Herb Runs

[Goldenjkered]

Wondering what I should herbs are generally best for herb runs. I've been doing Avantoes, and there not bad (only 2k loss if a patch dies). I'm currently 63 farming, would snapdragons be better, or ranarrs even?

 

Edit: I don't have access to Juju potions, but I do have all the patches and magic secatuers.

[Quyneax]

Snapdragons, get a scroll of life.

[Sir_Squab]

Even without juju potions?

[Autist]

Growing Snapdragons is the best money if you can not grow Torstols with juju potions.

[R3moteman]

I recently just stopped farming Snapdragons and started farming Avantoes. Snapdragons only put out a little more profit but they require more money invested and have a greater loss if they die.

[Autist]

I recently just stopped farming Snapdragons and started farming Avantoes. Snapdragons only put out a little more profit but they require more money invested and have a greater loss if they die.

 

 

The loss you face when they die... I think you are not taking the correct mathematical approach to this.

 

Okay, for the simplicity of this, lets assume that you don't have juju pots nor scroll of life. And lets assume you get 7 herbs per seed. (More like 6.77 if I am not mistaken, but lets take 7.)

 

You buy 100 snapdragon seeds: 60,100x100 = 6,010,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 13,000 = 8,190,000 gp

8190000-6010000 = 2,180,000 profit if you buy 100 snapdragon seeds.

 

You buy 100 avantoe seeds: 2000x100 = 200,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 3500 = 2,205,000

2205000 - 200000 = 2005000 profit if you buy 100 avantoe seeds.

 

 

Conclusion: Growing snapdragons yields a marginally higher profit than avantoes. Snapdragons indeed require a lot more money to be invested, but that should really not be a problem, since you only plant 5 seeds per trip, not 100, meaning you can just sell harvested herbs after every trip and buy new seeds.

 

Now, when you add in juju potion, then growing snapdragons becomes a lot more profitable, since you get 33% more herbs per seed. And since snapdragon herbs are worth A LOT more than avantoes, you really shouldn't be growing avantoes. Not to mention you gain more exp from snapdragon picking.

[Quyneax]

Supernoob covered it :thumbup:. One tiny note is that the scroll of life again favours snapdragon.

[lol_wut]

I recently just stopped farming Snapdragons and started farming Avantoes. Snapdragons only put out a little more profit but they require more money invested and have a greater loss if they die.

 

 

The loss you face when they die... I think you are not taking the correct mathematical approach to this.

 

Okay, for the simplicity of this, lets assume that you don't have juju pots nor scroll of life. And lets assume you get 7 herbs per seed. (More like 6.77 if I am not mistaken, but lets take 7.)

 

You buy 100 snapdragon seeds: 60,100x100 = 6,010,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 13,000 = 8,190,000 gp

8190000-6010000 = 2,180,000 profit if you buy 100 snapdragon seeds.

 

You buy 100 avantoe seeds: 2000x100 = 200,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 3500 = 2,205,000

2205000 - 200000 = 2005000 profit if you buy 100 avantoe seeds.

 

 

Conclusion: Growing snapdragons yields a marginally higher profit than avantoes. Snapdragons indeed require a lot more money to be invested, but that should really not be a problem, since you only plant 5 seeds per trip, not 100, meaning you can just sell harvested herbs after every trip and buy new seeds.

 

Now, when you add in juju potion, then growing snapdragons becomes a lot more profitable, since you get 33% more herbs per seed. And since snapdragon herbs are worth A LOT more than avantoes, you really shouldn't be growing avantoes. Not to mention you gain more exp from snapdragon picking.

 

That doesn't mean you're guaranteed that profit. More snap seeds could die and your yield could easily be below average. Assuming both have equal margin of error, the profit from snaps fluctuates a lot more than the profit from avantoe due to the cost of the seeds meaning it could very easily be way below that average. Avantoes being incredibly cheap however, have minimal losses if they die or if a herb run yields less than average so profit is much more consistent than avantoes.

 

The amount of variation in profit margins also matter when picking a herb.

[Quyneax]

Margin of error? You mean standard deviation or something. Yes it would be more likely to lose money, but the point is that snapdragon will make more money in the long run.

[Autist]

lol_wut, you are what we call a "fish" at the poker table. You hear the fish saying sometimes things like "Oh man, I knew I should have folded pocket aces preflop, he had pocket kings and hit the king on the river, fml!"

 

 

I suggest you look up the term "expected value".

 

You can take a life lesson from this, too: Stop worrying about things that are out of your control, and concertate on things you can do to help you.

[lol_wut]

lol_wut, you are what we call a "fish" at the poker table. You hear the fish saying sometimes things like "Oh man, I knew I should have folded pocket aces preflop, he had pocket kings and hit the king on the river, fml!"

 

 

I suggest you look up the term "expected value".

 

You can take a life lesson from this, too: Stop worrying about things that are out of your control, and concertate on things you can do to help you.

 

lolwut

 

look up term "standard deviation" (it's a good reason why gambling is bad btw)

 

Snaps get closer to expected value with a large enough sample size, but if you don't farm enough there's a pretty high probability you will not make as much or even lose money. Obviously the average for snaps is higher, but the point is that you should probably CONSIDER how likely it is you're going to consistently average that high of a profit with regards to a timeframe for farming snaps.

[Autist]

Okay, I see that I may have come off as a bit of a douchebag in my last post. Sorry about that.

 

To clarify:

 

You are indeed not guaranteed to get 630 herbs off of 90 seeds. Heck, you might get stuck with the lower end of variance and only get herbs from 80 seeds out of 100, sometimes.

 

Then, again, sometimes you may get 95, 98, or even 100.

