Tip.It Times - 2nd January 2011

[Racheya]

Time for a new release of the: >>>Tip.It Times!<<<

 

I'd like to remind people of the rules pertaining to Times threads:

 

[hide=Read these rules before posting in this thread]

Rampant flame wars have taken control of virtually every week's times discussion topics. The following guidelines must be followed when posting on this topic. Posts that ignore these guidelines will be removed.

 

1. You are invited and welcome to express like or dislike on articles and a particular author's writing style. It is not acceptable, however, to flame or personally insult an author. Posts that aren't anything but an attack will be removed from the topic.

 

2. Spelling and grammar errors can be reported to Racheya by PMing her and they will be fixed promptly. It is not necessary to post them on the discussion topic.

 

3. Off topic posts that do not discuss the content of that week's articles will be removed. This is not the place to discuss the direction of the times, how much you love or hate the times, etc. Off topic posts will be removed.

 

By keeping within these guidelines, Times discussion topics will mean more for the Panel and Administration than just a place for flame wars. Flame wars do not provide any useful feedback to the Times, which is mainly what we're aiming for with these topics: feedback.

 

This policy is effective as of now, November 17, 2010. Any posts prior to the creation of this policy may or may not be removed according to the new guidelines.

[/hide]

 

When replying please make sure to clarify the article you are replying to! Thanks!

 

If you spot any typos or mistakes in the article then please PM them to me :)

 

We're also running low on Did You Know's so if you know something about Runescape which you think could apply as an interesting or useful fact then PM it to me.

 

Enjoy the articles!

[Diomedus]

I enjoyed both articles, nice work. Also First post yay!

 

I am being a little greedy, but i hope the phats crash enough for me to get one. Also, i am looking foreward to free trade, when the ge first came out, i got a lot of crafting levels, i hope i can benefit again

 

for the camelot one, i think romeo and juliet should have stayed. I like being able to look back on "unprofessional" stuff and see how far I've come. Jagex doesn't feel the same way. Oh well

[Nifflin]

For the economic roller coaster article, it seems a bit redundant. If someone was interested in it they would clearly know most of what you told them for themselves, if they don't then chances are they aren't interested and reading it won't benefit them. Even the second to last paragraph, the only actual analysis of the entire article, was shallow and obvious.

 

I love the Times but articles like that really annoy me to no end.

 

The second article is good, I agree that Camelot doesn't fit. Romeo and Juliet never threw me off and I like how they made a sort of parody of it at times, however the Camelot storyline is from a time when Runescape was different. That being said and though an update would be welcome, there are so many unfinished storylines in the game, I would prefer to see developer time go into finishing off all quests and areas (elves) rather then refurbishing existing content.

[Rsvote]

The economics article merely repeated random segments of what other people have said. Plenty have explained the crash (including myself on my blog, I have also explained the temporary recovery; http://rsvote.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/economic-ambulance-ride/), plenty of other people on this forum have offered identical (and also considerably better) economic predictions.

 

Oh well, it doesn't win in terms of originality, but it passes in terms of common sense.

 

Also, I'm not entirely sure if the writer of the camelot article realises how much of a "rip-off" the replacement quest for Romeo and Juliet is. It basically took a viking poem and switched a few cliche viking names about.

[jettrider]

Nice to see a new fictional though, I always enjoy them.

 

There were no fictionals this week...which one are you referring to?

 

For the second article: your logic is sound and I agree with your points, but I'd rather developer time was spent developing new content instead of rewriting content most people are done with at level 90. No matter how blatant it is, my vote would always be to move on.

[Nifflin]

Nice to see a new fictional though, I always enjoy them.

 

There were no fictionals this week...which one are you referring to?

 

For the second article: your logic is sound and I agree with your points, but I'd rather developer time was spent developing new content instead of rewriting content most people are done with at level 90. No matter how blatant it is, my vote would always be to move on.

 

I read the first article, saw the title of the second and quickly replied and went for some yummy tea. I'm reading it now, sorry for the miscommunication.

[Omnitec]

For the first article, I agree the point that Jagex are bringing out all these groundbreaking updates at once for a reason, and I think that's due to the Wilderness reform attracting old players back, these January updates should keep them interested ;).

