grizlysword Posted December 3, 2009 Share Posted December 3, 2009 Lets say the odds of any monster to drop something is 1/10. (10%). on average you will get the item if you kill the monster 10 times. (and 10 of the item for 100 kills) unfortunatly this is not true and will be different for everyone. someone may get it on first kill while others will get it on the 10th. you may find people who get 2 or more and others who gets 0 The answer is its 100% random. and if you kill a dragon 1 million times the rate for each kill will not change, but its likely that you will get an item eventually, what i assume is that the game will pick a number and based on that you will (or not sometimes too) get a certain drop (including all drops not 100% - that monster drops) some items just have higher rates than others so they show up more and are worht less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RangingRoy Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 I'm starting to think that RS drops ARN'T entirely random. Has anyone noticed that often, when at a herb dropper etc, you will get say... 5 rarer herbs in 10 kills... then a dry streak for the next half hour you are there? Not to mention, the number of times that someone has gone "scim!" at fires, and very very shortly after, I have also gotten the drop. I understand stats, and I understand that you remember when it does happen, and forget when it doesn't, but I still feel it happens an innordinate amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mecakoto Posted December 4, 2009 Share Posted December 4, 2009 I'm starting to think that RS drops ARN'T entirely random. Has anyone noticed that often, when at a herb dropper etc, you will get say... 5 rarer herbs in 10 kills... then a dry streak for the next half hour you are there? Not to mention, the number of times that someone has gone "scim!" at fires, and very very shortly after, I have also gotten the drop. I understand stats, and I understand that you remember when it does happen, and forget when it doesn't, but I still feel it happens an innordinate amount. You are seeing it because you are looking for it. That is all. The challenge of a mistake is not to avoid it. The challenge of a mistake is dealing with the outcome. Proud of who I am and what I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
siim Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 My thought is that it's not random at all. My thought is based on this weeks experiences and I have picture proof, if anyone wants to see.On monday, me and 2 friends went to arma on a certain world. We crashed a team of 4 and sniped their hilt, after that we got no kills there lol. We hopped to another world, got crashed there and then hopped again. In the third world we got another hilt. Called it a night some time later.On tuesday I didn't go to arma, but one of the friends went with a friend of his as a duo. They started the trip on the same world as we had done the day before (where we got our 1'st hilt that day) and they got a duo hilt. It was basically 24 hours later. They ran out of supplies shortly after and didn't make it to the other "hilt-world".On wednesday I went to arma again with the same guy who got the duo hilt. Again we started the trip on the same world around the same time and also with a crash. We AGAIN managed to snipe the hilt thanks to some extreme potions. After that we hardly got kills and hopped. Next up we headed for the other "hilt-world" but we had to get killcount again and after that we decided to smoke for 5 also. Just when we we're about to go in, the team that was there started cheering, we already knew what had happened- they got a hilt. On thursday there was a game update (the prayer one), we decided to go to arma again and get yet another hilt. We headed off to the same world again but in the end after a long trip (160 kc trio) we got bored and left with a helm split only. We blame it on the update. My point is that the servers MIGHT have certain "drop times". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenshinjapan Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 My thought is that it's not random at all. My thought is based on this weeks experiences and I have picture proof, if anyone wants to see.On monday, me and 2 friends went to arma on a certain world. We crashed a team of 4 and sniped their hilt, after that we got no kills there lol. We hopped to another world, got crashed there and then hopped again. In the third world we got another hilt. Called it a night some time later.On tuesday I didn't go to arma, but one of the friends went with a friend of his as a duo. They started the trip on the same world as we had done the day before (where we got our 1'st hilt that day) and they got a duo hilt. It was basically 24 hours later. They ran out of supplies shortly after and didn't make it to the other "hilt-world".On wednesday I went to arma again with the same guy who got the duo hilt. Again we started the trip on the same world around the same time and also with a crash. We AGAIN managed to snipe the hilt thanks to some extreme potions. After that we hardly got kills and hopped. Next up we headed for the other "hilt-world" but we had to get killcount again and after that we decided to smoke for 5 also. Just when we we're about to go in, the team that was there started cheering, we already knew what had happened- they got a hilt. On thursday there was a game update (the prayer one), we decided to go to arma again and get yet another hilt. We headed off to the same world again but in the end after a long trip (160 kc trio) we got bored and left with a helm split only. We blame it on the update. My point is that the servers MIGHT have certain "drop times". No...just