April 8, 200719 yr IMPORTANT: Scroll to the bottom of this post to quickly see the answer. I recently collected a whole lot of stew spices from Evil Dave's basement so I could build a gilded altar in my house. I originally was going for a 6 level gain using 3 doses of orange spice, but found after many tries that I just wasn't getting there. I instead decided to gain one more level of construction so that I only needed 5 more levels to get to the level I needed. The result was that I still needed a lot of stew but was able to finally achieve the level I needed and built the altar. I then was curious about how many stews I really needed to be reasonably certain of getting the level. I further reasoned that the most time consuming part of the process is collecting the spices (even with my wily cat), because obtaining stew is fairly easy and a relatively quick process. Below are the tables I made to figure out the probabilities of getting certain amounts of skill gains given a certain number of doses in the stew. I am only interested in numbers above zero because anything lower is useless to me. Also, if I only need +1 skill level for example, +2 skill levels also works, so the total of any higher amount of skill levels is added into the total for the current skill level. 1 dose stew: -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 Probability of at least +1: 2/5 = 40.0% Probability of at least +2: 1/5 = 20.0% 2 dose stew: -2-2, -2-1, -2+0, -2+1, -2+2 -1-2, -1-1, -1+0, -1+1, -1+2 +0-2, +0-1, +0+0, +0+1, +0+2 +1-2, +1-1, +1+0, +1+1, +1+2 +2-2, +2-1, +2+0, +2+1, +2+2 OR -4, -3, -2, -1, +0 -3, -2, -1, +0, +1 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -1, +0, +1, +2, +3 +0, +1, +2, +3, +4 Probability of at least +1:10/25 = 40.0% Probability of at least +2: 6/25 = 24.0% Probability of at least +3: 3/25 = 12.0% Probability of at least +4: 1/25 = 4.0% 3 dose stew: -2-2-2, -2-2-1, -2-2+0, -2-2+1, -2-2+2 -2-1-2, -2-1-1, -2-1+0, -2-1+1, -2-1+2 -2+0-2, -2+0-1, -2+0+0, -2+0+1, -2+0+2 -2+1-2, -2+1-1, -2+1+0, -2+1+1, -2+1+2 -2+2-2, -2+2-1, -2+2+0, -2+2+1, -2+2+2 -1-2-2, -1-2-1, -1-2+0, -1-2+1, -1-2+2 -1-1-2, -1-1-1, -1-1+0, -1-1+1, -1-1+2 -1+0-2, -1+0-1, -1+0+0, -1+0+1, -1+0+2 -1+1-2, -1+1-1, -1+1+0, -1+1+1, -1+1+2 -1+2-2, -1+2-1, -1+2+0, -1+2+1, -1+2+2 +0-2-2, +0-2-1, +0-2+0, +0-2+1, +0-2+2 +0-1-2, +0-1-1, +0-1+0, +0-1+1, +0-1+2 +0+0-2, +0+0-1, +0+0+0, +0+0+1, +0+0+2 +0+1-2, +0+1-1, +0+1+0, +0+1+1, +0+1+2 +0+2-2, +0+2-1, +0+2+0, +0+2+1, +0+2+2 +1-2-2, +1-2-1, +1-2+0, +1-2+1, +1-2+2 +1-1-2, +1-1-1, +1-1+0, +1-1+1, +1-1+2 +1+0-2, +1+0-1, +1+0+0, +1+0+1, +1+0+2 +1+1-2, +1+1-1, +1+1+0, +1+1+1, +1+1+2 +1+2-2, +1+2-1, +1+2+0, +1+2+1, +1+2+2 +2-2-2, +2-2-1, +2-2+0, +2-2+1, +2-2+2 +2-1-2, +2-1-1, +2-1+0, +2-1+1, +2-1+2 +2+0-2, +2+0-1, +2+0+0, +2+0+1, +2+0+2 +2+1-2, +2+1-1, +2+1+0, +2+1+1, +2+1+2 +2+2-2, +2+2-1, +2+2+0, +2+2+1, +2+2+2 OR -6, -5, -4, -3, -2 -5, -4, -3, -2, -1 -4, -3, -2, -1, +0 -3, -2, -1, +0, +1 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -5, -4, -3, -2, -1 -4, -3, -2, -1, +0 -3, -2, -1, +0, +1 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -1, +0, +1, +2, +3 -4, -3, -2, -1, +0 -3, -2, -1, +0, +1 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -1, +0, +1, +2, +3 +0, +1, +2, +3, +4 -3, -2, -1, +0, +1 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -1, +0, +1, +2, +3 +0, +1, +2, +3, +4 +1, +2, +3, +4, +5 -2, -1, +0, +1, +2 -1, +0, +1, +2, +3 +0, +1, +2, +3, +4 +1, +2, +3, +4, +5 +2, +3, +4, +5, +6 Probability of at least +1: 53/125 = 42.4% Probability of at least +2: 35/125 = 28.0% Probability of at least +3: 20/125 = 16.0% Probability of at least +4: 10/125 = 8.0% Probability of at least +5: 4/125 = 3.2% Probability of at least +6: 1/125 = .8% These probabilities are sorted by the skill level needed: Probability of at least +1 1 dose: 2/5 = 40.0% Probability of at least +1 2 dose: 10/25 = 40.0% Probability of at least +1 3 dose: 53/125 = 42.4% Probability of at least +2 1 dose: 1/5 = 20.0% Probability of