Phat crash close?

[Flamemaker89]

Please note that im not intending to lower prices or something, i want them to go up even more. But still, phats are higher then ever now, and its a known thing that phats mostly crash on the end of the year. These 2 things are an easy explanation for a coming crash. Maybe the traditional crash is closer then we think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh and btw: plz dont post 'they wont crash' just because ur a seller..

[blennas]

Please note that im not intending to lower prices or something, i want them to go up even more. But still, phats are higher then ever now, and its a known thing that phats mostly crash on the end of the year. These 2 things are an easy explanation for a coming crash. Maybe the traditional crash is closer then we think?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Oh and btw: plz dont post 'they wont crash' just because ur a seller..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

haha i like the last sentence of that :P, but umm yer also at christams they can increase gr8ly even more like santas did, from 200k which they were stable at for ages to over 1 mill. so yer it cud swing both ways

[Aus_Fighter]

I dont care if they go up or down i have 3 and i doubt if i will even sell them ever :?

[blennas]

hey aus fighter were u ds with me last yr?

[frogmite]

rares atm are very dodgy, but some things can be counted on, and yes this i think is one.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i will not directly condone either tho :)

[voodoo_josh]

I reckon they could drop before or after christmas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Firstly, because merchanters like r2 have been talking about people anticipating the DROP in masks at halloween because people anticipate that they normally would rise, so they dont buy which therefore forces the prices down.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Secondly, last year the same happened. Prices were up at christams then BOOM. 2 days after christams i bought a few sants for under 200k,and phats were down.

[oddfaery2]

I personally don't care... Rares are kinda useless and I don't worry about how much GP i have or how much I make by letting one sit in my bank... just a matter of time before some keyloggin SoB comes for ya anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I won't ever buy a phat again, no matter how much $ i make.

[pawnz]

I personally don't care... Rares are kinda useless and I don't worry about how much GP i have or how much I make by letting one sit in my bank... just a matter of time before some keyloggin SoB comes for ya anyway.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I won't ever buy a phat again, no matter how much $ i make.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thats what mules are for $$$$

[Flamemaker89]

Lol its so easy to make money with them, i went from 20m to 50m in 6 weeks. :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And what can i keylogger do without knowing my PIN :D

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Btw lets go ontopic again :roll:

[Aus_Fighter]

hey aus fighter were u ds with me last yr?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Na man i am only 103 combat :P

[blennas]

 

hey aus fighter were u ds with me last yr?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Na man i am only 103 combat :P

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

kk :oops:

[Triplets_KGB]

hey aus fighter were u ds with me last yr?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whats ds?

[drgnslyer_15]

imo the only unstable rare is the santa hat.. party hats have slowly been on the incline not the decline... the only time i've seen em drop is when the dupe happened (man i wish i would have bought all the hats in sight that day) party hats are rather stable... the only one i would be concerned about is the santa.. 1 day they can be 2 million and the next like 100k that shows the stability of that rare

[goku_nazz]

Party hats will keep rising, they are extremely sought after as a future investment. People are willing to pay more and more each day. I don't think a huge crash will happen, maybe a 5 mil decrease after new years.

[Artie_900]

It's absolutely possible that p-hat prices will go down over the holidays, especially if other rares are going up to compensate. I won't go so far as to say it's likely, but it's definitely possible. The thing is, it's not going to be some massive multi-million price drop, and the prices will probably recover entirely inside of a month.

[Duke_Freedom]

But still, phats are higher then ever now

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So? They are higher then ever 90% of the time, because rares always go up in the long-term* ;).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*providing no significant changes happen to the economy

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

and its a known thing that phats mostly crash on the end of the year.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A known thing? New for me. Apart from santa's nothing really tends to 'crash' around x-mas time. If you want hard facts: yes phats started to drop at the start of december 2004 (at the 8th according to my data) and hit their rock bottom of approximately 10% lower at 23th of december, after which they started to rise again. I wouldn't really call that a 'crash' and besides that it had totally other reasons which had nothing to do with periodical fluctuation at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If anything, I would give a warning about santa's. They do tend to drop significantly around x-mas times and IMO they have been priced too high for quite a while already.

