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Squeal of Fortune Wheel Prediction/Timing Discussion


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#1
Ren
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Alright, it's probably hideous to see a post regarding research for any logical reasoning for the "Wheel of Squeal", as I like to call it, but please, bear with me until we can definitively say this is a completely random unpossible-to-predict-or-time sort of thing.

Posted Image

Part 1: The debate.
---------------------------------------------------------
Many people say that your item is chosen for you as soon as you hit the button: Of course it is. It's all luck and possibly timing. We'll see once we get enough information.

Many people say that your item is chosen before you even go to spin or hit the button: That's very possible, but we do not know for sure.

Here is the Quick-find Code to the Wheel's Jagex FAQ thread on RSOF regarding most questions involved: Quick find code: 15-16-565-63596265

Quote from that regarding spinning:

Am I missing out on getting the ultra rare prizes just because I lagged/ misclicked?

Jagex: Rest assured that you'll never lose out on a prize because you clicked at the wrong time or you experienced lag. The best way to maximise your chance to win is to use your available spins every day, so lady luck has as many chances as possible to shower you with favour.

The bolded out text is the important part to remember. They state that you'll never lose out on a prize, not necessarily the one you were going for, because you clicked at the wrong time or experienced lag.

This is semi-hard to interpret. Basically you can choose to read it as "Yes! Timing DOES factor into your reward!", but you can also understand that it may mean they actually are referring to whatever prize you were aiming for.

In all cases, it seems to me that this is pointing more to the side of timing being a large factor. Before we delve deeper into that,...

Part 2: The Information.
---------------------------------------------------------
As far as I can see, there are specific randomizers that activate, possibly even randomly (I haven't recorded enough or at all on some to definitively).

Here are some of the ones I noticed, though one or two may not exist because they could be 'lag' or some type of tech malfunction:

--After clicking, the wheel flashes off and on. { I do not know if this is my computer or what, so I need people to submit info on this so I know I'm not alone. }

--Wheel will sometimes spin, and then skip one to three slots (possibly more) to randomize better after clicking to stop. { Again, do not know definitively if this is a glitch occuring or not, or if it's visual. }

--Wheel spin will go past super-rare/rare/uncommon items faster than commons/uncommons/rares. { This is the most reliant and very possible scenario, I am almost 100% sure it happens. }

--As the wheel is spinning before you click to stop, you can sit there and watch it slow down and speed up over time.

--As the wheel is spinning before you click to stop, you can see it sometimes entirely skip over items.

--Every 6/8/10/11/13 rotations, the wheel flashes (and I believe resets) to a random reward point or something like that. Need to keep watching to find out what it does exactly, may be more rotations than those available for a "reset" or flash.

--The wheel possibly skips to the left 1-3 item slots every rotation. Exact amount and how often if not 100% chance of happening per spin are unknown at this time.

--I have consistently tried aiming perfectly for the best item on my wheel, and would end up with the worst reward possible. 8 times+ today, let alone total, have I done this. I will assume for now that I am making progress, and it's possible that I am either accidentally causing myself to get bad rewards, or if you try to get a good reward and are close, you will get a bad one instead. I also tried to change my timing a few times and ended up with the best uncommon rather than the worst reward possible. I will also state that I timed it 7 times in a row to hit item slot 10.

--Free-Play spins seem to rotate faster than Members spins. This would affect the outcome by making it much more difficult to hit super-rare, rare, and uncommon item slots if the wheel does indeed spin faster over them than more common item slots. This could just be visual to cause timing on Free-Play spins to be harder than Members.


I will update more as I see them or they are submitted enough.
------SIDE NOTES------
1): If you spin on a Free-Play account and get a Divine spirit shield (as an example), you do NOT have to immediately subscribe to claim it, and shouldn't discard the item if you plan on eventually claiming it. As far as I know, you may let a reward sit there and cannot spin again until it is discarded or claimed. So keep trying spins on your newbies or pures or whatever account, maybe you'll be enticed to pay for membership one day :).