at least +2 2 dose: 6/25 = 24.0% Probability of at least +2 3 dose: 35/125 = 28.0% Probability of at least +3 2 dose: 3/25 = 12.0% Probability of at least +3 3 dose: 20/125 = 16.0% Probability of at least +4 2 dose: 1/25 = 4.0% Probability of at least +4 3 dose: 10/125 = 8.0% Probability of at least +5 3 dose: 4/125 = 3.2% Probability of at least +6 3 dose: 1/125 = .8% Now that I have the probabilities, I can find the number of stews needed to obtain my goal with a given degree of certainty. I want to be pretty sure that I'll get the level I want without having to repeat the process, so I selected a degree of certainty of 90% that I'll reach my goal using a certain amount of stews prepared. The equation for this is (Degree of Certainty)=1-(1-Probability)^Stews, or Stews=[log(1-(Degree of Certainty)]/[log(1-Probability)]. I rounded all my total stews upward since you can't eat less than 1 stew at a time. Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 1 dose: 4.5 ~= 5 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 2 dose: 4.5 ~= 5 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 3 dose: 4.2 ~= 5 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 1 dose: 10.3 ~= 11 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 2 dose: 8.4 ~= 9 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 3 dose: 7.0 ~= 7 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 2 dose: 18.0 ~= 18 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 3 dose: 13.2 ~= 14 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 2 dose: 56.4 ~= 57 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 3 dose: 27.6 ~= 28 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +5 3 dose: 70.8 ~= 71 Stews Degree of certainty 90% of at least +6 3 dose: 286.7 ~= 287 Stews I now know how many stews I should use to reach my goal. But since gathering the spices is the worst part of the process, I had to multiply the number of doses used in each stew by the number of stews used to find out how many doses I need to reach my goal. Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 1 dose: 5 Stews = 5 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 2 dose: 5 Stews = 10 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +1 3 dose: 5 Stews = 15 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 1 dose: 11 Stews = 11 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 2 dose: 9 Stews = 18 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +2 3 dose: 7 Stews = 21 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 2 dose: 18 Stews = 36 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +3 3 dose: 14 Stews = 42 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 2 dose: 57 Stews = 114 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +4 3 dose: 28 Stews = 84 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +5 3 dose: 71 Stews = 213 Doses Degree of certainty 90% of at least +6 3 dose: 287 Stews = 861 Doses CONCLUSION: Now that I know how many doses I need to reasonably reach the skill level I need with each dose level of stew, I can finally find the minimum number of doses needed for each skill level. The results are shown below. Skill level needed, how many bowls of stew needed, how many doses needed per bowl, and how many total doses needed for 90% certainty of reaching the skill level: +1: use 5 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 5 doses +2: use 11 bowls of 1 dose stew, collect 11 doses +3: use 18 bowls of 2 dose stew, collect 36 doses +4: use 28 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 84 doses +5: use 71 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 213 doses +6: use 287 bowls of 3 dose stew, collect 861 doses
April 8, 200719 yr erm i dont have a clue what your on about but it looks good so nice guide :wall: :thumbsup: im not stupid, just dont wanna read it wall
April 8, 200719 yr Author You don't have to read it all, just read the bottom. Maybe I should have just put the bottom part up there.
