Dragon Claw's Demise

[BladeDragon]

I guess you're right on that.

 

 

 

I mean look at how some items are.

 

 

 

The most expencive item in the game is the Christmas Cracker and thats worth well over 555M.

 

 

 

I wonder who the lucky few that still own any.

[Ned]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

[Patr1ck]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

I hope more people will go :mrgreen:

[Star_Fox]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

[Ned]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

 

 

 

What is their General Store price? Do they not protect over many PvP items (rune/scimitars/etc)?

[Patr1ck]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

 

 

 

What is their General Store price? Do they not protect over many PvP items (rune/scimitars/etc)?

 

 

 

It's high alch price is is 50k. It protects over the standard pk gear, (rune legs, plate, helm of neitznot) but it doesn't protect over a d scim, whip, or even d long.

[Ned]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

 

 

 

What is their General Store price? Do they not protect over many PvP items (rune/scimitars/etc)?

 

 

 

It's high alch price is is 50k. It protects over the standard pk gear, (rune legs, plate, helm of neitznot) but it doesn't protect over a d scim, whip, or even d long.

 

 

 

Well there you have an obvious con. And many pjers I see with claws use Ahrims + Ice blitz + claw specs, so if they die, good fight.

[Silver_Corner]

[hide=]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

 

 

 

What is their General Store price? Do they not protect over many PvP items (rune/scimitars/etc)?

 

 

 

It's high alch price is is 50k. It protects over the standard pk gear, (rune legs, plate, helm of neitznot) but it doesn't protect over a d scim, whip, or even d long.

[/hide]

 

 

 

Well there you have an obvious con. And many pjers I see with claws use Ahrims + Ice blitz + claw specs, so if they die, good fight.

 

 

 

Ahrims actually only alchs for about 30k on the most expensive parts. So I believe claws keep over them, which is why they are so wildly used with arhims instead of plain mystic, aside from mage bonuses for the blitz spec combo.

 

 

 

EDIT: Actually, taking another look, Ahrims only alchs for 30k, while mystic alchs for like 70k, Why is that? O.o That would explain why people use ahrims instead of any other mage armor.

[Soma2035]

Claws will follow the same path of any (useful) items on the G.E. They will crash eventually, due to merchants, but that is still a long way off.

 

 

 

The way it will happen:

 

- Claws will continue to rise until they reach the "market price" of junk traders.

 

- Once it reaches "market price" The claws will all suddenly be sold in G.E. making the G.E. price skyrocket.

 

- Merchants will see this and start to buy them pushing the price up very high (Anyone recall the ZGS [bleep]e to 60m?)

 

- One or a few merchants will start to dump them at very high prices, this leads to panic, everyone tries to sell.

 

- The price in G.E. cant keep up with the speed of people selling for lower prices, people start to junk trade them for lower prices.

 

- G.E. Stops being used for selling and they become Junk trade only with a super high G.E. price.

 

 

 

It will take months if not longer for them to finally settle down to a natural price. Think how long GS's have been out in the game, and their more common, and STILL not stable? I wouldn't count on anything being stable with these for a long time either.

 

 

 

This is not quite accurate, to be honest. It seems you are heavily biased against junk trades, from the tone of your post.

 

 

 

- Claws continue to rise slowly, but steadily. As they are rising, the street price falls to meet it, because in reality, junk is not worthless. However, the change in street price happens in bursts rather than steadily like the GE price.

 

 

 

- At one point, the GE price will be high enough to prompt people to sell their dragon claws (if desired). This is the point where the hassle of junk trading, + the potential value of their junk is not worth the extra profit.

 

 

 

- Since people are beginning to sell, it's likely they'll get maximum price. The price will still raise, although dragon claws have become slightly easier to purchase. At this point, several things will happen:

 

1) Players who want to own Dragon Claws will realize they are available now, and some will purchase Dragon Claws.

 

2) People who have wanted to sell Dragon Claws, but haven't been willing to risk BH trades, and were too lazy to bother with other trade methods, will now be able to sell.

 

3) Merchants who noticed that Dragon Claws have hit "equilibrium" (in quotes, because this isn't quite true as I'll explain), will likely try to dump their claws and claim the profit they earned.