 

I also agree that it's a good time to be a skiller right now. I'm a rocktail fisher, and their prices were rising due to the promise of new things to fight as well as PvP. Not so sure about rares being affected by PvP and Boss monsters though! Very well written and thought out, however <3: Good job

 

For the second article, I can only see an update to Camelot, not a major rehaul. For me, Romeo & Juliet was a one time quest that I didn't really remember, and never cared for after I'd completed it. Camelot however, is an entire are that is host to many quests and a source of skilling too with the nearby Seer's Village. This is a much more used gameplay area than Romeo & Juliet was used, and I think taking that away would be a bit odd since I couldn't see a reason for it. I enjoy the rip-off :P It makes the game more classically medieval, also Merlin is hawt <3: . I don't really see any evidence for Camelot to be replaced either!

[Grogthurk]

Master Smither always writes well.

 

This article is exactly why I refuse to dive into any money related skills for the time being. I don't want to risk what few millions I do have. Hell, if/when Free Trade+Wilderness do come out, you won't see me in the wilderness for any reason whatsoever, for at least a month.

 

Great read :thumbup:

[Hawks]

First one: Jagex is afraid people aren't happy/won't like Wildy and free trade, so they're chucking in extras to make them not as mad. Or of course it's getting as many pvp players back as possible.

 

Second one: I remember trying to figure out where on earth to get cadava berries for the quest, then trying to find the apothecary; it's a shame they took it out.

 

And of course...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfGpVcdqeS0

[Master_Smither]

First off, Thanks to everyone who posted such nice comments. I'm glad you enjoyed my first article is quite some time.

 

For the economic roller coaster article, it seems a bit redundant. If someone was interested in it they would clearly know most of what you told them for themselves, if they don't then chances are they aren't interested and reading it won't benefit them. Even the second to last paragraph, the only actual analysis of the entire article, was shallow and obvious.

 

I love the Times but articles like that really annoy me to no end.

 

The second article is good, I agree that Camelot doesn't fit. Romeo and Juliet never threw me off and I like how they made a sort of parody of it at times, however the Camelot storyline is from a time when Runescape was different. That being said and though an update would be welcome, there are so many unfinished storylines in the game, I would prefer to see developer time go into finishing off all quests and areas (elves) rather then refurbishing existing content.

 

Most players do not take the initiative to dive into the market and try to make heads or tails of what is going on. As humans, people enjoy to know what is going on around them and plenty of people enjoyed the article, despite your comment that it will not benefit them. The Times is read by a very broad range of players and to go into specifics is not what it is for, in my opinion as an author. If you wish to take a look at all I have to offer as far as the market goes, there is the 3rd Age/Spirit Shields thread in the General forum where I have, until the last 2 or 3 months been very active in and posted a lot of analysis that does go into specifics if you care to look back through the pages. Also, I have recently begun playing due to break and posted a few recent posts. I'm sorry if some articles annoy you, we can't make everyone happy.

 

The economics article merely repeated random segments of what other people have said. Plenty have explained the crash (including myself on my blog, I have also explained the temporary recovery; http://rsvote.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/economic-ambulance-ride/), plenty of other people on this forum have offered identical (and also considerably better) economic predictions.

 

Oh well, it doesn't win in terms of originality, but it passes in terms of common sense.

 

Also, I'm not entirely sure if the writer of the camelot article realises how much of a "rip-off" the replacement quest for Romeo and Juliet is. It basically took a viking poem and switched a few cliche viking names about.

 

 

Common sense to some. You overestimate the majority of RuneScape's population. Our readers aren't only forum members; in fact, I'd be willing to wager the majority of our readers are not active members of our forums. You're "summation," not sure what to call it, are what you analyzed from the situation and are close to what I have said. However, they're just a few bullet points and cannot be considered much more than that. Yes, others have stated many things and some might be better in your opinion, but from what I have seen and be involved in over the past 5 years of RuneScape mine are pretty decent. I'm not some randomer who just enjoys to write for epic lulz, I write to educate people and all of my articles are thought out and based upon facts and or experience. As far as merchanting goes, I have one and a half years of pre-GE merchanting and three years of GE merchanting, which includes: flipping, partyhats (all rares in general), 3rd age, new items, and bottom outs (never price manipulation as I am heavily against it). If you would please post the ones you think are better I am interested in reading them to further my knowledge on the market. No one knows everything, but I can surely try to learn as much as I possibly can from others and experiences.

