Drop Rate And Fate

[imaerehw14]

Imagine if you will, a RuneScape in which every thing is pre-decided. A RuneScape in which is already documented for you, but you just have to live it out. This may sound rash, this may sound something you have read out of your local Holy Book of choice, yet it may be very true. This RuneScape is known as.... The Twilight Scape! *insert spooky music here*

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Earlier today, you may or may not have been in or noticed the server crash of world 79. Some were nature crafting, some were farming, some were trying to get extra rune defenders *cough*. So 30 minutes of the server being down and my characted being suspended in animation, I decided to go shopping. blah blah blah. I get back and notice i have been in a rollback. I was back at the bank inside the warriors guild with 400 tokens in my inventory. "cool!" i thought, because i had missed the 77 att picture.

 

 

 

So I take my equipment out of my bank, get food, and walk upstairs. After about 3 drops i notice something. these were the same drops i had gotten before in the same order 5 minutes before the crash. Large coin drop, Small coing drop, iron chain, belladona seed, black knife. on the black knife kill, i leveled up, JUST like i had did before. I will also mention i was fighting on the other side of the room, and not the same cyclopes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This little occurance has me thinking. What if RuneScape is predetermined in the drops you get? What if you are destined to get that dragon chain drop on the 4th kill because of a scrambler that says you will get it on the 4th kill, 21t kill, and 88th kill? This may seem like a coincidence, but what are the chances of getting the same drops i had gotten 3 hours earlier, in a different part of the room?

 

 

 

Thoughts? Comments? Experiences? I am interested in hearing if anyone has had the same, or exact opposite experience with the same factors (as in not getting the dchain on the 2nd kill like you did before the roll back)

 

 

 

Thanks

 

-Imaerehw14

[wuchenxi]

you are right about this thing that all our fate is sealed...back long time ago when i was pking and that happend to me, it rolled back and it saved my rune and ppl from MK was pissed

[xans_ghost]

:shock: That is crazy! Now I know why I've never gotten a dragon drop or barrows item! Jagex hates me and made my first barrows item on my 999th barrows run!

[elucin8er]

That's pretty interesting actually. I thought it was random, but if you're certain you got the same drops, then this is something to be talked about :o

 

 

 

I'll check back later.

[Naive]

never experienced a rollback. but that would be wierd... i dont like having my future preordained...

[imaerehw14]

wuchenxi, thats not what i meant. its not a discussion of saving your rune, its the fact that i had the same thing happen to me twice in a row. getting the same drops in a row. you are just talking about not dieing because of a rollback

[n64jive]

happens to be a coincidence(sp)...their is no way jagex would pre-determine all your drops from every monster...i dunno if you could code it.

[Shaddd]

Whoa... I guess Jagex does hate me. Interesting topic. Maybe it was because of the roll-back? Hmm... :-k

[zaquierming]

Pretty interesting, makes sense too.

[wild_goat_14]

were your hits the same?lol...jk...but thats a cool thought....

[Hitman247m]

Technically, you could code it, but it would be a major pain, and I don't think Jagex would go through the trouble unless they had something to gain :|

[hellbellz]

Wow, finally a "what-if" Topic that's good, interesting :thumbsup:

 

 

 

That's odd, DID you hit the same hits? If so, Jagex hates me :x

[Nazgul740]

Well maybe the monster drops are predesigned... like when you attack a monster it automatically goes through like a dice and then comes out with something...

 

 

 

 

 

Anyway lol i beat the odds of a guth spear 1\480 in only 200 runs so i guess jagex likes me :3>

[Thus]

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

[ranging_beast]

I personally dont believe in this, but I do believe in give a little, take a little. Whenever I Abbysal RC, I get pked right after I sell the runes. My friend yesturday some decent item off barrow. She didnt get any today.

 

 

 

Ranged Crave

 

 

 

PS Those are all profitable and losing some profit, hence my point lose a little, gain a little.

[bacab]

Odd. I've experienced a roll back like this before, around the time Wanted! came out. I thought it was just an odd coincidence, but after reading this I realize ... there is something out there! :shock: We need to have like a Runescape X Files or summat. I'll go get a red wig and start dressing in drag.