no... YOU! ATTEND TET EVENTS! CLICK HERE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stonewall337 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Who is to say that drop rates are steady? Although they obviously are most likely, could you prove that one person doesn't have a better built in drop rate at one monster, but not at another? Just a thought :P [hide=Drops]Araxxor Eye x1 Leg pieces x2GWD: 5000 Addy bar Steam B Staff x3 Z Spear x6 Sara. Hilt x2 Bandos Hilt x2 (LS, Solo)SS x6 (1 LS)Tormented Demons: Shard x6 Slice x5 Claws x9 Limbs x3DKS: Archer x21 Warrior x31 Berserker x30 Axe x51[/hide] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mischlings Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Something to add to this mess: If a monster has a drop rate of 1 in X, and you kill it X times, the odds of getting that drop is ~63% (assuming that X is relatively large -- anything over about 20 is high enough), which is quite interesting. Now, that is the chance that you get at least one drop and not exactly one drop of said item. (Interestingly enough, as X increases, the chance of getting that drop in X kills approaches 1-1/e.) To me, that is very interesting, as it proves just how bad of an idea the gambler's fallacy is and shows that, in the short term, the drop rate doesn't mean anything. It'd be interesting to do some computer simulations of something like this -- might come up with some interesting data. It's all down to probability. It will screw with your head. It's complete and total insanity, but the simple fact is that even though the odds are low, as long as they're not 0, anything can happen. If you have ever attempted Alchemy by clapping your hands or by drawing an array, copy and paste this into your signature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Miner52289 Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Random drops are random. So random in fact, that humans cannot comprehend such a degree of randomness. Slayer DropsDragon Chainbody (dust devil), Dragon Platelegs x2, Dragon Plateskirt x3, Dragon Boots x38, Dragon Med Helm x5, Dragon Spear x3, Shield Left Half x4Staff of Light x2, Abyssal Whip x16, Dark Bow x17, Granite Maul x17, Focus Sight, Hexcrest x2, Black Mask x4, Leaf-bladed Sword, Mystic x31, Obsidian x13, Brine Sabre x2, Spirit Shield, Dragonstone x5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chc05dude Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Law of Large numbers. The more you kill the more you converge on the actual drop rate. According to the ever-reliable wikipedia it takes 700-800+ dice rolls just to converge on the theoretical average dice roll of 3.5 Thats only 6 different outcomes. When your talking about something like 3rd age(1/10,000), no single player could ever hope to get a normalized drop rate. Unless of course you did millions of clues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bladewing Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 Law of Large numbers. The more you kill the more you converge on the actual drop rate. According to the ever-reliable wikipedia it takes 700-800+ dice rolls just to converge on the theoretical average dice roll of 3.5 Thats only 6 different outcomes. When your talking about something like 3rd age(1/10,000), no single player could ever hope to get a normalized drop rate. Unless of course you did millions of clues.You would have to have played Runescape for over 50 years, 18 hours a day to do 1,000,000 clues. How to Chin Nechyraels for fast XP and profit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormveritas Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 The argument of the law of large numbers is accurate here, it is also true that statistics force their way through the door when you play long enough. That said, the average player has neither the time nor the resources to gain kills in many venues (particularly boss fights) to approach statistically significant numbers to qualify these assertions. Bear in mind that most players don't play as much as those that visit the boards and post regularly. Most don't get several hundred boss kills. For those that DON'T kill by the truckload, the fortunes of their drops certainly does reside in the realm of pure luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Merre Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 I have no id what it is with the drop rates. I'm obviously very unlucky when hunting for rare drops.For example: I've never ever gotten a dragon drop (only 1 pair of d boots...) nor any other decent drop...I try and do at least 3 assignments a day to get my slay to L85 soon. Done over 150 assignments this month and best drops I got was 3 pairs of r boots at Nechs in one run.On the other hand I got two god dhide bodies this week (zammy & sara) worth 2.5mil together from clues.I don't understand why many of my friends who slay half a much as me, get such good drops where I get the regular stuff...I've stopped wondering or breaking my head over it. I hope my luck changes one day :) 2016 goals: all skills +30mil xp - Completed this goal 11th December 2016 2017 goals: get at least 3 more master capes (start xp: invention done@21st Jan, mining done@2nd April & ranged 76/104mil done@June 20th) & all skills +40mil xp (done 24th August) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killerjack Posted December 5, 2009 Share Posted December 5, 2009 652 tds dry streak.....2 whips 91-99 slayer....6 weeks no sigil at corp (friend of my mine still has never seen one since release) .....2 d meds and d spear soloing bandos, guess i have no luck at all. People say jagex limits the number of items released into the game per day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now