Duke_Freedom

Ok perhaps excluding the law runecrafting world 66 wasn't a good idea, though your assumption is that the person has already 30mil laying around. And yes it was clear that you should have the materials banked, just pointing out it's not very accurate to exclude the cost of the materials as it takes time too. Not directly no, the topic itself is handling total gp creation though. Gp creation (money printing) leads, by definition, to inflation as it devaluates the currency. As I end up concluding in the second post of that thread (though not explicitly posted), I estimated that the total gp supplies between december 2004 and december 2005 had grown from 150bil to roughly 600bil. So if we set an index on december 2004 of the total gp ingame at 100%, the index would be at 400% on december 2005. A similiar index of the rares prices (again with december 2004 = 100%) is 500% on december 2005. This shows very clearly that a large part of the increase in the prices of rares is derived from the inflation rate (and yes, it's only the rate that is important), which was 300% between december 2004 - december 2005. So why do I also claim that the effects of inflation are dropping, even by constant game mechanics, population factors, etc and why this is not in contradiction with other things I say. Constant game mechanics + population factors mean that the growth of gp creation / day is a constant factor. I estimated the gp creation at 1bil around december 2004 and at around 1.5bil around december 2005. Estimating it around december 2006 would give 2.25bil, thus an average of (1.5+2.25)/2 = 1.9bil / day for the comming year. 365*1.9bil = 700bil gp that would be created in the comming year. However, that would "only" mean an inflation of 110% in the comming year, significantly lower then the 300% over the last year. Thus this implies that the importancy of inflation as one of the reasons why rares go up, drops.

Prices tend to rise relatively to each other, that means, they tend to rise the same %, not the same absolute value..

It's an excuse, though I wonder why they needed the Danish cartoons as excuse for such a competition as they have already said things like this tens, if not hundreds of times: They already burned hundreds of American flags. They already called for death upon Bush and "all irreligious western pigs" dozens of times... And now they are so-called offended by some cartoons making fun of their prophet? Something that is quite normal in western countries and is called satire. Unlike claimed by the muslims, it's not done to offend muslims specifically, as these kind of cartoons are made about any important person. It are only "a few" extremistic muslims who overreact (violently)? Whole countries are boycotting the denes and some leaders of middle-east countries are also calling for a total boycott of the European Union. Thousands are protesting against the cartoons, all around the world. How can anyone convince me that it are "only a few" extremists? Don't get me wrong, I do not make claims that "most muslims" are like this or any statement that suggests it is a "majority". Fact stays however that the problem is bigger then "just a few extremists", especially when important leaders of these middle-east countries are part of the extremists and terroristic parties can win an absolute majority in elections in these countries. The problem is big and that has been denied for decades - and it has absolutely nothing to do with these cartoons. Especially with the current situation where Iran is continuing development of nuclear weapons and Hamas has an absolute majority in Palestina, a total war situation in the middle-east seems nearer then ever before.

No! It's Runes Cape.. :lol:

If we exclude law runecrafting world 66, people get 10K runecrafting exp per hour when they can craft natures in the abyss. That means you'll be able to get from level 44 to 79 in 170 hours. And continuing at the same speed, your still another 400+ hours away from level 91. Most of the figures you gave there can only be reached by spending cash - getting that cash costs time too. Yes, ofcourse it's a dilemma. Just keep in mind that insane players spend 170 hours of their time just to get 99 firemaking, a totally useless skill, too - and the total amount of such people is approaching 250. Look at the top 2000 overall players, they roughly have 100mil total experience on average. 100mil exp at 40K per hour, which is pretty efficient considering the slow skills, that means they spend 2500 hours in the game. 170 hours is not even 10% of that. The point of these games is that there is not a set goal, people set their own goals, and owning a phat has shown to be a popular goal for a lot of runescape players. Ofcourse demand will drop more and more as the price gets higher and higher, but I do not see a stagnation point as of yet though. In opposite to what you say throughout your posts, I have in fact written an article about inflation in RuneScape. http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=328924 Also, 'my inflation theory' doesn't say that the total increase in the prices of rares can be explained solely by the inflation rate. There are various other minor aspects that determine the actual procentual increase of rares in a years time. However, I do claim that any inflation that occurs, translates to an equal price increase in rares and that it was the most important factor for the price increase in rares over the past 2 years. By constant market mechanics, the importancy of inflation is (slowly) dropping though. This is because the absolute inflation (aka total gp creation) remains constant. As the total amount of gp rises due to the absolute inflation, the rate of inflation drops. Way too high 'predictions'. Nor do I know where you get your 800% figure from, as it has been 400-500% over the past 2 years. Recalculating 1000% in 20 years to % percentage per year gives 12.2% / year. Several articles can be found all around the internet about how house prices are/were booming the past decades and percentages of 10%+ aren't anything special. Besides that, you can't compare rl property with runescape rares. Nor can you compare RuneScape's inflation with rl inflation in such a direct way.

There already was a topic about this: http://forum.tip.it/viewtopic.php?t=397735 ~Locked

Personally I would say that anyone should be able to select whether others are allowed to follow you or not, not just pmods alone.

There are plenty of topics about this, please use the search button, or check the first pages of the boards. ~Locked

That's not something I should do before I quit, that's something that would make me quit :lol:.

