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Tip.It Times - 10th June 2012


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#1
tripsis
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Time for a new release of the: >>>Tip.It Times!<<<


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WRITE FOR THE TIMES - SUBMIT A GUEST ARTICLE:
Remember, YOU can write an article for the Tip.It Times! You can apply to write full time, or just submit a "one-off" guest article any time you want! Our editors will work with you to ensure that your article is ready for publication. All guest articles can be submitted to tripsis or any other Editorial Panel member. For more information, including details on how to apply full time, read this forum thread: http://forum.tip.it/...he-tipit-times/

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#2
999134
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what is this about game changing prayers at 97 and 99 and them coming in the first week of the month (already passed...?) o.O
Check it out, huge amount of effort has gone into this massive mod!
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#3
Hamtaro
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what is this about game changing prayers at 97 and 99 and them coming in the first week of the month (already passed...?) o.O

Pretend the hypothetical BTS was released on Friday and the update was the next Tuesday or Wednesday (like how this month worked).
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#4
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I don't understand if just didn't understand or trolling^^? Anyway nice set of articles this week well written and thought out featured article - nice quick read for the game theory article. But to Blyuante I'm pretty glad they didn't integrate all the dungeoneering resources into the game - it would of been an entirely different game also the difference between DG and Surface is quite nice.

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#5
SwreeTak
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The fish mask article is very well-written, but I believe more focus should have been put on the fact that even though the fish mask will probably never reach as high as party hats, it will rise in price. With time it will become rarer. More people will want fewer masks. This will go slowly, but it will happen since there will be no way to get the mask after this summer. So for those who have a few masks in bank and plays for a few years more, it will have been a great idea to invest in the fish mask.

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#6
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Gotta say the fish mask article was the best of the lot, and it wasn't that great... but that may just be me.

The game theory article was... interesting... but I didn't see much point to it. There was no real lesson to learn from that, from what I could tell, so it didn't seem to fit with what is usually in the Times.

The DG article had me mentally screaming "Gaah! NONONONONO" by the end of it. I'm not a fan of dungeoneering, I don't consider it a skill, and I don't enjoy training it - that may change with time, but I'm still pretty likely to just solo it rather than working with a team. That's just how I play. So the idea that Jagex should have taken the solo-only QBD and made it into another team-required boss makes me facepalm. A lot. While I appreciate that it would be kinda cool, it'd just be another piece of content that's useless to me. I'm still hoping for more content aimed at solo players like me, so I can't really like articles that support more team-based content.

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#7
blue monk 30
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The DG article had me mentally screaming "Gaah! NONONONONO" by the end of it. I'm not a fan of dungeoneering, I don't consider it a skill, and I don't enjoy training it - that may change with time, but I'm still pretty likely to just solo it rather than working with a team. That's just how I play. So the idea that Jagex should have taken the solo-only QBD and made it into another team-required boss makes me facepalm. A lot. While I appreciate that it would be kinda cool, it'd just be another piece of content that's useless to me. I'm still hoping for more content aimed at solo players like me, so I can't really like articles that support more team-based content.


I get how you feel, I'm mostly a solo-player to. But if the QBD would be like dungeoneering, it would be levelled, so also solo-able. And the main point was that dungeoneering could be more integrated, which seems a very good idea to me.

#8
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The articles this week were good, but quite different than usually, more technical, kinda.

The fish mask one was well thought-out, but maybe overthinking too much, I mean the fact if it will become rare or not won't change the game, unless Jagex plans on releasing this kind of item every month or so (which I really hope they won't). I think in time it will become a rare as well, that's just what happens if supply ends.

The game theory article was interesting, but pretty off-topic, seeing as the times is kinda about the game and this was just translating some theories to Runescape-terms/setting.

I liked the Dungeoneering article, made me think. In my opinion, Jagex could quite easily integrate the resources into the game. For example, you could make dungeoneering fish appear at fishing spots (maybe special ones in special caves) and add a dungeoneering level requirement. That way, if you train your dungeoneering too, you can get more variety and better fish to fish. Or make dungeon resources appear in the resource dungeons. Add the ores and metals with dungeoneering requirements to mine, smith and wield. This way, beginning players also get some fun in choosing and getting the best combination for them as armour/weapon choices will be more complex than just getting the full set of the next metal. Making it possible to instance bosses makes them more excessible and I think changing the drop table mechanism to make sure lvl 50's don't get dragon drops shouldn't be too much of a task. I like dungeoneering, more as a minigame than as a skill, but if you could use/train it in other ways, that would make it way more interesting.

#9
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A thought on the fish mask situation. While I do like the article, something that was only touched on partially is the initial suply relative to eventual population. Realisticly, RuneScape is not going to get much bigger, at least not like it did after the other rares. When all the other rares were released, the total population of the game was a tiny fraction of what it is now. The game will never again multiply its population many times over as measured from now. So your relying solely on people retireing the masks by quitting with them still in the bank to make them more uncommon. Thats' really where the game is at now, is that the population doesn't really get much bigger (hence all the marketing compensation), it just cycles through players. What I suspect has happened is that they did the math, and realized that the game will probably cease to exist before the masks can truly command full rare status, since it will probably take at least a couple decades to even really start on that journey.

I also enjoyed the dungeoneering article. There really was a lot of missed opourtunity because of the way they approached its integration into the game.