 

 

 

- These three things happening simultaneously will have various results. This heavily depends on the price at which this will occur (likely around 15 - 25M).

 

1) Those people who want to own Dragon Claws may find themselves unable to afford it, or that its not worth the hefty price. The amount of people who will purchase them reduces. The higher the price, the less likely they'll be able to and choose to pay.

 

2) Most people who have held Dragon Claws from drops or lucky purchases early on will probably sell. The few people "on the fence" will reconsider, but that amount is minor.

 

3) Merchants will react in various ways. It's very hard to predict these, because there are so many organizations, and they seem to conflict with each other. Some will contribute to the increased supply, but it is hard to predict how many.

 

 

 

The results:

 

1) Demand > Supply. This is, in my opinion, the best case scenario for the market as a whole. The price stabilized at a low enough point that enough people still want and can afford them. The huge built up stock mostly goes away. The price will still increase slowly, but it'll stop shortly after. The amount withheld by merchants will soon be released as well when they realize there is no gain. Depending on how much was withheld, a slight plunge may occur, but that's it.

 

2) Demand = Supply. This is the theoretical best case scenario. All the claws dropped into the market are bought up. Unfortunately, this doesn't take into account the withheld supply. The price will increase more, demand is satisfied perfectly, but this amount will throw it out of balance once more. The results will be similar to the first scenario, although it is more likely for the dip to occur.

 

3) Demand < Supply. This is the worst case scenario, but unfortunately, also the most likely scenario.

 

 

 

- In situations 1 and 2, the market is happy and we can accept it as another normal item and move on. In situation 3, the market will certainly plunge. This will immediately cause a panic, and even some people happy with their dragon claws will want to sell, which will make the market fall faster. However, if supply increases faster than demand can increase in the short term, the price will become "stuck". Then you have dragon claws as junk.

 

 

 

In essence, your original summary was one of the possible outcomes. However, it is not the fault of merchants. It is more the fault of the GE system itself. Jagex has failed continuously to provide us with up-to-date, accurate prices for goods that we want to buy.

 

 

 

Junk trading is neither the fault or merchants nor the fault of RWTers. Junk trading is caused solely by the GE, and any problems tied to junk trading can also be tied directly to the poor design of the grand exchange. If the price becomes stuck the other way, it is because Jagex's system is a failure and can not follow the market fluctuations.

[Silver_Corner]

@ above ^

 

 

 

While some of that may be true, your skipping the main point of my post, which was the interaction between merchants and themselves.

 

 

 

The huge abnormal price hikes are not from merchants buying from normal sellers, but rather merchants buying from merchants.

 

 

 

When the price reaches "equilibrium" it will be on the rise from its previous advance from normal sellers. This will not happen overnight and merchants will slowly step in the door until its merchant vs. merchant as I explain below. As the price will slowly be on the rise, merchants are not going to "dump" at lowest prices. They will either put at mid, or highest (since the price is already rising). Some may put at lowest, but I guarantee most wont.

 

 

 

The Point I was trying to make:

 

 

 

Now, the kicker is when merchants start buying from themselves. Merchant clans buy out the stock, raise up the price, and other group does the same. This pushes the price high high well above any normal demand would be for the item.

 

 

 

Example is last years rise of the ZGS. It was a rare and junk traded item. Merchants decided to use clans to raise the price. Other merchants got on the band wagon and bought from each other. In one week it rose from 30m to 60m, and then was un-tradeable on the G.E until it crashed. Its a repeat of the same concept.

 

 

 

As for the G.E. System, I do blame junk trading on the clan merchants, because it is a direct result of their manipulation. Merchants buying from merchants creates a FALSE demand for an item in the G.E., one that should not normally exist. If this did not occur, prices in G.E. would fluctuate according to the real demand/supply of an item and junk trading would not occur.

 

 

 

Because a false demand is made, prices become so askew that players need "junk" to justify an equal trading, because merchant clans put the price out of the range it should normally be in. That is a fault of the G.E. system yes, but it is also the fault of the merchants for manipulating prices higher (or lower) than they should be.

 

 

 

If the price becomes stuck the other way, it is because Jagex's system is a failure and can not follow the market fluctuations.

