January 31, 200620 yr Not naming names but did anyone involved in the duping get away with a non perm ban? With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed.
January 31, 200620 yr ah , guess i'll sell my blues when they are 200m+ Some people dream of success, while others make it happen.
January 31, 200620 yr Author Not naming names but did anyone involved in the duping get away with a non perm ban? I've heard a few stories from different people, but nothing confirmed. One player, X Anthrax X, was supposedly involved in the dupe, and was for sure not perm banned. However, the last time I saw him, he was running around Fally giving free stuff away (he gave me a Mask Set). This was over a year ago though, I haven't seen him online since then. Phats havent really "crashed" since last June, so I have no idea what you're talking about. As far as the rise after the ban, that was greatly exaggerated. Blues had alread hit 150M before the ban came into play, and really weren't affected. People charged maybe 5% more for their Hats during the morning of the ban, but that was where it ended. ok here's a post you may find familiar Posted: Sat Jan 07, 2006 2:06 am Post subject: Party Hat Drop Indicates a Healthy Market -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Yesterday, many of you know, there was a semi-serious Party Hat crash. In the early morning, prices began skyrocketting (Yellows went from 45M to 52M overnight, Whites from 80M to 90M), which resulted in prices much above the Market Equilibrium. At around 12 PM ET, the prices on Party Hats began dropping significantly. Buyers were nowhere to be found, and on the rare occasion that you did find someone interested in a Phat, he was buying it with another Hat + cash. I was lucky enough to be in the market during this whole shift in demand, and managed to sell off my Hats quite early on. ... ... ... So you're saying that 20M in roughly 2 weeks is a normal thing and the ban didnt have anything to do with it? I suppose my lingo is somewhat misleading. When I call something a "Crash", it means that prices not only drop, but stay down for a long period of time afterwards. The drop I was talking about in the post you quoted could not be considered as a crash, as Party Hats ended up re-rising within the next few days.
January 31, 200620 yr ...when reknown staker Merak11111... seeing as you were using correct english all the way through, i just wanted u to suggest that you change it to Renowned which fits gramaticaly. Not critisising - sure it's just a typo
February 1, 200620 yr pitiful 170-180 for a blue phat is crazy.... i like rares and such but thats just stupid there is no reason for it to ever hop over 120-130mill i have played rs for well over a year and the max amount of cash that i have ever had was something like 8million gps... to even think of getting even 20 million is crazy.... with just one blue hat you could get range to 99 useing a cannon and mage to 99 useing bloods... i have supported rares for awhile its fun to make a nice profit of maybe 1 or even 2 mill after holding onto a rare for awhile... but these new prices are unobtainable for anyone who isnt eather a merchant already or plays 24/7 this is just one more reason for me to quit rs :cry: This is exactly what i think will happen to phats in in the near future. New players and even old ones who havent amassed cash will be so disgusted with phat prices that they ll leave the phat market completely alone. R2 and Ducky seem to think that the recent rise in rare items is a sign of economical health in the rs market. But when i check the rares forums i only see ppl who are flipping rares ( buying one and selling the same phat in the next minute) and hardly anyone who has any intention of actuallly keeping wht he or she purchased. Might be different in fallly2......but havent been there in peak hours for some time now.
February 1, 200620 yr Well no big news, I guess phats will just continue to rise, just as they always have. I'll laugh if they reach 1 billion. :P The Runescape Wilderness - Meili's Blog
February 1, 200620 yr This is exactly what i think will happen to phats in in the near future. New players and even old ones who havent amassed cash will be so disgusted with phat prices that they ll leave the phat market completely alone. You are forgetting one thing. What you say is exactly what people said when blues reached ~30mil when they reached ~50mil, when reached ~70mil, when they reached 100mil, and now, now they reached ~170mil. Prices of phats will always remain to continue upwards if the game mechanics don't change too much. R2 and Ducky seem to think that the recent rise in rare items is a sign of economical health in the rs market. But when i check the rares forums i only see ppl who are flipping rares ( buying one and selling the same phat in the next minute) and hardly anyone who has any intention of actuallly keeping wht he or she purchased. Might be different in fallly2......but havent been there in peak hours for some time now. Healthy is different.. Like I said, 70 - 100% in 2 months is on the very high side. On the other hand, I can't see a drop / crash occur. More likely we won't see the prices continue to go up as much soon though. It's gonna depend on the investors though, the people who buy rares and let them sit for ages. If various of them do decide to sell of their stock (which isn't too unrealistic with the current prices), price may drop anyway. The value of my bank at its height. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 250 billion+.Most likely the largest trade in RuneScape ever. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 70 billion+.
