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Price manipulation: right or wrong?


Guest Rob

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Look- the sharp rise could have easily been something legitimate like a new item that requires it, etc. Can't you get that? Even if you claim that I could know that by reading the news, the change could still be caused by other causes that are not reported like a newly discovered way of training that requires that item, etc.

 

 

 

Considering you claim to know so much about it, you're trying to tell me that you didn't know it was happening? :^o

 

A is independent. B is dependent on A.

 

If A happens, what will happen? You don't know.

 

If B happens, what caused it? A obviously.

 

 

 

Now, B is dependent on A,C,D,E,F, and G. If B happens, what caused it? Let's get even more like the real world economy and say that C is dependent on D, but D is dependent on A but also E. G is independent but mutually exclusive to A. F is mutually exclusive of B and D but dependent on C and A. If D happens, what are the causes of it and what will happen next? You could work this out with enough time. But even more like the real economy is if we had letters A through ZZZ. Butterfly Effect. In something as complex as the economy, you can't say that a sharp rise in price is because of price manipulation. You can take the observation and build a hypothesis, do research and create a mental experiment to support the hypothesis, but you can't prove it. For example, take karil's crossbow. I hypothesized that the sharp rise was due to price manipulation because of the following:

 

 

 

1. the price had been steady for a good number of months, not changing much

 

2. the price is more than 60% increase (i Believe, correct me if I'm wrong)

 

3. the price increase occurred around the time that other items that have a possibility of being manipulated rose sharply

 

 

 

Now, none of these factual observations prove 100% that price manipulation occurred. The only way to prove that price manipulation occurred would be to ask every single person who played runescape if they contributed to a clan's manipulation of the Karil's crossbow between the dates of June 24th to whatever. Even then, all of those people would have to be telling the truth and know exactly what happened in their past.

 

 

 

And even then, the price increase is still not proven to be caused by manipulation. There could have been a sudden, random shortage of crossbows, or maybe a sudden [bleep]e in people going for caves. Maybe people just didn't sell or invested randomly and independently in the crossbow and it went up by chance. Maybe people bought them all for max price because they were impatient.

 

 

 

You don't know for certain.

 

Observations -> factual or very hard to disprove.

 

Interpretations -> almost always arguable.

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Thanks for the very thorough post showing clearly where jrhairychest went wrong.

 

 

 

 

Look- the sharp rise could have easily been something legitimate like a new item that requires it, etc. Can't you get that? Even if you claim that I could know that by reading the news, the change could still be caused by other causes that are not reported like a newly discovered way of training that requires that item, etc.

 

 

 

Considering you claim to know so much about it, you're trying to tell me that you didn't know it was happening? :^o

 

 

 

I didn't claim to know a lot about it. To quote myself, I even admitted I sucked at economics.

 

 

 

Also if you don't know a single thing about economics like me, how the hell are you going to tell whether XXX item is being manipulated at all?

 

 

 

And as Fenrir said, interpretations are relative.

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Thanks for the very thorough post showing clearly where jrhairychest went wrong.

 

 

 

Also if you don't know a single thing about economics like me, how the hell are you going to tell whether XXX item is being manipulated at all?

 

 

 

Actually, if you believed that post, its actually saying you can't prove price manipulation. If that was true, that would mean those who are so against it would never be able to do anything about it.

 

 

 

In reality, RS is a virtual economy that can be tracked and it doesn't rely on other economies, unlike RL, so the complexity is minimised. Jagex could put algorithms in place to flag sharp rises in items and analyse it to see whats causing it. This could be cross-referenced to accounts to see 'who' is doing it, and cross referenced again to see which clan chat they've been involved in i.e. smoking mills or something. Obviously the last part would give the most problems but I'll bet they could do it if they wanted to. Trouble is, do they want to?

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In reality, RS is a virtual economy that can be tracked and it doesn't rely on other economies, unlike RL, so the complexity is minimised. Jagex could put algorithms in place to flag sharp rises in items and analyze it to see whats causing it. This could be cross-referenced to accounts to see 'who' is doing it, and cross referenced again to see which clan chat they've been involved in i.e. smoking mills or something. Obviously the last part would give the most problems but I'll bet they could do it if they wanted to. Trouble is, do they want to?

