Economics anyone?

[Ramps_Kill]

A few days ago I made a thread on the rs forums called "A fletching conundrum" where I predicted that due to rising yew long supplies verses falling yew long prices, that the market would eventually crash when it was no longer profitable for fletcher's.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I believe I was correct.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Although I didn't expect it to happen so soon. If you were to go into the rs forums right now under fletching, you will find that prices are basically everywhere. BS sellers are unloading their product for prices as low as 175ea (from a quick over view of forums earlier today). Also, compared to the 350ea yew log sellers were pushing just the other day, the price is down to 300 even 280ea. Not to mention some people are buying yew longs for 600ea again.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Bare in mind this was earlier today and markets this isolated tend to correct themselves fairly quickly.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Now, what I suggest is that this may be happening in other areas.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I took a break for about a month, I come back early Feb. and find that selling all my dragon items (save d sqr), which seemed to be a great idea due to naturally falling prices. Turned out to be a mistake, prices have actually risen on everything I owned almost except for whip and d sqr.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So does anyone have an economic theory regarding this change in the normal pattern of things?

[Danlee]

I'd have to say that since runescape is becoming so hugh - so many people are going to play, max out skills, and make alot of money, but if we get alot of skillers the number of items that people are making are going to rise, causeing those items to be cheaper, and things like santas and other rares go up, because soon (if they dont go up) alot of people will have them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

so basically,

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

1. items that skillers make are going to go down

 

 

 

2. rares will go up

[Ramps_Kill]

But that doesn't explain why the expensive items like d legs furys ect.. are going up when they normally go down.

[Danlee]

well, it sorta does.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

people are making alot, therefore people selling expensive items are taking advantage of the people who are making alot by making the prices higher on them

[la la la]

I believe that stable items such as armor and weapons are (in general) going up with the inflation, as more and more money is brought into the game every day.

[Danlee]

I believe that stable items such as armor and weapons are (in general) going up with the inflation, as more and more money is brought into the game every day.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

exactly what im trying to say, more money is coming in

[Ramps_Kill]

Yeah, inflation is a problem with the massive amounts of mages, but usually it balances out. I mean the sudden [bleep]e has only happened in the last month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT -

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Plus rares aren't really rising, santas have actually gone down.

[PhelimReagh]

Skill capes were released.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rares like Party Hats, Santas, Masks, etc. are being sold to purchase resources.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This has been driving down the price of rares, but driving up the price of resources.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's more, high level players are now skilling for 99, and not killing the Kalphite Queen or other monsters that drop dragon items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ergo, prices are not dropping on those items because the supply is not increasing with the demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High level wants fletching cape, sells santa to buy yews at above-market pries. Yew cutters have more money, want d-legs. High level too busy fletching to get more d-legs into the market, so the price of existing d-legs go up to meet demand.

[JFonseka]

predicting what happens in runescape's economy is quite simple really. All the information is out there, especially with all the buyers and sellers in the forum.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I just couldn't give a rat's [wagon] about fletching or anything to do with it, because im f2p and i doubt ill ever b a member.

[biggy08755]

Well right now is a bad time for the economy. Many merchants and stakers where banned for price manipulating. Claiming there was another dupe to try and lower prices. Prices should return to normal in a few weeks. At least for rares...

[Ramps_Kill]

Skill capes were released.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Rares like Party Hats, Santas, Masks, etc. are being sold to purchase resources.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

This has been driving down the price of rares, but driving up the price of resources.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

What's more, high level players are now skilling for 99, and not killing the Kalphite Queen or other monsters that drop dragon items.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ergo, prices are not dropping on those items because the supply is not increasing with the demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

High level wants fletching cape, sells santa to buy yews at above-market pries. Yew cutters have more money, want d-legs. High level too busy fletching to get more d-legs into the market, so the price of existing d-legs go up to meet demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

That seems to be the best explanation, although skill capes have been around longer than the past month.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes, I know the rs economy is simple to predict, which is how I guessed the fletching market would have a micro crash.

[Hobgoblin11]

How long have you observed these changes in the market for? Because the market and RS economy is dynamic 24-7, the prices do not stay the same.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The price of logs, etc. is always fluctuating, and sometimes it doesn' really need a reason. If someone posts 'Selling yew logs, 320 each', then another player who is also looking to sell their logs, may also be inclined to sell at this inflated price. If enough sellers decide that they are willing to go in for the long-haul to try and get as much as they possibly can for their logs, rather than just seling them quickly, then the price will change temporarily.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think it's time to consult Duke_Freedom on this one.

[Kewl_Sabre]

Normally I'd agree that usually stable items like armour will go up with inflation.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

But over the past few weeks the price of full rune has been falling dramatically. A few months ago it was 200-210k, but now the average price seems to be 170-180k. I've seen far more people selling full rune in Varrock than buying it. For whatever reason it seems the supply is now much, much higher than the demand.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Anyone know why the price of full rune has been dropping?

[Duke_Freedom]

To Ramps_Kill:

 

 

 

- Such a small price drop / price fluctuation is not called a crash.

