Draconic Visage..

[Phixcire]

yeah its all random and luck i killed less then 10 iron drags in 1 slayer task and got d legs then visage next drop also got 2nd visage few days later at skeletal wyverns less then 20 kills so shame on those slayers that skip them

[Inuashakent]

When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

 

Lol I would add more but everything that needs to be said has been said to this quote.

 

 

 

OP: I thought it was 1/5000?

[hihihi727]

When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

 

 

 

Yes, i agree, when will people learn? Omg its not a hard concept to understand. According to your logic, i am just as likely to get a fire rune from a flesh crawler as i am as getting an abyssal whip from an Abyssal demon. Sure, i'm not guarenteed an abyssal whip at exactly 450kills. But if i collected data from millions of kills, the average rate I would get an abyssal whip would be close to 1 in 450kills. Its like when you roll a dice 6 times you are more likely to get a 6 than no 6. If 1000000 people signed up for lotto and only one person could win, you would have less chance if you only bought a ticket once than you would if you bought a ticked 1000000 times (over the course of several years). Its not a hard concept to understand.

[sadukar123]

Actually you'd have more chances to not get a 6 than a 6. :P

[Seraphi]

When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

 

 

 

Yes, i agree, when will people learn? Omg its not a hard concept to understand. According to your logic, i am just as likely to get a fire rune from a flesh crawler as i am as getting an abyssal whip from an Abyssal demon. Sure, i'm not guarenteed an abyssal whip at exactly 450kills. But if i collected data from millions of kills, the average rate I would get an abyssal whip would be close to 1 in 450kills. Its like when you roll a dice 6 times you are more likely to get a 6 than no 6. If 1000000 people signed up for lotto and only one person could win, you would have less chance if you only bought a ticket once than you would if you bought a ticked 1000000 times (over the course of several years). Its not a hard concept to understand.

 

....What?

 

You just condradicted yourself by supplying the "Average drop rate" of a whip...

[jakerules208]

don't think about those they are uber rare I had a bunch of iron drags hoping for one. Then I gave up another iron task I just did it anyway 2 kills in I had 4 blue charms 5 soul runes and a vissage \

[Robert_R]

I don't think there are drop rates, I got a dragon claw split in one kill of duoing tormented demons. And 0 drops, not even a shard, after 150+ solo kills.

[sadukar123]

I don't think there are drop rates, I got a dragon claw split in one kill of duoing tormented demons. And 0 drops, not even a shard, after 150+ solo kills.

 

That relates how? :roll: You are just unlucky, can't blame it on anything.

[essiw]

keep it ontopic, this should be about the drop rate (or chance) from the draconic visage not what drop rate means...

[bewareitsandrew]

I'm not going to go into big scary math like other people...

 

 

 

I say to just wait and keep killing... I say you get a drop when you least expect it ;)

[Anzu]

i think the visage drop depends actualy on how many times that dragon has been killed, so that may explain how people 'some times' get their visage on their first kill, so who knows? maybe that dragon has been killed oh lets say 1.9k times? maybe it shows how then you come in, kill it, and get visage, so it would say the dragon HAS been KILLED TWO THOUSAND times wouldnt it?

 

I agree with this concept a little. I've been at cave horrors thinking about drop rates and that it is possible that a monster spawn has it's drop rate and that when killed it'll drop it's drop (ofc) and then when it spawns it's drop spawns with that particular monster. so the drop rate would come into play when the monster spawns. and i've thought of a way that wealth could work with this as well, as the drop could be 1 herb and x coins, and the wealth affect what kind of herb and how man coins out of that monsters coin drop range. so when a kbd is about to spawn it's drop rate works and it's holding w/e items it's going to drop for that kill. so before the lucky kid that comes onto kbd's turf 1 kills him and get's the vissy drop, a group of people could have been killing all day or something, and that worlds kbd spawns with the vissy drop after they had left.

 

Idk i just was thinking of possibilities while killing cave horrors for black masks, and go in some trips with 10 kill or 5 kills and get a black mask, then sit there for 200+ kills after that same world and get jack.

[yuriqiu]

I've gotten 70-99 range on black dragons and 99 slayer and have yet to seen a visage. My advise is don't dwell on it. If you're lucky you'll get one but trying to go after it off a kill is just foolish

[Quyneax]

There is no need for Jagex to make an across-server fixed drop rate. So many people kill visage-droppers (or anything that drops rare, valuable stuff) that the Power of Math averages it all out for them.

[Troacctid]

Its just like a roulette table, but with extra roulettes in it.

 

The 1st roulette has common drops such as gold. To get a rare item, you need to get a certain number. (The chance could be something like 1 in 500*)

 

Then, you move on to the second roulette. You WILL still have common drops on this roulette. The only difference is that some of them now have drops like visage and d legs.

 

The chance on this table is something like 1 in 500* for d legs and 1 in 1000* for visage.

 

So, the TOTAL chances of you getting a visage would be 1 in 5000*. This means that THEORETICALLY you will have to kill 5000* dragons to get a visage. (Score a certain number in Roulette 1 AND Roulette 2) But, this is not perfect as you are ASSUMING that you are score every single combination on the roulettes.

 

*The numbers I use as examples and are not necessarily correct.

