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Draconic Visage..


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#1
gorgoroth
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gorgoroth

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I know its hard to estimate the drop rate, but can anyone give me a random visage drop rate at Iron Dragons?

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#2
konkar
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1 out of 2k kills.



Random guess. \<img src=/' />

~ K O N K A R ~ Konkar Jr ~ X Konkar X
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#3
gorgoroth
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1 out of 2k kills.



Random guess. \<img src=/' />


Scary thing is, this might actually be accurate :ohnoes:

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#4
mister_moocky
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."
quit

#5
Allbot
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


lol true "drop rates" are very inaccurate, btw i wouldnt camp at iron dragons expecting a visage, they are pretty rare just let one suprise u.

#6
Lets_3ekout
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


Yes, there is a drop rate. Do you honestly think that someone who's killed 1000 dragons has the same chance of a visage as one whose killed just one? I know some aspects require some math knowledge that not everyone has to have, but this really is just common sense.



There is a drop rate for everything, if we want to get theoretical, we can say every item has a drop rate to every monster. What is the drop rate of 3 noted dragon full helms from a goblin? one to infinity. What is the drop rate of bones from a chicken? 100% or one to one. Now, if you believe items don't have fixed percentages, that should mean every item is dropped at frequently as each other item. Obviously we don't come out of dust devil assignments with inventories full of dragon chains so that's not true.



However, there is some truth in what you said and that is that a person can kill one dragon and get a visage while another can kill 1000 and get nothing.



There ARE drop rates, but they are based on luck, not "count downs". There was an article released on tip.it VERY recently on this, it was a nice read.





Personally, I'd estimate somewhere between 1 in 2k - 1 in 5k.
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#7
RangingRoy
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Luck does not come into it.



Chance, is the main factor. Luck suggests there is some control, in any form, over chance.



There IS a drop rate, i'd imagine roughly 1/2000. It doesn't mean that after you kill 2k, you automatically get a visage, nor does it mean if you get one on your first drag you won't get one till 2001 kills.



Play roulette and learn about chance.

#8
Klugsi
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lets say its chances are 1 in 2k kills



means that u have a 1:2000 chance in every single kill

no matter if u killed 1 or 5k dragons its allways a chance of 1:2000



or in other words: its exactly 1 kill - just might take a while to get that lol

#9
diib
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


There is a drop rate.

When rolling dice, there is no counter that decides "oh, you've rolled the dice X times, better roll a 6 now."

Nevertheless, the "drop rate" of rolling a 6 is exactly 1/6.
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#10
Zimbu
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Yes, for any single occurance (X)=visage drop the chance of getting a visage drop is the same, but when you get for example 500 kills the chance of you getting one or more visages is higher than from the one kill. Drop rate refers to the chance of getting a visage drop in one kill. With it you can calculate estimates for the expected value of visage drop amount E(X) or the probability of getting one or more visages in for example 500 kills using high school probability theory.



I know some aspects require some math knowledge that not everyone has to have, but this really is just common sense.



There is a drop rate for everything, if we want to get theoretical, we can say every item has a drop rate to every monster. What is the drop rate of 3 noted dragon full helms from a goblin? one to infinity.




Infinity is a consept and it cannot be used with any mathematical operators. The symbols of +, -, x, and / are arithmetic operators, and can only be used for numbers. To write 1/infinity and mean "1 divided by or to infinity" makes about as much sence as 1/freedom. 1 cannot be divided by a concept. It can only be divided by a number. And if you were using 1 to infinity as shorthand for lim x->infinity (1/x), then 1/infinity is 0.



Edit: Got quote tags wrong
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#11
Cptbaker08
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Infinity is a consept and it cannot be used with any mathematical operators. The symbols of +, -, x, and / are arithmetic operators, and can only be used for numbers. To write 1/infinity and mean "1 divided by or to infinity" makes about as much sence as 1/freedom. 1 cannot be divided by a concept. It can only be divided by a number. And if you were using 1 to infinity as shorthand for lim x->infinity (1/x), then 1/infinity is 0.




