Duke_Freedom

While I understand your point, kelem ryu, price manipulation means that you are consciously trying to change prices to your advantage, oftenly based on rumors or lies. That's something totally different then giving your opinion with actual facts and reasons backing it up. Furthermore I do not believe this article had that much influence on the market at all, masks were already working towards the peak they made before the article came out. What people forget is that people can make tons of cash more then they used to be able to a year or two ago. Merchants, good stakers and runecrafters are making millions a day. But not only the top players are able to make more cash / hour, your average player joe is making a ton more then he used to be able to, thanks to barrows, various drag items, trail items and what not. I would be surprised if the comming year doesn't provide any new great money making oppurtunities. The gp creation is not influenced by this though, people high alch because it trains magic fast, not because it earns cash. Thus the inflation keeps on going. Why would anyone want 8 drag chains though, they only go down in price more and more anyway. Rares, instead, only go up on the long-term.

I've seen one going for 70M, but I'm not sure if it was serious :D Sounds unlikely, the top they reached was slightly above 30m ;).

Hi there, welcome to the tip.it community :).

What Fook means is that rares will always go higher then any peak they currently reached and thus it is always "smarter" to hang on to it in the long run. But like you said, if you never sell it, you'll never 'be rich' either. Some people, like pure merchants don't care about that as their goal is being as rich as they can (and keeping rares helps with that)... But for skillers who would also love to use the cash on their skills, it may be an idea to sell them very slowly throughout the years.

With dedication you can be among the richest players within 2 years - even nowadays.

Yup, now people can guess if it was for the half wines or the disks lol. ;) ZtyX - I believe I made it very clear that the predictions given were only my own expectations on the future prices and have a huge chance of being way off from the reality. Plus, the price predictions were, like I said, mostly based on the history, which doesn't take into account tons of things that could happen this year. People are free to disagree with any or all the predictions I made and should make choices on their own judgement, not on mine. Furthermore... ...I hope you never get a gambling addiction as you would loose all your money pretty quickly then.

The people who buy them for the looks care about that ;). And yes, masks and santas have changed in price drastically since the creation of this thread and the graphs, which was only a couple of days ago :). Not surprised by the recent [bleep]ing in especially mask prices as I've been expecting it to happen for a while already. I wonder what prices they'll peak to and whether they will drop down a bit or not though.

Checked this morning, and they seem to be 13mil.. All masks went up though. Seeing they were undervaluated compared to phats anyway, it's not that strange.

You, can't even call your name ingame :(.

To be honest, I based the numbers mostly on my own experiences of rares over the year I actively merchanted the most (which was from the start of rs2 to roughly one year later). I have traded with tons of rich other players in that time and have seen the necessary things to end up making some of my conclusions. I also did some extensive research to the estimated total value of the rares market on the estimated total gp ingame at various dates, which I roughly believe to be a constant. With the numbers I gave in the article, this somewhat seems to be true, making the numbers more likely to be true. For the smaller rares, I assumed that their total market values (thus number of the rare * the price) would be quite similiar as well (as it are practically the same type of rares: you can't wear them, they only cost a lot of money because they are a rare). Also note that this is an estimate of the total of the rares ingame though. Many of the 500 estimated phat sets may never be sold once on the market in the comming year; the total of rares in circulation at any given time is much lower then the numbers I gave. So there's no formula ;), it is mostly a conclusion of my own observations with several reasons for why I think these numbers are about right. Like I said in the article, people are free to disagree with them though. I believe in the article I said: :P Did you take a look at the logaritmic (thus exponential) graph of the phat prices though? You can nearly draw a straight line over the real fluctation, for example, take a look at this: This does show that rare prices develop exponentially rather then linearly.

My expectations are not including speculation on updates that you have idea about how they are gonna work indeed :P. Plus, I've said in the article that the predictions may be off a lot if Jagex does very important updates with large consequences. The argument that people won't be able to afford them at 500mil is not very rational though. People say similiar things now, said similiar things when they were 100mil and when they were 50mil. Point is that rares will always go up on the long-term by consistent game mechanics. They have no limited price ability (yeah the sky really is the limit in theory ;)) - there may be some point where they would slow down with going up, but with people currently making 1mil / hour with runecrafting (slayer has become relatively unimportant), I think we are far away from reaching such a point. Despite various important updates like slayer, barrows and other things that boosted the economy, I've always said that the total gp ingame and the huge inflation caused by that is a much more important factor on the long-term. Slayer and barrows only created an early peak, after which the prices went up a little more slowly. As the gp creation ingame is a pretty steady trend, we should have a pretty steady trend in the phat prices on the long-term as well, providing no important changes regarding gp creation (and no huge changes in the demand of phats) happen. Luckely I already wanted to show the following graph anyway, which shows that very clearly: http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v472/ ... fphats.png As you can see, you can practically make a straight line of the phat prices since the rock bottom of the rs2 depression, if we don't take the normal graph of phats but the logaritmic graph. redserpent4 - I'm totally sure that whites were never worth more then blues, neither before nor after the dupe. :)

It wouldn't have increased by 535%, it would have increased by 435%, and I rounded that down a bit. 1.15^12 = 5.35, which means it increased by 4.35 ;). What you ment to say is that the prices typically five-doubled (the orignal price + the 400% increase) each year over the past 2 years. Thanks :). Yeah, it did took quite some time to write this and especially to keep the graphs updated throughout the years, but I think it's well worth it :). Yep, masks just shot up in the past 3 days, which is why it doesn't show that in the graph :).

Yeah, I heard similiar stories like this (one person owning like 50 of them) and I think I know who it is. If it's true, this was probably also the main reason why half wines went down so much after their peak. Thanks for all the positive reactions :).

http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=328924 Anyway, the numbers there are a bit outdated by now, without doing calculations, I'm estimating it around ~750bil now.

Hi Fook! :)

I don't get how people can complain about being able to use an item... Even if they can't get the item themselves.

deathhead154 - do not bump 2 year old topics.

Most kids have no idea what they are talking about.. So, a definate no from me. Oh and I'm 18 myself and that's the legal voting age over here.

:roll:

If it "obviously" causes violence, then isn't it proven that these people are violent? Burning someone else his flag is not an direct attack? IMO burning someone's flag is a direct declaration of war, nothing more and nothing less. And people in middle-east countries have been doing that for decades now. No, why should we? As a reaction on the cartoons (which are allowed by our laws in our countries) the extremist muslims burn down embassies and as a result people are killed to - and you find that we should apologize? I fail to comprehend that logic. That's exactly the problem, the cartoons are blown up to be something more important then the lives of 6 million people. Tell you what, an insult can never be more important then the life of even only one person.

*Gives cookie to Drummer* :roll: Remember that rune kites were 100K when I started playing, januari 2003.. Few months later all rune prices would be at the prices they have had for like 2.5 years now and will maintain to have forever. :)

The existance of these threads shows that there's something clearly... Messed up at Jagex costumer support. :(

Good article. Especially lazy typers annoy me on the forums, as you have all the time to type your post here, which is slightly different in the real-time chattings ingame. However, I oftenly doubt that sentences like "omg lol i jst hti a 20!!2111w oww" are typed faster then "cool I just hit a 20! wow!". I don't mind people who use generally accepted abbreviations in chat though - chat is real time and fast paced, thus it's not totally true that noone cares how fast you type. Plus, you can only write so much in one sentence in chat.

Hard to expect anything else, they'll need to make money of it somehow too ;).