Duke_Freedom

It's pretty impossible to predict rares 5 years from now... Rares don't even exist for 5 years yet and there are tons of factors involved that influence the prices on such a long-term. ^^ Fact is that the money cap doesn't really limit their price.

1) 44,422,117 2) 6,832,133 3) 15,38% Interesting data, though the standard deviation is large, but the graph does look a lot like the normal distribution graph ^^..

RuneScape already offers an extremely large free trial with F2P. Furthermore they already offer extremely low subscription of $5 / month, while most of these type of games cost $10-15 / month and with some of them you still have to 'buy' the game first for $50 as well.

Probably 256, 2048, 8192 and 16384 (all powers of 2). Actually I'm still surprised that the community did so little research about drop rates; despite all the people keeping large (>500 kills) drop logs.

Well I wouldn't say none of us would have existed without him, but that surely is an impressive story :shock:.

(Btw, the person I bought the salmon of had just referred someone to me who was selling a blue party 20mil underprice :)) My most profitable and largest phat deal ever, 1.5 years ago. That 255mil back then is like 3bil now. Anyway, I made a instant profit of 75mil on that deal. :) Zezima is bored so he goes and bother me? :P

Personally I don't get the deal of untradability at all. Why don't we just let people trade freely, anything. Quest items might be discussable, though I'm not negative about making those tradable either - some (actually, a lot) people hate quests, why can't they somehow circumvent doing things they hate? This is still a game, mind you.

Sorry, but I'm locking this. It's a bit too much near the edge of what we can allow to be discussed on tip.it in my opinion.

It was varrock back in RuneScape classic. Now it's falador. ^^

If the 'denying client login/ip after 7 wrong attempts' is not written client side (which would be stupid if it was) then your not gonna be able to circumvent that though ;).

Do not diss firemaking! :evil: It's the best skill there is! The ultimate skill for a merchant. So useless yet so symbolic. Oi, and add "putting other people's houses on fire" to that list of suggestions of Lim_Dul. ;) ~Proud 99 firemaker~

My main is Duke Freedom! ... Oh wait.. That's true. :oops: Uh no, in many cases, people who claim to have a level xyz main don't have a level xyz main.

I'm glad you have no idea what you are talking about and prove that by calling me stupid.. Thanks. Well if you try filling in your username and a wrong password and then check how long it takes before you get a reply from the server that says that the password is incorrect, you'll see that it takes much longer then a second. But if you use a bit more advanced techniques you're right that you may be able to circumvent that though, no idea about that. It doesn't really matter that much anyway... If it takes 5-12 thousand variations a second brute-forcing is still not feasible.

I'm sure Jagex has earned enough to keep it running for much longer then that ^^, plus they'll still get some income from adds, though that's probably not enough to pay for all their expenses. Then again, if everyone cancelled their members, they wouldn't need a large development team and costumer support etc anymore. What would happen... You would all have to try to log into one of the full 2000 player free to play servers and all but one pay to play server would be shut down. And I would be playing alone on that one pay to play server. ;)

Beaten to it. I think this was what you were getting at Ian. Still, if you get hacked as a result of a dictionary attack (which will still take a significant time period, but more realistic then brute-force, unless Jagex has a system in place which blocks ip's after x wrong passwords) that just means you were too careless in making a secure password in the first place... But since it are usually not extremely high leveled players / rich who got 'hacked', I don't think they were a victim of dictionary attacks either. Hm your right - and yeah they should be, was surprised to see they aren't.. :?

2 * 26 (alphabet capital + lower case) + 10 (0..9) = 62 characters Let's say a password of 8 characters.. 62^8 ~ 2 * 10^14 Let's say one trial takes 1 second :lol:. 2*10^14 / (3600 * 24 * 365) = 1.6 million years on average. Nope, noone is getting brute force hacked in this game. Fine, you use only 5 characters?! Still takes over 6 years on average to brute-force hack you then, and that is if we could try once every second(!), which we obviously cannot... The stuff that simple mathematics can enlighten us about is just incredible. ;) However, what may cause people to get hacked while "they didn't install anything" (sorry, but I honestly doubt 99% of those cases) is that they have a too predictable password or a word in the dictionary.

There has never even been an april fool's event in RuneScape. Locking this as this is not a proper rant nor a discussion.

I'm not sure whether I should find that sad or good... It's pretty sad to see a game called RuneScape up there with all those famous people / happenings / etc.

Hiya, sad to see you go, though we haven't really spoken in ages anymore due to, like you said, inactivity on both sides I guess. :P How come you only have so little stuff.. Did I miss something? You used to be a lot richer from what I remember? :?

Heh, one thing I learned throughout the years is that only few of the top 20 skilled players care about cash. They all could have been up in the billions worth if they had more patience and invested in rares - instead of selling them off, what most of them did. Then again, they just have a totally different playing style. Besides, they usually make tons of new skills as well (slayer) and mainly use runecrafting these days to afford their expenses, so I guess they don't really 'need' rares to afford the expensive skills like prayer, farming etc.

Well, not everyone will be it. It will still cost ~150mil gp.