 

Embrace the variance, don't reject it. There is no reason to reject variance in RuneScape, as long as the thing you are doing generates profit in the long run.

[Autist]

 

lolwut

 

look up term "standard deviation" (it's a good reason why gambling is bad btw)

 

Snaps get closer to expected value with a large enough sample size, but if you don't farm enough there's a pretty high probability you will not make as much or even lose money. Obviously the average for snaps is higher, but the point is that you should probably CONSIDER how likely it is you're going to consistently average that high of a profit with regards to a timeframe for farming snaps.

 

I don't have to look it up, I deal with this term almost daily.

 

I am not entirely sure why you brought up gambling in your post (probably because I mentioned poker?)

Sorry, I just need to explain, although the period in my poker career is long over when I felt the urge to explain everyone why poker is not gambling.

 

You seem like a reasonable guy, so I think you will understand this:

 

Poker is played human-vs-human, and as long as you have better knowledge of the game than your opponent, you will win money, at least in the long run. And if you play 16-24 tables of poker at a time online, the long run arrives pretty quickly.

 

You can PM if you have interest in this, and we can discuss it. :)

 

 

Cheers.

[Sir_Squab]

Um, yeah, as they said, over time your profits will average out. What you call the "margin of error" is, as pointed out, better known as standard deviation. Over a large enough sample size, or period of time, the effect of that becomes minimal and next to non-existent.

 

That being said, if you aren't using jujus I could easily see why you'd do avantoes. I'd rather take the 8% loss while farming then deal with losing snapdragon patches, despite the fact that in the long run, snaps WILL gain more profit, assuming supernoobs calculations are right.

 

Without jujus. On the other hand, I've been farming snapdragons for the past little while WITH jujus.

 

Oh and half the posts here, I always think the person is starting off with a trolling, sarcastic remark of "lolwut" then it's like....right, the OP's naaaamee...

[SirIzenhime]

you average 6.5 herbs (or is it 6.8?) per seed you plant, and this is accounting for deaths, while using super compost and magic secatures (which there is almost no reason you shouldn't have both), but not using Juju potions

 

with juju potions, you average 9.75 per, still accounting for deaths.

 

If you have a scroll of life (which you should, no reason not to), without Juju potions, the current best herb for profit is snapdragons, followed by Ranarr > Toadflax > Kwaurm

With Juju potions, torstol pull far ahead. Followed once again by Snapdragon > Ranarr > kwaurm.

 

In the short run, safer priced herbs like Kwaurm might make you more money, but once you start planting more seeds, it doesn't take long for ranarr and snapdragon to catch up and pass.

 

Torstol should NOT be farmed unless you are using Juju potions...in which case if you have the level, there is little reason to not farm them

[Sir_Squab]

you average 6.5 herbs (or is it 6.8?) per seed you plant, and this is accounting for deaths, while using super compost and magic secatures (which there is almost no reason you shouldn't have both), but not using Juju potions

 

with juju potions, you average 9.75 per, still accounting for deaths.

 

If you have a scroll of life (which you should, no reason not to), without Juju potions, the current best herb for profit is snapdragons, followed by Ranarr > Toadflax > Kwaurm

With Juju potions, torstol pull far ahead. Followed once again by Snapdragon > Ranarr > kwaurm.

 

In the short run, safer priced herbs like Kwaurm might make you more money, but once you start planting more seeds, it doesn't take long for ranarr and snapdragon to catch up and pass.

 

Torstol should NOT be farmed unless you are using Juju potions...in which case if you have the level, there is little reason to not farm them

 

Even with deaths? Something I've been meaning to ask for a while, a few deaths there could really hurt...

[SirIzenhime]

the average herb yield of 6.5 and 9.75 accounts for deaths...so yes.

[R3moteman]

I recently just stopped farming Snapdragons and started farming Avantoes. Snapdragons only put out a little more profit but they require more money invested and have a greater loss if they die.

 

 

The loss you face when they die... I think you are not taking the correct mathematical approach to this.

 

Okay, for the simplicity of this, lets assume that you don't have juju pots nor scroll of life. And lets assume you get 7 herbs per seed. (More like 6.77 if I am not mistaken, but lets take 7.)

 

You buy 100 snapdragon seeds: 60,100x100 = 6,010,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 13,000 = 8,190,000 gp

8190000-6010000 = 2,180,000 profit if you buy 100 snapdragon seeds.

 

You buy 100 avantoe seeds: 2000x100 = 200,000

10% of the seeds die. So, when buying 100 seeds, you get herbs from 90 seeds.

90 X 7 = 630 herbs

630 X 3500 = 2,205,000

2205000 - 200000 = 2005000 profit if you buy 100 avantoe seeds.

 

 

Conclusion: Growing snapdragons yields a marginally higher profit than avantoes. Snapdragons indeed require a lot more money to be invested, but that should really not be a problem, since you only plant 5 seeds per trip, not 100, meaning you can just sell harvested herbs after every trip and buy new seeds.

 

Now, when you add in juju potion, then growing snapdragons becomes a lot more profitable, since you get 33% more herbs per seed. And since snapdragon herbs are worth A LOT more than avantoes, you really shouldn't be growing avantoes. Not to mention you gain more exp from snapdragon picking.

 

I pretty much said the same as you, but i prefer to miss out the extra 7k per run that snapdragons give over avantoes and have an extra 200k+ in the bank to spend/invest on whatever.

 

Edit: this is with scroll of life and without juju.

[Dexek]

Unless you're going to stop farming after a small number of seeds, it's best to go for snaps/torstol. It's also worth training up for Juju potions. In the past 1k seeds I have averaged 11.8 herbs/patch. (This also includes the scroll of life offsetting me with more seeds, but it was 1k seeds bought)