AWWWW the calculus hurts mai brain!



Also knowing the drop % doesn't help you in any way, shape or form of actualy getting the drop.

Best to go, start killing and hope for the best, and like it was said let it surprise you.
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#12
ilovecardj
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1 in 5k-10k chance prolly. 2k is very low. maybe 2k for wyverns/miths/kbd


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#13
Orly_Owl
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Its not a drop rate.. It's a ratio p/drop?

#14
Exodus_Flesh
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1 in 5k-10k chance prolly. 2k is very low. maybe 2k for wyverns/miths/kbd




I believe it was stated.. All Visage dropping dragons have the same drop rate? Not quite sure, but I know I've heard this.
~Zackdt

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#15
tongobongo
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my guess would be around 1/8000



When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."

idiot. There is such a thing as drop rate. Though people misinterpret it as meaning every time you don't get a good drop your probability of getting one the next time improves. The chance of getting a visage on a single kill is always the same.



If you were to try to calculate the probability of getting a visage in 8000 kills using 1/8000 as the theoretical drop rate you could just take the chance of not getting 7999/8000 multiplied by itself by the number of kills your doing. The chance of not getting a visage in 8000 kills if the drop rate is 1/8000 is (7999/8000)^8000=0.367856448 Take (1-0.367856448)*100 to get the percent change of getting a visage in 8000 kills. ~63.2% If you were to kill 4000 without a drop you should not expect 63.2% chance of getting them on your next 4000. That is a common misconception among RS players.



You are never guaranteed a drop no matter how many you kill. Since the drop rate is so small the best anyone can do is provide a guess.

#16
wioneo
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."


There is a drop rate.

When rolling dice, there is no counter that decides "oh, you've rolled the dice X times, better roll a 6 now."

Nevertheless, the "drop rate" of rolling a 6 is exactly 1/6.




This is honestly the BEST answer to a topic like this tha I have ever seen. The simplicity of the example makes it easy enough to understand for *almost* anyone who will read this thread, and I think that you may have just slightly decreased the total amount of general ignorance in the world.



gj

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#17
bogwaga
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When well people learn? There is no such thing as a drop rate. There never was. Someone who's killed 1 vs someone who's killed 1000 has no less chance of getting a visage. There is no kill counter that decides "oh, you've killed X ammount, better give you a drop."




There is a drop rate, your just misunderstanding what it represents. Sure someone at their 200,000th kill is just as likely to get one in their next kill as someone killing one for the first time, but if that doesn't mean there is no drop rate. If there were no drop rates for any items, then wouldn't Visages be dropping just as often as Rune Limbs? And plus, Jagex said when talking about Rings of Wealth, that wheels are spun in order to determine drops, meaning that there is a certain chance of getting a drop each time you get a kill.



But on topic, yeah, I've heard the drop rate is anywhere from like 2k - 4k.
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#18
Benjamin6264
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I believe that there -could- be a predetermined ratio of drops per amount of kills, but that that ratio would be on all the servers at the same time, with all the monsters at the same time.



For example, if Bandos tassets drop from general graardor every 150 kills, after 149 kills all the servers make together, the next monster spawn will hold bandos tassets. It is random since nobody can predict it.



That is just a hypotesis, althought.

#19
slimshot
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i think the visage drop depends actualy on how many times that dragon has been killed, so that may explain how people 'some times' get their visage on their first kill, so who knows? maybe that dragon has been killed oh lets say 1.9k times? maybe it shows how then you come in, kill it, and get visage, so it would say the dragon HAS been KILLED TWO THOUSAND times wouldnt it?

#20
The_Fray
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i think the visage drop depends actualy on how many times that dragon has been killed, so that may explain how people 'some times' get their visage on their first kill, so who knows? maybe that dragon has been killed oh lets say 1.9k times? maybe it shows how then you come in, kill it, and get visage, so it would say the dragon HAS been KILLED TWO THOUSAND times wouldnt it?


Based on what Jagex has told us about drop rates, I dont think you are right.




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