RS is luck based

[All_Is_Great]

Sorry for another thread on the front page, alot of things lately have me wanting to rant again lol.

 

Anyway, this really sucks. This past weekend (friday included), I spent a lot of time doing barrows, hoping to get several mill in drops so buying a steel dragon for my POH won't break my bank. I'm no hardcore player, but I did put in 10+ hours partially because I was sick as well. So, I'm barrowing away with a guthan's set i bought and a SOL + ice blitz. And on average i do around 12 chests/trip, and around 9 per hour, maybe 8. Average that out, it works out to be 80-90 trips. And what do I get? NOTHING.

 

I'm aware of the fact that a 90 dry streak isn't THAT much, but you haven't heard the other part of the story.

 

In 2008, I got membership for the first time, after finally achieving 1k total in f2p. I was very happy, and thought members would be quite a ways easier to make money than f2p. I saved up 4-5 years worth of stuff in f2p and only had a 10m bank. So after deciding to go to barrows since that's where many people i knew got their first piles of cash, I ran into some problems. Long story short, with on and off barrowing, I've gone about almost 200 dry (rough estimate, but probably not off by much), and still haven't revieved anything worthwhile. So fastforward to last month, I got my first item! worth a whopping 1.5m, made me pretty happy, thinking "hey, now i've gotten my first, they gotta start coming at a decent pace right?"

 

Boy, was I ever wrong!

 

Another thing, I've killed ALOT of metal dragons, possibly 2k+ total (might now seem alot to some, but alot to a casual player like me), and the BEST drop I've gotten from them is a dragon skirt when they were worth 160k couple years ago.

 

 

Tl;dr version:

 

200 dry streak at barrows over 2 years, broken last month by torag legs drop, but have gone 90 dry again.

2k metal drags (iron + steel) and got a 160k skirt drop couple years back.

 

That's about it for all the drops I've recieved. And I'm getting kinda frustrated, but now I'm gonna go back to farming + flipping, hopefully to make enough for a steel drag in the next couple weeks.

 

/rant, now I feel a little better.

[K4ylan]

Ahh, we've all been there.

One day you'll get a partyhat from a drop party and you'll forget all 'bout it.

[Saunamajuri]

Been playing 6 years. I have only tried barrows 5 times. Got nothing.

 

Best drop I have gotten ever was clue... which gave black full helm (g), 400k... and that was yesterday. Still I bought dragon pickaxe. How? By doing nothing else but herb runs, mtk and level 1 clues.

[AndJusticeForOne]

That's about how I am with drops. The only drops I've ever gotten worthy of showing up in my Adventurer's Log are two granite mauls and I've been playing for 6 or 7 years.

[re4p3r1]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

[applyapple]

Dry streaks are dry streaks. Noone is that lucky.

[All_Is_Great]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

[anim7]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

 

Using a two sample hypothesis test for a proportion, with that many observations, I conclude at a 99.9% level of confidence that the true proportion for the chest drop rate is less than 1/18.

 

You are either really unlucky, or that 1/18 figure is wrong.

[friedtomato7]

how much killcount did you get because my friends tell me that it make a lot of difference in the loot.

[12pure34]

Never gotten a decent drop in my entire runescape carreer (since 2003)

..

 

Now

1 dragon platelegs

4 Dragon hatchets

1 warrior ring

2 dragon pickaxes

And so much more items from clues and who knows whatelse

 

:P luck isn't a problem. In the end it always evens out. Just keep trying.

It is like I always say: ''Geluk moet je afdwingen'' (translated to English: You have to enforce luck)

[meb]

Runescape is probably the most grind-based game there is :ohnoes:

[Bladewing]

Runescape is probably the most grind-based game there is :ohnoes:

If you've played maplestory, you'd know you were wrong.

[applyapple]

Never gotten a decent drop in my entire runescape carreer (since 2003)

..

 

Now

1 dragon platelegs

4 Dragon hatchets

1 warrior ring

2 dragon pickaxes

And so much more items from clues and who knows whatelse

 

:P luck isn't a problem. In the end it always evens out. Just keep trying.