 

One could also argue that the world economy in real life is also one unit since if you were to replace every currency in the world with one, uniform currency, I can almost guarantee you that bread in England would cost differently than bread in Africa even though they would have the same currency.

 

 

 

But you can't use that model to assume that runescape is the same but on a smaller scale. One of the points in A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper is that something on a large scale does not necessarily work on a smaller scale and vice-versa (the example used in the book refers to how giant men with proportional body parts to ours would not stand because of the structure of the legs could not support the amount of weight.)

 

 

 

Therefore, you really can't say that runescape is a virtual economy; it is an economy.

 

 

 

On the next part of your response, I can't say for sure whether what you suggested is viable; I asked Jagex if they keep a trade record on every account a few years ago but they neither affirmed nor negated the question. I assume they do to a point since they would need to track RWT somehow. My only concern is the man power they have. Somehow, a j-mod would have to train a lvl x character, gain enough cash to be "legit", in order to fool the clan. Assuming they succeed, the mod would then proceed to have to do it again because the name would spread by word of mouth. Unless they botted (which would be so ironic, I'd laugh myself to death), I can't see any viable way to train those characters to lvl whatever and get the cash unless they played all day.

 

 

 

I do hope you're not suggesting that we paying customers pay Jagex to sit on their bums all day and play video games; that's our job :twisted: .

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One could also argue that the world economy in real life is also one unit since if you were to replace every currency in the world with one, uniform currency, I can almost guarantee you that bread in England would cost differently than bread in Africa even though they would have the same currency.

 

No they are very different things altogether. See below where your comments on RS being like a real economy are.

 

 

 

 

But you can't use that model to assume that runescape is the same but on a smaller scale. One of the points in A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper is that something on a large scale does not necessarily work on a smaller scale and vice-versa (the example used in the book refers to how giant men with proportional body parts to ours would not stand because of the structure of the legs could not support the amount of weight.)

 

For obvious reasons, I never take evidence from wiki as fact. Again, read down.

 

 

Therefore, you really can't say that runescape is a virtual economy; it is an economy.

 

It isn't because apart from rares there is no dependency. Anyone can go and max everything, get the items and the drops without any trade whatsoever. In theory apart from rares and bank space permitting, you could acquire everything. Its a virtual economy that we can exist without. Painful but it can be done. RL is much different.

 

 

 

 

On the next part of your response, I can't say for sure whether what you suggested is viable; I asked Jagex if they keep a trade record on every account a few years ago but they neither affirmed nor negated the question. I assume they do to a point since they would need to track RWT somehow. My only concern is the man power they have. Somehow, a j-mod would have to train a lvl x character, gain enough cash to be "legit", in order to fool the clan. Assuming they succeed, the mod would then proceed to have to do it again because the name would spread by word of mouth. Unless they botted (which would be so ironic, I'd laugh myself to death), I can't see any viable way to train those characters to lvl whatever and get the cash unless they played all day.

 

 

 

I do hope you're not suggesting that we paying customers pay Jagex to sit on their bums all day and play video games; that's our job :twisted: .

 

 

 

They could flag things like this if they really wanted to. They know the game mechanics and the algorithms to use. Even if they could not build a definitive version, they could certainly see whats happening with item prices when they rise beyond a certain limit in a certain time. It wouldn't be rocket science to see who is doing it. Again, would they want to? After all, its not in their best interests to ban a number of players for business reasons. Plus at this time it isn't against the rules, its just advised against doing it.

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Actually, if you believed that post, its actually saying you can't prove price manipulation. If that was true, that would mean those who are so against it would never be able to do anything about it.

 

 

 

You're getting it mixed up.

 

 

 

Jagex can OBSERVE the price manipulators' clan buying out thousands of items. That is an observation and a fact and very hard to disagree with.

 

 

 

The normal player can only INTERPRET the prices and suspect that price manipulators are at work.

 

 

 

So there's still a way to catch manipulators, but it would take a lot of resources and time.

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Actually, if you believed that post, its actually saying you can't prove price manipulation. If that was true, that would mean those who are so against it would never be able to do anything about it.