 

The ring of wealth increases your chances of getting into Roulette 2.

 

I have gotten a visage before, based on sheer LUCK. I was doing an iron dragon task then. I have killed less than 300 dragons in my whole runescape life.

So...you pretty much just made all this up, am I right? :ugeek:

 

Your theory is interesting but incorrect. The visage is more likely part of a separate drop table entirely, like charms--we can reasonably infer this because it's dropped in addition to the normal drop, not instead of it. And the ring of wealth definitely doesn't work the way you think it does.

[blakdragon39]

If what Jagex told us is fairly accurate, drops really are more like a roulette wheel (or dice). So the 1/6 example is the perfect one.

[Sy_Accursed]

When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

 

Yes, there is a drop rate. Do you honestly think that someone who's killed 1000 dragons has the same chance of a visage as one whose killed just one? I know some aspects require some math knowledge that not everyone has to have, but this really is just common sense.

 

 

 

There is a drop rate for everything, if we want to get theoretical, we can say every item has a drop rate to every monster. What is the drop rate of 3 noted dragon full helms from a goblin? one to infinity. What is the drop rate of bones from a chicken? 100% or one to one. Now, if you believe items don't have fixed percentages, that should mean every item is dropped at frequently as each other item. Obviously we don't come out of dust devil assignments with inventories full of dragon chains so that's not true.

 

 

 

However, there is some truth in what you said and that is that a person can kill one dragon and get a visage while another can kill 1000 and get nothing.

 

 

 

There ARE drop rates, but they are based on luck, not "count downs". There was an article released on tip.it VERY recently on this, it was a nice read.

 

 

 

 

 

Personally, I'd estimate somewhere between 1 in 2k - 1 in 5k.

 

I think you attacked him incorrectly.

 

Drop rates as used in this thread clearly refers to 1 in x kills.

These drop rates are pure myth.

 

The real drop rates to which you eluded are there when you make a kill you have a 1 in x chance of getting that drop and this doesn't not vary no matter how many you kill your chance of the drop is still 1 in x; where as the myth drop rates suggest as you kill more and don;t get the drop the rate slowly shifts from 1 in x to 1 in 1 or x in x

[Grimy_Bunyip]

When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

runescape isn't shrodinger's cat <_<

there exists a drop rate.

[The Observer]

Drops are based similarly to a "dice rolling" system. Killing more increases the amount of chance you get of getting that drop because there are more rolls of the die. It's just bad luck if you don't get it after, say, 10,000 kills for example.

 

A "drop rate" is usually found by figuring out an average. However, it would never be extremely accurate considering the way it works overall so you're better off just to keep killing them for other reasons other than getting a visage (for example: a slayer assignment) so it becomes less tiring.

[Synthox]

Luck does not come into it.

 

 

 

Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.

 

 

 

There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.

 

 

 

Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

 

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

 

Seriously, i need an explanation here,

[xpx]

I think why it's so hard to get an accurate ''drop rate'' figure on dragons is that it's actually a combination of drop rates(dropped along with other specific items, and the drop rates for those aren't universally the same) and that the drops are actually so rare. For a borderline accurate drop rate, one person would have to get 20 visages from the same type of dragon, and at the approximate rate of 10k speculated on the rsof, one would need to kill anywhere from 150k-250k dragons to reach any sort of conclusion. I hadn't got a visage drop in nearly 20k dragons until i got one recently from slaying 10k frost dragons. Slaying for a visage is the stupidest thing ever, as even if you kill 50k dragons, you are still not guaranteed a visage.

[The Observer]

Luck does not come into it.

 

 

 

Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.

 

 

 

There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.

 

 

 

Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

 

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

 

Seriously, i need an explanation here,

 

Luck is more of a metaphorical term and doesn't exist in reality. It means that you believe that you have more of a chance at getting a specific result.

 

Chance is the more real variable that exists. For example: If you were to roll two dice... if you picked one number only as a favourable result then you would have less chance of landing on it than if you picked two numbers to equal a favourable result.

[Synthox]

Luck does not come into it.

 

 

 

Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.

 

 

 

There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.

 

 

 

Play roulette and learn about chance.

Could someone explain the difference between luck and chance?

 

There's a chance you will get a 00 in roulette. You get lucky if you get a 00- in roulette.

 

Seriously, i need an explanation here,

 

Luck is more of a metaphorical term and doesn't exist in reality. It means that you believe that you have more of a chance at getting a specific result.

 

Chance is the more real variable that exists. For example: If you were to roll two dice... if you picked one number only as a favourable result then you would have less chance of landing on it than if you picked two numbers to equal a favourable result.

Thanks. I really needed a definition.

[Phixcire]

no such thing as a drop rate its stupid luck i got 2 in 1 week one at irons on slay task first 10 kills 2nd was on skeletal wyverns slay task within 20 kills then camped irons for weeks nothing

[Kinosjourney]

Drop rates like 1/2000 is a way to express how rare it is, it's not a 100% that you will get one in a maximum of 2000 kills.

 

 

I've killed 2000-3000 iron/steel dragons and not even gotten a Dragon drop.

[Johannas]

I've read a couple of logs, and it's about a 1 in 18,000 chance.