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Why Runescape will experience inflation in the coming months


agamemnus

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With the release of the Grand Exchange, Jagex tied Grand Exchange prices to the general store.

 

 

 

To summarize this thread: I believe that Runescape will experience a period of inflation soon, and this inflation will not end until Jagex changes the Grand Exchange mechanics.

 

 

 

 

 

My theory is based on a few assumptions:

 

* The general store prices are tied to the Grand Exchange.

 

* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.

 

* Items that disappear from the general store don't go back to the Grand Exchange but disappear from the game.

 

* The analysis below does not factor in any changing amount of bots in the game or any intervention by Jagex.

 

 

 

So here is the theory, coming from someone with an M.A. in economics:

 

 

 

The regular supply and demand curve is thrown out the window when a buyer who buys X amount of goods irrespective of price is introduced. That buyer is the general store. This means that, unlike regular buyers, the general store will not reduce its quantity bought if the price goes up. The general store simply buys a portion and that gold is added to the gold surplus of players, adding to a constant inflation of products. The price will keep going up for any good that does not take a fixed gold cost to produce.

 

 

 

The only things that will stop the price from going up above a certain level (excepting Jagex intervention) is the fixed "infinite quantity" price of various items (like runes) and the fixed gold cost of some other items. (like any supplies gained from Miscellania) Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.

 

 

 

Prices will not infinitely go up because of the construction money sink (and the potential new Summoning money sink), but they will remain at much higher prices than currently due to this extra money source from general stores.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

"But Aga, the prices are low, so your theory is wrong."

 

 

 

After the GE was released, prices have decreased due to a lower spread between buyers buy and producers' selling prices due to the new ease of buying/selling items on the Grand Exchange. Each new day, however, the General Stores across Runescape are adding hundreds of millions, if not billions of GP to the economy. Each item that takes time to produce is slowly being affected by this inflation.

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Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.

 

Major flaw:

 

 

 

Prove to me that gold supply, when above a level at which it can act as a unit of account (i.e., eliminates the need for commodity money), causes inflation in Runescape as it increases.

 

 

 

This isn't RW economics, this is Runescape. When people put money into their RSbanks, it's not the same as putting it into a real bank- it not only does not exponentially increase the money supply, but by being stored away it is essentially taken out of the economy. In real life, banks loan out this money, which gets spent and put into other banks, and loaned out again, and spent, and loaned, etc.... new dollars end up going pretty far in the real world market.

 

 

 

Basically, in real life there are maybe 250B dollars in circulation, but trillions of dollars are in the economy. How? Simply, the way the banking system works. Does Runescape have this? No. New money doesn't go very far in this game. In fact, there could be a couple 100 trillion gp in the game, but because of savings, people quitting, and losses of gp, there could essentially be only a trillion or two in circulation. The complete opposite of the real world money supply.

 

 

 

So again, not only prove to me that an increase in GP would increase prices (because I have never seen this happen in this game in my life- people just store away extra cash), but also show to me how your MA in economics can really help you when it comes to understanding such an alien economy as that of Runescape.

 

 

 

Prices will not infinitely go up because of the construction money sink (and the potential new Summoning money sink), but they will remain at much higher prices than currently due to this extra money source from general stores.

 

The amount of money added to the game by alching and this addition are magnitudes higher than what Construction currently takes out. It's not even worth considering Construction when it comes to inflation, it does so little.

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Thanks for your reply,

 

 

 

Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.

 

Major flaw:

 

 

 

Prove to me that gold supply, when above a level at which it can act as a unit of account (i.e., eliminates the need for commodity money), causes inflation in Runescape as it increases.

 

 

 

This isn't RW economics, this is Runescape. When people put money into their RSbanks, it's not the same as putting it into a real bank- it not only does not exponentially increase the money supply, but by being stored away it is essentially taken out of the economy. In real life, banks loan out this money, which gets spent and put into other banks, and loaned out again, and spent, and loaned, etc.... new dollars end up going pretty far in the real world market.

 

 

 

 

In real life (before banks existed) an increase in the amount of currency increased the money supply. Some players put his gold into their account, but others use it to buy items from other players. This shouldn't change regardless of the money supply of gp.