[Nifflin]

@Master_Smither

 

Sorry, if I was a little harsh. I have enjoyed many of your articles in the past. I just don't like the generic summery of events then tiny analysis format for articles as I feel it is shallow. I don't know, I'm left wanting more at the end of them. I'm sorry.

 

I guess you're right in saying that the majority of readers aren't forum members and do not get as large an amount of analysis as we do. I for one have said before that I originally got drawn into this community over other fansites due to the times, and first came to the forum through the link at the bottom of the article. It just feels stale to read in the time what I've already read in a bunch of threads.

 

My point is more that for the type of people who care about current events and the market, they will already know what your article summarizes and will be looking for more analysis. I've seen what you've posted on that thread and actually read most of it (I used to lurk a lot), it's really great stuff. I don't know if I speak for others but that type of analysis rather then summarization makes for a much more pleasurable read.

[Rsvote]

First off, Thanks to everyone who posted such nice comments. I'm glad you enjoyed my first article is quite some time.

 

For the economic roller coaster article, it seems a bit redundant. If someone was interested in it they would clearly know most of what you told them for themselves, if they don't then chances are they aren't interested and reading it won't benefit them. Even the second to last paragraph, the only actual analysis of the entire article, was shallow and obvious.

 

I love the Times but articles like that really annoy me to no end.

 

The second article is good, I agree that Camelot doesn't fit. Romeo and Juliet never threw me off and I like how they made a sort of parody of it at times, however the Camelot storyline is from a time when Runescape was different. That being said and though an update would be welcome, there are so many unfinished storylines in the game, I would prefer to see developer time go into finishing off all quests and areas (elves) rather then refurbishing existing content.

 

Most players do not take the initiative to dive into the market and try to make heads or tails of what is going on. As humans, people enjoy to know what is going on around them and plenty of people enjoyed the article, despite your comment that it will not benefit them. The Times is read by a very broad range of players and to go into specifics is not what it is for, in my opinion as an author. If you wish to take a look at all I have to offer as far as the market goes, there is the 3rd Age/Spirit Shields thread in the General forum where I have, until the last 2 or 3 months been very active in and posted a lot of analysis that does go into specifics if you care to look back through the pages. Also, I have recently begun playing due to break and posted a few recent posts. I'm sorry if some articles annoy you, we can't make everyone happy.

 

The economics article merely repeated random segments of what other people have said. Plenty have explained the crash (including myself on my blog, I have also explained the temporary recovery; http://rsvote.wordpress.com/2011/01/02/economic-ambulance-ride/), plenty of other people on this forum have offered identical (and also considerably better) economic predictions.

 

Oh well, it doesn't win in terms of originality, but it passes in terms of common sense.

 

Also, I'm not entirely sure if the writer of the camelot article realises how much of a "rip-off" the replacement quest for Romeo and Juliet is. It basically took a viking poem and switched a few cliche viking names about.

 

 

Common sense to some. You overestimate the majority of RuneScape's population. Our readers aren't only forum members; in fact, I'd be willing to wager the majority of our readers are not active members of our forums. You're "summation," not sure what to call it, are what you analyzed from the situation and are close to what I have said. However, they're just a few bullet points and cannot be considered much more than that. Yes, others have stated many things and some might be better in your opinion, but from what I have seen and be involved in over the past 5 years of RuneScape mine are pretty decent. I'm not some randomer who just enjoys to write for epic lulz, I write to educate people and all of my articles are thought out and based upon facts and or experience. As far as merchanting goes, I have one and a half years of pre-GE merchanting and three years of GE merchanting, which includes: flipping, partyhats (all rares in general), 3rd age, new items, and bottom outs (never price manipulation as I am heavily against it). If you would please post the ones you think are better I am interested in reading them to further my knowledge on the market. No one knows everything, but I can surely try to learn as much as I possibly can from others and experiences.