 

Its actually the opposite. It's because the G.E. follows all the market fluctuations, including the "false demands" set by merchants buying/selling from merchants.

 

False demand/Supply = False price = No use of the G.E. = Static Price = Junk Trades

 

 

 

Jagex need to put caps and limit the number of higher level items even more in trading such as buying 1 GS per day, but that's another story for another topic.

 

 

 

Aside Claws are to good of a PvP weapon to crash low G.E. If they do crash in price on the G.E. people will just go to junk trading again, and the cycle will repeat itself. If they are un-buyable high on the G.E. people junk trade low, and they turn into a party hat scenario.

 

 

 

Either situation, once they go on sale through the G.E., they wont be there for long before clans either take the price out of control, or its pushed down and they need junk to be traded again.

[Soma2035]

@ above ^

 

 

 

While some of that may be true, your skipping the main point of my post, which was the interaction between merchants and themselves.

 

 

 

The huge abnormal price hikes are not from merchants buying from normal sellers, but rather merchants buying from merchants.

 

 

 

When the price reaches "equilibrium" it will be on the rise from its previous advance from normal sellers. This will not happen overnight and merchants will slowly step in the door until its merchant vs. merchant as I explain below. As the price will slowly be on the rise, merchants are not going to "dump" at lowest prices. They will either put at mid, or highest (since the price is already rising). Some may put at lowest, but I guarantee most wont.

 

 

 

The Point I was trying to make:

 

 

 

Now, the kicker is when merchants start buying from themselves. Merchant clans buy out the stock, raise up the price, and other group does the same. This pushes the price high high well above any normal demand would be for the item.

 

 

 

Example is last years rise of the ZGS. It was a rare and junk traded item. Merchants decided to use clans to raise the price. Other merchants got on the band wagon and bought from each other. In one week it rose from 30m to 60m, and then was un-tradeable on the G.E until it crashed. Its a repeat of the same concept.

 

 

 

As for the G.E. System, I do blame junk trading on the clan merchants, because it is a direct result of their manipulation. Merchants buying from merchants creates a FALSE demand for an item in the G.E., one that should not normally exist. If this did not occur, prices in G.E. would fluctuate according to the real demand/supply of an item and junk trading would not occur.

 

 

 

Because a false demand is made, prices become so askew that players need "junk" to justify an equal trading, because merchant clans put the price out of the range it should normally be in. That is a fault of the G.E. system yes, but it is also the fault of the merchants for manipulating prices higher (or lower) than they should be.

 

 

 

If the price becomes stuck the other way, it is because Jagex's system is a failure and can not follow the market fluctuations.

 

Its actually the opposite. It's because the G.E. follows all the market fluctuations, including the "false demands" set by merchants buying/selling from merchants.

 

False demand/Supply = False price = No use of the G.E. = Static Price = Junk Trades

 

 

 

Jagex need to put caps and limit the number of higher level items even more in trading such as buying 1 GS per day, but that's another story for another topic.

 

 

 

Aside Claws are to good of a PvP weapon to crash low G.E. If they do crash in price on the G.E. people will just go to junk trading again, and the cycle will repeat itself. If they are un-buyable high on the G.E. people junk trade low, and they turn into a party hat scenario.

 

 

 

Either situation, once they go on sale through the G.E., they wont be there for long before clans either take the price out of control, or its pushed down and they need junk to be traded again.

 

 

 

I can see many flaws in your post, but I am not going to bother responding to each for the simple reason that you do not understand the concept of supply and demand.

 

 

 

The fundamental law of supply and demand states only that the true market price is the price at which an equal amount of people are willing to sell and buy the good.

 

 

 

It does NOT take into account intent. If Jagex's system can not react to what you've called "false" demand, then it is obviously not following supply and demand and therefore it is flawed.

[Dexek]

Hmm.. an item that is fun to use, in short supply, in great demand, and has low requirements. Well, I believe they'll just continue to rise. The only thing that I believe would/will kill dragon claws is a nice sudden update. Will that happen? Will we recieve warning? Who wants to be a Millionaire? Who will be the ultimate Survivor? Where'd these television references come from?

 

 

 

It's really a toss up based on what we currently have vs. what updates we will receive in the future. If we were never to get an update again, then I'd have to say they'd keep on rising. :

[walka92]

the td's were supposedly made harder and uncampable but ive maxed 42 in a trip....

 

and my claws arent as good as i hoped. i hope they keep going up on ge more so i can sell at a good price

[canu44]

Dragon claw's High alchemy price is approximately 84k,

 

 

 

it saves over whip, i had skull on, used item protect prayer and looked at what i would lose if i die and it only showed dragon claws. I usually Whip than take out dragon claws knowing that i would never lose them unless i get something like dragon battleaxe as drop, as they are higher dragon claws i believe,

 

 

 

and by the way i have maxed around 32 kills in a trip at tormented demons with 100 titan construction scrolls and only a turtle full of food. If it was with a unicorn i could last way more. There is one specific safe spot that you can lure by just take 4 steps and coming back to it. and other tormented demons usually do not hit you. as they get stuck behind my tormented demon who i fight. and when dead the other demon just comes and i keep on the onslaught.

 

 

 

if you ever gone to a pvp world you will see how many people have dragon claws. Its commonly hoarded items as NO ONE WILL SELL even for 20 mil nowadays. They want the highest price possible and as a fact keeps the market price as high as they are. I would estimate the street price right now is only 60mil with junk as junk itself has value. It so common that i myself have gotten 6 already from it and all cept one have been traded in for 3a range, and melee, and magic, as i commonly use them nowadays as 3a range itself has a higher defence than Karil making it way better.

 

 

 

The updates just of nerfing tormented demons only made it tiny bit harder, but it also made less people come to safespot. i barely hop looking for a safespot.

 

 

 

 

 

Dragon claws themselves can never be set price. if it ever gets 30 mil it will again jump because of these reasons:

 

1. People seeing they wont have to do raw wild pies or opulent trades will start buying them out

 

2. It is easy enough to get potentially 5mil an hour at pvp using these. So you can get back your cash in no time.(i have gotten 3x guthan's spear and one dfs, and infinite other dag/dragon drops.. i had wasted over 40+ hours just skilling in hotspot/other spots to gain potential)

 

3. Merchanters will also buy them out knowing they would rise.

 

 

 

basically they can infinitely rise till 60mil because it is almost 2x faster than ags and with almost .9 of same k0 potential. They themselves have limited number of people who can get them as few percentage has done wgs.

 

 

 

They will only stop rising and stop at 30mil after Jagex has killed Pjing in the pvp worlds. As i know jagex they will DO this if there is no real pvp fighting in pvp worlds because of 5 d claw pjers waiting to finish one real pvper off.

 

 

 

i

[walka92]

Tormented Demons are really easy to camp tbh. After the "nerf" of TDs, a lot of people gave up without seeing for themselves what it was like. Eventually, they will come back, and more claws will enter the game.

 

 

 

Brianite3 sums up what will happen quite well. ;)

 

 

 

 

 

claws are also leaving the game due to people using it at pvp and dieing with it. because it is effective at pjing, the lucky players who can afford claws brings it without risking millions on street price.

 

 

 

What is their General Store price? Do they not protect over many PvP items (rune/scimitars/etc)?

 

 

 

It's high alch price is is 50k. It protects over the standard pk gear, (rune legs, plate, helm of neitznot) but it doesn't protect over a d scim, whip, or even d long.

 

actually, it protects whip, veracs helm, barrow gloves...

 

 

they protect over alot of things, your not likely to lose them on death

[canu44]

yep i checked with rogue's den value and its

 

 

 

82,000 coins high alch price

[Patr1ck]

Then tip.it is wrong :shock:

[totalpwnage]

walka, that can't possibly be right. Vesta and Statius protect over veracs. Even when its degraded... unless all that pvp armour is corrupt.

 

 

 

Yeah, claws alch 82k, meaning a lot of things protect over it. They protect over whips (which are like... 76k or something) but not over much else.

[walka92]

walka, that can't possibly be right. Vesta and Statius protect over veracs. Even when its degraded... unless all that pvp armour is corrupt.

 

 

 

Yeah, claws alch 82k, meaning a lot of things protect over it. They protect over whips (which are like... 76k or something) but not over much else.

 

yeah its corrupt, so? anyway, not like it matters. hardly anyone uses vest or stat anywere