Omar Posted January 14, 2008 Share Posted January 14, 2008 I'd just like to note for everyone that my graphs are just a preliminary hackjob put together from the excel sheet primadog has been keeping updated. I currently have to make some tweaks to the excel file and run it through a script to move it to the SQL database, so it won't be updated as fast as some may like (I started back to classes today too :x ). Hopefully I'll have some time between classes to put together an easier way to update the values for prima and others so they can be updated a bit faster. It's not a duty, remember that :wink: Matt: You want that eh? You want everything good for you. You want everything that's--falls off garbage can Camera guy: Whoa, haha, are you okay dude? Matt: You want anything funny that happens, don't you? Camera guy: still laughing Matt: You want the funny shit that happens here and there, you think it comes out of your [bleep]ing [wagon] pushes garbage can down, don't you? You think it's funny? It comes out of here! running towards Camera guy Camera guy: runs away still laughing Matt: You think the funny comes out of your mother[bleep]ing creativity? Comes out of Satan, mother[bleep]er! nn--ngh! pushes Camera guy down Camera guy: Hoooholy [bleep]! Matt: FUNNY ISN'T REAL! FUNNY ISN'T REAL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mainiac2k3 Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 An ongoing trend that I'm seeing, and as Qeltar pointed out, is the dramatic rise and fall of prices. The volatility in the market right now is HUGE. All you really need to be able to do is trade it. As prices start going south, its as if by magic they start going up again and vice versa. What I think you should do is just sell when its going up and buy at the bottom. When prices are rising like crazy, hold back and look for other investments. When prices begin to go down again, it seems that with every single thing that i've seen, they'll go back up in a week or so. All you need to do is make sure you don't trust what people are saying on the forums that the prices will continue to rise or continue to fall. Don't get stuck in the market euphoria. As a famous investment line on Wall Street: "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy." It's pretty simple if you stick to that rule and don't let whatever other people are saying go into your decision. You can make money with this huge volatility as long as you don't buy at the peak. Just make sure you are hedged and ready for a downturn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledge Posted January 15, 2008 Share Posted January 15, 2008 Note for the following: This is assuming Santa's will have a high and low trend like oak logs and rune ess. With this santa buying crazy we're seeing, I have a theory that could possibly change rare prices in a huge way. Before, high-staked merchants merched phats and mask sets for millions in profit. They can't do that anymore. Not because they are priced wrong but because there just isnt enough of them in circulation to keep the market fluctuating. Fluctuation is the key to success with the new type of merching or "investing". So what can they invest in now? That's where the Santa's come marching in. As clearly indicated in the graphs, santa's are the most commonly traded rare and is the only rare that updates on a daily basis. Because of this they are prime targets for price manipulation and tracking. But most importantly they are the fastest way to make profit as far as rares go. The merchants now have a couple options. One, they take a big risk and buy a phat (ill assume jagex is going to make another phat fix). Because they never update they have little information on if they are going to rise in price and be able to make a profit. Option 2, they take that gp and put it into 10+ santa hats when they know the price is low and about to rise. They will know this because of the plethora of information there is about their trends. When they do rise up their santa's will be increasing in total value by 5-10 million a day for many days. This seems a heck of alot more profitable then taking risks with phats. Now if that were to come true, it would have a huge effect on rare prices. Phats for one would lower by alot and not recover for quite a while due to merchants dumping them to invest in santa's. Masks would also lower, but not by much and could still possibly be invested in in the same way as santa's, but on a far lesser scale. With all these investers thriving upon santa's, it would surely increase their value dramatically. Possibly even higher then red masks. It couldnt be possible before because there is so many of them, but a fleet of phat merchants could definately keep the price up there. This is just a theory, don't think of it as a fact just yet. Time will tell. Retired Moriquendi StaffMori WebsiteMori ForumsMori Memberlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted January 15, 2008 Author Share Posted January 15, 2008 [hide=old post dump] Movers and Shakers Jan 13th Biggest Winner Today: Marrentil UP 5.00% 120gp -> 126gp Lantadyme UP 4.83% 1,677gp -> 1,758gp Biggest Loser Today: Tarromin DOWN -5.08% 256gp -> 243gp Snapdragon DOWN -4.81% 6213gp -> 5914gp Rune Essence DOWN -6.67% 30gp -> 28gp Cosmic DOWN -5.14% 175gp -> 166gp Biggest Winner This Week: Marrentil UP 44.83% 83gp -> 126gp Lantadyme UP 24.50% 1,412gp -> 1,758gp Biggest Loser This Week: Ranarr DOWN -17.69% 6,197gp -> 5,101gp Snapdragon DOWN -22.42% 7,623gp -> 5,914gp Ahrim Set DOWN -13.12% 1,108,826gp -> 963,296gp [/hide] Updated Jan 15th. Yey summoning's here! My biggest interest atm is the pricing of summoning-related materials. The setup for summoning pouches exp is very particular. While most pouches have high cost in shards, a few are spared. I suggest watching closely to items like runite bars, raw bird meat, Tortoise shell, Polar kebbit fur, and Dagannoth hide. All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledge Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 Now although these graphs are extremely usefull, they have one major flaw in that the % change is a reflection on the changes compared to older prices. It doesnt take into account that some prices have changed dramatically and stayed there. I think it should be based on the average price instead. Not only will it give a better idea of how well certain items are doing in relation to how they have been over a long period of time, but it will make comparing them to other items easier. This is the current setup for santa's and masks compared to the starting price set when the exchange came out: It looks as if red masks have dropped the least with blue masks and santa's close behind, and green masks appear to be doing the worst. Or are they? This is the setup for santa's and masks compared to the average price since the exchange came out: The percentages havent changed, but you can clearly see that in relation to santa's, red masks and blue masks arent doing as well as they appeared to be. They are even doing worse then green masks. Retired Moriquendi StaffMori WebsiteMori ForumsMori Memberlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted January 16, 2008 Author Share Posted January 16, 2008 I have considered using average earlier, but decided against it due to worries about the graph shifting on day-to-day basis. What formula you use {=A32/Average(A:A)}? All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledge Posted January 16, 2008 Share Posted January 16, 2008 I have considered using average earlier, but decided against it due to worries about the graph shifting on day-to-day basis. What formula you use {=A32/Average(A:A)}? Pretty much, but I added another step to make the equation less complicated. The shifting shouldnt effect the main purpose of the graph. Right now you're just tracking how high and low prices change on a day to day basis which does its job regardless where on the graph it is. Factoring in the average gives the Y-Axis purpose, it is currently useless right now and gives false representations on items that have permanently risen/lowered. I think it will also make graphs with huge drops and raises easier to read. There will be less crowding of lines too. Retired Moriquendi StaffMori WebsiteMori ForumsMori Memberlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted January 17, 2008 Author Share Posted January 17, 2008 Ya, you made some good points Sledge. In the older graphs, the y-axis is generally useless, considering my choice of 11/27 price is rather arbitrary. The average price would probably be a better place for 0% to be located at. My concern over the shifting zero is probably overstated, since most people won't notice it anyways (only I have copies of the older graphs). I think I'll put your graph method in the next update. My only concern now is how to explain it in the topic what 0% means so it's not overly confusing. Mind writing an explanation for me? All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledge Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 How to read the Trend Charts: These charts are designed to show you the market changes of common items. This is done by tracking market prices and showing you the percentage that they raise or drop on any given day. You can easily see if a particular item is doing well by looking where it is in relation to the average price. The average price will be indicated at the 0% mark. If an item is well above this mark then it is likely to be in high demand. The opposite being if it is below the 0% mark. A starting point, if you want to change or add something go ahead. I'm looking forward to seeing the difference. :) Also I was just thinking. The big gaps you have might make the average price a little off. I think it's safe to say that all prices you have before the gaps are pretty much obsolete. The average price would be more accurate if you start the graphs at the 15th instead. Retired Moriquendi StaffMori WebsiteMori ForumsMori Memberlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
droppedmeatpie Posted January 17, 2008 Share Posted January 17, 2008 just a quick question ... will this become a guide or just stay on the forums also will it be updated or just once off 16537th to get 99 fletching 20th june 2007quest cape achieved 25th january 20081700 total 13th july 2008click for blog Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted January 17, 2008 Author Share Posted January 17, 2008 Thank you mpm for hot-topicing this project! It's always nice to have some validation to our hard work. More importantly, it's my sincere hope that more people would benefit from our research as a result. droppedmeatpie: I tend to update the charts two or three times a week, and sometimes more if necessary (Except for rares charts, which rely on when Sledge e-mail me the new data). Also, this project would remain on the forums for the foreseeable future, until it's either superseded or obsolete. All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sledge Posted January 24, 2008 Share Posted January 24, 2008 My 5M oak logs are slowly going up in price (bought 16ea) : I also am invested in oak, but i'm sorry to say they look to be going down tomorrow. I'm not sure whats up, but my best guess is someone with a huge stash of them jumped the gun in selling. why would any1 invest in oak logs, who buys oak logs? nobody, there is no demand for oak logs, the only reason why ur 5m oak logs went up is because you bought them which created the demand, now that u have no more cash to buy them there going to drop I guess construction doesnt use oak #-o . Take a look at the oak log charts, maybe you'll see why people are investing in them. I've made millions off of them already and some people have doubled their money off oak logs. Anyways, oaks are going to go back up tomorrow. Retired Moriquendi StaffMori WebsiteMori ForumsMori Memberlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aznmidget448 Posted February 11, 2008 Share Posted February 11, 2008 I thought this died, glad to see an update :D We need to make a constantly updated GE price list. It'd be so helpful but so much work. The one on wiki is missing half the things :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted February 14, 2008 Author Share Posted February 14, 2008 BTW prima ur gettin really lazy man ur updating once a week n thats kinda little Sorry, RL got a bit busier. Updated w/ a few days missing. [hide=older data] Movers and Shakers: Feb 7th 2008 Biggest Winner Today: Toadflax: UP 3.13% 1374 -> 1417 Cadantine: UP 3.69% 839 -> 870 Achey: UP 5.13% 78 -> 82 Rune Essence: UP 3.57% 28 -> 29 Dwarf Weed: UP 4.77% 1676 -> 1756 Biggest Loser Today: Copper: DOWN -4.84% 62 -> 59 Astral: DOWN -2.82% 142 -> 138 Mahogany: DOWN -5.74% 122 -> 115 Spirit Weed: DOWN -4.99% 3827 -> 3636 Guam: DOWN -9.02% 488 -> 444 Kwuarm: DOWN -2.82% 3089 -> 3002 Ahrim Set: DOWN -3.38% 1038821 -> 1003720 Biggest Winner This Week: Marrentill: UP 33.62% 116 -> 155 Tarromin: UP 15.42% 214 -> 247 Cadantine: UP 25% 696 -> 870 Dwarf Weed: UP 17.46% 1495 -> 1756 Achey: UP 30.16% 63 -> 82 Copper: UP 18% 50 -> 59 Biggest Loser This Week: Logs: DOWN -19.23% 26 -> 21 Mahogany: DOWN -13.53% 133 -> 115 Guam: DOWN -16.07% 529 -> 444 Spirit Weed: DOWN -22.64% 4700 -> 3636 Kwuarm: DOWN -13.26% 3461 -> 3002 Ahrim Set: DOWN -17.61% 1218269 -> 1003720 Toadflax: DOWN -12.58% 1621 -> 1417 Movers and Shakers: Feb 13rd 2008 (note: GE is not updated Feb 12 -> Feb 13) Biggest Winner This Week: Dwarf Weed: UP 26.37% 1608 -> 2032 Achey: UP 21.62% 74 -> 90 Oak: UP 15.38% 13 -> 15 Teak: UP 27.87% 61 -> 78 Biggest Loser This Week: Ahrim Set: DOWN -19.88% 1132371 -> 907263 Spirit Weed: DOWN -22.64% 4028 -> 3116 Guam: DOWN -41.71% 772 -> 450 Market Commentaries and Analysis [hide=dotadanatic on nature's rise 1/27] pieter012345 wrote: Nats are boming !!! 263 -> 270 -> 276 -> 283 -> 290in just one week Sad Highly unsustainable trend. I believe that they will drop to 27* in three to four weeks. Pure essence may also drop when key indicators such as laws, death, chaos start to drop or remain stable in price. I am highly confident that the price was caused by panic buying. Edit: I was rather surprised when I checked out demand for Nats. It was definitely a very huge kind of panic buying. I can't believe that people are buying in batch of 30k Nats Shocked When these demand start to slow, yew logs will rise while Nats will probably drop.[/hide] [hide=limdogs' reason for nature's rise 1/27] What are you talking about? There IS a reason for the demand. Tons of people are alching pouches to hedge the cost of summoning. There is a thread that explains this.[/hide] [hide=lostdreamer3 on Ranarr]I've been following the ranarr trend personally for the past month. Looks like currently it's on it's way back down in price (grumble grumble)...and the seed to grow it is going back down....wait till they get to the 12-13k per seed to buy ranarr, then it'll start slowly..ever so slowly going back up. Prayer pots (4) seems to top out around 7.7 (high price) before it begins its drop.[/hide][/hide] All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
primadog Posted February 21, 2008 Author Share Posted February 21, 2008 Kudos for keeping this going, primadog.. I know how the burnout must be creeping up on you at this point. thanks qeltar, the only thing that keeps me going is the fact your TWIRP is still up. If you can last this long, I can too! All I learned in life, I learned on Tip.it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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