People fail to see that this is not merchanting nor making a business from trading. It's a form of work. Trading / merchanting = Spending your time trying to buy something cheaper from one player in order to sell it for more to another player. Essentially the money is only made by interaction with other players. Work = Spending your time to obtain certain items, which then can be sold at a profit. Obtaining should be taken broadly here. Smelting coal + iron to steel bars which some people wrongly refer to as merchanting to, is still 'obtaining' items and thus work. More generally, everything where you obtain an item by not just buying it from another player is not merchanting. Therefore, buying whatever from a shop is work - not merchanting like most people think it is. And IMO it's stupid (excuse me for not using a better word) and it makes no sense that you can't do a buy x; especially if you try to observe it from a realism point of view. That adding a buy x future would have such a drastic consequences (which I think is exaggerating it heavily by the way) implicates a bad concept in the system - not a fundamental problem with a buy x option.

Price lob = price coal because they take about the same (scarce) time to get? Ofcourse, it essentially only matters how much time getting one item costs relative to another one - that is according to all real life economic rules though. ~Locked on request

My god, the guy who made that needs a prize :lol:.

It's very bad exp / hour though.

Had to remove some posts.. Let's stay on topic from now on and not drop to a level of name calling, shall we?

Exactly, and there should also be buy x / buy all options.

Hm, I disagree. Gp inflation just isn't as evident as the [bleep]es caused by concentrated wealth. Gp inflation works on the long term. Concentrated wealth (like the Slayer-richness, which was in effect about 9 months ago) causes quick heavy [bleep]es in the price, a short term effect, which only plays a minor role in the price goal of rares on the long term. Also, your 17-day figure does not impress me in any way. In opposite to your interpretation, I think that it is very fast and that it shows that phats are far from reaching a serious long-term-stagnation yet. There might not be many of such people who can make so much, but there aren't that many phats in game either.

Let's not drop to a level of name calling in this topic, shall we? Do you think all the water on our earth will be gone within your lifetime? No? What is the difference between it being unlimited and limited then - for you it will be unlimited? Still not convinced? Ok it's not unlimited you say.. It's scarce. Fine. Why isn't coal in RuneScape scarce then? It definately costs a certain amount of time to get? And we all know that our time is scarce. No, we can't get the coal in any other way then spending time. In fact, we can't get any material or anything at all in RuneScape without spending time. And time is scarce, thus everything in RuneScape is scarce. You mean the price of essence goes up for bulk lots? It's a convenience factor. Actually, you should have jumped on it and said that is a perfect example of how RuneScape's economy is not comparable to our real life economy. In our real life economy, bulk always sells lower then small amounts, which, for a big part, is a result of our mass-production techniques. In RuneScape, we have two types of items. Materials, which always sell higher in bulk, and finished consumer-products, which always sell lower in bulk. So why do materials behave so weirdly? People need millions of materials their skills and therefore bulk sells for more. Again, it's really time they are buying, because they are paying a higher price to evade the extra time you'd need to spend if you'd buy the materials in smaller amounts.

Hmm, maybe more like 2-3K anyway, if those numbers are correct. :)

You are forgetting one thing. What you say is exactly what people said when blues reached ~30mil when they reached ~50mil, when reached ~70mil, when they reached 100mil, and now, now they reached ~170mil. Prices of phats will always remain to continue upwards if the game mechanics don't change too much. Healthy is different.. Like I said, 70 - 100% in 2 months is on the very high side. On the other hand, I can't see a drop / crash occur. More likely we won't see the prices continue to go up as much soon though. It's gonna depend on the investors though, the people who buy rares and let them sit for ages. If various of them do decide to sell of their stock (which isn't too unrealistic with the current prices), price may drop anyway.

I think the price may be even a bit higher then your 1.5 - 2K estimate. IIRC manta rays were selling for an unstable ~7K per - the times they were actually being sold (which was rarely). Now manta rays requires high level fishing too, in opposite of the tuna potato, plus that we have an increased supply of 22hp-healing food, so we can't expect that price to stay steady.. I have no idea how hard / easy it is to make these thingies though (most interesting data I would love to know: amount of tuna potato you can make per / hour doing everything yourself), but I think an estimate price of ~3-4K wouldn't even be that unrealistic. If it would have never been an option to disable food in staking then the food would have been much more expensive though.

I personally think some of the active merchants are overspeculating on phats. Though the recent bannings may have played a small positive factor, I think that the current rises in phats, roughly 70 - 100% up in only 2 months are going too fast, at least relatively to the minor rares.

Apparently Jagex is putting even more pressure on the already-not-so-healthy food market. High Level Fishing and Cooking = Obsolete. :? Though from the reactions on this thread it seems the food is too time consuming to make.

Then I would suggest those people do not post, as it would be spam. ;) And yeah, all mmorpg's are economic simulations in a way. Not really a miracle that economists really study people's habits and economic laws in these games a lot nowadays. Because mmorpgs are smaller economies it is much easier (yet still very difficult) to understand what really happens, in opposite to our complex and large real life economy. I myself love analysing and observing rs' economy ;).

I initially didn't lock this thread, because the idea itself, in a more thought-out and altered way, may not be as bad as it seems. I'm locking it now because it seems only flaming is comming from it though. I suggest people who aren't mods and who aren't the creator of the thread don't post things like this... ...in the future anymore. Also, I'll refer some of you guys to the sticky of this board, which says that if you are not able to give constructive critism, you better not post at all. ~Locked

Actually, it is a scam.. And these kind of scams seem to get more popular lately.