Drop Rate And Fate

[dogfever]

Right. Firstly pseudo random number generation, this is achieved through use of such algorithms as the Mersenne Twister for example which provides an incredibly good approximation to a random number and it is extremely quick. It is literally impossible for a computer to produce a truly random number. So point 1 there.

 

 

 

Secondly in order to assess the drop you obtain Jagex need only specify a range for each drop, i.e. if the random number falls between 0.1 and 0.15 yu get coins, another generator decides how many etc. By narrowing the bounds you can make a drop more rare.

 

 

 

A feature of any random number generator is that it will, occasionally repeat a sequence, with the Mersenne Twister this is once every (2^19937)-1 iterations, so not very likely.

 

 

 

However, the point is that the algorithm doesn't have to repeat itself for you to get the same drops it only needs to generate two sets of numbers, each of which falls within the same bounds as the first. This is far more probable than an actual repetition in the algorithm. The standard method of seed setting is to use the computer clock by the way. Geographical locations etc. would make this less random.

 

 

 

Lastly, regarding luck. Say you want a drop x (a dchain). The probability of getting x is P(x) say 0.0001 which is implemented as R(the random number) lieing between 0.1001 and 0.1002. Therefore at every kill you have a probability of success of 0.0001 and 0.9999 of failure. The upsohot of this is that, yes you might get drop x after 10 kills, it is unlikely, more likely after 10000 kills (about a 50% chance). That's where the luck comes in, check out Binomial Distributions for more info.

 

 

 

The ROW is just a slightly more complex implementation of the above system.

 

 

 

So in short: Adamfostas +1

[supah_script]

interesting :?

[bacab]

This coding to determine monster drops probably coinicides with the coding to produce random events, and to get gems from rocks. Though I'm more curious about the gems from rocks thing because I was mining coal near seers and I got three gems in a row from a single rock.

 

 

 

edit- I'm also curious about stew of dave and its randomness.

 

 

 

 

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

 

Kewl. I thought I was the only one. ^.^

 

You were probably wearing a ring of wealth when killing the cyclops, this means your very unlikely to get a defender. I wasted 500 tokens because i wore a wealth then my friend said not to wear it.

 

Odd. I don't have a RoW. Making one would be a waste of a dragonstone, I'm saving those for when (if ever) I get 15 more craft levels. (Or 9 more if stew of dave decides to be nice to me).

[Enrico1992]

This discussion about the random things in RuneScape is interesting, but to come to the point: the same things happened after the rollback. Those 3 drops are common, so it was just coincidence. The level-up is very easy to explain, you just needed the amount of xp you would get while killing the third cyclops. I once experienced a rollback but I did never log out. Strange. It was connection lost and things rolled back like 3 minutes.

[xSxqPowerx]

Clue scroll rewards are pre determined too.

 

 

 

This guy using his kingdom in Miscellenia, but then became a non member. When he became a member again it glitched somehow and he ended up with 3 clue scrolls with all the same starting clues. As he did the clues, they went different ways. But the reward for each clue is exactly the same. Which proves clue scroll drops are generated when you get the clue, not when you complete it.

[Ngorge]

An interesting theory, but almost certainly false.

 

 

 

First, the time in coding would be a nightmare beyond belief.

 

 

 

Second, why? Any theory should pass Occam's razor (the simplest solution is generally the correct one), and this one does not. It is far more complex than a random number generator, and why would Jagex want to predetermine drops?

 

 

 

Lastly, your results are not surprising. To you they are, but in general they are not. Any infinitely long string (the drops from all players in Runescape approximates, but is not technically an infinite string) will contain all finite strings, and all infinite strings of less than or equal to it in cardinality. Or, in layperson terms, if a monkey types at a keyboard forever, we should not be surprised if s/he verbatim types the complete works of Shakespeare followed by the Bible - in all chronological versions - and lastly all of the Harry Potter books including the yet to be published 7th one. Not only should we not be surprised, but it is a mathematical inevitability.

 

 

 

Your string is far shorter than the aforementioned ones, consequently should be far more common.

[Taco]

Odd. I've experienced a roll back like this before, around the time Wanted! came out. I thought it was just an odd coincidence, but after reading this I realize ... there is something out there! :shock: We need to have like a Runescape X Files or summat. I'll go get a red wig and start dressing in drag.

 

 

 

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

 

Kewl. I thought I was the only one. ^.^

 

 

 

Already beaten you too it :anxious: :lol:.

 

 

 

But no. It only took me around 90 minutes. -1 hour- -30Minutes-

 

 

 

 

 

Woot im Special!! :XD:

[King_Zesh]

Interesting...

 

 

 

Although I never put forth much effort to really find out how drops worked, I always had theories.

 

 

 

For example, say this monster drops uncut gems, gold (100 only, for this example) and d med.

 

 

 

I always wondered, maybe once you get a certain drop, your chances of getting others would increase, and your chance of getting the one you just got would decrease.

 

 

 

Say, to start out, fighting this monster you have these chances to get these drops:

 

 

 

100GP: 30%

 

Uncut Sapphire: 22%

 

Uncut Emerald:18%

 

Uncut Ruby:16%

 

Uncut Diamond:13%

 

Dragon Med Helm:1%

 

 

 

Then you kill that monster, and you get 100gp. maybe the odds of getting that 100gp goes down, and what % of chance that was removed from the 100gp, gets fed to the others, like so:

 

 

 

100GP: 30% -5%

 

Uncut Sapphire: 22% +1%

 

Uncut Emerald:18% +1%

 

Uncut Ruby:16% +1%

 

Uncut Diamond:13% +1%

 

Dragon Med Helm:1% +1%

 

 

 

Note:This is a very crude example. If this was to be tested, or actually be true, the chances would be very different.

 

 

 

This is all based on loose thinking, so I haven't put much thought into it. I was just wondering if anyone else thought something like this, or if this has any logic to it.

 

[/b]

[Holy_Monk]

Bad Karma?...Who knows Mabye its just a bad Series of Events. ask JageX! lol!..go Spam em up! haha :D

[Adamfostas]

Just so you all know, this is the response I got from Jagex:

 

Adamfostas

 

Hello,

 

 

 

After experiences during a recent server rollback, I have surmised that the random number seed Runescape uses is not tied to time, but is rather generated in some other fashion. I am curious as to what this is. Is it generated on login, on character creation, or in some other fashion?

 

 

 

Regards,

 

 

 

Adam

 

 

 

05-Sep-2006 13:22

 

 

 

Mod Matt P

 

Dear Adamfostas,

 

 

 

Greetings, Curious One.

 

 

 

I am afraid that even we sages are not told of the great plan that has been formulated by the High-Wizard his Council for the future of RuneScape. They like to keep their secrets, you see.

 

 

 

Besides, you should never expect wizards to reveal all their tricks, should you?

 

 

 

Until then, watch this space.

 

 

 

Stay Safe.

 

 

 

Yours Sincerely

 

Mod Matt P

 

 

 

 

Sigh.

[dogfever]

Well, if the 'clock' was a function built into the game code rather than extracted from the system it might roll back with the system, however, I think the most likely explaination of the same three items occurring is just random chance. As I said earlier repetition of three drops does not necessarily imply and repeated sequence in a random string, particularly not for common drops.

[toast647]

one time i was making steel pl8s and then they had a rollback so i had to make them all over again and i got a drunken dwarf random like i did before :ohnoes: