GE Trends |UPDATED March 05th|

[Sledge]

Me 6 days ago:

 

 

 

I believe rares are going to follow the same path most other items have followed. They crash, hard, and then the moment that they look to have hit rock bottom and start going up, people will buy like crazy, driving the price back up.

 

 

 

If they do follow that path, then they will also follow the peaking path. If they show signs that they slowing down people will sell, driving the price back down and restarting the cycle. What differs the rare cycle will be that there are a limited amount, so everytime it crashes, it'll rise up a bit higher then the last peak. With jagex releasing price graphs in the future, it will turn all rare owners into market experts, which could compensate for the lack of merchers.

 

 

 

Me 3 days ago:

 

 

 

Manipulation is still happening, only right now it's being done to lower the prices. Watching the disc. items forum for a bit I noticed alot of people were bumping up outdated threads with titles like "selling santa at the lowest price, G.E", all the while you werent able to buy one for the lowest price at the time.

 

 

 

The opposite is going to happen once the people who have hundreds of millions buy up rares when they hit rock bottom. The forum will then be filled with "buying santa's at the max price, G.E". People without one may be more incline to buy one and people with one may be more incline to hold on to theirs.

 

 

 

Me yesterday:

 

 

 

If the OF and market prices are of any accurate indication, santa's have hit rock bottom. I'm not surprized, the rate of decrease has been slowing down the past few days. 2 days ago they decreased by 3.15%, yesterday they decreased by 2.5%, and today they only decreased by 1.64%.

 

 

 

I predict that santa's will rise or lower by a little bit tomorrow, and then begin their rebound upwards.

 

 

 

Other rares will probably keep lowering for a little while since they're a bit behind the times in relation to santa's. Though if people see santa's rise back up they may think all rares are going back up, which could cause a domino effect.

 

 

 

^Green masks are in a buying frenzy because of the santa raise

[Sean_Chaos]

ok i see the charts

 

 

 

i see why certain things are rising and dropping

 

 

 

i see some things are making money and others arnt

 

 

 

well...

 

 

 

i got 6 mil in rs and want to make more off the new method of merchanting

 

 

 

i used to learn from my dad about how to tell whats likely to rise or drop in value based off charts like these (of course this was a real stock exchange) and there were always certain patterns that they made that helped show where they were going.

 

 

 

its the same concept here. I was wondering if anyone here knows how to read these charts in that way or if they know a website...

[limdogs]

updated 1/11, missing a few thing, but a new section added

 

 

 

 

 

edit2: Arg, I hate rushing things. Will rewrite that section when I get a chance.

 

 

 

BTW, things to watch: when marrentil and tarromin drop, green masks, toadflax's rise.

 

 

 

Marrs a still way below where they should be. If you look at the charts and see where tarrs have gone marrs still have much upcycle left. Look for them to hit 200. Keep in mind these are CLEAN marrs and not grimy. Im finally getting some now. Took a couple days but Im finally at the front of the line :)

[anonymouse_]

 

Marrs a still way below where they should be. If you look at the charts and see where tarrs have gone marrs still have much upcycle left. Look for them to hit 200. Keep in mind these are CLEAN marrs and not grimy. Im finally getting some now. Took a couple days but Im finally at the front of the line :)

2nd's for marrs are expensive and pots are cheap/hard to sell. I can't see them going up, really.

 

 

 

Plus there is speculation that Jagex might get rid of pure ess which would also make reg rune essence rise. It could happen at any time but we all know Jagex likes to drag their feet on these things.. were still waiting for them to get rid of the ditch also with no more scamming possible.

Unlikely, since that would cause massive inflation due to an increase in alching.

 

 

 

It's a good idea to buy up nats now since their price is depressed and yews have been dropping for a while (=more people alching, greater demand for nats).

[aj926]

So what are the hot things to buy? Come on people.

[anonymouse_]

Does anyone know the exact time GE updates?

[Artificial_Doom_Flavor]

Heh, I invested in laws before trading was killed. I made a killing on the day they peaked by selling them all, just before they crashed. I don't know if that was luck or skill.

[Sledge]

I think you missed something when updating the rares charts. It's saying santa's have gone down around 74%. The lowest they went is 42.65%. All the other rare %'s are off too.

[anonymouse_]

Looks like pure ess might rebound soon; rune ess is still dropping.

 

 

 

I think you missed something when updating the rares charts. It's saying santa's have gone down around 74%. The lowest they went is 42.65%. All the other rare %'s are off too.

:wall:

[Omar]

Very nice stuff, I'd like to see a chart for all these underpriced items like amulets though. I'm afraid of asking :oops:

[redhaloguy]

Man freaking ashes crashed no idea why good thing i sold at peek :)

[katakid1]

our very own stock market... loki plans how to make money.

[Dexek]

Nice topic. I really like the Biggest Winners/Losers with daily/weekly prices and percentages. It will be interesting to see how the whole personal stock market, as it seems, plays out.

 

 

 

I know I won't use the GE as a stock market because my days of merchanting are long past, but it does look intriguing. I do like the fact that items will fall short of stock and prices will rise due to this update. I have a bad habit of pack-ratting large quantities of items, so it may be even more of an advantage to myself than it already is. :-w

[anonymouse_]

Man freaking ashes crashed no idea why good thing i sold at peek :)

People held on to them too long and started selling at the same time. I bailed out when they were 40-42ea (bought ~9ea). I'll start buying them again, soon.

 

 

 

Very nice stuff, I'd like to see a chart for all these underpriced items like amulets though. I'm afraid of asking :oops:

Ammies are really bad, very hard to sell. It's easiest to follow the trends of raw materials.

[easonadam]

do you guys think toadflax/ashes will start raising anytime soon?

[Sledge]

Green masks rose for the first time since the G.E. release.

[Omar]

Man freaking ashes crashed no idea why good thing i sold at peek :)

People held on to them too long and started selling at the same time. I bailed out when they were 40-42ea (bought ~9ea). I'll start buying them again, soon.

 

 

 

Very nice stuff, I'd like to see a chart for all these underpriced items like amulets though. I'm afraid of asking :oops:

Ammies are really bad, very hard to sell. It's easiest to follow the trends of raw materials.

 

I've sold 500 in 10 minutes. Considering their current price, they shouldn't take long to go back up. ...Right?

[anonymouse_]

do you guys think toadflax/ashes will start raising anytime soon?

Not much demand for toadflax now, so I'd stay away. Ashes should stabilize within a few days; they're dropping and nobody seems to be buying :-k

 

 

 

Man freaking ashes crashed no idea why good thing i sold at peek :)

People held on to them too long and started selling at the same time. I bailed out when they were 40-42ea (bought ~9ea). I'll start buying them again, soon.

 

 

 

Very nice stuff, I'd like to see a chart for all these underpriced items like amulets though. I'm afraid of asking :oops:

Ammies are really bad, very hard to sell. It's easiest to follow the trends of raw materials.

 

I've sold 500 in 10 minutes. Considering their current price, they shouldn't take long to go back up. ...Right?

I might have been mistaken here; it's been a while since I've looked at those.

[primadog]

Updated Jan 13th! Cruiser have made some fancy graphs for us, have you noticed? Go look at them fancy graphs. Go look at them fancy graphs. Go look at them fancy graphs.

 

 

 

 

 

PS: Sledge, it looks like I did made an mistake with the rares, fixed. Thanks for noticing!

 

 

 

 

 

[hide=Dumping older posts]

 

 

 

 

 

[hide=Movers and Shakers Jan 9]

 

 

 

Biggest Winner Today:

 

Oak Logs UP 8.70% 1/8 23gp -> 1/9 25 gp

 

Air Runes UP 7.14% 1/8 14gp -> 1/9 15 gp

 

Rune Essence UP 7.14% 1/8 28gp -> 1/9 30 gp

 

Logs UP 8.70% 1/8 30gp -> 1/9 32gp

 

 

 

Biggest Loser Today:

 

Snapdragon DOWN -4.92% 1/8 7,241gp -> 1/9 6,885 gp

 

Pure Essence DOWN -5,59% 1/8 143gp -> 1/9 135 gp

 

 

 

Biggest Winner This Week:

 

Rune Essence UP 30.43% 1/2 23gp -> 1/9 30gp

 

Cosmic Rune UP 23.24% 1/2 142gp -> 1/9 175gp

 

Oak Logs UP 47.06% 1/2 17gp -> 1/9 25gp

 

Marrentill UP 43.66% 1/2 71gp -> 1/9 102gp

 

Tarromin UP 38.95% 1/2 172gp -> 1/9 239gp

 

 

 

Biggest Loser This Week:

 

Toadflax DOWN -21.26% 1/2 2,065gp -> 1/9 1,626gp

 

Snapdragon DOWN -20.00% 1/8 8,606gp -> 1/9 6,885gp

 

Yew Logs DOWN -13.95% 1/8 423gp -> 1/9 364gp

 

[/hide]

 

 

 

[hide=Duke_Freedom on pure essence 12/31] That pure essence went up by 55% is not too strange - it dropped quite a bit the past months and I already expected it to rise back, because the low prices simply do not make (pure) rune essence mining worth it. I think normal essence may be up for a rise as well.[/hide]

 

[hide=WolfhunterXZ on general trends 12/31] what I see, the prices drop, but I'd say 90% of those items he listed are going back up and stabilizing (Or just stabilizing in the first place after the initial shock/drop).

 

That's good, it means people are learning to stop panicking.[/hide]

 

[hide=bobbington2 on Maple 12/31] As to what Duke was saying Maples have dropped so very much due to the introduction of the system....

 

 

 

 

 

!0's of 1000's of people who had been collection maple logs for a long time in manage thy kingdom whom had never sold due to low cost, suddenly stuck them up as they meant such little effort to get rid of them..

 

 

 

As such millions of logs that previously would have never touched the market suddenly flooded on. crashing the price....