 

 

 

- Especially if yew logs didn't even drop and are still being sold ~350 each at the moment.

 

 

 

- Yew logs, bow strings and yew longs (s) do have effects on each other prices. A rise in the price of yew logs like we are observing now, generally works positively on the price of yew longs (s) as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To PhelimReagh:

 

 

 

- The skill cape arguement is extremely flawed considering yew logs are about the only resource that changed in price since the introduction of skill capes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To JFonseka:

 

 

 

- Saying runescape's economy is "simple to predict" means you have no idea what predicting means. Predicting is not yelling random future price estimates for items without any facts backing you up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To Kewl_Sabre:

 

 

 

- I'm sure that rune armour didn't change in price at all, since you're about the 38952934 person to claim they dropped in price over the last 4 years, while they never changed in price. Observing one person selling lower then average is not a price drop and rune items can't drop anymore as their high alch values prevent this.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Don't got much else to say on this topic.

[Kewl_Sabre]

 

 

 

To Kewl_Sabre:

 

 

 

- I'm sure that rune armour didn't change in price at all, since you're about the 38952934 person to claim they dropped in price over the last 4 years, while they never changed in price. Observing one person selling lower then average is not a price drop and rune items can't drop anymore as their high alch values prevent this.

 

 

 

I'm glad your sure, but that doesn't change the fact that there are about 7 people selling rune in Varrock, and not one of them is over 180k.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I've been there for a week and it's been relatively consistent. But I am new to the economy, so I'm not sure if this kind of thing is usual or not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EDIT:And if it is unusual, feel free to tell me and I'll buy a few rune sets now while they're low. :XD:

[Gerthddyn]

Kewl_Sabre - Perhaps they're selling full rune without kite? They are generally 170-180k.

[PhelimReagh]

To PhelimReagh:

 

 

 

- The skill cape arguement is extremely flawed considering yew logs are about the only resource that changed in price since the introduction of skill capes.

 

 

 

Compared to back in October when skill capes were released, you're quite wrong.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Smithing

 

 

 

(1) Iron used to be easy to get at 90 some months ago. Now I offer 110 and often don't get takers. (2) Gold ore was not 500 gp 5 months ago. (3) I used to trade ores and 60 gp for steel bars (70 for my good producers), when 50 was the highest offer below mine. Now, 90-100 gp is the fee, and steel bar prices are much, much harder to find below 600. The increasing popularity of Miscellania has kept coal prices in check.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Cooking

 

 

 

Raw lobbies could have been found for 200. 250 is now the bottom for raws.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Crafting

 

 

 

The birth of the green dragon autoers helped keep hide prices in check, so crafting (and prayer for that matter) can't be evaluated, really.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Runecrafting

 

 

 

Pure Essence is now 110, used to be able to find easily for under 100. Conversely, with so many people Runecrafting for 99, runes are cheaper to get these days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Construction

 

 

 

Peaked soon after it's release, then ebbed. The number of plank buyers, and the price they're paying, however, are rising again lately, it looks like.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I haven't been as watchful of things like herb and seed prices, so I don't know if there has been any similair changes. But it's hard to imagine that herblore and farming would be immune to these same trends.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So I'm not sure what game you're playing, but all the resource consuming skills have gotten far pricier, albeit gradually, in the 5 months since the release of skill capes.

[Duke_Freedom]

It's funny how difficult it can be to agree about what the prices were at one point. I wonder if you actually wrote down the prices though.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

To my records, iron, coal, steel bars (50gp is not a change on a 600gp item - steel bars have been 650gp plenty of times before - like exactly a year ago), natures, laws, bloods, bow strings and pure essence didn't change at all. Raw lobs did indeed change, but their prices right now are in fact exactly the same as a year ago too.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only yew logs rose significantly since then and they are also 10% higher than a year ago - but it's rather questionable whether skill capes played any role in that at all. My bet would be that there's a lot less autoing now than back then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is probably of no use to continue arguing about the actual prices though since we'll continue to disagree anyway.

[The_Magus]

Pricing is largely anecdotal. I'm also not sure if you'd consider the higher costs of fletching materials as inflation or the beginnings of a recession.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

At any rate, I'm shocked to hear of an increase in the price of yews given that there should still be an ample supply.

[Kewl_Sabre]

Kewl_Sabre - Perhaps they're selling full rune without kite? They are generally 170-180k.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yea, when I First saw the prices that's what I assumed. But then I saw a few people shouting, "Selling full rune w/o kite 155k!!!"

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm not sure how permanent this drop is, but there seems to be at least a temporary dip in rune prices.

[maximus]

In an economy ran by 12 year olds. There need not be any theorys explaining anything...

[PhelimReagh]

...like exactly a year ago... exactly the same as a year ago too.

 

 

 

Except that we're comparing prices today to prices in October, when Skill Capes were released. Not one year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While it may be convenient for your theory of "there's nothing to see here", creating a strawman argument to knock down is intellectually lazy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only yew logs rose significantly since then and they are also 10% higher than a year ago - but it's rather questionable whether skill capes played any role in that at all. My bet would be that there's a lot less autoing now than back then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is probably of no use to continue arguing about the actual prices though since we'll continue to disagree anyway.

