r2-pleasent Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Well, a few of you might have read my earlier thread about the developments of Merchanting throughout the past year. I figured it would be quite fitting to update it close to New Year's 2006, and this is the closest I could get :) To see the original thread check here http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=300 ... erchanting UPDATE - Jan 1st 2006 Well, I believe I made this topic way back in August. Seems fitting to update it, as there are many transformations that have taken place in the past 5 months. September of 2006 saw rises in Rares across the board. Prices began soaring, as players began regaining confidence in Discontinued Items. Fally Park World 2 became alive with Party Hat merchants once again, and a whole new Small Rare section was created to the East. Small Rares were the talk of the month, as they were rising at rates that seemed impossible at the time. Everyone seemed to be jumping on the Mask and Santa wagon, as prices doubled within only a few weeks. However, these growth spurts were short lived, and eventually resulted in a 4 month-long drop (which continues today). September Small Rare Peaks: Santas - 6 Mil Red Masks - 9 Mil Blue Masks - 6 Mil Green Masks - 5 Mil Mask Sets - 20 Mil As Halloween grew closer, players immediately began panicking. Masks plummeted, and Santas took a reasonable hit as well. However, for the first time in RS2, Party Hats continued to rise despite the Small-Rare crash. Due to the much slower, and steadier increases in Party Hats, and also thanks to the healthy Party Hat Merchanting community, highlighted by big spenders Stevenxu, Clubber11 and the power-seller Wp Sk8ordie, prices continued on an upward slope. Many merchants began re-exitting the market, losing millions on the Small Rare bubble. October Party Hat Prices: Blue - 70M White - 50M Red - 39M Green - 32M Yellow - 28M Purple - 25M Cracker - 60M As Halloween passed, Masks continued their downward spiral. Santas seemed to stay in the 5-6 Mil area, seeing a 1 Mil rise in late October. Yet, despite the approaching Christmas Holiday, there was no "Holiday Rise" for the first time in RS2's history. The market had obviously adjusted to the absurd price increases that used to take place leading up to the 25th, which left many players extremely disappointed. Party Hats seemed untouchable, continuing their steady rise, while being merchanted by many new faces. Merchants like Samael88 and Fredmcgarry began building their wealth up solely from Party Hat merchanting. November Rare Prices: Blue - 85M White - 65M Red - 50M Green - 40M Yellow - 33M Purple - 30M Red Mask - 6M Blue Mask - 4M Green Mask - 3.3M Mask Set - 13.3M Santa Hats - 5.5M Each People had begun completely losing hope in Small Rares by November. The Santa rise that enchanted Runescape investors in 2004-05 was quite obviously not going to repeat itself in 2005-06. It was also quite obvious that as Christmas approached, Santas had nowhere to go but down. I had 70 on me before the drop, and managed to sell 25 off before it hit. The prices began dipping in early December when renowned staker Merak11111 sold off his Santa collection; a good 150-200 Santa Hats publicly. His prices were 200-300K below the average market value, and players panicked simaultaneously with the creation of his post. By the end of the month, Santas were back down to under 4 Mil. Party Hats continued to surprise many investors, continuing to increase through the Holidays, at which time many people predicted their crashing point. December Rare Prices: Blue - 95M White - 70M Red - 55M Green - 45M Yellow - 38M Purple - 35M The Small Rare crash following the holidays was significant in the sense that, for the first time in years, Rares began reacting individually. Party Hats were increasing at healthy rates, while Masks and Santas were in the midst of an extreme drop. January, however, was a great month overall for Small Rares and Party Hats alike. Party Hats saw their largest rises this month, as Blues shot up nearly 75% in only a month. Small Rares began recovering, as Mask Sets rose from 14M to their peak of 19M for a few days. They currently sell for 17.5M-18M, which is quite close to their peak in September. Respectable Party Hat merchants for this month include Fredmcgarry and Wp Sk8ordie, who have both beaten inflation, and are increasing their wealth daily. Current Rare Values Blue - 165M-170M White - 113M Red - 89M Green - 72M Yellow - 63M Purple - 56.5M Cracker - 115M Mask Set - 17.7M Santa Hats - 4.5M Where Are They Now? Stevenxu - Logs in from time to time, but is quite busy with college. A great merchant and a very well-mannered player. Clubber11 - One of the richer players I've met. This Clubber account was not his main, and he kept to himself. I often asked him what his main was, but he always managed to change the subject :P Wp Sk8ordie - Has recently returned to the Party Hat Market. One of the best merchants I've seen, and is quite well-mannered in-game. Fredmcgarry - One of the cooler Merchants around, he still sells quite a few Party Hats a day. I've never seen him participate in Price Manipulation either, which is quite easy to succumb to when dealing with under 4-5 Hats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artem_art Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 good work :) with prices and they are about what they where about that time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dragon312 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 wow nice but look the rise of p hats o.0 luckily i buyed mine back in 2002 or sumthing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
