Punitive_D

Perhaps dragon bones warrant their own thread? This thread has strayed away from its original point.

I've been flipping halloween masks since I dumped my santas. They're quite stable. Always buyable and always sellable. A little hard to buy at mid, but if you keep an offer in for all three at mid, you'll probably get one within a day. Can't sell for max, but easily sellable above mid. So they're slowly but surely moving up in price. I can confirm this 100% i also have been flipping them, buying 100k above mid and selling for 700-1m above mid. Plus i am also holding about 12 red masks so i get 5-10m every second or third day with the slow rises, not bad for f2p and 10 mins a day tops. One small edit to what I posted before. I just sold a red for max, so I guess they sometimes can be sold for max. I also have been holding several hundred mil worth of reds as I have thought them the best long-term investment and least risky of the three.

We already did break out Dr Nabanik (Azzanadra) in Desert Treasure as he's confined to 4 Diamonds, that's why he couldnt contact Zaros earlier, but we already broke him out once killed the four diamond carriers, restored his power at the pyramid, which he was a ghost he rewarded use with ancient magicks, now curse prayers I'll help him anyday! But why rescue him again? he went under that name and form to hide himself he's a Mahjarrat afterall, if he went around with Azzanadra signposted Zammy/Sara followered would do the same again I thought Libs was talking about the assassin. I also found it a bit odd that he would be hanging out just above ground. On the other hand, all that dialogue about being a master thief and all would have been a little silly if we had had to rescue him/her. I thought it was a simple way to keep that character in the line. I assume the assassin will appear again in a future quest.

I've been flipping halloween masks since I dumped my santas. They're quite stable. Always buyable and always sellable. A little hard to buy at mid, but if you keep an offer in for all three at mid, you'll probably get one within a day. Can't sell for max, but easily sellable above mid. So they're slowly but surely moving up in price.

It would have seemed a lot longer if you had tried it without a guide.

You're the exception -- I've met many gracious, thankful Brits.

Seems to me that she's sizing up high level slayer monsters for some reason. I can imagine two reasons. One I really like. The other I think is more likely. First, the idea that I really like. Perhaps she's going to use her knowledge of and skill with slayer monsters to employ them in an army that she will lead to avenge her brother? I think this would be a cool part of a large quest. Embedded within this part of the quest could be the small slayer update we've been promised. The idea that I think more likely is that she is sizing them up for a new high level slayer area, perhaps a slayer guild. My guess is that this would be a special enclave limited to players who are on task. No campers allowed. Perhaps someone can start generating a list of places where she's been seen?

I wonder why you think Fight Caves will be easier? Prayer-switching is the only hard thing now, and that doesn't change, does it? The demand for d bones is permanently enhanced. Tons of people are like me (70 prayer). Now all of us will be pushing much higher. On the other hand, d bones are quite easy to get. As the price goes up, many of the 76k newbs might switch to dragon hunting. Supply will increase. Only a guess on my part, but I'd expect the new norm for d bones to be about 4k.

Sorry for the double post -- I messed up somehow. I meant to say that the quoted poster provides a pretty good analysis. Here's one factor to consider. I'm not sure that high end drops ever will reach an equilibrium if the present inflation is driven by 76k, as most suggest. You are right that as the price of the high end drops rises, this will lure some 76kers away from the trick, thus slowing inflation and increasing the supply of the drops and stabilizing their prices. But not every 76ker can do GWD or tormented demons. That's why the trick has been such an extreme driver of inflation -- every newb can (and will and does) do it. These newbs cannot be lured to GWD because they can't do GWD. So we may be in a permanent inflationary cycle here where the newbs just keep driving prices up.

Interesting query. I have my own theory. I'd say 2 main reasons they're starting to slope: 1. More and more people are hunting them due to: a. More and more people doing WGS. b. Hunting straight for Dclaws is (was, or now, similar) more profitable than GWD. 2. Most items, are, in fact, starting to reach an equilibrium with inflation. Some are starting to get hit before others. Gear will, in fact, reach a point and start falling or stabilize. 76king aside or not, pked drops are static in values. Because of rising gear, gear is dynamic in value. For example, let's look at this logically: If arma hilt reached 1 bil (which it won't), the amount of people that will hunt for it will greatly increase, and the people who 76ked or pk for money will come to a halt. Granted, regular pking still actually adds gp to the game, but I believe that gp will pump up rare prices ultimately, not gear. A lot of high-end raws have dropped 5-10 percent within the past week. Raws are going to fall before GWD because of the sheer amount of people gathering raws compared to MHers. Also, claws are getting hit before GWD items because of 1. I could be wrong, but this is how I see it, and either a statue nerf or a money sink needs to enter the game so rares don't get ridiculous. Sorry for venturing off the subject :ugeek:

You can calculate the value of a bought out item. Value = Street price - cost of junk. Cost of junk generally can be figured as a percentage. For example, the shop price of water-filled vials is 10. The GE price is 63. So you can value the junk you need to complete a trade by dividing by 6.3. So if the street price of the pumpkin really is 100M, then the true value is 100M less the value of the junk necessary to complete the trade. Since the GE price of a pumpkin is 35.8M, it will take 64.2M junk to complete the trade. It will cost roughly 10M to get that much junk (a little more actually). So the true value of a pumpkin is a little less than 90M (the 100M cash you can get for the pumpkin less the 10M that you would need to spend on junk to complete the trade).

