Kim Jong-il died

[obfuscator]

Though it may seem that Kim Jong-il's death might be a good thing, it is in fact quite the reverse: his son and successor is not prepared to lead, and the probable power struggle within the party could do lasting damage to Korea (north and south).

It could also lead to a full-scale revolution in NK resulting in democratic rule (although I admit this is unlikely).

I think that we can pretty much rule out something along those lines happening - NK makes Gaddafi's Libya look like a beacon of liberalism, while its propaganda is far, far more effective than any Arab spring country.

Even communist Russia converted to "democracy" eventually; you certainly can't rule out NK. The situation isn't great there, it's entirely possible that public opinion could boil over if KJU comes across as weak or otherwise fails to live up to his father and grandfather's reputations.

[mcneilp]

Vice Travel's guide to North Korea

 

Well worth a watch.

 

 

The dude was insane although I do find the whole extent of his brainwashing/bullshitting facsinating.

[The Dark Lord]

Very sad day indeed. He was truly a national hero for North Korea who did well for his people.

[Crocefisso]

Though it may seem that Kim Jong-il's death might be a good thing, it is in fact quite the reverse: his son and successor is not prepared to lead, and the probable power struggle within the party could do lasting damage to Korea (north and south).

It could also lead to a full-scale revolution in NK resulting in democratic rule (although I admit this is unlikely).

I think that we can pretty much rule out something along those lines happening - NK makes Gaddafi's Libya look like a beacon of liberalism, while its propaganda is far, far more effective than any Arab spring country.

Even communist Russia converted to "democracy" eventually; you certainly can't rule out NK. The situation isn't great there, it's entirely possible that public opinion could boil over if KJU comes across as weak or otherwise fails to live up to his father and grandfather's reputations.

Of course the Kim family dynasty will come to an end eventually, but the idea that it's going to unravel quickly as a result of Kim Jong-il's death is the sort of nonsense that our Foreign Ministers tell us. Perhaps in ten years time after a bitter and factional power struggle in the party, but there's no way that a carefully created propaganda infrastructure is going to collapse in an Arab Spring type way just because of this one man's death.

[Furah]

I've heard rumours that Hung Sing, son of Hung Wel, will most likely take position as leader.

[obfuscator]

Though it may seem that Kim Jong-il's death might be a good thing, it is in fact quite the reverse: his son and successor is not prepared to lead, and the probable power struggle within the party could do lasting damage to Korea (north and south).

It could also lead to a full-scale revolution in NK resulting in democratic rule (although I admit this is unlikely).

I think that we can pretty much rule out something along those lines happening - NK makes Gaddafi's Libya look like a beacon of liberalism, while its propaganda is far, far more effective than any Arab spring country.

Even communist Russia converted to "democracy" eventually; you certainly can't rule out NK. The situation isn't great there, it's entirely possible that public opinion could boil over if KJU comes across as weak or otherwise fails to live up to his father and grandfather's reputations.

Of course the Kim family dynasty will come to an end eventually, but the idea that it's going to unravel quickly as a result of Kim Jong-il's death is the sort of nonsense that our Foreign Ministers tell us. Perhaps in ten years time after a bitter and factional power struggle in the party, but there's no way that a carefully created propaganda infrastructure is going to collapse in an Arab Spring type way just because of this one man's death.

 

And I disagree. History is full of examples of weak heirs to the throne (KJI was a monarch, if not by title) failing to hold together a country that their father did. The situation in NK is already fairly delicate; I don't think it will take much to push the population over the edge.

[Fresi]

Vice Travel's guide to North Korea

 

Well worth a watch.

 

 

The dude was insane although I do find the whole extent of his brainwashing/bullshitting facsinating.

 

very worth watching :) if u have 50 mins to spare do it

 

I just wonder how many ppl in north Korea realize they are being brainwashed, and how many underground movements there are working, guess we will not get to know until something dramatic happens.

sad to see a country that would need its work force to fed and contribute to everyone's good, being used for nothing.

[Crocefisso]

Though it may seem that Kim Jong-il's death might be a good thing, it is in fact quite the reverse: his son and successor is not prepared to lead, and the probable power struggle within the party could do lasting damage to Korea (north and south).

It could also lead to a full-scale revolution in NK resulting in democratic rule (although I admit this is unlikely).

I think that we can pretty much rule out something along those lines happening - NK makes Gaddafi's Libya look like a beacon of liberalism, while its propaganda is far, far more effective than any Arab spring country.

Even communist Russia converted to "democracy" eventually; you certainly can't rule out NK. The situation isn't great there, it's entirely possible that public opinion could boil over if KJU comes across as weak or otherwise fails to live up to his father and grandfather's reputations.