artem_art Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 wow nice but look the rise of p hats o.0 luckily i buyed mine back in 2002 or sumthing lukey you i sold my red p hat for 2.4 later that day they start going up to 3 and 6 month later it was up around 30 mil :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zonhottie Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 too bad that the prices keep getting up.. Currently training all skills to or above 60. Barrows drops: 87 runs done so far. Torag Platebody on 4th run. Guthan Chainskirt on 35th run. Dharok Helm on 45th run. Torag platelegs on 49th run. Ahrim Robeskirt on 86th run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bob7926 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 very well written r2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3P0int0 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 I'm trying to get into the phat market but when ever i get within a couple mill they seem to rise... oh well barrows the pasts couple days has brought in 5m a day so I'm starting to catch em. But with past experience in mind... buy now they should irse cause luck isn't one of my best of friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dark_hodie Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 r2 ive seen you get upset on world 2 i found it a little funny it was recently after their was a every so slight and short decline in party hats which lasted like 2-days purples were sellin for 45 occasionally and people were askin 54 still it quickly snapped back to its previous value and i happen to remember the expression "noob" comming out of your character every other chat entry but hey this is a nice little chart or whatever youd like to call it very nice documentation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceBlackIce Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 i wonder why do you jump from december to "current" prices...dont you think that the p hat crash was that important to be in that log of yours? Acording to you was minor and proved that the p hat market is healthy...why not post it? why not explain that the suddent rise of prices was due to a assumption that the 15000 accounts banned had p hats making it less and less, the perfect "excuse" to get the prices higher... im not picking on you, cause i respect you and all other players, and i hope to get one p hat someday (in a very long time, maybe when they are like 1billion) but i think that if you going to post a some kind of log you should post all and not ommit things...other than that good job *** [ END ]: You gained 1,671,000 thieving exp in 9mins 44secs. That's 10,300,684 exp/h.Dragon Drops - 1 Skirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tskolar Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 heh i sold skord around half of his 98 smithing a year or so back.... remember the crazy bargaining we had on those mith and and addy bars then :=) Nice to see him doing well...keep up da good work bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tskolar Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 ohh and Ice-phats rose to more or less their current value before the ban. Maybe there was a leak :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satenza Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 I always see you around pleasent. I'm hoping for another crash. With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xpddsapx Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 bluess went wayyy up after the 2 big bannes because my bro gave me a phat set lmaf0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 sad rea;;y Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Legend_dragoon Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 im an EX- Phat merchant, i left the industry when i decided to get 91 RC so i can rely on my income even more, any way thats besides the point, when i used to merchant party hats, they go up around 50m more than there "original price" then fall, then go higher and there "original price" goes up 10m, this time its around 90M over "original price" for blue, and other party hats are going up too, im sorry to say that the price of party hats will fall very strongly in the next month or two, which could be a bad thing for people, but after a couple months after that it will rise Brnz--4rr0wz94 Magic, 61 Combat :D GF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceBlackIce Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 i dont think they will fall that much...they will ge higher and higher as jagex makes ways of people getting more money faster and faster (barrows, whips) and people getting stronger (more chains drops and such) and skiller (91 rc). So in resume, p hats will always rise because more and more people will be able to afford one, im not talking about the mid players but those 2% of all players who will want one. It doesnt matter how high it will go because those persons will get the money somehow. *** [ END ]: You gained 1,671,000 thieving exp in 9mins 44secs. That's 10,300,684 exp/h.Dragon Drops - 1 Skirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWIKK89 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 i hate that i got scammed...........dam clan i had a green mask!! Sorry for the off-topicness, but is that the god for Pastafarians? I've heard so much