 

 

 

You're getting it mixed up.

 

 

 

Jagex can OBSERVE the price manipulators' clan buying out thousands of items. That is an observation and a fact and very hard to disagree with.

 

 

 

The normal player can only INTERPRET the prices and suspect that price manipulators are at work.

 

 

 

So there's still a way to catch manipulators, but it would take a lot of resources and time.

 

 

 

You seemed to only quote the top part of my post. I see you neglected the next part indicating that if Jagex wanted to catch them then they probably could. You misread this completely. I said if they wanted to they could.

 

 

 

Its actually very funny the way you say that you weren't aware of items actually being manipulated. I assume that you actually know the rough prices of things so its not exactly difficult when you look at the price of an item to see whats being manipulated. Claiming ignorance is no defence.

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If 1000 people buy out say, dark bows, all at max, and 700 of those people are regularly in the same clan chat with each other, then its safe to say they are price manipulating.

 

 

 

On the other hand, when 50 people buy out say, dark bows, all at max, but they use an external private forum and are not connected to each other in anyway, then its alot harder to prove.

 

 

 

Sure, jagex could go out on a limb and ban them, but they could claim they were told by a friend they might go up or simply merchanting it because they saw a [bleep]e in the price, etc. In that case is very hard to prove that they are price manipulators.

O.O

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One could also argue that the world economy in real life is also one unit since if you were to replace every currency in the world with one, uniform currency, I can almost guarantee you that bread in England would cost differently than bread in Africa even though they would have the same currency.

 

No they are very different things altogether. See below where your comments on RS being like a real economy are.

 

And the economies of several individual states are also very different. Economies share several trends, like supply and demand, but they are all unique. The world economy is a unique economy

 

 

 

 

But you can't use that model to assume that runescape is the same but on a smaller scale. One of the points in A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper is that something on a large scale does not necessarily work on a smaller scale and vice-versa (the example used in the book refers to how giant men with proportional body parts to ours would not stand because of the structure of the legs could not support the amount of weight.)

 

For obvious reasons, I never take evidence from wiki as fact. Again, read down.

 

I use wiki links a reference for better links. I have read the book, and it does say that. If you want an example, then why isn't there one person in charge of the country in the US? There's several people who vote democratically. But why so many? My school doesn't need that many people. Even if you take into account the ratios of authority to governed, if the country was large enough, then you'd need a third tier to govern the governors of the governed and so forth. You can't assume that something on a small scale will work on a large scale. Likewise, if we had three tiers of people in a school of 500, very little would get done in a small amount of time.

 

 

Therefore, you really can't say that runescape is a virtual economy; it is an economy.

 

It isn't because apart from rares there is no dependency. Anyone can go and max everything, get the items and the drops without any trade whatsoever. In theory apart from rares and bank space permitting, you could acquire everything. Its a virtual economy that we can exist without. Painful but it can be done. RL is much different.

 

I can learn to fish. I can learn to be completely self-sufficient like those guys in the colonial era. Therefore, we can live without a real world economy. The drawback is that everything would be changed to a snail's pace (which you said), just like if you were playing a single player game with no interaction. At some point, runescape would need an economy in order to grow with the expanding trade. Likewise, the settlers in Massachusetts would have discovered that if people specialized in jobs, then they could role in more money from trade.

 

 

 

We don't need an economy at the most basic level in both real life or runescape, but it behooves people to be able to do so.

 

 

 

 

On the next part of your response, I can't say for sure whether what you suggested is viable; I asked Jagex if they keep a trade record on every account a few years ago but they neither affirmed nor negated the question. I assume they do to a point since they would need to track RWT somehow. My only concern is the man power they have. Somehow, a j-mod would have to train a lvl x character, gain enough cash to be "legit", in order to fool the clan. Assuming they succeed, the mod would then proceed to have to do it again because the name would spread by word of mouth. Unless they botted (which would be so ironic, I'd laugh myself to death), I can't see any viable way to train those characters to lvl whatever and get the cash unless they played all day.

 

 

 

I do hope you're not suggesting that we paying customers pay Jagex to sit on their bums all day and play video games; that's our job :twisted: .

