ALMOST guaranteed for one game. But in the long term, the SLIGHT chance of losing, which has an impact exponentially stronger than the impact of every little win, the results still even out to 0 net profit.

Seriously, this is one of those arguments where I'm positive I'm not wrong. Just wikipedia the Martingale System.


I guess that's right, with a large, non infinite stack of cash, there will always be the finite chance of losing, putting the net profit down to 0. However, the theoretical case where someone has an infinite stack of cash, leads to a situation where the probability of losing actually does tend to zero, as chance of losing is infinitesimally small.

Cheers for the correction, hadn't thought about it enough!
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#205
bedman
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just quit once you made your profit. Should "break" the statistics.

#206
green9090
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just quit once you made your profit. Should "break" the statistics.

If you play one game, you either win a small amount of money (very likely) or lose all of your money (very unlikely). If you play a bunch of times, you win a lot of times and then eventually lose all of your money.

It's not a smart thing to do one way or another. Playing just once isn't even that much profit, so obviously to actually earn anything you're going to have to do it more than once, and there's where the "losing all your money" part comes in.
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