Ok, I'm curious to see if we can find the approximate drop rate of the Draconic visage. Here's how you can help!

 

 

 

-Post how many dragons you have killed to your best knowledge

 

-what type of dragon have you been slaying? (black/KBD/Iron/Steel/wyvern)

 

-do you wear a wealth (not sure if I will include this or not)

 

-how many visage drops have you had, if any?

 

 

 

If anyone knows much about statistics, please help me with this!

 

 

 

Thanks for your help everyone!!! =D>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis:

 

 

 

Total dragons killed:6907 Visage drops:1 Drop rate:unknown

 

 

 

Black dragons killed:1268 Visage drops:1 Drop rate:

 

 

 

Iron dragons killed:1980 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

Steel dragons killed: 1120 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

Skeletal wyverns killed:2480 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

KBDs killed:59 Visage drops: Drop rate:

I killed around 150 black dragons with a wealth. No visage drops here =(

120+ wyverns, no vissage

 

100+ irons, no vissage

 

 

 

I havent really tried that hard yet.

800 Wyverns

 

600-700 Irons

 

100 Steels

 

 

 

No visage.

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

Yeah.. if even that, because it's a random drop. You can get 2 in a row if you are extremely lucky. That still doesn't prove a thing :\ All you can say that it is really really rare.

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

My hope is that I can add the total number of dragons that everyone has slain together and divide by the total number of visages that everyone has gotten. That way, even people who haven't gotten one can help.

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

My hope is that I can add the total number of dragons that everyone has slain together and divide by the total number of visages that everyone has gotten. That way, even people who haven't gotten one can help.

 

 

 

that will make the percentage go off by alot but u should do 2 then

 

1 like that and 1 with people who have gotton the drops

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

My hope is that I can add the total number of dragons that everyone has slain together and divide by the total number of visages that everyone has gotten. That way, even people who haven't gotten one can help.

 

 

 

that will make the percentage go off by alot but u should do 2 then

 

1 like that and 1 with people who have gotton the drops

 

 

 

If I only include the people who got the drops, it will be way off. Chances are, most people who got the drops only killed under 1000 dragons. That would make the chance of a drop 1 in 1000. But since most people kill that many without a drop, the chances are a lot lower than that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah.. if even that, because it's a random drop. You can get 2 in a row if you are extremely lucky. That still doesn't prove a thing :\ All you can say that it is really really rare.

If you flip a coin 2000 times, they could all land on heads. They still have a 50% chance of landing on tails. Most likely, you will get NEARLY 1000 heads and 1000 tails. The drop rate of rare items in runescape works the same way. You could get 2 draconic visages in a row, but it's unlikely.

We can't find out the drop rate of any rare drops, but i'll post here anyways.

 

 

 

250 blacks

 

200 wyverns

 

400 iron

 

800 steel

 

 

 

no visage

 

 

 

Pretty rare eh. And only 1 d legs out of all that too.

We can't find out the drop rate of any rare drops, but i'll post here anyways.

 

 

 

250 blacks

 

200 wyverns

 

400 iron

 

800 steel

 

 

 

no visage

 

 

 

Pretty rare eh. And only 1 d legs out of all that too.

 

 

 

u actualy can

 

every item has a certain rarity or percent that when u kill a monster is calculated and randomized between all items

 

 

 

it just seems random because the percent is so random

 

 

 

just because a item could b 1/2000 doesnt mean u can get it in 2000 kills

 

if u kill 1k dragons the drop rate will still be 1/2000 not 1000/2000

We can't find out the drop rate of any rare drops, but i'll post here anyways.

 

 

 

250 blacks

 

200 wyverns

 

400 iron

 

800 steel

 

 

 

no visage

 

 

 

Pretty rare eh. And only 1 d legs out of all that too.

 

 

 

Yeah it will definitely be tough. At this point, i'm guessing the rate is about 1 in over 10k, since no one here has gotten one yet.

We can't find out the drop rate of any rare drops, but i'll post here anyways.

 

 

 

250 blacks

 

200 wyverns

 

400 iron

 

800 steel

 

 

 

no visage

 

 

 

Pretty rare eh. And only 1 d legs out of all that too.

 

 

 

Yeah it will definitely be tough. At this point, i'm guessing the rate is about 1 in over 10k, since no one here has gotten one yet.

 

 

 

im thinking its a 0.005% chance so 1/20000

We can't find out the drop rate of any rare drops, but i'll post here anyways.

 

 

 

250 blacks

 

200 wyverns

 

400 iron

 

800 steel

 

 

 

no visage

 

 

 

Pretty rare eh. And only 1 d legs out of all that too.

 

 

 

Yeah it will definitely be tough. At this point, i'm guessing the rate is about 1 in over 10k, since no one here has gotten one yet.

 

 

 

im thinking its a 0.005% chance so 1/20000

 

 

 

I guess hunting for rare drops isnt a good moneymaker then...

Its not that rare. Probably like a dragon medium from black demons.

400 Wyverns, 200 Irons.

 

 

 

ROW, no Visage.

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

My hope is that I can add the total number of dragons that everyone has slain together and divide by the total number of visages that everyone has gotten. That way, even people who haven't gotten one can help.