February 1, 200620 yr What you say is exactly what people said when blues reached ~30mil when they reached ~50mil, when reached ~70mil, when they reached 100mil, and now, now they reached ~170mil. Prices of phats will always remain to continue upwards if the game mechanics don't change too much. There is a slight difference in the situation imo. When the prices of blues were between 50 mill and 70 mill a lot of ppl were able to make close to tht amount in a matter of days. Now only really dedicated 91 rc, rich 2 char mage guild swichers, 24 7 merchants, lucky, dag and kq killers, and also lucky 85 slayers and stakers are likely to "make" 10mill per day. So it would take around 17 days of really non stop work for an experienced rs player to get enough to buy a single blue hat. Back when the prices were round 70mill ( im leaving out the 2 recent rises ..the first casue i think that it happend beacause of transference of all gp founds into rares (bank pics of a lot of players kinda support this idea).....and the second because u urself claimed prices are likely to be a bit inflated) a lot more ppl were pulling in 10mill daily. And when the prices were 50m ea u had even a larger group of ppl doing so. I agree with ur statement tht the prices of phats will "always remain to continue upwards if the game mechanics don't change too much". But to claim that they are gonna continue to rise at the current rate or slow to it is completely naive. There is absolutely no fundation for such a prediction. Wht drives the phat prices up is not gp entering the economy but concentrated wealth. If there is no possibility offered to players in that perspective then prices will become stagnant. Real soon.
February 1, 200620 yr There is absolutely no fundation for such a prediction. Wht drives the phat prices up is not gp entering the economy but concentrated wealth. If there is no possibility offered to players in that perspective then prices will become stagnant. Real soon. Hm, I disagree. Gp inflation just isn't as evident as the [bleep]es caused by concentrated wealth. Gp inflation works on the long term. Concentrated wealth (like the Slayer-richness, which was in effect about 9 months ago) causes quick heavy [bleep]es in the price, a short term effect, which only plays a minor role in the price goal of rares on the long term. Also, your 17-day figure does not impress me in any way. In opposite to your interpretation, I think that it is very fast and that it shows that phats are far from reaching a serious long-term-stagnation yet. There might not be many of such people who can make so much, but there aren't that many phats in game either. The value of my bank at its height. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 250 billion+.Most likely the largest trade in RuneScape ever. Estimated value at the peak of the rares market: 70 billion+.
February 1, 200620 yr Author The Party Hat rise this year is likely being fueled by the overwhelming amount of autoers still present in the game. When players are mining 50 Mil worth of Rune Ess in a week, without even having to click, the price of 170M on Blue really doesn't seem that high. These days, it's not uncommon to see people offering to buy Party Hats by paying completely in Raw Materials, which although it does not provide direct proof of autoing, shows how serious the problem really is. If Jagex can continue to scout for these players, and implement some greater form of auto-detection into the game, I believe it would greatly slow the rises we are seeing in Party Hats. Obviously inflation is still a rampant problem in Runescape, but it seems Jagex has acknowledged this, finally, and seem to be working on ways to balance the gold entering and exitting the game, albeit at a slow pace. Should inflation, and the autoing problem be dealt with, I could not see Party Hats increasing much more than 25-50% a year, which really isn't that big a rise.
February 1, 200620 yr i really all the discontinued items should be taken out of the games not becuase i dont have enough moeny for a phat, that its really stupid that people are making money off of a mass ban not criticizing ppl who have a lot phats ( cuz i cant even think about the hell they went through to get them ) but i think it would just be a better game overall dont wanna get flamed for being " a poor newb who cant afford a phat" cuz thats whats happened a lot lol
February 2, 200620 yr Great guide..though i will never be able to afford a phat You need massive amounts of money to make money with phats. Even if i could stand rcing all the money for a phat by the time i would have made al the nats, phats would have risen so much that i wouldn't have the money. Plus i Hate merchanting :lol: cant make more then 100k an hour on it :roll:
February 2, 200620 yr What we need is an NPC merchant who buys and sells all the party hats in unlimited amounts at the current market price. That way nobody loses money, the partyhats stay a symbol of wealth but all the speculation will be gone.