 

I didn't say anything you said was wrong, nor did I pretend I offered anything more than bullet points; it was intended to be brief and "matter of fact". I don't think our two posts differed that much in content at all (if we include my earlier post about the crash as well; http://rsvote.wordpress.com/2010/12/28/argh-weve-crashed/, whereas you've covered the crash and the recovery in one) apart from me not offering anything on the new armour/godwars, and if we wish to make the comparison then in terms of crash and recovery, I agree that our highly similar offerings said all that needed to be for the majority of players.

 

I do not criticise the quality of this even though it's been said by countless others and thus isn't "original" (let's be honest, it wasn't exactly an innovative/highly shocking blog, was it? It was a pretty generic report). Perhaps I came across as being more harsh about the generic nature of it than I intended; I apologise. I also apologise for "random segments", that comes across as derogatory when that wasn't my intention either.

 

In terms of predicting what would happen, you didn't really offer the same level of analysis/elaboration; the single paragraph at the end was dissapointing. I'm pressed for time now, so I'll look for an example of someone who's given more at a later point (to be honest, though this may be egocentric, I think I gave more explanation in my bullet points than you did in your paragraph, though you did cover the new armour which as I said earlier I didn't bother with), but I'm quite certain you could say/explain more than what you chose to in this regard; I don't doubt your understanding, I actually think you could have said much more/explained better than you chose to.

 

P.S. I'm not exactly inexperienced economically speaking either, if you was trying to dismiss me by credentials, which I'm sure you wouldn't do as you're probably wise enough to appreciate the value of logical arguing, attacking the idea and not the person.

[Master_Smither]

@Nifflin: There is a fine line between me starting to go too in depth and boring the majority of the few thousand readers that we get, and doing just enough to make the majority happy. I'm not sure whether I found that line or I'm a bit under. My point being, I wouldn't expect a lot of analysis from the Times, but the thread, as you said, is full of nice exciting to read things.

 

@Rsvote: It even cross my mind that you didn't know what you were talking about. I read what your thoughts were and they didn't differ much if at all from mine, and knew you had to have some sense for the market. As I said to Nifflin, I can't really give too much analysis otherwise I will start to bore people. I mean, I could go on and on about the effects to the future, why this exactly happened to each item in specifics, but reading something close to 1,000 words is already a lot for some people. You happen to be a minority that wants to hear my boringness and that's fantastic; but, I refrain from doing so on the Times and keep that to where I know everyone will enjoy it, i.e., the 3rd age thread.

 

I didn't take offense to either of you, if I did what type of author would I be? I merely had to defend myself :)

 

Thanks a lot for the responses, everyone. I quite enjoy having some intelligent discussion :)

[04churchj]

@To the writer regarding economic rollercoaster:

 

Surely my thoughts on this would be that the rares market would not crash. Prior to 12th december 2007, the rares market was the equivalent of todays (real world) gold market (an investment that would never go in reverse, however reading James Howard Kunstlers blog that could call for discrepancy).

 

If jagex are to remove the restricted trade and opening up a free market again, the rares would seem an investment forcing the prices up, and with the release of the new boss drops probably attractive extremely high prices would bolster the rares even further. Greater cash flow with the best armour going to the highest bidder would start a frenzy as the rich scramble to get hold of the new releases. Another reason why I somewhat disagree with your article (but I do respect that this is your opinion and you have you own share of thoughts to express), is that looking at the price of the blue partyhat has been increasing and the same rate, even after the mention of the possible reinstatement of free trade and the wilderness. Though of course this may not be an accurate reflection on whats really going on (another fault of the grand exchange of which i despise so much!).

 

On skillers; keep stocking up, your definatly in an advantageous position to make a lot of money on these 2 major updates. Yet don't be caught at the mercy of the bottom rung, the players who collect the raw materials possibly the backbone of the whole situation and these too can use the high demand for basic materials to there advantage. This infact could lead to mid-level items raising in price with the amount of unskilled players selling basic supplies for a good profit, on the other hand this is just speculation and I could be completely wrong.

 

On conclusion i did enjoy reading your article :thumbsup:

[Rsvote]

@To the writer regarding economic rollercoaster:

 

Surely my thoughts on this would be that the rares market would not crash. Prior to 12th december 2007, the rares market was the equivalent of todays (real world) gold market (an investment that would never go in reverse, however reading James Howard Kunstlers blog that could call for discrepancy).