 

 

 

Let's get a little perspective on the authority with which you're making your claims.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I read on another thread recently that "Duke_Freedom" was banned some time ago, and you haven't been playing much/at all since then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please clarify for us how long it's been since you've actually played Runescape, have gone looking for resources, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're arrogantly dismissing everyone's claims as if your perspective is the be-all, end-all of Runescapian economics. But that statement I've highlighted above would actually indicate that you haven't been playing much at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Autoers are everywhere, they've moved into P2P killing dragons for bones and hides, mining pure essence, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are more of them, and they're getting more and more sophisticated. So despite the increase of autoers, and the corresponding increase in supply of resources, the prices are going up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why has demand gone up so dramatically since October, in the face of this increased supply?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke Freedom: Oh no reason. Just a natural fluctation of the market. I know, because I used to play the game a while back and I know everything, and always will.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you were offering a competing theory, or had some other explanation than a pompous and lazy "poop happens", you'd have a bit more credibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are likely many factors behind the rise and then decline of rares, and and fall and rise of the price of resources. I don't claim to know each and every variable in the movement of prices, but something is driving these changes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you don't want to get into the nitty gritty, fine. But don't come here and try poo-poo valid theories with false statements.

[Duke_Freedom]

Except that we're comparing prices today to prices in October, when Skill Capes were released. Not one year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Depends on what you want to know. What it shows is that the current prices of those three items, raw lobs, yew logs and yew longs (s), are not that extremely high historically speaking. Besides, for all other items I did compare to October.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think I need to justify my own credibility and observations considering you don't either. I asked you if you actually wrote down the prices before october and considering you gave no answer on that, I'll assume that you did not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I am disagreeing with the overusage of the arguement "skill capes caused it all" as the cause of everything currently and I believe I have every right to voice that opinion whether you like it or not.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Nor am I claiming that it is natural fluctuation - I'm just pointing out that is a great possibilty too. You - and r2 who made a post on this which is why it suddenly a hype to mention it anywhere - are claiming way too quickly that skill capes causes it all, without any strong evidence backing you up.

[FooK-A-Ji]

 

...like exactly a year ago... exactly the same as a year ago too.

 

 

 

Except that we're comparing prices today to prices in October, when Skill Capes were released. Not one year ago.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While it may be convenient for your theory of "there's nothing to see here", creating a strawman argument to knock down is intellectually lazy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Only yew logs rose significantly since then and they are also 10% higher than a year ago - but it's rather questionable whether skill capes played any role in that at all. My bet would be that there's a lot less autoing now than back then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

It is probably of no use to continue arguing about the actual prices though since we'll continue to disagree anyway.

 

 

 

Let's get a little perspective on the authority with which you're making your claims.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I read on another thread recently that "Duke_Freedom" was banned some time ago, and you haven't been playing much/at all since then.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please clarify for us how long it's been since you've actually played Runescape, have gone looking for resources, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You're arrogantly dismissing everyone's claims as if your perspective is the be-all, end-all of Runescapian economics. But that statement I've highlighted above would actually indicate that you haven't been playing much at all.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Autoers are everywhere, they've moved into P2P killing dragons for bones and hides, mining pure essence, etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are more of them, and they're getting more and more sophisticated. So despite the increase of autoers, and the corresponding increase in supply of resources, the prices are going up.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Why has demand gone up so dramatically since October, in the face of this increased supply?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Duke Freedom: Oh no reason. Just a natural fluctation of the market. I know, because I used to play the game a while back and I know everything, and always will.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you were offering a competing theory, or had some other explanation than a pompous and lazy "poop happens", you'd have a bit more credibility.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

There are likely many factors behind the rise and then decline of rares, and and fall and rise of the price of resources. I don't claim to know each and every variable in the movement of prices, but something is driving these changes.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

If you don't want to get into the nitty gritty, fine. But don't come here and try poo-poo valid theories with false statements.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dude, Duke Freedom isnt banned, what u talking about human?

 

 

 

I've gotten it numerous times, also when I was banned for like 1ÃÆââ¬Å¡Ãâý years from this forum, that I was banned, had died, commited suicide etc etc.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

You come across as well-written, looking closer , the words you write are garbage.

 

 

 

Sit down and read what other more experienced merchants, in this case, the duke, are saying. Maybe you'll learn a little and we can talk.

[r2-pleasent]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taken this morning, Yews are still 350 ea.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Taken this morning. Raw Lobs are 250-275 ea.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'd say materials are quite high at the moment, and sure, you can say it's not due to Skill Capes, but we must all agree on one thing. The reason Raw Lobs rose last year was due to the "Cook X" option. The reason Yews rose before was the "Fletch x" option. But now, they have risen without any change to the actual skill. So I believe it is very plausible that Skill Capes played a role in these rises, because no other update has really affected skills in the past year.