 

 

 

They could flag things like this if they really wanted to. They know the game mechanics and the algorithms to use. Even if they could not build a definitive version, they could certainly see whats happening with item prices when they rise beyond a certain limit in a certain time. It wouldn't be rocket science to see who is doing it. Again, would they want to? After all, its not in their best interests to ban a number of players for business reasons. Plus at this time it isn't against the rules, its just advised against doing it.

 

I'm assuming that "this" refers to price manipulation (it stumped me for a few seconds, so I'm just making sure). As I said above, the butterfly effect works constantly in an economy. Jagex is not all knowing and knows the exact mechanics of everything that enters the game. Hell, even Blizzard with all of their manpower still took about 5 years to get hunter mechanics down (and some people are now skeptical about the new focus system in patch 4.0) even though a hunter was one of their first classes. They are bound to overlook some things. For example, the obsidian necklace + obby sword combo gives more str exp per hour than a d scimmy. It was not in mainstream until a few months after tip.it put that tip in "Did you know?". The price climbed suddenly for a bit and then flattered out at a higher price.

 

 

 

This phenomenon can be explained with an S-Curve or a Bell Curve.

 

 

 

Certain things happen that go under the radar, and Jagex will sometimes be as much as a spectator as you or me. But no, it's not in their best interest business-wise to ban several people who are paying them money. On the flip-side, it is actually more beneficial in the long run because it will attract players who are responsible and not any random joe off the street. Jagex does not want a certain kind of customer, and customers who also don't want that certain kind of customer in their midst will applaud, join the game, and then advertise runescape through word of mouth.

 

 

 

That's what I'm theorizing in Jagex's reasoning. But the above paragraph is all speculation. The fact might be that Jagex does not perceive manipulation as a problem like they did when botting started up. Time will tell if they're right or wrong.

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Actually, if you believed that post, its actually saying you can't prove price manipulation. If that was true, that would mean those who are so against it would never be able to do anything about it.

 

 

 

You're getting it mixed up.

 

 

 

Jagex can OBSERVE the price manipulators' clan buying out thousands of items. That is an observation and a fact and very hard to disagree with.

 

 

 

The normal player can only INTERPRET the prices and suspect that price manipulators are at work.

 

 

 

So there's still a way to catch manipulators, but it would take a lot of resources and time.

 

 

 

You seemed to only quote the top part of my post. I see you neglected the next part indicating that if Jagex wanted to catch them then they probably could. You misread this completely. I said if they wanted to they could.

 

 

 

Its actually very funny the way you say that you weren't aware of items actually being manipulated. I assume that you actually know the rough prices of things so its not exactly difficult when you look at the price of an item to see whats being manipulated. Claiming ignorance is no defence.

 

 

 

Are you really that stupid?

 

 

 

I've said it twice already, but I guess three times the charm, so here goes:

 

 

 

Yes, I do know the rough price of items. Agreed.

 

Yes, if the price rises sharply, it's not exactly normal supply & demand. Agreed.

 

BUT if the price rises sharply, it is [cabbage] to immediately claim that it is being manipulated. As I said many times, it could be a newly-discovered way of using that item to train, maybe a new weapon/armor that uses that item, a new quest that uses it, etc etc.

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Here's something to settle it, taken from the Andrew Q&A on 3rd sept:

 

 

Mikeboi101 asks:

 

What are you personally concerned the most about today in RuneScape? Lately there has been the "Merching" epeidemic, how concerned are you about this and do you feel that further actions will be necessary to contain the damage(s) they are causing?

 

 

 

The attempts to price manipulate on the Grand Exchange are annoying, but not a massive concern in the grand scheme of things, as they are fairly easy to spot heuristically and we already have updates in the works to make it so this sort of thing doesnt work (the price just wont change).

 

 

 

A much more simpler solution than I'd suggested.

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Here's something to settle it, taken from the Andrew Q&A on 3rd sept:

 

Quote:

 

Mikeboi101 asks:

 

What are you personally concerned the most about today in RuneScape? Lately there has been the "Merching" epeidemic, how concerned are you about this and do you feel that further actions will be necessary to contain the damage(s) they are causing?

