UK Politics Discussion

[Sy_Accursed]

Pulling out of the European Union would be foolish. Getting rid of the euro currency, however, could be a good idea. That's one problem with Clegg's eurocentrism: he wants the UK to adopt the euro. Most of Spain's problems right now are because of the lack of control over currency.

 

He actually said he wants to hold a referendum on it when it would benefit our economy to change to it, and I think he might have withdrawn that now. I'm not sure...

 

The Clegg wnats euro is pure spin.

 

As he said in the debate he has only said if at any point the euro has significant economic benefits over the pound (eg pound absolutely plummets) they would consider it and referendum it.

[dusqi]

I don't like all this anti-Europe talk. Europeans come here to work, they do jobs that UK people wouldn't do otherwise and they work hard and for cheap. That helps the British businesses that employ them. Similarly, if I want to go and live in Spain or Germany or France, I can. I would like a closer political relationship with Europe also, because it's all very well to talk about keeping sovereignty, but that is becoming more and more worthless as America and Asia grow as blocs. We saw what happened with Iraq - that was a sovereign Britain without dignity. Sure, the UK has lots in common with the US, especially when it has a Democrat President, but it seems to me that the long term trend is for America to do an increasing number of things that the UK does not agree with.

[The Dark Lord]

Decolonization sealed the West's fate anyway. Because of this, I could see how a European pseudo-empire would protect the West as a collective from a competitive Eastern bloc.

 

I just don't like the idea of great countries such as France, Germany, and Britain being thrown into a single mix. Of course, that depends on the way that you look at it.

 

(And we have gotten pretty off-topic.)

[Will H]

I don't like all this anti-Europe talk. Europeans come here to work, they do jobs that UK people wouldn't do otherwise and they work hard and for cheap. That helps the British businesses that employ them. Similarly, if I want to go and live in Spain or Germany or France, I can. I would like a closer political relationship with Europe also, because it's all very well to talk about keeping sovereignty, but that is becoming more and more worthless as America and Asia grow as blocs. We saw what happened with Iraq - that was a sovereign Britain without dignity. Sure, the UK has lots in common with the US, especially when it has a Democrat President, but it seems to me that the long term trend is for America to do an increasing number of things that the UK does not agree with.

 

I do like this anti-Europe talk. It's important for people to realise that we're losing the EU the three things that we need most right now. The availiability of jobs, a government that does it's best for the people who elected them, and government money. You don't need to have any nationalist feelings to realise that the EU is a very bad idea. So long as we keep on trading ties, economically speaking Europe would still be a bloc as well. As Cameron said, too many people confuse the economy with the government.

[magekillr]

Here's Krugman explaining why Greece is [bleep]ed and why Britain isn't (hint, it's because Greece was on the euro and Britain wasn't). The EU should stay strong, but I think the euro zone should be scraped.

 

So is Britain different, and why?

 

Some of the raw budget numbers are daunting: according to Eurostat, Britain ran a primary deficit that is, a deficit not counting interest payments of 9.5 percent of GDP last year. Thats larger than Greeces 8.5 percent.

 

Against that, Britain had debt of only 68 percent of GDP, compared with Greeces 115 percent.

 

But the really big difference is in economic prospects. Britains recovery hasnt been as strong as one would like but the economy is growing, and since deflation looks unlikely thanks to the floating exchange rate, Britain can expect to see growth of several percent a year in nominal GDP. Greece, on the other hand, is in the euro straitjacket, and is probably condemned to years of depressed activity and deflation; S&P says it wont regain 2008 nominal GDP until 2017, and that sounds optimistic to me.

 

To see the implications, imagine for a moment that both Greece and Britain were paying 5 percent on their debt, but that Britain was expecting 3 percent nominal GDP growth, Greece zero. Then Britain would need to run a primary surplus of 1.5 percent of GDP to stabilize the debt/GDP ratio; Greece would have to run a surplus of 5.75.

 

Wait: theres more. Britain can expect some automatic decline in its primary deficit as the economy recovers; Greece cant.

 

And one more thing: Britain can offset the depressing effects of fiscal austerity with loose monetary policy; Greece cant.

 

What all this suggests is that while Britain faces a nasty adjustment, its within the realm of possibility; Greece, even if it had retained market confidence, would face an adjustment at least two or three times as severe. Naturally, then, Greece has lost market confidence, turning the situation into a death spiral.

 

So Britain isnt Greece largely because it still has its own currency.

 

Really, that should be Gordon Browns slogan: He kept us out of the euro. And thats the saving grace of the situation.