2): Something I completely overlooked but just saw based on screenshots. Item locations of rarity can change. If you look at my example of item slots #1-13 picture, item slot #3 is a rare item, but on my "Example of a good submission" post, you can clearly see a rare slot/Lucky Zamorak Godsword as item slot #2.

Part 3: Submitting information and data.
---------------------------------------------------------
Alright, here's the important stuff. I would like everyone and anyone to follow these guidelines and post some information regarding each spin, so we can define how likely it is to hit certain items, and to help with timing better.

There are always 13 slots for items, here is the layout of the items:
Posted Image
(#1-13, left to right in numerical order for the form)

Do NOT hesitate to post bad spins, ALL DATA IS HELPFUL.

Here's the submission form FOR EACH SPIN:



I know this is going to be difficult to be accurate on specifics of how your spins went, but just try to be precise as possible.

Describe what happened in your spin with: Flashes, jumps, slowing down or spinning over super-rare/rare/uncommon/common slots quickly, skipping over item slots as it was about to stop, etc.
State anything else that you saw might have or did happen.

Screenshots of rewards and your wheel before you stop the spin is VERY helpful. Not to mention good for bragging :thumbsup: ..
http://www.photobucket.com/ is a free-to-use website for uploading pictures (must sign up, can upload multiple pictures at once) in case you need a website. Please crop out everything but the Runescape screen. Use image tags or the image URL on your post.

Your data is almost completely null or invalid until it is repeatedly posted, possibly by numerous people in this topic before it's approved or assumed to be possible or true. This is to prevent liars, timewasters, trolling, etc.

Part 4: Rewards list.
---------------------------------------------------------
List of possible rewards in Alphabetical order:
WILL UPDATE THIS LATER ONCE WE GET A LIST GOING.



Part 5: Rates for items/item slot #'s.
---------------------------------------------------------
WILL UPDATE THIS LATER ON WHEN WE HAVE INFORMATION.


-----------------------UPDATES----------------------
There WILL be a tips/tricks part later on, once we see enough consistency in spins to say that X technique will help you land on X item(s).
I will edit rewards as they come to me/as I see them.
PLEASE post information you found on RSOF regarding possible rewards, or anywhere else, so I can get a reward list up and running faster.
Please post typos, corrections, etc, so I can fix the topic ASAP.
Please comment on my topic also, saying where it may need improvement and such, or what areas are great.
--------------------------------------------------------


So good luck on your spins, try to be accurate and honest as possible when submitting information. Just remember, this is a thread to help you win those super-rare unbuyables and the highest-value rewards (Divine/Elysian/10M gp cash, Huge Lamps, etc). Even bad spin data is helpful!

553VriC.png?1


#2
Ren
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Example of a good submission:

Free-Play or Members Squeal spin?: Free-Play
Item slot # aimed for: Item slot 4
Number of estimated rotations after clicking stop (from where you assume you tried to stop): 3.7 rotations, or so.
Number of item slots passed from the item slot you stopped on, to the one you landed on (optional): 33, or so.
Estimated item slot # you attempted to stop spinning on: Item slot 7
What item slot # you landed on: Item slot 10
What reward did you get?: 50GP
What exactly happened before you clicked to stop?: It seemed to skip over a few slots once or twice, I waited about 20 seconds before clicking stop.
What exactly happened after you clicked to stop?: It began to slow, no flashes, but I didn't watch carefully enough for anything abnormal.
What exactly happened as it was about to stop?: It slowed down, then quickly skipped over the item slot two before my reward, and just that slot.
What rewards do you know exist on the wheel? (exact names please, optional): Divine, Elysian, Spectral, Arcane, Blessed spirit shields, Small to Huge lamps, for any and every skill. Med lamps and over are members-only. Members skill lamps are members-only.
Wheel image submission(s) (pre-spin reward and rewards, optional):
http://i1173.photobu...123/spinpre.png
http://i1173.photobu.../spinreward.png

Posted Image
Posted Image

----------------------------------------

I prefer to click stop about 3-6 slots before my desired item, because I assumed that it skips over a few items and/or goes past super-rare/rare/uncommon items faster than common/uncommon/rare items. That is why I clicked stop on item slot 4, rather than item slot 7.

