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Draconic Visage..


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#41
Sy_Accursed
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


Yes, there is a drop rate. Do you honestly think that someone who's killed 1000 dragons has the same chance of a visage as one whose killed just one? I know some aspects require some math knowledge that not everyone has to have, but this really is just common sense.



There is a drop rate for everything, if we want to get theoretical, we can say every item has a drop rate to every monster. What is the drop rate of 3 noted dragon full helms from a goblin? one to infinity. What is the drop rate of bones from a chicken? 100% or one to one. Now, if you believe items don't have fixed percentages, that should mean every item is dropped at frequently as each other item. Obviously we don't come out of dust devil assignments with inventories full of dragon chains so that's not true.



However, there is some truth in what you said and that is that a person can kill one dragon and get a visage while another can kill 1000 and get nothing.



There ARE drop rates, but they are based on luck, not "count downs". There was an article released on tip.it VERY recently on this, it was a nice read.





Personally, I'd estimate somewhere between 1 in 2k - 1 in 5k.


I think you attacked him incorrectly.

Drop rates as used in this thread clearly refers to 1 in x kills.
These drop rates are pure myth.

The real drop rates to which you eluded are there when you make a kill you have a 1 in x chance of getting that drop and this doesn't not vary no matter how many you kill your chance of the drop is still 1 in x; where as the myth drop rates suggest as you kill more and don;t get the drop the rate slowly shifts from 1 in x to 1 in 1 or x in x

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#42
Grimy_Bunyip
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

runescape isn't shrodinger's cat <_<
there exists a drop rate.
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#43
The Observer
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Drops are based similarly to a "dice rolling" system. Killing more increases the amount of chance you get of getting that drop because there are more rolls of the die. It's just bad luck if you don't get it after, say, 10,000 kills for example.

A "drop rate" is usually found by figuring out an average. However, it would never be extremely accurate considering the way it works overall so you're better off just to keep killing them for other reasons other than getting a visage (for example: a slayer assignment) so it becomes less tiring.

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#44
Synthox
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Luck does not come into it.



Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.



There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.



Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

Seriously, i need an explanation here,



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#45
xpx
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I think why it's so hard to get an accurate ''drop rate'' figure on dragons is that it's actually a combination of drop rates(dropped along with other specific items, and the drop rates for those aren't universally the same) and that the drops are actually so rare. For a borderline accurate drop rate, one person would have to get 20 visages from the same type of dragon, and at the approximate rate of 10k speculated on the rsof, one would need to kill anywhere from 150k-250k dragons to reach any sort of conclusion. I hadn't got a visage drop in nearly 20k dragons until i got one recently from slaying 10k frost dragons. Slaying for a visage is the stupidest thing ever, as even if you kill 50k dragons, you are still not guaranteed a visage.

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#46
The Observer
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Luck does not come into it.



Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.



There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.



Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

Seriously, i need an explanation here,


Luck is more of a metaphorical term and doesn't exist in reality. It means that you believe that you have more of a chance at getting a specific result.

Chance is the more real variable that exists. For example: If you were to roll two dice... if you picked one number only as a favourable result then you would have less chance of landing on it than if you picked two numbers to equal a favourable result.

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#47
Synthox
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Luck does not come into it.



Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.



There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.



Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

Seriously, i need an explanation here,


Luck is more of a metaphorical term and doesn't exist in reality. It means that you believe that you have more of a chance at getting a specific result.

Chance is the more real variable that exists. For example: If you were to roll two dice... if you picked one number only as a favourable result then you would have less chance of landing on it than if you picked two numbers to equal a favourable result.

Thanks. I really needed a definition.



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#48
Phixcire
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no such thing as a drop rate its stupid luck i got 2 in 1 week one at irons on slay task first 10 kills 2nd was on skeletal wyverns slay task within 20 kills then camped irons for weeks nothing

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#49
Kinosjourney
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Drop rates like 1/2000 is a way to express how rare it is, it's not a 100% that you will get one in a maximum of 2000 kills.


I've killed 2000-3000 iron/steel dragons and not even gotten a Dragon drop.
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#50
Johannas
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I've read a couple of logs, and it's about a 1 in 18,000 chance.

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#51
supercala47
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."



i dont think anyone was claiming a drop rate they just were giving averages they found online
kk?

#52
Storm
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"There is no such thing as a drop rate."
-If you say this, you just don't know what drop rate means.

The drop rate for whips is 1/450. That does NOT mean that exactly every 450th kill yields a whip. It also does NOT mean that you're guaranteed a whip drop if you kill 450 demons.

It means that if you kill ten billion demons, you will, on average, get one whip per 450 kills. It would probably include fifteen consecutive whip drops and and a dry spell of 10k kills. But it would average out at one whip per 450 kills. Because that's the drop rate.

Drop rate does NOT mean that as you near 450 kills, your chance of a whip drop gets better. It does NOT mean that there are cross server wide counters for Abyssal Demon kills that decide when a whip is dropped. This does NOT exist, and it's NOT what drop rate means. This kind of a system would be ridiculous in both concept and implementation.

Every time you kill a demon, it's a roll of the dice. The dice (die? don't know my English) just has 450 sides to it instead of 6.
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#53
zotto
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The probability that you roll dice in this exact sequence:

1-3-2-5-6-1-4-5

is the same as rolling the following sequence:

6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

Although in human perception the first sequence is seen as nothing special, but the second sequence as almost impossible.

Both exact sequences are equally impossible though.

I got to 99 slayer and past without a visage or a shield half.

The probability of the wheel hitting the option of a visage is low. Very very low.


#54
Xanotex
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I've had 2 Visages from Iron Dragons and I'd say you really can't put a correct drop rate on it, I got my first visage after 1k kills, got my second one after 7k kills (6k kills between with no visage, yes I did kill that many and yes I still kill them a lot nowadays). After my second visage I've killed atleast another 3k Iron Dragons which puts me at 10k kills with 2 visages..

They are extremely rare and as someone here said before, just let it surprise you, don't go hunting for one.

Goodluck if you do!

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#55
Triquos
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I definitely think there is a drop rate, after all like others have said previously, people would be coming out of slayer tasks every now and then with inventories of dragon chains from dust devils and a plenty full of whips from abby demons etc.

For me, I think the drop rate of whips from abby demons are roughly 1 in 450. This is because I sometimes get 0, sometimes I get 2-3 from up to 1.5k abby demons. My worst streak was roughly 1.8k abby demons without a whip drop, so I think drop rates exist, jagex just can't say what they are.

I personally think the visage drop rate is 1 in 5k. I've only had 1 in my life and it was from a steel dragon. I've probably killed 10k metal dragons to date, so yeah probably 1 in 5k, that being every kill has a 1 in 5,000 chance, could be less, who knows. I would believe 1 in 2.5k also.
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#56
Mixl
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


Ok I have to get this of my chest. People tend to believe that drop rate means you kill x amount and will get it. Drop rate actually means the chance of getting an item per kill. It's like rolling a dice with let us say 2000 sides. Each kill the dice is cast and you have that 1/2000 chance every kill to get the drop. Without drop rates random drops would not work, because how would the game know how rare it should be if there is not a percentage chance of it dropping?

#57
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No need to post on a topic which has been dead for months.
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