 

If jagex are to remove the restricted trade and opening up a free market again, the rares would seem an investment forcing the prices up, and with the release of the new boss drops probably attractive extremely high prices would bolster the rares even further. Greater cash flow with the best armour going to the highest bidder would start a frenzy as the rich scramble to get hold of the new releases. Another reason why I somewhat disagree with your article (but I do respect that this is your opinion and you have you own share of thoughts to express), is that looking at the price of the blue partyhat has been increasing and the same rate, even after the mention of the possible reinstatement of free trade and the wilderness. Though of course this may not be an accurate reflection on whats really going on (another fault of the grand exchange of which i despise so much!).

 

On skillers; keep stocking up, your definatly in an advantageous position to make a lot of money on these 2 major updates. Yet don't be caught at the mercy of the bottom rung, the players who collect the raw materials possibly the backbone of the whole situation and these too can use the high demand for basic materials to there advantage. This infact could lead to mid-level items raising in price with the amount of unskilled players selling basic supplies for a good profit, on the other hand this is just speculation and I could be completely wrong.

 

On conclusion i did enjoy reading your article :thumbsup:

 

You greatly misunderstand the relation between the "current" rares market and the rares market which will come with free trade. What will cause the partyhat crash isn't an organic factor of a single market, it's the conversion from one market to another.

 

Firstly, before I explain two fundamental reasons for the difference between the current rare scenario and the one which free trade will bring, I'd like to point out the GE is so far behind the "street value" that these recent changes haven't affected the demand/value in sniping partyhats (so few of which are sold on the GE it's not funny, before anyone gets the wrong idea; the likelihood of a successful snipe is VERY low) so your observation via the GE is basically flawed from the start.

 

Secondly, the GE's inability to keep up with rare prices is one of the factors which has contributed to their prices hyperinflating at a faster than rate than previously, as people have needed to use "junK" to sell their rares, and due to this people have collected partyhats specifically to clear out junk, creating a new use (junk clearers) for partyhats in themselves. This use for partyhats/other rares is not going to be valid anymore, and to clear out remaining junk piles phats will be panic sold over the comming weeks or dumped after free trade is instated, introducing more into circulation. So this basically means a large pocket of demand within the market will be eliminated, coupled with the items in question been more widely dispersed throughout the market.

 

Thirdly, another factor which contributed to rare inflation is the removal of free trade in the first place. If the original changes are reversed then a lot of old players will come back back, namely stakers and merchants who'll be comming back with enough rares to double the current stock (this is my personal prediction, some thing I'm exaggerating a bit but whatever; it's indisputable that lots of D/Ced items will be returning). This supply increase will lead to rare prices falling, as there will be more seller competition.

[04churchj]

 

You greatly misunderstand the relation between the "current" rares market and the rares market which will come with free trade. What will cause the partyhat crash isn't an organic factor of a single market, it's the conversion from one market to another.

 

Firstly, before I explain two fundamental reasons for the difference between the current rare scenario and the one which free trade will bring, I'd like to point out the GE is so far behind the "street value" that these recent changes haven't affected the demand/value in sniping partyhats (so few of which are sold on the GE it's not funny, before anyone gets the wrong idea; the likelihood of a successful snipe is VERY low) so your observation via the GE is basically flawed from the start.

 

Secondly, the GE's inability to keep up with rare prices is one of the factors which has contributed to their prices hyperinflating at a faster than rate than previously, as people have needed to use "junK" to sell their rares, and due to this people have collected partyhats specifically to clear out junk, creating a new use (junk clearers) for partyhats in themselves. This use for partyhats/other rares is not going to be valid anymore, and to clear out remaining junk piles phats will be panic sold over the comming weeks or dumped after free trade is instated, introducing more into circulation. So this basically means a large pocket of demand within the market will be eliminated, coupled with the items in question been more widely dispersed throughout the market.

 

Thirdly, another factor which contributed to rare inflation is the removal of free trade in the first place. If the original changes are reversed then a lot of old players will come back back, namely stakers and merchants who'll be comming back with enough rares to double the current stock (this is my personal prediction, some thing I'm exaggerating a bit but whatever; it's indisputable that lots of D/Ced items will be returning). This supply increase will lead to rare prices falling, as there will be more seller competition.