Check the post below or my first post for newer details on spins. This is semi-old.
---------------------------------------

Reserved for top reward submissions (with pictures), possibly more post room, larger lists, Etc.

Thank you.

553VriC.png?1


#3
Ren
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Possible known factors for where you will land on the wheel, to help with prediction:

-Number of rotations

-Location you clicked to stop on.

-Location of your desired reward (not sure if rarity affects landing or spin speed yet).

-If you see a flash, re-count rotations and wait again (not sure if anyone else regularly sees flashes or resets).


My technique for:
Item slot 2/"Rare" rating
------------------
Wait 7 to 9 rotations, stick with one amount of rotations if you are consistently aiming for item slot 2 during spins. RECOUNT ROTATIONS IF IT FLASHES
Click stop, aiming 5 to 7 slots before/to the left (go all the way back to the right if you need to and go left from there) of item slot 2.

Let me know where you began spinning, how many rotations and where it landed exactly. This is a slightly different and reverse method of the one I used to get 7-in-a-row on item slot 10.

If you are confused and need a screenshot example of how to count item slots and stuff, detail your post with specifics and I'll try to help you out.

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#4
Ren
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Feedback on this thread is great guys, thanks. Just need more submissions or information! If you have any info that you'd like to tell me, just post it. The form is just a way for me to get more precise details.

553VriC.png?1


#5
Octarine
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Hi uno dos tres:

"Did anyone else observe that the button to stop the flashing light has a 10 second delay, therefore defeating its purpose... Or is that intentional, meaning you cannot have any effect on the reward you'll receive?"


The outcome is totally randomised - the player's action (timing) does not affect the reward that comes out. The animation is not actually connected to the outcome, it's just fun to watch Yelp get punched in the face.

-JH


QFC: 15-16-697-63596239 (Page 45)

Edited by Octarine19, 06 March 2012 - 02:26 PM.

Blog of DG, Bossing (mostly Glacors) and stuff - Runetrack

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#6
Ren
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Exact page #, please Octarine?

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#7
Octarine
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Was trying to avoid that :P took that from the update thread on tif - didn't have a page reference. I'll have a look through the thread on the RS site now and try find it. Can't be that fair into it you'd think

Page 45.

Edited by Octarine19, 06 March 2012 - 02:19 PM.

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#8
Ren
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There's 203 pages in that thing..

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#9
Powerfrog
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The first mod quote is clearly stating that time is NOT an issue.

You will not miss out on a prize (IE, the one you were going for) because of a time related incident.
"The best way to maximise your chance to win is to use your available spins every day, so lady luck has as many chances as possible to shower you with favour."
Also means that the only variable is luck and the player has no control over the results.

I'm not saying that it IS luck based, I'm just saying that the mod said it was and you'd have to be veeery reaching to interpret it in any other way. Mods are wrong/lie all the time, though.


I highly doubt you actually can time it and game the system, but I'm still very interested in the results, mostly just for rates on the rares. The major problem i see with this thread is that many will not submit their 50gp, but as soon as they get a lucky divine they'll find this thread and post it without the other 500 spins they failed at, screwing up the results. (That, and blatant lies.)

Until one of you actually gets at least 2 rares in a short period of time, I'm not going to believe your methods.

CNqWHdA.jpg


#10
Ren
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Of course, Power, that's why we need massive submissions. As for what Octarine posted, thanks. And I'm asking specific details from the Jmod that posted that. I don't expect a reply but I don't like the fact that I can tell or see randomizations in the wheel, and still can repeat my landings. It's funky looking if it's truly 100% random.

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#11
Ren
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Think what you like, I prefer to believe (atm, not gonna lie and say that it is worth trying to do 24/7) that it's possible to time. But I would rather not sit in the dark and wonder, it makes me uncomfortable not knowing :P. Even if it's debunked I am ok with that, and please, nobody think otherwise.

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#12
Star.
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What rewards do you know exist on the wheel? (exact names please, optional):

This question seems kinda redundant, how does it help?