 

 

 

 

Basically, in real life there are maybe 250B dollars in circulation, but trillions of dollars are in the economy. How? Simply, the way the banking system works. Does Runescape have this? No. New money doesn't go very far in this game. In fact, there could be a couple 100 trillion gp in the game, but because of savings, people quitting, and losses of gp, there could essentially be only a trillion or two in circulation. The complete opposite of the real world money supply.

 

 

 

 

I completely agree.

 

 

 

 

So again, not only prove to me that an increase in GP would increase prices (because I have never seen this happen in this game in my life- people just store away extra cash), but also show to me how your MA in economics can really help you when it comes to understanding such an alien economy as that of Runescape.

 

 

 

:\ Economics is the study of the efficient allocation of scarce resources. It isn't limited to the real world economies or stock markets.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Prices will not infinitely go up because of the construction money sink (and the potential new Summoning money sink), but they will remain at much higher prices than currently due to this extra money source from general stores.

 

The amount of money added to the game by alching and this addition are magnitudes higher than what Construction currently takes out. It's not even worth considering Construction when it comes to inflation, it does so little.

 

 

 

 

 

You would still have to agree with me here that construction (like some other things as repairing barrows equipment) is a money sink.

 

 

 

As to your demand that I correlate the gp supply in Runescape to the actual price of items, I have a few arguments off the top of my head:

 

 

 

* All new (non-rare) good/collectible items first have a very high price, steeply decline in price, and then slowly plateau downwards. If you consider the same argument for items as for gold (assume the gold supply is the same throughout), you will see that as more of the item exists in Runescape, the less it costs.

 

 

 

* According to basic economics, (all other things equal) if the amount of money in the system increases, the price of items goes up. (simply because there's more of it)

 

 

 

* It's true that high-alching adds a significant amount of gold to the economy, but that doesn't negate the possibility that this gold is being siphoned off to NPCs for the purchase of rares. It seems that prices have been at an equilibrium for months now even with high alching going on.

 

 

 

* Likewise, this is adding a direct gold source for all markets in the game.

 

 

 

* Throughout the game's history, before money sinks are added to the game (more runes... barrows... construction... infinite runes/other infinite quantities of items from shops) the price of items has always went up. After money sinks are added, the prices went down quickly, and then started going back up, but more slowly than before.

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* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.

 

 

 

Do you have a source for this assumption? Unless Jagex said this was true, there's really no reason at all to make it. This assumption is the linchpin of your entire argument, and it seems rather absurd. If Jagex really did do this, it would be a horrible decision on their part.

 

 

 

The regular supply and demand curve is thrown out the window when a buyer who buys X amount of goods irrespective of price is introduced.

 

 

 

I'm not sure what you mean, there are already examples of goods with inflexible demand in the real world. Seems to me that adding some inflexibility to the demand in RS might make the curves more similar to the real world demand curves, not less.

 

 

 

The only things that will stop the price from going up above a certain level (excepting Jagex intervention) is the fixed "infinite quantity" price of various items (like runes) and the fixed gold cost of some other items. (like any supplies gained from Miscellania) Any other item (one that takes a player's time to acquire) will increase in price considerably, simply because there will be more gold available.

 

 

 

So, it is already obvious that there are preexisting gold sources and gold sinks. You imagine up that possibly there's a new gold source, present no proof that it exists, and openly state that you have no idea how large it may be. You then predict that this unlikely and unknown gold source, when added to the current gold sources and gold sinks, will produce massive and sustained positive effects on inflation. Do you have any idea how crazy that sounds? Seriously, either you have an overactive imagination or you are basing this on some information that you neglected to include.

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My theory is based on a few assumptions:

 

* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.

 

 

 

 

Huh? From the Grand Exchange page on the official website - "No items are ever made or destroyed by this system - they are simply transferred from player to player. Your offer to buy or sell will, therefore, only be completed if the Grand Exchange clerks can find another player to match your trade with."

 

 

 

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#*&$

 

 

 

Got to go to work -_-. I'll give ya the extended response later as to why I don't believe there's much, if any, effect on general prices by the increase in the money supply in Runescape.