 

 

 

that will make the percentage go off by alot but u should do 2 then

 

1 like that and 1 with people who have gotton the drops

 

 

 

If I only include the people who got the drops, it will be way off. Chances are, most people who got the drops only killed under 1000 dragons. That would make the chance of a drop 1 in 1000. But since most people kill that many without a drop, the chances are a lot lower than that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah.. if even that, because it's a random drop. You can get 2 in a row if you are extremely lucky. That still doesn't prove a thing :\ All you can say that it is really really rare.

If you flip a coin 2000 times, they could all land on heads. They still have a 50% chance of landing on tails. Most likely, you will get NEARLY 1000 heads and 1000 tails. The drop rate of rare items in runescape works the same way. You could get 2 draconic visages in a row, but it's unlikely.

 

 

 

yea... except for the fact that it DOESNT work like that. flipping a coin means there is only 2 drops for that monster. that isnt right. next, flipping a coin has equal chance of landing on a side. getting a rare drop like a visage or a 3rd age kite from a clue is like throwing a pencil up in the air and it langing on the eraser. finding out the drop rate of a visage is only possible if you have a LOT of people trying to get it and posting their accurate results. otherwise having 1 person say they got it in 500 kills,a nd another in 789 kills wont accurately represent the true drop rate. it might be 1:10,000, but 2 people got lucky.

the thing is, is that this wont work if people give info if they havnt gotton it

 

it will only work if they have gotton it and exxact numbers would help alot

My hope is that I can add the total number of dragons that everyone has slain together and divide by the total number of visages that everyone has gotten. That way, even people who haven't gotten one can help.

 

 

 

that will make the percentage go off by alot but u should do 2 then

 

1 like that and 1 with people who have gotton the drops

 

 

 

If I only include the people who got the drops, it will be way off. Chances are, most people who got the drops only killed under 1000 dragons. That would make the chance of a drop 1 in 1000. But since most people kill that many without a drop, the chances are a lot lower than that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Yeah.. if even that, because it's a random drop. You can get 2 in a row if you are extremely lucky. That still doesn't prove a thing :\ All you can say that it is really really rare.

If you flip a coin 2000 times, they could all land on heads. They still have a 50% chance of landing on tails. Most likely, you will get NEARLY 1000 heads and 1000 tails. The drop rate of rare items in runescape works the same way. You could get 2 draconic visages in a row, but it's unlikely.

 

 

 

yea... except for the fact that it DOESNT work like that. flipping a coin means there is only 2 drops for that monster. that isnt right. next, flipping a coin has equal chance of landing on a side. getting a rare drop like a visage or a 3rd age kite from a clue is like throwing a pencil up in the air and it langing on the eraser. finding out the drop rate of a visage is only possible if you have a LOT of people trying to get it and posting their accurate results. otherwise having 1 person say they got it in 500 kills,a nd another in 789 kills wont accurately represent the true drop rate. it might be 1:10,000, but 2 people got lucky.

 

 

 

Which, presumably, is why he is attempting to collect info from as many people as possible. Including those who haven't gotten one, we can get a rough idea of the drop rate. It's not the exact same as the flipping coin, but the same principles apply. You COULD do it with one person, like the coin flipping, but they'd have to kill a -lot- to get a good average and work out the rough probability. It works the exact same as the coin flipping, the only difference is that the chances aren't 50/50. All you need is a large number of dragons killed, and the total number of drops (assuming the drop rate is the same for everybody, which i think we can assume it is), from there you can work out the drop rate roughly.

 

 

 

It'll never be exact, but very close assuming people are honest. Can be done with one person, but they'd have to have a lot of kills to get a good average, but the principle is the same as the coin flipping.

I'm prettu sure that some jagex mod said on rsof that normal dragon drops are common compared to visage :|. Can't confirm thought.

50 kbds, none

ive killed 368 black dragons with no drop, although this is useless as everyones luck is different.

Ok, I'm curious to see if we can find the approximate drop rate of the Draconic visage. Here's how you can help!

 

 

 

-Post how many dragons you have killed to your best knowledge

 

-what type of dragon have you been slaying? (black/KBD/Iron/Steel/wyvern)

 

-do you wear a wealth (not sure if I will include this or not)

 

-how many visage drops have you had, if any?

 

 

 

If anyone knows much about statistics, please help me with this!

 

 

 

Thanks for your help everyone!!! =D>

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Analysis:

 

 

 

Total dragons killed:3620 Visage drops:0 Drop rate:

 

 

 

Black dragons killed:400 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

Iron dragons killed:1200 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

Steel dragons killed: 900 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

Skeletal wyverns killed:1120 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

KBDs killed:0 Visage drops: Drop rate:

 

 

 

This thread will be going no where. There is no way you can find the "actual" drop rate through inaccurate results. People could be lying for all you know, thus misleading everyone.

 

 

 

Some things are just better left unknown. Let this thread die.

i killed about 90 skeletal wyverns

 

about 20 steel dragons

 

about 9 king black dragon

 

 

 

and no visage

 

 

 

 

 

none of those are exact thats jsut an estimate

I've killed around 200 iron/steel drags, I kill them indescriminately so I can't help you there.

 

 

 

My friend however got a visage drop on his very first KBD kill after the update. Hope that helps.

It's fairly inaccurate, but if people would post how many it took before they got one instead of just how many they killed so far without one we'd have better results.