February 2, 200620 yr What we need is an NPC merchant who buys and sells all the party hats in unlimited amounts at the current market price. That way nobody loses money, the partyhats stay a symbol of wealth but all the speculation will be gone. how do they can know the prices and i dont think that will work actually but hey thats just me
February 2, 200620 yr Author What we need is an NPC merchant who buys and sells all the party hats in unlimited amounts at the current market price. That way nobody loses money, the partyhats stay a symbol of wealth but all the speculation will be gone. Yeah, we really need a shop handing out 100's of Mils in cash to players for their Rares. That'd really help the economy /sarcasm
February 2, 200620 yr Guess i'll stick to merching guthan's... lol... If they really are doubling, i'll have no chance of getting that blue piece of paper
February 2, 200620 yr If prices for "big rares" keep rising as theyve been doing, crackers will soon be gone. When both white and red phats are worth more than crackers, I think some ppl might try their luck getting blue, white or red phat and crank out some profit.
February 2, 200620 yr clubber11 does not play runescape anymore. right before he left , he told me his main account was 99 slayer , and thats all he would say. ( hinting at his main accounts name ) clubber11 also told me that him and his boss from work shared the account. thats right...shared it. as a " group bank account " a few people shared the money that was on clubber11 , it was like a biggy bank for all the members of this " clan " per-say. anyways , thats the last i ever saw of clubber11 , and stevenxu rarely logs on. he still comes on msn every so often , he is probably one of the nicest people to ever play runescape :D r2 , this was a great summery of this years prices , and standings on the rare market. keep up the good work. 8) 1103'rd to 99 crafting830th to 99 herblore~!~ Master Merchant ~!~
February 2, 200620 yr Very nice R2. Although Im not a 'merchant' but more of an invester or retailer, I havent bought any rares off you. I did however buy a yellow for like 45m off Fredmcgarry and sold about 2 weeks later for 63. Bought my White about a week ago for 97 and now seeing 118 offers, so Im doing good. I like Fred & Wp. Both cool guys who are always in the Discontinued Items. Keep it up guys :D
February 3, 200620 yr I've heard a few stories from different people, but nothing confirmed. One player, X Anthrax X, was supposedly involved in the dupe, and was for sure not perm banned. However, the last time I saw him, he was running around Fally giving free stuff away (he gave me a Mask Set). This was over a year ago though, I haven't seen him online since then. Im sure everybody with th adequate software and know how did some duping. Theres probably a few more still out there. Coding marconer programms and such. Anyway, the prices will always raise. People who say 'oo everybody will see there worthless and nobody will ever buy and they'll be 1gp' know nothing. Theres plently of demmand at least or the whites and under. Even a blue can be sold in a day at the most. I also beleive that there are a lot of phats sitting inaccounts and we will se a sudden influx of these not active ones soon. With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed.
February 3, 200620 yr Author I've heard a few stories from different people, but nothing confirmed. One player, X Anthrax X, was supposedly involved in the dupe, and was for sure not perm banned. However, the last time I saw him, he was running around Fally giving free stuff away (he gave me a Mask Set). This was over a year ago though, I haven't seen him online since then. Im sure everybody with th adequate software and know how did some duping. Theres probably a few more still out there. Coding marconer programms and such. Anyway, the prices will always raise. People who say 'oo everybody will see there worthless and nobody will ever buy and they'll be 1gp' know nothing. Theres plently of demmand at least or the whites and under. Even a blue can be sold in a day at the most. I also beleive that there are a lot of phats sitting inaccounts and we will se a sudden influx of these not active ones soon. Although I was not actually around for the dupe, I remember hearing that it only lasted about 1 day, and the software was only passed around among a really close group of friends. I mean, if the software was at all public, Party Hats would be much more widespread. As far as Phats on inactive accounts go, I'm sure there's a few, and it's likely that a certain percentage of these players will eventually return to the game at some point in time. However, 95% of these players have at max 2-3 Party Hats, and why would they suddenly sell them off once they realized how good an investment they've been? If I came back and saw a Party Hat I bought for 5 Mil a little over a year ago suddenly trading at values of 80M+, I would certainly want to hold it for another year. A lot of players theorize about old school players suddenly returning with 10+ Party Hat Sets, and the effects it would have on the economy. The fact is, these players don't exist. I've been Merchanting for well over a year, and I've never seen an unknown player unload any significant amount of Rares into the economy. Even if this was to occur, it would only temporarily lower the prices; in the long term it would just be another growing pain.