 

 

 

The attempts to price manipulate on the Grand Exchange are annoying, but not a massive concern in the grand scheme of things, as they are fairly easy to spot heuristically and we already have updates in the works to make it so this sort of thing doesnt work (the price just wont change).

 

 

 

A much more simpler solution than I'd suggested.

 

 

 

An excellent post, clearly evidences that price manipulation is not a massive concern and therefore is not against the rules in any way and that it is easy to spot. Looks like it won't be around much longer either. Having said that I have no doubt that someone will come along with another method of making money through some form of marketing. :?

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Here's something to settle it, taken from the Andrew Q&A on 3rd sept:

 

Quote:

 

Mikeboi101 asks:

 

What are you personally concerned the most about today in RuneScape? Lately there has been the "Merching" epeidemic, how concerned are you about this and do you feel that further actions will be necessary to contain the damage(s) they are causing?

 

 

 

The attempts to price manipulate on the Grand Exchange are annoying, but not a massive concern in the grand scheme of things, as they are fairly easy to spot heuristically and we already have updates in the works to make it so this sort of thing doesnt work (the price just wont change).

 

 

 

A much more simpler solution than I'd suggested.

 

 

 

An excellent post, clearly evidences that price manipulation is not a massive concern and therefore is not against the rules in any way and that it is easy to spot. Looks like it won't be around much longer either. Having said that I have no doubt that someone will come along with another method of making money through some form of marketing. :?

 

 

 

Oh yeah?

 

 

 

I AM right. It was against the rules - otherwise why the hell are they doing something about it? Your logic is really [cabbage]. If it's not against the rules they wouldn't be doing anything about it, would they?

 

 

 

But yes, people have massively exaggerated the problems price manipulation caused.

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26/75king is not against the rules, they are trying to fix it though.

 

 

 

In the same way, price manipulation is not against the rules, but they are also trying to fix it.

 

 

 

They didn't say it was against the rules, but it was clearly against the rules, otherwise why would they fix it? If it was not illegal, why catch people doing it/prevent them from doing it?

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Fenrir, please stick to facts. Its almost like your trying to prove something with all of this. There really is no need.

 

I am.

 

I am also trying to prove that:

 

1. Price manipulation is not the sole cause of any manipulated price

 

2. The economy is unpredictable

 

3. It's almost impossible very difficult to pin a price solely on price manipulation

 

 

 

If you're referring to my claim of mere speculation, I was referring to the last paragraph dealing with my interpretation of Jagex's actions, not the entirety of my post.

 

 

 

If there's no need to prove something, then you're arguing opinions, which by definition is not an argument. But if there's no need to prove something because it's already been stated, then why hasn't this thread died yet? :?

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They didn't say it was against the rules, but it was clearly against the rules, otherwise why would they fix it? If it was not illegal, why catch people doing it/prevent them from doing it?

 

 

 

Prevention is better than banning a load of people for something Jagex should have worked out ages ago. The players found they could get away with it, and there was nothing in the rulebook to stop it, just advisory notes not to get involved with it. You stated in an earlier post that Jagex were going to ban it, yet you couldn't prove it. If it was so clearly against the rules as you state, then they would have done something about it.

 

 

 

You saw my post. Jagex aren't even treating it as a priority. Thats how against the rules it is.

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I am.

 

I am also trying to prove that:

 

1. Price manipulation is not the sole cause of any manipulated price Incoherent

 

2. The economy is unpredictable Correct

 

3. It's almost impossible very difficult to pin a price solely on price manipulation heuristically possible by Jagex accounts

 

 

 

If you're referring to my claim of mere speculation, I was referring to the last paragraph dealing with my interpretation of Jagex's actions, not the entirety of my post. Nope, just that you don't have to impress anyone by going over the top in your debate. Keep it simple.

 

 

 

If there's no need to prove something, then you're arguing opinions, which by definition is not an argument [debate can be formed of opinion as well as fact, otherwise there would be no war in the world due to religion etc. where there are no definitive 'facts'.]. But if there's no need to prove something because it's already been stated, then why hasn't this thread died yet? :?Agreed.

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Technically, war over religion is debating over beliefs or interpretations of the world around us, not opinions.