 

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/04/30/why-isnt-britain-in-more-trouble/

[OldJoe]

^Off-topic, but don't forget the pension age in Greece compared to the rest of European countries.

[Danqazmlp]

So we have only two days to go. Has anybody else voted by post or are most of you waiting until the 6th to vote?

[Sy_Accursed]

So we have only two days to go. Has anybody else voted by post or are most of you waiting until the 6th to vote?

I voted by post =]

[Racheya]

Voting on the day :)

 

Today's issue seems to be tactical voting. Is anyone going to be voting tactically to keep a party out of your area?

 

A hung parliament seems more and more likely, yet we still don't know who the Lib Dems would 'side' with. This makes me worry a bit, since while the Labour sensibilities are closer to Lib Dem, there are still chances that they'd side with the Conservatives...

[magekillr]

I think they'll side with whomever will get electoral reform through. That seems to be their most important issue.

[Sy_Accursed]

Lib Dems wuld side with Labour.

Nick Clegg said so.

 

Labour would side with Lib Dems.

Gordon said So.

 

Conservatives want to side with lib dems.

Cameron said so, but nick clegg said yeah not gonna happen.

[Racheya]

Well, we can hope at least that it stays that way :)

 

And the electoral reform seems important, but Nick Clegg said it *isn't* a prerequisite.

 

Edit: I just found these cartoons on the BBC website XD This one is of Bigotgate, but I found them all quite hilarious: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/8654926.stm

[magekillr]

Here's my prediction:

 

 

A parliament where Liberals/Labour cannot form a coalition, which forces Conservatives to govern from a minority. This is a Tory nightmare scenario, but it's what I'm predicting.

[Danqazmlp]

That's what's wrong with our voting system. 2/3 of the country would not want conservatives in power, yet they could be. And even though Lib dems could get around 1/3 of the votes, they would get around 1/5 of the seats.

[magekillr]

Well if it's any consolation, the Tories in this position will be forced to take a butcher knife to the budget and make harmful cuts. They'll be out of power relatively quickly after that, and no one will want them back.

[Danqazmlp]

4 years is still long enough for them to mess up the country (which they will as all they have ever done is say the opposite of labour). That is of course unless they call another election.

[tortilliachp]

what interests me the most at this point is how many strategic voters the parties can mobilize. Will people in numbers support the "lesser of two evils" if they vote in a district where their party candidate has no chance? will they bother showing?

 

I think that might determine the outcome of the election, hopefully in a direction that ensures a more representative democracy in the future.

[jasignhagj]

Id like to see Lib Dems win, but anything is better than the conservatives. It'l be interesting to see if BNP or any other small parties pick up any seats. Im a Canadian, but i like following international politics, they're so much better than ours. Over here in Canada, elections are so damn boring. The 2008 debate was so lamely monotonous that i switched to Biden/Palin debate after 20 mins.

[1_man_army]

It'l be interesting to see if BNP or any other small parties pick up any seats.

 

I doubt the BNP will win a seat because they don't have a high enough concentration of votes in one area. As far as other small parties winning seats, Respect are fighting the seat they won in the last election but I don't see them keeping it (they won on a largely anti-war ticket in 2005 in a large Muslim area of London). I would expect UKIP and the Greens to make small gains in the popular vote but still not gain a seat. There is usually an independent maverick or two who steal a seat with a great local campaign but I'm not sure how likely that is this time with the election looking to be such a close fight.

[topham]

I finally got round to reading all the policies today, and I know who I'm siding with.

I must say that 1 of the parties would not benefit me in anyway, but the other 2 I could live with.

Also, based on the previous elections I can roughly predict who will win in my area.

 

I reckon its gonna be close, but I really hope the Conservatives do not get in.

[1_man_army]

If anyone is considering voting tactically or is vaguely interested in how important their constituency is, this website should give you an idea of how influential your constituency is/can be in the overall outcome of the general election. http://www.voterpower.org.uk

 

Just as an example here is the page for my constituency: http://www.voterpower.org.uk/kirkcaldy-cowdenbeath

[Danqazmlp]

We really do need electorial reform. This system may have worked when we had very few voters, but now days it just skews the results too much.

[magekillr]

Speaking of electoral reform, Mr. John Cleese:

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NSUKMa1cYHk

 

That was from 1983.

[Danqazmlp]

Wow. That was basically perfect. They should run that ad again. That is almost exactly what Clegg wants this time around.

[magekillr]

Here in the US we need run-off voting much like he showed in the video (Nader-1, Obama-2, McKinney-3, Republican..erm, don't want). Much fairer, and I don't need to vote for the Democrats all of the time.