Flipping is done over mid and under mid. It just depends on where the market is at the moment. So sometimes flipping pushes the price up a little, and sometimes it pushes it down a little. Sometimes it's doesn't push the price at all if you buy under mid and sell over mid. In any event, demand drives the price. This is the difference between flipping and price manipulation. In the aggregate, flipping doesn't artificially affect prices. That's because you make money on the flip without regard to price change. In fact, sometimes you have to be careful NOT to affect the price. For example, if I'm buying under mid and selling at mid (which I do a lot), I can end up driving the price down and depreciating my own stock. (No big deal since I have only a few, and I generally still can sell at or over where I bought.) Truth is, flippers stabilize prices. If you don't know what you're talking about, please learn something before posting.

They are also 10 times cheaper, almost. Which is why he asked if there were 10x as many. Because they are 10x cheeper they would have to buy 10x as many. This was taken from Duke Freedom's Article on rare items from then Tipit Times Archive. The numbers are from 2006, but the same ratios should exist as not too many rares 'leave' the game. 500 party hats sets 2500 mask sets 15000 santa hats 200 crackers 200 half wines 1250 disks 2000 pumpkins 3500 easter eggs These numbers suggest to me that it would be hard for santas and masks to absorb a major partyhat dump. At this point, I think that a major partyhat dump is practicable only with an accompanying money sink.

Sorry for the double post, but here's a possible flaw -- are then ten times as many santas as partyhats?

Well they're going through the roof right now. Don't know whether I've ever seen them this high.

Thanks. Hmmm historically (from what I recall, I could be wrong) Santas rise right before Christmas and then fall afterwards. Sometimes. Now that everybody thinks about this, it doesn't always come true. Santas have risen a lot lately. I've been gradually "selling into the rally." They might go up more before Christmas, but I decided to cash in a little early. Just have a few more left.

Tru dat. I think edibles will crash harder than anything else in the near term. Partyhats will crash, but at least there's a natural demand for them because they're wearable. There is very little natural demand for the edibles. Some poor saps are going to lose their shirts on them.

Sounds absolutely stupid, opening a game after 4 years to everyone and letting items being tranferred from it. Dude, chill. I don't think he was seriously suggesting that -- just a joke.

purple is basically max now. i saw a good merch sell a yellow for egg + 10m junk and cash. people are also downgrading yellows to green+cash (vice versa) which is hilarious. red is probably under 2 eggs (depends on the merch) and white/blue is still going. i think by the time november passes, we'll all be seeing phats going down or ATLEAST buyable again. minor wearables seems to be going up along with edibles and disk. mint cakes are at the rise...3-5m per cake...yikes. they're the next opulent tables. Late last night/early this morning there was a guy on W2 offering a yellow and two santas for one easter. He was getting no takers. Anyone bought any partyhats in the GE this week (other than right after price move)? Any for less than max yet? Screenies?

Depends how you define "crash" -- seems to me that it's a lot easier to buy partyhats on the street today than it was last week. Plus I saw multiple partyhats move up simultaneously on GE today, which suggests to me that more people are selling them for cash.

This is a good point, but it wouldn't necessarily take a new skill to cause the crash. A big new tradeable weapon could do it. Anything that would cost a lot of money could do it. In fact, even a revision to an existing skill could do it. For example, what if Jagex released some beastly new high-level prayers? Players would start scrambling to buy dragon bones, which would skyrocket in value. Even this could trigger a dumping of partyhats. The higher the hats go, the smaller the stimulus that will be required to set off the crash. They become more and more unstable as they climb higher and higher.

Partyhats all just moved up at the same time. Does that mean that they're buyable in the GE now?

I'm judging from the posts that they didn't "decorate" Draynor and Rimmington like they did for the event last year? Too bad -- I was hoping the special decorations would be an annual seasonal event. Loved the spooky look of those villages.

The problem with your equating coinshare with 76k is this -- boss hunting in gwd can't be done by everyone, at least no effectively. So you don't have newbs making "insane amounts of money." In fact, anyone who makes big money boss hunting on coinshare can make big money in a number of different ways. Anyone can 76k, and that's why it brings so much more money into the game.

The first million's the hardest. I got mine from a treasure trail. But if you put your money to work (don't keep it in cash or other crashing assets) and keep playing, eventually the millions roll in. Btw, at your level, you could make 1M fairly easily by killing green drags. But if you'd rather make more money in the long run (and still enjoy the game), I have one word for you: "slayer."