 

 

 

An opinion is formed as thus:

 

"I believe the sky is green."

 

 

 

A belief is as follows:

 

"The sky is green."

 

 

 

You can't disprove an opinion because one can't get into another's head and know for certain; you just take their word for it. Although that doesn't really have much importance with this kind of argument, the distinction will serve you well when getting into tooth-and-nail debates like politics since the realm of opinions is the "welfare armor for pk debating".

 

 

 

I don't really mind conglomerating opinions and beliefs into 1 word, but there are some people out their who would go on national television and destroy any dignity you have just for making that blurred misconception. So, I don't mind, but just a forewarning ::' .

 

 

 

edit: as for keeping it simple, I have a habit of rambling. I like writing a lot, and I try to keep my longer pieces as coherent as I can, but I regrettably go off on a tangent sometimes :wall: .

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They didn't say it was against the rules, but it was clearly against the rules, otherwise why would they fix it? If it was not illegal, why catch people doing it/prevent them from doing it?

 

 

 

Prevention is better than banning a load of people for something Jagex should have worked out ages ago. The players found they could get away with it, and there was nothing in the rulebook to stop it, just advisory notes not to get involved with it. You stated in an earlier post that Jagex were going to ban it, yet you couldn't prove it. If it was so clearly against the rules as you state, then they would have done something about it.

 

 

 

You saw my post. Jagex aren't even treating it as a priority. Thats how against the rules it is.

 

 

 

Now just because they're discussing about it or something like that on how to deal with it and not exactly treating it as a priority doesn't mean it isn't against the rules.

 

 

 

Face it - it IS against the rules, no matter "how against the rules it is". If something is against the rules, it is against the rules, no matter how serious it is. So stop trying to make it sound as if it wasn't.

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Now just because they're discussing about it or something like that on how to deal with it and not exactly treating it as a priority doesn't mean it isn't against the rules.

 

 

 

Face it - it IS against the rules, no matter "how against the rules it is". If something is against the rules, it is against the rules, no matter how serious it is. So stop trying to make it sound as if it wasn't.

 

 

 

Prove it then. You show me an official rule from Jagex that states price manipulation is against the rules.

 

I would recommend you read this link before you go any further.

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Technically, war over religion is debating over beliefs or interpretations of the world around us, not opinions.

 

 

 

An opinion is formed as thus:

 

"I believe the sky is green."

 

 

 

A belief is as follows:

 

"The sky is green."

 

 

 

You can't disprove an opinion because one can't get into another's head and know for certain; you just take their word for it. Although that doesn't really have much importance with this kind of argument, the distinction will serve you well when getting into tooth-and-nail debates like politics since the realm of opinions is the "welfare armor for pk debating".

 

 

 

I don't really mind conglomerating opinions and beliefs into 1 word, but there are some people out their who would go on national television and destroy any dignity you have just for making that blurred misconception. So, I don't mind, but just a forewarning ::' .

 

 

 

edit - Did you not notice what you wrote?

 

 

 

An opinion is formed as thus:

 

"I believe the sky is green."

 

 

 

A belief is as follows:

 

"The sky is green."

 

 

 

They are the same thing. In particular look at the first definition. ;)

 

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/opinion

 

 

 

edit: as for keeping it simple, I have a habit of rambling. I like writing a lot, and I try to keep my longer pieces as coherent as I can, but I regrettably go off on a tangent sometimes :wall: .

 

Trouble is very few seem to respond to you in debate club when you do.

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Now just because they're discussing about it or something like that on how to deal with it and not exactly treating it as a priority doesn't mean it isn't against the rules.

 

 

 

Face it - it IS against the rules, no matter "how against the rules it is". If something is against the rules, it is against the rules, no matter how serious it is. So stop trying to make it sound as if it wasn't.

 

 

 

Prove it then. You show me an official rule from Jagex that states price manipulation is against the rules.

 

I would recommend you read this link before you go any further.

 

 

 

Your link is not related at all.

 

 

 

Merchanting, whether in clans or not is NOT price manipulation. Enough said. Merchanting is using skill to predict the market, whereas price manipulation is using brute force. Merchants don't affect the market adversely, whereas price manipulation does.

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