[Flamemaker89]

Hm, if u say it then i better believe it. And btw, i heard other well-known merchants talking about a traditional crash, so i thaught it was true.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Hm so u think santas are a bad investment for the coming holidays :o

[blackrazor]

Any rare is an excellent investment for the long term, providing Jagex does nothing to change the availability, desirability and tradability of these rare items. In simple terms, as long as:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1) Rares remain in a well supported and popular game.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

2) Rares remain visible on your character, giving it a unique look.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

3) New rares are no longer created.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4) Rares remain tradable.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

... then they will very likely rise in value over time.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In fact, cheaper rares, like Santas and Masks, may represent better long term investments, since they have more room to grow to extraordinary prices. Years from now, the fact that some of these rares were introduced to the game a year earlier than others will make little difference. The recent upwards movement of Santas may be a reflection of this.

[BLENDER_]

its crazy how much people love to change the prices in hopes to make a million or 2..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

a month or 2 ago i was staking on my main(107 combat, 91 str 88 attack, 81 def, 88 hp) only using d-dagger and whip and i went from having 1.9 mill to having over 200 million in gp and items(green yellow purp party hat, 9 or 10 santas, 3 dragon squ, green halloween mask 75 mill gp).. i eventually lost it all but if i kept it .. it would be worth likr over 300 mill now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

that goes to show if u wanna be rich get lots of rares and keep selling em

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

i cant wait until runescape "accidently" makes a dupe possible and it happens..

[Duke_Freedom]

In fact, cheaper rares, like Santas and Masks, may represent better long term investments, since they have more room to grow to extraordinary prices. Years from now, the fact that some of these rares were introduced to the game a year earlier than others will make little difference. The recent upwards movement of Santas may be a reflection of this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Over the past 1.5 year all rares, with the exception of santa's, grew practically the same in price, that is including masks, easters, pumpkins, disks and half wines - all low end rares except santa's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Santa's nearly four-doubled more then other rares in the same time. I can do nothing else but see it as an overpricing of santa's right now or underpricing of santa's 1.5 year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Either way, all other rares tend to rise the same procentually over time.

[topabo]

that will only go up i had 3 phat all for 50k ap (thats whas in rsc so dont think b-sh*t) i sold them about a year and a half ago and now i cursethat day sincethay only went up and thay will keep rising since the phat will never ever be a x-mas drop again and will only become rarer

[drgnslyer_15]

well at least duke agrees with me that santas are unstable..

[PlutoniumCross]

p hats arent going to drop stupidly, but on the other hand, santas. Santas are being way overhyped as "going for well over 10m at christmas". This is not gonna happen. No ones gonna pay that much for the most common rare in the game. If anythings gonna plummet its gonna be santas not p hats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

*sells off 4 santas*

[Zibl]

Phats aren't going anywhere if you ask me. Maybe a slight drop around the holidays, but nothing too dramatic. Then they will continue to increase.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Think about it. The only reason party hat prices have ever died, is because of duping. Other than that, they stay fairly stable, or they rise. I remember getting my 5th pink party hat about 2 months before the big duping. That's when they were around 15 million. After the dupe, they plumited yes, but I knew it was only a mater of time before they went back up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It's really all about how the majority of the people act. If the price drops slightly over time, lots of people tend to get worried and sell their hat(s). Thus making the price drop lower. Eventually this stops, and they revert and start to try and buy BACK their hat(s)... which drives the prices up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Without a dupe, I don't see party hats crashing. And the way RuneScape is becoming, in 6 months I wouldn't be surprised if the party hats sale for ddouble what they are worth now.

[fx1970]

I doubt they can ever drop, simply because no one are added anymore to the game.

 

 

 

They can only disappear (ban, dying, alchimy, ...)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So, as they are the rarest in rsc, there will always be a demand by people insanely rich and willing to show it.( less certain with half jug of wine as you cant show it)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Therefore, it can only be a good investment over time.

 

 

 

It can suffer of some seasonality, but on the long term, it can only increase.