Of course the Kim family dynasty will come to an end eventually, but the idea that it's going to unravel quickly as a result of Kim Jong-il's death is the sort of nonsense that our Foreign Ministers tell us. Perhaps in ten years time after a bitter and factional power struggle in the party, but there's no way that a carefully created propaganda infrastructure is going to collapse in an Arab Spring type way just because of this one man's death.

 

And I disagree. History is full of examples of weak heirs to the throne (KJI was a monarch, if not by title) failing to hold together a country that their father did. The situation in NK is already fairly delicate; I don't think it will take much to push the population over the edge.

The situation is only delicate on an international level. Domestically, we do ourselves a disservice by downplaying, as we too often do, the effectiveness of the state propaganda mechanisms in North Korea.

[obfuscator]

The situation is only delicate on an international level. Domestically, we do ourselves a disservice by downplaying, as we too often do, the effectiveness of the state propaganda mechanisms in North Korea.

Oh, so widespread famines and an awful economy don't make for a delicate domestic situation?

[Crocefisso]

The situation is only delicate on an international level. Domestically, we do ourselves a disservice by downplaying, as we too often do, the effectiveness of the state propaganda mechanisms in North Korea.

Oh, so widespread famines and an awful economy don't make for a delicate domestic situation?

Though the economy is indeed in a dire state, the famine ended in 1998 and the economy has been improving for years; when it was at its worst in the 1990s, there were no signs of unrest at all. Why should there be in better times. Meanwhile, the regime has continued the most thorough indoctrination of a nation and has some 9 million troops at its disposal - as much as we may wish it, we cannot lie to ourselves that the regime is anything other than strong when compared to Gaddafi, Mubarak, Ben Ali, or any other of this year's fallen dictators.

 

You were right in saying that the fall of the North Korean regime is an eventuality as per the USSR, but in terms of that analogy, then Kim Jong-il's death is comparable to Stalin's, or perhaps Brezhnev's at best - there is still a long way to go.

[obfuscator]

The situation is only delicate on an international level. Domestically, we do ourselves a disservice by downplaying, as we too often do, the effectiveness of the state propaganda mechanisms in North Korea.

Oh, so widespread famines and an awful economy don't make for a delicate domestic situation?

Though the economy is indeed in a dire state, the famine ended in 1998 and the economy has been improving for years; when it was at its worst in the 1990s, there were no signs of unrest at all. Why should there be in better times. Meanwhile, the regime has continued the most thorough indoctrination of a nation and has some 9 million troops at its disposal - as much as we may wish it, we cannot lie to ourselves that the regime is anything other than strong when compared to Gaddafi, Mubarak, Ben Ali, or any other of this year's fallen dictators.

 

You were right in saying that the fall of the North Korean regime is an eventuality as per the USSR, but in terms of that analogy, then Kim Jong-il's death is comparable to Stalin's, or perhaps Brezhnev's at best - there is still a long way to go.

 

9 million? Try 1.2 million. source

 

I agree that it's stronger than the arab dictatorships, I just don't see it as an impossibility that it could fail. But time will tell.

[Vezon Dash]

They all believed that he was a god. I'm not sure that they are interested in starting a different type of government at the moment.

[sees_all1]

I wonder how many 5 year plans he went through...

[Crocefisso]

The situation is only delicate on an international level. Domestically, we do ourselves a disservice by downplaying, as we too often do, the effectiveness of the state propaganda mechanisms in North Korea.

Oh, so widespread famines and an awful economy don't make for a delicate domestic situation?

Though the economy is indeed in a dire state, the famine ended in 1998 and the economy has been improving for years; when it was at its worst in the 1990s, there were no signs of unrest at all. Why should there be in better times. Meanwhile, the regime has continued the most thorough indoctrination of a nation and has some 9 million troops at its disposal - as much as we may wish it, we cannot lie to ourselves that the regime is anything other than strong when compared to Gaddafi, Mubarak, Ben Ali, or any other of this year's fallen dictators.

 

You were right in saying that the fall of the North Korean regime is an eventuality as per the USSR, but in terms of that analogy, then Kim Jong-il's death is comparable to Stalin's, or perhaps Brezhnev's at best - there is still a long way to go.

 

9 million? Try 1.2 million. source

 

I agree that it's stronger than the arab dictatorships, I just don't see it as an impossibility that it could fail. But time will tell.

Of course the US State Department is going to downplay the size of NK's armed forces. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies in Britain, the Korean People's Army in 2010 had 1.1 million active personnel and 8.2 million reserve.

 

But let's not get bogged down in fact throwing. I just wish I could share your optimism over the short term future of North Korea.

[Crocefisso]

^ I provided the source, but had to edit it back in because I accidentally posted prematurely.