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☢ CAUTION ☢ CAUTION ☢ CAUTION ☢ CAUTION ☢


#13
Ren
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What rewards do you know exist on the wheel? (exact names please, optional):

This question seems kinda redundant, how does it help?

Helps define rarity of specific items in case you decide to hunt for items. There's other shit to do with it, but it's just to get a separate thread going eventually if I get this fixed up enough... Atm too tired to even bother concentrating on that question so I'll answer tomorrow if I can.

On a side note...
Saw rotation, saw it skip over 1 item slot (uncommon, slot 9), clicked stop for w\e reason, hovered mouse over assuming it'd land there. It did.

Try it.

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#14
Doodsalot270
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Example of a good submission:

Free-Play or Members Squeal spin?: Free-Play
Item slot # aimed for: Item slot 4
Number of estimated rotations after clicking stop (from where you assume you tried to stop): 3.7 rotations, or so.
Number of item slots passed from the item slot you stopped on, to the one you landed on (optional): 33, or so.
Estimated item slot # you attempted to stop spinning on: Item slot 7
What item slot # you landed on: Item slot 10
What exactly happened before you clicked to stop?: It seemed to skip over a few slots once or twice, I waited about 20 seconds before clicking stop.
What exactly happened as it was about to stop?: It slowed down, then quickly skipped over the item slot two before my reward, and just that slot.
http://i1173.photobu...123/spinpre.png
Posted Image


I just had an idea based on your pictures and ideas. noticing what you said about the time tables of how many estimated spins it made before you clicked to stop, notice that it landed 3 slots away from when you clicked, you estimated that it made 3 full rotations. I believe that somebody with a good computer and recording software may be able to slow down the recording of a SOF attempt, and may be able to math out the times tables. you guessed about 33 item slots were passed after clicking to stop, 3.7 rotations pre-click, and it landed 3 slots from where you had clicked or attempted to land. this does not look like a randomized coding at all to me.

#15
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Instead of counting rotations, we need to find exact times, I use exactly 7 secs to get close but we need to take videos of wheel in action, slow them down to 1/10 or even 1/100 per sec see how long after or before the wheel stops on 200m, how often and try using fractions of seconds, use a program like free auto mouse clicker 3 and a screen cam. Remember to exit wheel after collecting every reward. This could be much easier than just guessing. I think the best bets would be 6.4-6.9 seconds and going up 50/100 secs every time. Maybe even 10/100 if you guys are dedicated.

#16
skullreaper
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But since it is random all we need is the closest fraction of a second to give people the best bet of winning.

#17
Jonanananas
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I find it cool that people are putting their time into research, but...considering Jmods have said already that timing has no influence, and that it would make sense to code it like that and not in a different way, is this really worth the time?

#18
IridiumBunny
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Many people say that your item is chosen before you even go to spin or hit the button: That's very possible, but we do not know for sure.


I save my earned spins for the promotions they do. On the Alchemists amulet weekend, I used my earned spins collected earlier in the week and fragment pieces were an option (and won from two of them). Obviously if I had spun earlier in the week when I had obtained these tickets, I could not have received these rewards, which implies that your prize is not determined prior to opening the spin interface.

However, if you click to open the interface, close it, and reopen, the reward options are the same, so it is still possible that the prize for a single spin is determined prior to hitting the button once the interface is opened.



(Sorry if I misinterpreted, 'before you go to spin' sounds to me like 'before you open the spin interface' but I realise it might not be meant that way).

#19
euphrates
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Hello, i might have found a pattern in this game

Currently been playing 100 spins with clicking within 1sec after starting the game. this usually makes the spin stop at the last 5 item slots. with around 90% hit rate on those.

These 100 spins have generated 14 rares from the 11th and 12th slots, wich i find is a good win rate. Since the slots change poss and the wheel sometimes jump over slots atleast.

Hope you can manage something out of this info, not sure if its luck or something but i believe it is a pattern atleast

#20
Mercifull
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100 is wayyyyyyyy too small a sample. Hundreds of thousands of people spin every day and noone has been able to prove anything other than complete random

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