February 3, 200620 yr It lasted a day and jagex quickly fixed the bug. Something to do with numbers i think. But as far as the close group of friends goes i think its safe to say that there were at the time quite a few playing. It go out past just that small group of all the duping and was everywhere. When jagex fixed the bug people with like 1billion + in their account after the dupe were banned. And people will massive amounts were also banned. This is why i beleive that more than just those involved at the start were duping. And thats why i think more people did it. At the time pinks were the most expensive, now we see there the least expensive. What an effect that has had and changed the market forever. Why would we see these players return now and not hold on another year? Well, blues are currently going from 100M to 200M in a very small amount of time. Once blues hit there 200M stable price then i specualte we will see a increase in blues. With so many trees in the city you could see the spring coming each day until a night of warm wind would bring it suddenly in one morning. Sometimes the heavy cold rains would beat it back so that it would seem that it would never come and that you were losing a season out of your life. But you knew that there would always be the spring as you knew the river would flow again after it was frozen. When the cold rains kept on and killed the spring, it was as though a young person had died for no reason. In those days though the spring always came finally but it was frightening that it had nearly failed.
February 7, 200620 yr There is absolutely no fundation for such a prediction. Wht drives the phat prices up is not gp entering the economy but concentrated wealth. If there is no possibility offered to players in that perspective then prices will become stagnant. Real soon. Hm, I disagree. Gp inflation just isn't as evident as the [bleep]es caused by concentrated wealth. Gp inflation works on the long term. Concentrated wealth (like the Slayer-richness, which was in effect about 9 months ago) causes quick heavy [bleep]es in the price, a short term effect, which only plays a minor role in the price goal of rares on the long term. Also, your 17-day figure does not impress me in any way. In opposite to your interpretation, I think that it is very fast and that it shows that phats are far from reaching a serious long-term-stagnation yet. There might not be many of such people who can make so much, but there aren't that many phats in game either. Kinda sorry i wasnt able to respond sooner. Afk for a couple of days. Firstoff regarding ur comment. I usually dont post here here to impress u mate. However if id known that that is such a must i would have tried harder. The money making methods that i listed were just examples of quickest routes for a player to get to 170mill. Theoretically quickest routes. To actually submit urself to a 10 hour schedule for 17 days is a completely different matter. I think its more or less obvious that there are only a handful of player who are prepared to subject themselfs to 170 hours of non stop slavework such as rc or swiching. Also beleive that not to many players would agree with ur assesment that 170 hours is a small price to pay to get a blueishly coloured hat. (For example; 170 hours of rc will most likely bring u to at least lvl 91( essence banked naturally) no matter what is ur starting level. 170 hours is also 15mill mage exp ( materials banked), 14mill range exp (materials banked), 9mill melee exp, 8mill pray exp ( materials banked)etc...) But i guess that all depends on how high one values his or hers time. Listed the most popular and/or desirable skills for a reason. With the phat rising at their current rate, NEW, smart, dedicated players will soon be placed infront of a dillema. Would they rather complete the game skillwise or be the proud owners of a blue phat. This is why i was saying that new players will not participate in the phat market. This is why i claimed there is a certain limit to the raise of phats( and of other rares) With raw materials staying foot pricewise and with phats rising at the current rate the dillema will sooner or later stop beeing one.
