My question is... What are our prospects for bolt racks in the future? Does this rise have precedence? Will TDs actually recover as a moneymaker?

 

EDIT: Since I missed my initial edit, everyone seems totally lost. This is the reasoning and it's fairly obvious once you think about it.

 

Frosts = ded nao lol

 

Bolt racks started rising as they started crashing.

 

Explanation? Maxed players deciding that the abiltity to pretty much afk frosts isn't worth the reduced income and are moving to other sources. TDs have been the best solo moneymaker after frosts for a long time. It would make sense that they'd make the sacrifice of having to use effort to farm them.

 

Here's where bolt racks come in. Karil's is widely acknowledged as the best way to kill TDs due to the lack of usefulness of enchanted bolts there, and the preference for melee when dealing damage. Its high speed allows one to force the demon to cycle prayers more quickly while having more dps than a metal crossbows. This sacrifices the use of a deflector but it can be argued that the dragon defender is actually more effective due to Darklight accuracy being one of the most severe limiting factors in TD efficiency. It should also be mentioned that bolt racks are rarely used anywhere else as their price and lower xp/hour make chins preferable for training, while the sacrifices of enchanted bolts and a shield are too much to make for a large number of bosses (Kree is fought with solely range, leading to ruby bolts being more efficient for more of the fight, as opposed to melee doing most of the work vs TDs. Zily requires kiting, providing weapons with lower rate of fire and higher stats per shot an advantage. Nex is Nex).

 

Why is it not simply due to the removal of PvP worlds? That obviously has a large part to play as well. However, such a ridiculously rapid crash preceded by moneymaker migration points to this as major a catalyst.

What is your question? I do not see a correlation of d claw prices and bolt racks. Dragon claws mainly dropped because they no longer get taken out of the game with PVP. Contributing factors to their decline are better gear (easier to kill tds), and more players that can access them.

Also, if the price of bolt racks went up that would mean the price of claws should increase (or in this case not fall as much), because it costs more money to produce dragon claws. Increase in cost of production decreases supply which should increase the price. Although i don't think many people use karils xbow at TD's anyway.

Thats like saying that an increase in the price of air runes caused the crash of whips...there must be only one answer to this problem

 

 

 

TROLL!

 

IN THE DUNGEON!

 

I thought you should know... *faints*

 

 

 

 

 

:wall:

simple answers: none, no, and possibly

I don't see how anyone could think rise of bolt racks have any correlation to the dclaw crash..

 

As stated above: "Claws fell because they aren't getting deleted from the game in pvp worlds anymore, just trading hands by kill and everyday more and more people get higher levels and better gear adding competition."

My only guess would be that he is suggesting the increased demand for bolt racks is caused by a greater amount of TD hunters, since bolt racks are widely acknowledged as one of the best ways to kill them and not used in very many other places. More hunters leads to more claws, hence the drop in prices. Just a guess

This is a great example of Post hoc egro propter hoc fallacy.

 

Knowing the definitions of common logical fallacies does not vastly improve one's ability to reason. Read on.

 

My only guess would be that he is suggesting the increased demand for bolt racks is caused by a greater amount of TD hunters, since bolt racks are widely acknowledged as one of the best ways to kill them and not used in very many other places. More hunters leads to more claws, hence the drop in prices. Just a guess

 

This exactly. It's pretty plain to see, considering the market's been nearly saturated with these for a long time. Only now have they hit an all-time low after floating steadily between 19-24m for a long time after free treade. It'd also be a fair assumption that the crash of frost bones has lead to TDs becoming more popular in the first place, causing bolt racks to skyrocket and claws to crash. I'm not entirely sure how all of you before this poster failed to understand the situation.

 

We can all blame the bots for driving claws down now. Good times.

 

EDIT: It was my fault for forgetting about this. I had originally meant to edit the thread to provide my reasoning after the post but Tip.it looked like it was timing out during the post so I left it until it had finished handling my request or timing out to avoid a potential double-thread. Turns out my short-term memory is bad.

Correlation does not imply causation.

 

While what you say is true - I'm sure the skyrocket-ing prices of the bolt rack are not just due to the TD's.

After all, even if there's one player per world hunting T.D's all day - there's still not that many bolt racks being used. (Handcannons are just as - if not more effective)

Maybe with the addition of so many "easily accessible" money makers - not many people choose to barrows anymore.