 

 

You could be well true on this matter, but you still are using the idea of what partyhats have become in this market post- december 2007, more of a trading tool rather than a desired object which it was prior to december 2007. When the market returns to a free market, the partyhat could change its role back to what it used to be, and hence this is why I think it will not crash along with the release of the new godwars equipment.

 

Even if there is a return of players with rares I am highly doubtful this will have any affect in the price of rares, because firstly when they were bought post-dec 2007 they were bought as an investment or desired object (to show players wealth), and will probably not be sold and any that are may not cause any surplus in supply. Even during the period between the announcement of the removal of free trade and its actual removal there was still oppotunities for players to sell off/give away or trade to their other accounts.

 

Id also like to reitterate my point that I did clearly state in my first response that the GE may not be an accurate reflection in how the market is reaction regarding to partyhats.

[Rsvote]

 

You greatly misunderstand the relation between the "current" rares market and the rares market which will come with free trade. What will cause the partyhat crash isn't an organic factor of a single market, it's the conversion from one market to another.

 

Firstly, before I explain two fundamental reasons for the difference between the current rare scenario and the one which free trade will bring, I'd like to point out the GE is so far behind the "street value" that these recent changes haven't affected the demand/value in sniping partyhats (so few of which are sold on the GE it's not funny, before anyone gets the wrong idea; the likelihood of a successful snipe is VERY low) so your observation via the GE is basically flawed from the start.

 

Secondly, the GE's inability to keep up with rare prices is one of the factors which has contributed to their prices hyperinflating at a faster than rate than previously, as people have needed to use "junK" to sell their rares, and due to this people have collected partyhats specifically to clear out junk, creating a new use (junk clearers) for partyhats in themselves. This use for partyhats/other rares is not going to be valid anymore, and to clear out remaining junk piles phats will be panic sold over the comming weeks or dumped after free trade is instated, introducing more into circulation. So this basically means a large pocket of demand within the market will be eliminated, coupled with the items in question been more widely dispersed throughout the market.

 

Thirdly, another factor which contributed to rare inflation is the removal of free trade in the first place. If the original changes are reversed then a lot of old players will come back back, namely stakers and merchants who'll be comming back with enough rares to double the current stock (this is my personal prediction, some thing I'm exaggerating a bit but whatever; it's indisputable that lots of D/Ced items will be returning). This supply increase will lead to rare prices falling, as there will be more seller competition.

 

 

You could be well true on this matter, but you still are using the idea of what partyhats have become in this market post- december 2007, more of a trading tool rather than a desired object which it was prior to december 2007. When the market returns to a free market, the partyhat could change its role back to what it used to be, and hence this is why I think it will not crash along with the release of the new godwars equipment.

 

Even if there is a return of players with rares I am highly doubtful this will have any affect in the price of rares, because firstly when they were bought post-dec 2007 they were bought as an investment or desired object (to show players wealth), and will probably not be sold and any that are may not cause any surplus in supply. Even during the period between the announcement of the removal of free trade and its actual removal there was still oppotunities for players to sell off/give away or trade to their other accounts.

 

Id also like to reitterate my point that I did clearly state in my first response that the GE may not be an accurate reflection in how the market is reaction regarding to partyhats.

 

No, I did not state that the partyhat's only use was a trade facilitator, I stated that this use would be made redundant; not that this was the partyhat's only use. Partyhats are just as desired as before as a fashion item/etc, yet their role as a trade facilitator has pushed it well beyond the market's organic inflation if we were still in free trade, so they will crash to a level which is more in sync (no, not to previous prices before GE, before anyone comes to this rather rusty conclusion) with the demand in the new market scenario, which will lack a large pocket the current scenario has created.

 

You're generalising seller behaviour in a rather silly way. I'm not talking to fellow economists on the most part and I can't be bothered to give in depth explanations of this, so I'll state it very simply; if players were quitting they might not have been very fussed about selling their rares (it would have been hassle for no actual gain) but as they're returning, there's many potential reasons they might well choose to sell. Plus, as I can't resist but state this atleast briefly; the "knowledge" that there are more rares out there due to players returning will affect buyer and seller behaviour.

 

I know you did, yet you still used it as a tool to measure their descent, which considering you've stated it's own incompetance is pretty silly.