 

 

 

In the mean time, can you dig up that data for this statement:? I'm not and never have been an avid player, so I may have missed such prices fluctuations, so if you should show me them it would help me understand your argument better :) .

 

 

 

* Throughout the game's history, before money sinks are added to the game (more runes... barrows... construction... infinite runes/other infinite quantities of items from shops) the price of items has always went up. After money sinks are added, the prices went down quickly, and then started going back up, but more slowly than before.

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You have a major flaw in your theory.

 

 

 

Your only taking into account that gold enters the economy from the Buy-X.

 

 

 

It also leaves the economy that way too.

 

 

 

I have yet to sell 1 thing to the NPC stores, however I have bought loads of arrows.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

While money is entering the economy through the general stores, money is also leaving the economy the same way.

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So here is the theory, coming from someone with an M.A. in economics:

 

 

 

 

 

 

see, not even the colleges regard economics as a science. 8-)

 

 

 

it was a joke.. haha, get it? laugh now.

 

 

 

i disliked economics because they did everything backwards. of course i also had an asian teacher that didn't speak english very well. i got an A somehow though. :uhh:

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It was my understanding that the GE only effects the "Player Stock"... not the actual General Store itself. Those prices are static.

 

 

 

So unless you're basing this on the Player Stock being effected by the GE... your theory is more then likely going to be wrong.

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Another important point to remember is...

 

 

 

Randoms, Alching, Picking up GP from drops, and Selling items to stores are the ONLY way gp enters the game.

 

 

 

When you mine a coal ore for example, you are NOT bringing money into the game, you are simply creating an item that is used to transfer money from person A to person B.

 

 

 

A easier diagram to understand:

 

 

 

1) Person A mines 1 coal ore.

 

2) Person A Sellings 1 coal ore to Person B for 150gp.

 

3) Person B uses that coal ore to make something.

 

 

 

Unless person B sells that item he/she made to the bank, absoutly no form of money entered/exited the game. Items you get from barrows, GWD, any item drop, any raw material simply are placeholders to circulate gp from person to person. So really the inflation of GP is not as great as people believe. If you think about coal for our example, how many years did it take for it to raise from 80gp, to 150gp. 3, 4 years? Thats a long time for only a small ammount of gp.

 

 

 

And as for construction, while alot of people think construction takes alot of money out of the economy.. think about it again, now that you know about placeholders. You could pay 600e for all your oak planks to buy out 99, but really only 250gp is taken out each oak plank you use. Why? The oak plank is simply xfering money from one person to another. Only the action of giving gp to the sawmill is taking money out of the game. It dosent do as much damage to the economy as people think.

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no, construction takes money out of the game beacuse you're paying 500 gp to the game to plank each log, just think of how many logs have been planked since construction came out.

 

 

 

also, gold leaf and other construction materals(that can only be bought from shops) are stupid expensive.

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no, construction takes money out of the game beacuse you're paying 500 gp to the game to plank each log, just think of how many logs have been planked since construction came out.

 

 

 

I said that...

 

 

 

And as for construction, while alot of people think construction takes alot of money out of the economy.. think about it again, now that you know about placeholders. You could pay 600e for all your oak planks to buy out 99, but really only 250gp is taken out each oak plank you use. Why? The oak plank is simply xfering money from one person to another. Only the action of giving gp to the sawmill is taking money out of the game. It dosent do as much damage to the economy as people think.

 

 

 

I didnt say it was a small ammount, but in the scheme of things, 200, 300B is not alot in the RS economy.

 

 

 

Think about it this way. Lets say 100,000 people play rs a day doing some sort of combat. Each day at least 1 time they get a coin drop from a monster. Each coin drop is at least 50gp. That means each day a Minimum of 5M gp can enter the economy, just from coin drops. This dosent include 500e from randoms, ect.. And thats all just small guestimated numbers, and just 1 drop. The real values would be much higher than this.

 

 

 

 

also, gold leaf and other construction materals(that can only be bought from shops) are stupid expensive.

 

 

 

Again also true, but the higest store item (magic stone) is about 1M. And dont forget these items are typically one time use. You buy one, or a couple and never have to buy any again. Its a small depletion in the large scheme of things.