 

Anyhow, T.D's are great money makers despite the claws dropping in price. In addition, there are other amazing reasons to go to T.D's: effigies, charm, etc

Don't expect this bolt price to continue - I'm sure it's going to drop soon.

Your barrows theory doesn't really hold up due to all those easily-accessible methods crashing during bolt racks' rising period. Bolt racks were also at their cheapest during the golden age of dragon bones and infernals. Unless there has been a trully staggering backup of bolt racks somewhere, this seems highly unlikely. Those secondary reasons behind TD hunting may be correct but the proportion of players who have always been hunting TDs for the charms and effigies with claws being a bonus lkikely pales in comparison to all the maxed melee turm/ovlers with yaks who migrated from the rapidly-crashing frosts.

This is a great example of Post hoc egro propter hoc fallacy.

 

Knowing the definitions of common logical fallacies does not vastly improve one's ability to reason. Read on.

 

 

And anyway the icecream example/ causation does not imply correlation is an example of [bleep] hoc ergo propter hoc rather than post hoc ergo propter hoc as the ordering isn't important. /pedant

 

OT: It only seems likely to be a relatively weak causal link with more traditional supply/demand effects dominating.

Wait, so you guys are saying that claws are dropping for some other reason?

 

Mind=blown

Wait, so you guys are saying that claws are dropping for some other reason?

 

Mind=blown

 

Who me? Not really. I'd imagine that the fact claws aren't disappearing from the game would increase the supply and form part of the dominating supply/demand effects I mentioned. That and possibly more people hunting TDs.

Wait, so you guys are saying that claws are dropping for some other reason?

 

Mind=blown

 

Who me? Not really. I'd imagine that the fact claws aren't disappearing from the game would increase the supply and form part of the dominating supply/demand effects I mentioned. That and possibly more people hunting TDs.

 

You fell into my sar-chasm.... :rolleyes:

You do realize.... wait for it..

 

Scroll down, you may not be ready to take the blunt of it

 

 

 

BOLT RACKS ARE NOT THE ONLY WAY TO KILL TDS

*slap*

You do realize.... wait for it..

 

Scroll down, you may not be ready to take the blunt of it

 

 

 

BOLT RACKS ARE NOT THE ONLY WAY TO KILL TDS

*slap*

 

I shouldn't respond to stupid posts with cutting sarcasm in my own threads but...

 

*clapclap*

You do realize.... wait for it..

 

Scroll down, you may not be ready to take the blunt of it

 

 

 

BOLT RACKS ARE NOT THE ONLY WAY TO KILL TDS

*slap*

 

I shouldn't respond to stupid posts with cutting sarcasm in my own threads but...

 

*clapclap*

What are you trying to say then? You haven't given a reason linking Bolt Rack prices with Claw prices.

What are you trying to say then? You haven't given a reason linking Bolt Rack prices with Claw prices.

 

My only guess would be that he is suggesting the increased demand for bolt racks is caused by a greater amount of TD hunters, since bolt racks are widely acknowledged as one of the best ways to kill them and not used in very many other places. More hunters leads to more claws, hence the drop in prices. Just a guess

 

This exactly. It's pretty plain to see, considering the market's been nearly saturated with these for a long time. Only now have they hit an all-time low after floating steadily between 19-24m for a long time after free treade. It'd also be a fair assumption that the crash of frost bones has lead to TDs becoming more popular in the first place, causing bolt racks to skyrocket and claws to crash. I'm not entirely sure how all of you before this poster failed to understand the situation.

 

Your barrows theory doesn't really hold up due to all those easily-accessible methods crashing during bolt racks' rising period. Bolt racks were also at their cheapest during the golden age of dragon bones and infernals. Unless there has been a trully staggering backup of bolt racks somewhere, this seems highly unlikely. Those secondary reasons behind TD hunting may be correct but the proportion of players who have always been hunting TDs for the charms and effigies with claws being a bonus lkikely pales in comparison to all the maxed melee turm/ovlers with yaks who migrated from the rapidly-crashing frosts.

 

Should I edit these into my initial post?

You do realize.... wait for it..

 

Scroll down, you may not be ready to take the blunt of it

 

 

 

BOLT RACKS ARE NOT THE ONLY WAY TO KILL TDS

*slap*

 

To be honest that isn't really an argument against an increase in the use of TD hunting being responsible for an increase in bolt rack consumption. It doesn't matter what percentage of hunters use racks, it matters what percentage of the racks available are used by hunters. Even if most hunters don't use the racks it is still possible that those who do are using so many that the price is increasing.