about these cultists/teenagers/people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r2-pleasent Posted January 31, 2006 Author Share Posted January 31, 2006 i wonder why do you jump from december to "current" prices...dont you think that the p hat crash was that important to be in that log of yours? Acording to you was minor and proved that the p hat market is healthy...why not post it? why not explain that the suddent rise of prices was due to a assumption that the 15000 accounts banned had p hats making it less and less, the perfect "excuse" to get the prices higher... im not picking on you, cause i respect you and all other players, and i hope to get one p hat someday (in a very long time, maybe when they are like 1billion) but i think that if you going to post a some kind of log you should post all and not ommit things...other than that good job Phats havent really "crashed" since last June, so I have no idea what you're talking about. As far as the rise after the ban, that was greatly exaggerated. Blues had alread hit 150M before the ban came into play, and really weren't affected. People charged maybe 5% more for their Hats during the morning of the ban, but that was where it ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duke_Freedom Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 I personally think some of the active merchants are overspeculating on phats. Though the recent bannings may have played a small positive factor, I think that the current rises in phats, roughly 70 - 100% up in only 2 months are going too fast, at least relatively to the minor rares. The value of my bank at its height. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 250 billion+.Most likely the largest trade in RuneScape ever. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 70 billion+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceBlackIce Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Phats havent really "crashed" since last June, so I have no idea what you're talking about. As far as the rise after the ban, that was greatly exaggerated. Blues had alread hit 150M before the ban came into play, and really weren't affected. People charged maybe 5% more for their Hats during the morning of the ban, but that was where it ended. ok here's a post you may find familiar Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2006 2:06 am Post subject: Party Hat Drop Indicates a Healthy Market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, many of you know, there was a semi-serious Party Hat crash. In the early morning, prices began skyrocketting (Yellows went from 45M to 52M overnight, Whites from 80M to 90M), which resulted in prices much above the Market Equilibrium. At around 12 PM ET, the prices on Party Hats began dropping significantly. Buyers were nowhere to be found, and on the rare occasion that you did find someone interested in a Phat, he was buying it with another Hat + cash. I was lucky enough to be in the market during this whole shift in demand, and managed to sell off my Hats quite early on. ... ... ... So you're saying that 20M in roughly 2 weeks is a normal thing and the ban didnt have anything to do with it? *** [ END ]: You gained 1,671,000 thieving exp in 9mins 44secs. That's 10,300,684 exp/h.Dragon Drops - 1 Skirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nazgul740 Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 pitiful 170-180 for a blue phat is crazy.... i like rares and such but thats just stupid there is no reason for it to ever hop over 120-130mill i have played rs for well over a year and the max amount of cash that i have ever had was something like 8million gps... to even think of getting even 20 million is crazy.... with just one blue hat you could get range to 99 useing a cannon and mage to 99 useing bloods... i have supported rares for awhile its fun to make a nice profit of maybe 1 or even 2 mill after holding onto a rare for awhile... but these new prices are unobtainable for anyone who isnt eather a merchant already or plays 24/7 this is just one more reason for me to quit rs :cry: New sigzor^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satenza Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Pleasent didnt you have a hand in the phat prices crashing? Anyway i agree. I have nothing against these sort of prices but they are just way too unaffordable for 99.9% of runescape. Although i understand that the rares is what holds the econemy together. i eman i have had a few rares before and there nice to have. So i dont blame people for rising there price. Having said that there massive prices also holds the econemy together. People always strive for more. Therefore people mine, merchant, do everything they do really for the underlying factor of either respect or money. With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wesselthrash Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 K.. Im now thinking back to the christmas holiday drop with the christmas crackers.. I couldn't be online that day.. :shock: :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Satenza Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Yeh, i had a pink after there was like thousands of them. Then sold for like 200k. :s With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luke Posted January 31, 2006 Share Posted January 31, 2006 Nice thread, enjoyed reading it. De_Pk - Level 117 - Banned September 30th '06. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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