 

 

 

If they can ever repair the price or not is a different matter.... people may just become so used to the low price, that without JAgex intervention it would never raise.[/hide]

 

[hide=Primadog on Trends 12/31]OVERALL: There was a market depresssion across the board between 12/7 - 12/16th. The most obvious cause is the swiping RWT changes announced at 12/10th, therefore there are some truth to the market crash rumours. However, the prices seems to be returning to normal after that time.

 

 

 

ARMOUR: High level armour seem to be rising while mid range armour remain steady or lowering. I can't quite explain why (my best guess is the christmas and last-chance gifting)

 

 

 

HERBS: Herbs that results in high usage pots (such as ppot and supersets) appear to be rising steadily since in the later half of the month.

 

 

 

Otherwise, items that used to be macroed heavily have been rising (logs and ess), although the rise are less than I expected. [/hide]

 

[hide=Flammacor on MTK items 12/31]

 

Those are all goods people had sitting around in their bank from MTK, which they dumped into the GE when it came out. The potions doubtlessly affected the herbs as well, although tarromin might actually have gone up due to ashes become easily available if it weren't for the massive supply in people's banks. [/hide]

 

[hide=Adam007 on investment opportunities 12/31] Marrentil, cadantine, mahogony, teak, and silver all seem like they have the potential to raise the most at this point - might be worthy investments.[/hide]

 

[hide=Duke_freedom on armour 1/1]If I look at the armour that dropped in price, it is mostly armour that can be mass-made, but which used to be a pain to sell in mass on the market. However, thanks to the liquidity that is now available, this issue has been taken away and thus their prices could drop quite a bit.

 

 

 

High level armour may have risen as a result of the lowering rares prices. Another explanation may be that they actually dropped in price the weeks before the GE (as a result of the change that was made to dueling) and that they only regained what was lost. I haven't actually tracked their prices to know that though. [/hide]

 

[hide=Duke_freedom on index charts 1/1]To make more useful index graphs we would actually need more information about the trading volume in specific materials, something we don't have.

 

 

 

Without that, I suppose you could try to throw together a bunch of key materials as an index, like coal, iron, yew, maple, silver, gold, pure essence, normal essence, air runes and nature runes. Perhaps chaos, oak, mahagony and/or teak too. Some herbs in it would be necessary too. I'm not too well informed what the key (leveling) materials are, but I'd guess guam, harralander, tarromin, avantoe and/or irit. Best to choose 2 or 3 herbs (probably the first three), to have the exposure to each market similiarly.

 

 

 

The index should give each material the same weight. As a whole the index would roughly show the (costs of the?) secondary skills smithing, fletching, crafting, runecrafting, magic, construction and herblore.[/hide]

 

[hide=Ginger_warrior on inactive items 1/3]love the way it shows Jagex messed up on some of the prices and they were so off no one's prepared to sell items to rebalance the prices either. Fire runes seems a prefect example. The GE price I believe is somewhere around 11gp, yet in reality due to the vast amount of Fire Giant hunters they're only worth 2-5gp each. As a result, that line hasn't gone up or down. [/hide]

 

[hide=Duke_Freedom on GE Merchanting 1/3]However, merchanting is certainly not "dead": it has just changed. Good merchants quickly discovered the new opportunities and I would say merchanting is still as thriving as ever before, just differently. It is a shame that the GE has several shortcommings, but other than that it is a great system: for normal players as well as merchants.[/hide]

 

[hide=imsmart on Investment 1/5]I just invested 5m in Blood runes. I might invest up to another 25m over this weekend. They are selling for 330gp on GE. I predict they are going to rise in price. There is no way to loose money here, as I can just sell them on Karamja with gloves for the same 330 so there is no risk Smile[/hide][/hide]

[Chumley]

There is another fan site that is starting to collate and publish this sort of data. I thought you may want to know as it may help you in the collation of these figures. Can someone let me know if such links are ok to post?

[primadog]

From my understanding, linking is okay when it's not blatant advertisement (ie in context). Can you show me where it is?

 

 

 

BTW, you don't happen to refer to TWIRP or RSwiki, do you?

 

 

 

PS just found the wiki one, very impressive effort.

[Chumley]

From my understanding, linking is okay when it's not blatant advertisement (ie in context). Can you show me where it is?

 

 

 

BTW, you don't happen to refer to TWIRP or RSwiki, do you?

 

 

 

PS just found the wiki one, very impressive effort.

 

 

 

Yes I was referring to the Wiki one. As you say, it looks like it will be a really good resource once it is complete.

[SwreeTak]

Very nice graphics :). Thank you a lot for doing this :)

[qeltar]

Keep up the great work, primadog (and others). And thanks for the link in your initial post; but just use http://www.truthscape.com/twirp_report -- that will automagically redirect to the latest report.

 

 

 

For those interested in a set of tables showing current prices and weekly changes on over 300 important RS items, you can find them here.

 

 

 

~q

[Cruiser]

I'd just like to note for everyone that my graphs are just a preliminary hackjob put together from the excel sheet primadog has been keeping updated. I currently have to make some tweaks to the excel file and run it through a script to move it to the SQL database, so it won't be updated as fast as some may like (I started back to classes today too :x ). Hopefully I'll have some time between classes to put together an easier way to update the values for prima and others so they can be updated a bit faster.