April 8, 200719 yr Oo you have really laid a lot of hard work in this.... i've read through it, and i understand... but a thing i wonder... on the conclusion, is that what you need from 0, so you are using another pot or something to get up at the regular so the boost won't be used on getting back up at 0?? or is it with just eating stew and not waiting to get normal stats if are unlucky and get a negative boost??
April 8, 200719 yr this obviously took some time to do, i couldnt understand a ting, great work btw. i hope this helps someone, i recently useed these to get quest cape :D i used 2 regular cats and like 50 stews, its not that hard..
April 8, 200719 yr erm......that was confusing but i get the point Don't Click This774th to 99 hunting on July 16th 2007
April 8, 200719 yr wow... one word.. wow now i feel lucky, got 6+ on smith for devious minds on 51 try.. or something like that
April 8, 200719 yr Wow...I think that people should work on leveling their skills instead of spending tons of time trying to find a quick way to boost them... However, nice work, and a decent guide I guess. It's not really a "guide" though, more like a probability report. Need assistance in any of these skills? PM me in game, my private chat is always ON
April 8, 200719 yr Author Oo you have really laid a lot of hard work in this.... i've read through it, and i understand... but a thing i wonder... on the conclusion, is that what you need from 0, so you are using another pot or something to get up at the regular so the boost won't be used on getting back up at 0?? or is it with just eating stew and not waiting to get normal stats if are unlucky and get a negative boost??In my experience, I believe you should always start from your base level or above before eating the stew, because I think it can give you negative levels as far as it wants, but positive levels only up to +6. For example, if you have a base level of 50, and you eat one stew and get -5 to end up with 45, then immediately eat another stew, you can end up with another -5 for a total of 40. However, if you eat one stew and get +5 you'll have a level of 55, and then if you eat another stew and would get +5, you'll really only end up with 55, I think, though it could be 56. Therefore you should use a separate stat booster to get your level back up to at least your base level before eating a stew. I'm not sure if it helps to have your level above your base level before eating the stew or not, but I'm pretty sure it does not help, just based on my own experience.
April 8, 200719 yr Author Wow...I think that people should work on leveling their skills instead of spending tons of time trying to find a quick way to boost them... However, nice work, and a decent guide I guess. It's not really a "guide" though, more like a probability report.It is a guide because it tells you how many doses of spice and how many bowls of stew you should collect depending on which skill level you want to achieve. Also I agree that levelling should be done to get what you want. However, this was a time dependant project for me, as I wanted to raise my prayer higher than my herblore so that I could use my Tears of Guthix on herblore. It was much quicker (and cheaper) to build my altar this way than to raise my construction 5 more levels. I could have used the ectofunctus instead of course, and it may have been even faster, but this is a time investment that will probably serve me for a few months, so I believe it was worth it.
April 8, 200719 yr wat about the negative bonuses? Click here to see my goals and achievements thread
April 8, 200719 yr hmm very intresting i to was using stew but for herblore (quest) i could never get +6 but getting +5 was not that hard it only took about 10 stews so you figures might be a little off (i did this a total of 4 times so it might not be correct
April 8, 200719 yr Author wat about the negative bonuses?As I stated in the original post, I don't think anybody wants to have negative bonuses, so I disregarded their probabilities and focused on positive ones.hmm very intresting i to was using stew but for herblore (quest) i could never get +6 but getting +5 was not that hard it only took about 10 stews so you figures might be a little off (i did this a total of 4 times so it might not be correctThese are probabilities. It's certainly possible to obtain +6 with every 3 dose stew you take, but it is not probable. It's also possible that you never gain even +1 no matter how many times you try, though that's not probable either. These should be used as guidelines for what you should gather, as none of it will assure a definite success or failure.
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