February 7, 200620 yr Gp inflation just isn't as evident as the [bleep]es caused by concentrated wealth. Gp inflation works on the long term. Concentrated wealth (like the Slayer-richness, which was in effect about 9 months ago) causes quick heavy [bleep]es in the price, a short term effect, which only plays a minor role in the price goal of rares on the long term. Concerning ur inflation theory. U dont offer a single evidence to support the effect of inflation on the rares market. U establish no correlation bewteen rising inflation and the rise in the value of the rares. If there is u could probably come up with some mathematical prediction on how the rares will react in the near future given tht circumstances dont change drastically. Prediction which would be more or less accurate. That u cant do. Let me give u some help with that. Inflation exists u say. Key. No argument there. God knows its very likely. Inflation is increasing. Ok. Well, firstoff lets look at the recent updates and their impact on inflation. In the last couple of months we had four updates for which it could be said that they had any kind of significant impact on the "natural" growth of inflation in rs. The thzarr update, ancient spells, the mage arena update and the increased respawn rate at the mage shops. The effects of the last update were somehow minored by the drop in shop value though. (U also have a number of new quests but due to their continuity we can disregard their impact on inflation.) Ok this are the only four major updates which have any type of singnificant inflation balancing effect. Besides Jagex interventions the rate of inlation must be correlated with the popularity of certain "inlation creating skills" or/and the growth in popularity of the game. The most significant impact on inflation manifested in the rares rising at their current 800 percent per year ( your theory) therefore has to come from the new found popularity of either smithing (nonexistant), crafting(nonexistant) and rc and subsequently fletching ( or the othey way around....dont really care....and not really important) and/or the mass grow in active runescape population. So if ur theory was correct and no change in game mechanics( such as new skills, etc...), as u put it, will be implemented we are likely to see another year of rares rising at the same rate. How could we not? We assume that the rs population will grow at around the same rate, we assume that high level skills will be as obsolete as they are now-if not even more so. This will lead to people devoting even more time to money making skills (fletching, rc, woodcutting, slayer, etc...) Things as usual lets say. So at the end of this year we should be seeing santas at aprox. 50mill ea, purples at aprox. 400mill, reds at aprox. 700mill blues at aprox. 1.4bill. If u tie the growth in value exclusivly to inflation (everything else is just [bleep]es) it seems unreasonable to claim we wont be seeing the rare items coninue to raise at the current rate. That would and should happen if ur theory is on the money. Fortuantaly it isnt. Inflation is not what keeps rares skyrocketing, it is merely the fundation of the process. To put it in easy to understand terms with a simple, hypothethical situation. U, duck freedom, sell all or 12bill worth of rares. U destribute ur 12bill gp between 2mill active players proportionally. Every one of those two mill players is richer by 2000gp. Lets say that Cursed you does the same....every player is now 3500gp richer. Polares does the same......now every player has 5500gp more. 500 other rare holders do the same......now every rs player is 200k for the better. Thousends of phats and other rares are sold. Granted, such a scenario is totally implausible.....but...... would the inflation be the same? Yes. Will the redistribution of wealth be changed slightly? Yes. Would the rares drop in value? Yes. Again im not claiming that inflation hasnt got "any" effect in the rares rise but it would most likely be small compared to the last years rares rise. And just a real economical example. There is a saying in the NY realestate community: ÃÆââ¬Å¡ÃâûNY is devided on 42 good buildings and whats left.ÃÆââ¬Å¡Ãâë The 42 good buildings as they call them are located on Park Avenue and 5th Avenue or in other words just bordering on the Central Park. Those are most prestigious buildings north of equator most likely. I was just reading an article saying that some fool payed 50mill for a condo after he get approved by the buildings council. He bought it from a previous owner, who payed 5mill for it in the 1980s. Im using this example casue as u often stated the actual inflation in the rs-world will allways remain a mistery (and this are the fundations of ur theory) and that u cant predict how the discontinued market will react due to this. Well here its not. U can look up what was the inflation (or gdp) in the state of New York or even for the USA in the last two decades. By the way, the value of the condos on those two streets has got absolutely no relation with their actual worth, living their is prestigious and owning them is allways increasing ur net worth. Kinda same with those hats dont u agree? Do u think that the fact of a 1000 percantage rise in condos value over the last 20 years has got anything to do with inflation( with the new cash flowing around in the world economy) , which was and is is most likely around 2 percantage per year ( off the top of my head) or do u think it has more to do with the fact that the number of billionars in America has jumped for an amazing 3000 percent from the early 80s? In other words, do u think it has got more to do with redistribution of wealth or do u think it has got more to do with inflation? Just wondering.
February 7, 200620 yr Arghhhh, nice discussions, but I always get mad when i read things like this. I used to have a phat, now ill never be able to get one again :x A Guide to Chinning in Ape atoll: up to 325kxp/h!
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