 

 

 

EDIT: Im not arguing that construction dosent deplete any money at all, or dosent deplete alot of money. My point was that Construction does not deplete as much money as people think from the economy. More proving the point that when people trade items from player to player, money is not being moved out of the economy.

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Flammacor,

 

 

 

 

* The general store takes either a constant amount, a percentage of total available goods, or a percentage of the last update's sold goods (any way is fine) from the Grand Exchange at a minimum prices.

 

 

 

Do you have a source for this assumption? Unless Jagex said this was true, there's really no reason at all to make it. This assumption is the linchpin of your entire argument, and it seems rather absurd. If Jagex really did do this, it would be a horrible decision on their part.

 

 

 

 

I don't have a source. It's an assumption that's based on (what I think is) a reasonable interpretation of the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores. Where do these items appear? It would be "absurd" that Jagex does a whole bunch of work to create randomly appearing items in the general stores, and it would likewise be "absurd" for so many players to sell directly to the general stores at the current awful prices they give.

 

 

 

 

The regular supply and demand curve is thrown out the window when a buyer who buys X amount of goods irrespective of price is introduced.

 

 

 

I'm not sure what you mean, there are already examples of goods with inflexible demand in the real world. Seems to me that adding some inflexibility to the demand in RS might make the curves more similar to the real world demand curves, not less.

 

 

 

 

A regular supply and demand curve in what is called "perfect competition" in economics is an X: the price is determined by the crossing of the supply and demand curve. Each curve determines how much of the product (X-axis) a buyer/seller buys/sells at the given price (Y-axis).

 

 

 

 

 

 

You have a major flaw in your theory.

 

 

 

Your only taking into account that gold enters the economy from the Buy-X.

 

 

 

It also leaves the economy that way too.

 

 

 

I have yet to sell 1 thing to the NPC stores, however I have bought loads of arrows.

 

 

 

While money is entering the economy through the general stores, money is also leaving the economy the same way.

 

 

 

 

I suppose that is possible. However, for these items, wouldn't most players actually buy from the GE, where the price is cheaper than the general store price?

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There are a lot of flaws here basically because it seems you have some problems understanding the "game" variables here that does not exist in real life.

 

 

 

 

 

At the very top top top of my head there is one major thing you are not considering.

 

 

 

When a real life person dies, all his belongings and wealth get transfered over to his family or to the government. So everything he does in the world is still in the world after his death. A world that "add's". The empire state building don't just disappear because the workers that built it died.

 

 

 

Now this is not the case in Runescape. You can talk about money sinks such as construction and repairing barrow armor. But that is nothing compared to the money sink of quitting players.

 

 

 

A player who quits in Runescape don't automatically transfer his belongings onto the hands of people that are still active in the game. But everything he have in his bank, everything he have earned his whole RS life is buried with him. Or just deleted if you like that term better.

 

 

 

:boohoo:

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There are a lot of flaws here basically because it seems you have some problems understanding the "game" variables here that does not exist in real life.

 

 

 

 

That was uncalled for.

 

 

 

 

At the very top top top of my head there is one major thing you are not considering.

 

 

 

When a real life person dies, all his belongings and wealth get transfered over to his family or to the government. So everything he does in the world is still in the world after his death. A world that "add's". The empire state building don't just disappear because the workers that built it died.

 

 

 

Now this is not the case in Runescape. You can talk about money sinks such as construction and repairing barrow armor. But that is nothing compared to the money sink of quitting players.

 

 

 

A player who quits in Runescape don't automatically transfer his belongings onto the hands of people that are still active in the game. But everything he have in his bank, everything he have earned his whole RS life is buried with him. Or just deleted if you like that term better.

 

 

 

:boohoo:

 

 

 

Well, if there is a constant stream of quitters and new players then I suppose that could decrease inflation, but we can only speculate as to how much. It would not halt inflation altogether. You are assuming that each player quits/is banned with a hoard of gold and that's it. However, they also quit with tradable items that are removed from the game.