In fact, there have been mmorpg's who did hire economists to help with setting up a stable and healthy game economy. O yes, the rares will definately 'crash' on the short term. In the meanwhile materials will probably shoot up quite a lot, depending on how much exp you get from the finished goods. My estimates include all rares owned by people who might sell their rare sometime in the future. Anyway, let's not discuss those numbers here.. Even with my estimates the total value of the rares market is ~650bil while I estimate the total amount of gp in the game at ~800-900bil, so if panic hits so heavily that even the "I'm-very-unlikely-to-sell-my-rares" people sell their rares then the prices can definately drop a lot. The later will probably don't change that much. I think the gp / xp rates won't change that much but, instead, the prices of materials will adjust. Ofcourse it will be slightly cheaper because materials now "yield more exp" though. It's pretty funny actually.. I probably made most of my money during a dropping rares market. Admitted, most people aren't very good at merchanting in a dropping rares market though. If this idea is implemented, we might see another rs2 (grand) depression like the one that occured at the start of rs2 and that took 3-4 months to hit rock-bottom in which the prices of rares halved. Eventually prices will hit a rock-bottom though, and just like during the rs2 grand depression they will probably be oversold (meaning that they are (heavily) undervaluated). After prices dropped 3-4 months at the start of rs2, I knew rock-bottom was hit and started buying up blue phats - oftenly from other merchants who thought I went crazy (I was buying for inflated prices.. bought in a range of 4.5mil - 5mil within one day). A couple of days later they were selling for ~6.3mil, such a rise of 40% in just a matter of days was extreme back then, especially considering that the prices had just dropped for 3-4 months long. What I want to say is that once rock-bottom has been reached, prices will probably jump up a lot again as well. The point is that once rock-bottom has been reached, people regain trust in rares as well. This will cause a rebirth of rares ever ongoing price increase again. Better distribution of money means larger demand for rares in the end, preventing rares from crashing too much. As people will be able to gain more gp for their materials, rares will be easier to get as well. Hm depends a lot on how you are going to make it work totally. Also, keep in mind again that inflation is only one of the effects that is responsible for the ever-increasing rise (yes I'm repeating myself :P). Population growth has been an extremely important aspect as well over the past 2 years. Right now we're looking at ~600K member players One year ago that was ~250K member players The year before that it was ~70K member players Ofcourse we expect the relative population growth to slow down more and more, but at the current state, if population growth directly translates to an increase in the price of rares, then rares will probably still double within a year. Furthermore it just came to my mind that this idea will be hard to use on fletching. Fletching is a profitable / neutral skill to level, meaning it doesn't cost exp to level it. That means that few people will be interested to trade their high-alchable yew long (worth ~450gp if we substract nature costs) for exp. And ironically fletching is by far the largest gp creator these days as well. Perception = not the truth :P. Rares are worth a lot gp because a lot of people are interested to buy it (even at these insane high prices!). Actually the final truth is that any currency is worthless, no matter what it's used for. It's merely there to make trading easier and because everyone accept it as a way of payment, the currency has a "value". Let's assume one steel plate is going to give ~60xp. Actually make it 62.5xp, that means that every steel bar provides 12.5 more xp. Since steel bars currently give 25xp that means an increase in xp of 50%. Or in other words, you'll only need 2/3rds of the steel bars that you needed before you could trade in steel plates for exp. Materials will yield more xp due to this update and thus the demand for materials will drop. But also: because materials yield more xp and since the production of materials will stay the same or actually even increases, the total xp produced grows enormously --> thus much more higher leveled players. I trained my firemaking to 99 without buying any logs, I know all about it :). However, I think the idea will be rejected on other grounds by Jagex. The trend I've seen throughout the years, is that they try to make skills as "un-buyable" as possible. Although you can argue differently as farming is buyable - but keep in mind slayer and runecrafting are not. I also really doubt whether many players like the idea of "buyable" skills.

If we assume ~200K of those thingies around then I think they would cost somewhere between 500 - 750K..

In other words, allow (less or more) direct 'buying of experience'. Something I've always been positive about and something that can definately stop the inflation if implemented well. However, I don't think that Jagex and the largest part of the players like it. Hm with the current ~800bil+ estimated gp in the economy, you probably won't see rares dropping fast or perhaps not at all. In fact, it's very likely that they'll still continue to go up, just somewhat slower. Don't forget inflation is only one of reasons why rares go up and that gp is merely a symbol for the relative worth between items. Fighting inflation will not change the relative extremely high value of rares nor will it stop their ever-increasing cycle on the long-term. Apart from inflation, the fact that rares are limited (and dropping) in numbers, means that their (relative) price will always go up on the long-term. Another side effect of any suggestions like these is that the amount of higher leveled players will rise significantly. Lastly, materials will see a great rise in price as well, depending on the exp you get from the finished goods. What makes you think merchants will suddenly shift to materials? Rares still exist and will continue to play a large role in the economy despite your suggestion. And what makes you think that people will suddenly stop buying rares? Admitted, the demand will drop somewhat if people can train skills faster / easier / buy exp directly, but it definately won't disappear! Like I said, gp is merely a way to express relative richness. If the total amount of gp in the game is dropping and my own amount of gp is staying constant, then I'm still becomming richer. ;) Don't get me wrong, in opposite of most "solutions" people come up with, you at least gave it some good thought. In fact, I've thought about a "solution" along these lines myself various times and I'm quite positive about it. However it isn't a "solution" to the "problem" of rares, but to the problem of the extreme inflation in the game. ;)

I really wonder what kind of crashes such idea's might cause. Point is tons of people buy rares because they are a great investement tool. Idea's like these take away that effect, so you would expect that quite a few people sell off their rares. In the short time after this idea would be implemented prices will probably be quite instable and fluctuate a lot downwards & upwards. Eventually they'll stabalize slightly below the shop prices though and won't change much from there on anymore. My guess is that these idea's just aren't that much different as "removal of rares" idea's. Many investors would still dump their rares and their money would most likely be used to buy / invest in something else. Large rises in pseudo-rares may happen and materials may increase a lot as well.