I'll read the game theory one a but later. My mind is not currently up to that particular task.

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#10
SwreeTak
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A thought on the fish mask situation. While I do like the article, something that was only touched on partially is the initial suply relative to eventual population. Realisticly, RuneScape is not going to get much bigger, at least not like it did after the other rares. When all the other rares were released, the total population of the game was a tiny fraction of what it is now. The game will never again multiply its population many times over as measured from now. So your relying solely on people retireing the masks by quitting with them still in the bank to make them more uncommon. Thats' really where the game is at now, is that the population doesn't really get much bigger (hence all the marketing compensation), it just cycles through players. What I suspect has happened is that they did the math, and realized that the game will probably cease to exist before the masks can truly command full rare status, since it will probably take at least a couple decades to even really start on that journey.

I also enjoyed the dungeoneering article. There really was a lot of missed opourtunity because of the way they approached its integration into the game.

I'll read the game theory one a but later. My mind is not currently up to that particular task.


The fish masks will never be as rare as santas or party hats. But they will start to rise in price not too long after they have become discontinued items. Not a lot, but enough to make investing in them now a good idea. At least that is my opinion. I don't believe in RS increasing its population. Neither I believe in that it will be a fast, hundreds of millions gp earning type of investment to keep a few fish masks in bank. But I believe in that in a few years the fish masks will have risen enough to make them worth keeping. Because as you say; People are quitting. I think that as old players quit they don't really care about their money in bank. If I decided to quit this game I would certainly not clean out my bank before I left. Why would I when I wouldn't have any use of the money I gained by doing so? Certainly quite a few people might do so just because they think they will return some day. But then I think most don't, because those who really quit this game quits and never comes back.
But if you happen to be right, and fish masks never even rise with more than a few millions, then I and all others who have stocked up on these masks have still made a nice profit of a few millions. So there's really no reason not to get a few.
They're not the most beautiful item of RS though. I can agree with all of those who say that :P

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#11
Randox
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Yes, the price will rise. But it will be mostly artificial in the first year or so, which will lead to a very unstable price. On the other hand, they have the potential to become a slow flip item I think, since as part of the rare market they might rise and fall a lot against the demand of the other rares (namely santas in the winter. Party hats don't really every do anything exciting). Not really an expert on merching, but the instability might be exploitable by the savy.

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#12
SwreeTak
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Yes, the price will rise. But it will be mostly artificial in the first year or so, which will lead to a very unstable price. On the other hand, they have the potential to become a slow flip item I think, since as part of the rare market they might rise and fall a lot against the demand of the other rares (namely santas in the winter. Party hats don't really every do anything exciting). Not really an expert on merching, but the instability might be exploitable by the savy.


Precisely. Now you all know it :) Go buy those fish masks while you still can ;)

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#13
Low Levelled
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I've seen a lot of people on YT getting mass amounts of fish masks from the wheel of doom.

#14
Alg
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I've seen a lot of people on YT getting mass amounts of fish masks from the wheel of doom.

It kind of throws the comparisons to old rares out the window, since there are many more people to get masks for a much longer time (As Randox said), and every single one of them knows how rares are supposed to work.

#15
NukeMarine
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Here's my theory based on 600 spins:

Average daily spins: 2 million (major assumption)

Chance of uncommon: 1 in 4
Chance of fish mask (1st week): 1 in 100
Number of fish mask (1st week): 140,000

Chance of rare: 1 in 300
Estimated chance of fish mask (100 days): 1 in 7500
Number of fish masks (100 days): 24,000

Now, it's possible the fish mask will not be 1/7500. Unless you got people willing to share honest data on their spin results, only Jagex will have the answer on that. Same goes with the number of daily spins. However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.

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#16
Alg
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Are you including bought spins?

#17
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Are you including bought spins?


I'm seriously limited in the amount of data I have access to. With exception of results I was able to get myself, everything else (average daily spins) is a big assumption. Still, I think I'm giving a reasonable, conservative estimate.

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#18
Alg
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Are you including bought spins?


I'm seriously limited in the amount of data I have access to. With exception of results I was able to get myself, everything else (average daily spins) is a big assumption. Still, I think I'm giving a reasonable, conservative estimate.

Fair enough.

#19
Kaida23
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However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.

I don't think there are 200k of all the other rare items combined left in the game, so if that many Fish Masks get introduced I can't see them becoming as much of a rare item as the others (short of someone buying them all up and hoarding them, of course).

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#20
NukeMarine
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However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.

I don't think there are 200k of all the other rare items combined left in the game, so if that many Fish Masks get introduced I can't see them becoming as much of a rare item as the others (short of someone buying them all up and hoarding them, of course).

I'm inclined to agree. With ~1.5 mill active member accounts and 500k legit F2P accounts (based off high scores and the immediate post Bot Nuke numbers) that'll be about 1 mask for every 10 accounts.

I think the mask will be rarer than people are giving it credit for. Runescape wiki lists it as a 1 in 50 chance without testing so that decreases perceived value. In addition, people don't realize how RARE the chance is of getting any rare on SOF much less the Fish Mask when it goes there. It'd take data from 20k+ spins to get at least a reasonable value. Thing is, I doubt people buying spins would be willing to track that data so we're left with just assumptions.

*edit: fixed member and f2p numbers

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