 

 

 

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

 

Kewl. I thought I was the only one. ^.^

[FrankyBrown]

Odd. I've experienced a roll back like this before, around the time Wanted! came out. I thought it was just an odd coincidence, but after reading this I realize ... there is something out there! :shock: We need to have like a Runescape X Files or summat. I'll go get a red wig and start dressing in drag.

 

 

 

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

 

Kewl. I thought I was the only one. ^.^

 

 

 

Already beaten you too it :anxious: :lol:.

[Coandca5]

Well, like back in april i was fighting Tzhaars, And i got an obby shield drop, then all the servers crashed. i logged back in in about 2 hours, Killed 5 tzhaars (Like before) And i get an obby shield.. hmm..

[imaerehw14]

To the people who asked...

 

 

 

No i didnt get the same hits. i remember hitting a high dds spec, like a 21-20. when i went, i didnt get any numbers on my dds spec above 20. so the hits werent predetermined.

[Mysticaznone]

so thats why i cant get a bronze defender after 6k tokens...

 

 

 

and I thought I was unlucky..

[T. Skill]

I'm official freaked out now... :uhh: :ohnoes:

[aj926]

That freaked me out man

 

 

 

:(

[CubeMage128]

I'm not really sure what to say to this.... pretty much like everybody else.

 

 

 

 

 

I guess the drops are predetermined, but still, from our normal standpoint in time while playing RS, we don't know our future drops. And since Jagex couldn't possibly have to time to program all of our drops, I'll still think of it as random.

[Adamfostas]

This leads me to believe that the drop rate for items is similar to the 'seed' on games such as Civ 4 (if anyone knows the proper technical term for this, please jump in). Basically, for every new turn in the game, a string of numbers is generated which determines combat results and whatnot before those combats take place (if they do so). I would imagine something similar happens with Runescape: when you log on to a server, you are assigned a 'seed' which determines your combat/drop results after factoring in other parameters (combats stats, monster you're fighting, and so on). Thus, if you fight the same monster using the same equipment on the same server after ostensibly the same log-in, you'll not only get the same drops, but also the same hit rate. I'm guessing you used different weapons (like a whip and a ddp++) while fighting the cyclops, right? Otherwise you would have noticed this effect too.

 

 

 

This has some interesting implications. While I can't guess how long the drop 'seed' is, it must be long enough to handle probabilities that are estimated to be in some cases (such as dchains and Dust Devils) as low as 1 in 50,000. After the 'seed' is complete (i.e. after you've killed 50,000 monsters) it should reset. This means that if you stay on the same server without logging off and kill 50,000 Dust Devils, you are guaranteed a dchain. However, given that this would require people to work in shifts over a period of several days, it's impossible to test.

 

 

 

Naturally, this is all speculation, and I'd be quite happy to be put right by someone with more technical knowledge than me. But the important thing to remember is that computers cannot be random, as they are based on logic. They can only produce the appearance of randomness.

[DarkDude]

But to do that it would have to generate ALL the drops you'd get for ALL the monsters in the game, and would take far too long.

 

 

 

The drops ARE determined when you kill the monsters...

 

 

 

The code is PROBABLY something like this.

 

 

 

x = number of people that attacked THAT npc, so it checks all the players to see who did most damage then makes them player(n)



if monster.dead = true then

player(x).damagecheck = player(n)

player(n).slayercheck

player(n).questmonstercheck

player(n).ringcheck



if player(n).slayercheck = true and x <2 then

player(n).addslayerxp(monster.hp)

elseif player(n).slayercheck = true and x >1 then player(n).addslayerxp(monster.hp/2)

endif



s = rnd#

if monster.drop(s) >=0 and <= 0.01 then

player(n).itemadd(Coins (320))

elseif...

etc...



elseIf monster.drop(s) >0.9 then

r = rnd#

if player(n).ringcheck = true then

r = r + 0.1

end if

if monster.raredrop(r) >=0 and <=0.01 then

monster.itemdrop(uncut emerald)

elseif etc...



monster.normdrop [bones etc.]



if player(n).questmonstercheck = true then

monster.itemdrop(questitem)



endif x 10000000000

 

 

 

That's what HAS to be calculated every time an NPC gets killed, of course that's really badly coded but you get the point, there'd also be the drop tables and item dbs somewhere for the game to look at, instead of the drops being coded in the code.