It is like I always say: ''Geluk moet je afdwingen'' (translated to English: You have to enforce luck)

He's totally right. I am never lucky, but when I am it works in my favor (occasionally making up for my earlier failure).

[All_Is_Great]

Never gotten a decent drop in my entire runescape carreer (since 2003)

..

 

Now

1 dragon platelegs

4 Dragon hatchets

1 warrior ring

2 dragon pickaxes

And so much more items from clues and who knows whatelse

 

:P luck isn't a problem. In the end it always evens out. Just keep trying.

It is like I always say: ''Geluk moet je afdwingen'' (translated to English: You have to enforce luck)

 

I guess, but I really hope it happens sooner rather than later. And I'd really lmao if I got something like Ahrim staff/ Karil coif to break the streak. :thumbdown:

[re4p3r1]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

1/18 chances of getting barrows sounds extremely high to me, it makes me wonder why barrows aren't more common if it's 1/18

[All_Is_Great]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

1/18 chances of getting barrows sounds extremely high to me, it makes me wonder why barrows aren't more common if it's 1/18

 

I'm pretty its not as low as you think. 1/18 MIGHT be pushing it, but its definately not 1/300 haha.

 

Oh and guess what I just got,

 

 

:wall:

[Aiel]

In over 5k chest I have seen a 1/12.6 rate. I've had back to back double chests, and a 460 chest drystreak. It's all luck.

[applyapple]

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

1/18 chances of getting barrows sounds extremely high to me, it makes me wonder why barrows aren't more common if it's 1/18

Maybe it's including dragon meds, key halves and the like?

 

its less of luck, luck is more of an abstract life thing. with rs, it's more of a probability thing. somethings are dropped at a higher rate than other.

 

Uh, when barrows armour has a drop rate of 1/18 from the chest, and I get 1/300, i THINK that is bad luck and not a "probability thing".

1/18 chances of getting barrows sounds extremely high to me, it makes me wonder why barrows aren't more common if it's 1/18

 

I'm pretty its not as low as you think. 1/18 MIGHT be pushing it, but its definately not 1/300 haha.

 

Oh and guess what I just got,

 

 

:wall:

Loop half, minds, deaths, bloods and gp?

[All_Is_Great]

 

Loop half, minds, deaths, bloods and gp?

 

Yup, but I hope you didn't think I got 1k deaths + bloods...

[qeltar]

Whenever I start thinking I'm having bad luck in RS, I consider myself lucky.

 

As I see it, we all have bad luck in some areas and good luck in others. And if you have to choose where to have bad luck, much better to have it in a game than in life.

 

Or as I put it: I may never win a one in a million lottery, but that's fine with me as long as I don't die in a one in a million fluke accident. :)

[holiday]

Golly gee, your get rich quick schemes aren't working!

[applyapple]

Golly gee, your get rich quick schemes aren't working!

Stupid limited shop stock.........

[All_Is_Great]

Golly gee, your get rich quick schemes aren't working!

 

They sure aren't, but I hope they do soon :thumbup:

 

And qeltar: haha that is a good way to look at it :smile:

[i_r_slayer]

In over 5k chest I have seen a 1/12.6 rate. I've had back to back double chests, and a 460 chest drystreak. It's all luck.

 

The likeliness of you opening 460 chests for 1 piece of loot at a 1:13 drop rate is .0000000000000102195347%. If your scenario is true, I would suggest trying the lottery.

[Aiel]

In over 5k chest I have seen a 1/12.6 rate. I've had back to back double chests, and a 460 chest drystreak. It's all luck.

 

The likeliness of you opening 460 chests for 1 piece of loot at a 1:13 drop rate is .0000000000000102195347%. If your scenario is true, I would suggest trying the lottery.

jesus, Ive never calculated the rates. Id hazard to guess back to back double chests is rarer 1/13^4=1/28561=3.501x10^-5=.00003501. Not quite as rare but w/e. That would be the formula I think.