 

 

 

Regardless, even if each person who quit only had gp in his RS bank account, and each person who entered RS had nothing, then nevertheless the selling of items to stores still raises the average price of said items, simply because the general store would act as an extra fraction of a buyer (and one not concerned about his spending) for (real player) buyer in the game.

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That was uncalled for.

 

 

I'm sorry for the bad wording.

 

 

 

 

Regardless, even if each person who quit only had gp in his RS bank account, and each person who entered RS had nothing, then nevertheless the selling of items to stores still raises the average price of said items, simply because the general store would act as an extra fraction of a buyer (and one not concerned about his spending) for (real player) buyer in the game.

 

 

 

Yes, but you miss the beauty of the system. Lets for the sake of an example use the item. "Rune Full Helm". Some background information on it: It alchs for 21120 gp. It is not sold by any stores in Runescape. It is dropped by various semi-high level monsters. It is a item that is in semi-high demand consider F2P players can use it, and it is their best item for people using melee on the head spot.

 

 

 

Lets say you have 10 of these. You sell 5 of them to the store and get 21120 each thus "creating" more money while the item gets removed. Now the price you got were a fixed price. It will never change.

 

 

 

Lets say prices on the player market goes up because of this "money creation". The average player offers you 30000 for the item, the store still offers you the good ol' 21120. What do you choose? Now with the ease of selling trugh the Grand Exchange you choose the 30k deal. Thus you are not creating any more money.

 

 

 

In the mean time people repair armor and work on some construction. This decrees the money. Prices on helm is now 25k on player market. Still a better deal for you than the shop.

 

 

 

The prices continue to decrees until it hits shop price. Then you rather sell to the shop and that again creates money.

 

 

 

and so on and so on.. perhaps.

 

 

 

Bottom line: If a player deal is better than the shop deal. Players will turn to players, and in the mean time the money sinks in game will yet again stabilize the prices.

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I also think the gold amount in Runescape will decrease.

 

 

 

I don't mind this though as I stopped playing Rs ... who knows I come back in a few years and all the cash which I have in my bank will have increased in "value" significantly

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I don't have a source. It's an assumption that's based on (what I think is) a reasonable interpretation of the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores. Where do these items appear? It would be "absurd" that Jagex does a whole bunch of work to create randomly appearing items in the general stores, and it would likewise be "absurd" for so many players to sell directly to the general stores at the current awful prices they give.

 

 

 

But players have been selling directly to the general stores for years now... just to clear bank space usually, sometimes for items like oak and willow longs because there's nothing else to do with them. So why are you calling it absurd that they would continue to do so? "the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores." The amount of items in the player stock of general stores isn't constant... I'm looking at the amount in Varrock general store change as I type this sentence. It's all obviously stuff that people are selling to clear out space in their banks. Not to mention, that post above that mentions Jagex apparently clearly stated they were not taking items from the GE and putting them in stores. So, this assumption is clearly unfounded, and as your entire argument relied upon it, it's invalid.

 

 

 

 

A regular supply and demand curve in what is called "perfect competition" in economics is an X: the price is determined by the crossing of the supply and demand curve. Each curve determines how much of the product (X-axis) a buyer/seller buys/sells at the given price (Y-axis).

 

 

 

And what effect would a small number of buyers willing to buy at any price have on that graph? It would translate the entire demand curve a small amount to the right. How exactly is that throwing the regular graph out the window?

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I don't have a source. It's an assumption that's based on (what I think is) a reasonable interpretation of the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores. Where do these items appear? It would be "absurd" that Jagex does a whole bunch of work to create randomly appearing items in the general stores, and it would likewise be "absurd" for so many players to sell directly to the general stores at the current awful prices they give.

 

 

 

But players have been selling directly to the general stores for years now... just to clear bank space usually, sometimes for items like oak and willow longs because there's nothing else to do with them. So why are you calling it absurd that they would continue to do so? "the constant amount of items in apparently all general stores." The amount of items in the player stock of general stores isn't constant... I'm looking at the amount in Varrock general store change as I type this sentence. It's all obviously stuff that people are selling to clear out space in their banks. Not to mention, that post above that mentions Jagex apparently clearly stated they were not taking items from the GE and putting them in stores. So, this assumption is clearly unfounded, and as your entire argument relied upon it, it's invalid.

 

 

 

I have seen WAY more than a small amount in varrock. Bars, stacks of armor, etc. I think it remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

 

 

A regular supply and demand curve in what is called "perfect competition" in economics is an X: the price is determined by the crossing of the supply and demand curve. Each curve determines how much of the product (X-axis) a buyer/seller buys/sells at the given price (Y-axis).

 

 

 

And what effect would a small number of buyers willing to buy at any price have on that graph? It would translate the entire demand curve a small amount to the right. How exactly is that throwing the regular graph out the window?

 

 

 

I never said it was a small amount of buyers. Basically under my theory, you have two demand and supply curves. The buyers see the seller curve as it is after the general store is done with it. The sellers see two curves... the one I just mentioned, and the seller/GS curve. The GS curve doesn't move with price, so the "buyer's" curve is a horizontal line. You might be able to combine the curves by combining the slope of both -- one is 0, one is X (somehow) to get the equilibrium point. But, that point is surely above the price without a general store taking stock out.

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I have seen WAY more than a small amount in varrock. Bars, stacks of armor, etc. I think it remains to be seen.

 

 

 

 

I've never seen anything in the general stores after the GE came out that looked any different than before it came out. Bronze bars? Small amounts of bronze-mith armor? Been like that for years. Until I see some actual evidence, then nothing remains to be seen. If you were seeing rune bars and armor in the general store all the time, then I would at least spend some time trying to replicate those findings. The future is always uncertain, but there are millions of incorrect theories out there with zero evidence supporting them, and I don't have time to worry about them.

 

 

 

 

 

I never said it was a small amount of buyers.

 

 

 

Yea, I just added that in there based on the fact that I couldn't find anything unusual in the general store, and it seems therefore unlikely that this is a huge percentage of the market. I mean, it's unlikely that it even exists, but if it did exist, it would be even more unlikely that it were large.

 

 

 

 

 

Basically under my theory, you have two demand and supply curves. The buyers see the seller curve as it is after the general store is done with it. The sellers see two curves... the one I just mentioned, and the seller/GS curve. The GS curve doesn't move with price, so the "buyer's" curve is a horizontal line. You might be able to combine the curves by combining the slope of both -- one is 0, one is X (somehow) to get the equilibrium point. But, that point is surely above the price without a general store taking stock out.

 

 

 

You have an M.A. in economics, and you don't know how to combine two curves that are functions of the same variable?

 

 

 

as you'd defined it, y-axis is price, x-axis is quantity-

 

 

 

one curve is x= f(y), the other is x = g(y), the new curve is.... wait for it...

 

 

 

x = f(y) + g(y)

 

 

 

ta dum!

 

 

 

And you wonder why math majors have bad opinions of econ majors...

 

 

 

bonus points for figuring out why it has to be functions of y for that addition to work in this example

 

 

 

P.S. The GS curve that "doesn't move with price"...that's not a horizontal line, that's a vertical line. Good luck "combining the slope" of that vertical line ~_~

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Yes, you're right, it's a vertical curve. You got me there. I guess I need to leave in shame now.

 

 

 

:wall:

 

 

 

Still, I'm not quite sure about your equation... I'll look at it again later. According to the supply/demand curve, you still have a set price and a set quantity with a vertical curve. In reality, a customer willing to buy at ANY price will pay ANY (infinite) price. :-k

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Each new day, however, the General Stores across Runescape are adding hundreds of millions, if not billions of GP to the economy. Each item that takes time to produce is slowly being affected by this inflation.

 

 

 

This seems to be the core of your argument.. but is it really true? I honestly don't know, but I am skeptical because I can't remember the last time I bothered to sell anything to a general store.

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Each new day, however, the General Stores across Runescape are adding hundreds of millions, if not billions of GP to the economy. Each item that takes time to produce is slowly being affected by this inflation.

 

 

 

This seems to be the core of your argument.. but is it really true? I honestly don't know, but I am skeptical because I can't remember the last time I bothered to sell anything to a general store.

 

 

 

Also, when people buy from the general store it have the opposite effect. Or if you buy from any RS store for that matter.

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