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tripsis

Tip.It Times - 10th June 2012

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Time for a new release of the: >>>Tip.It Times!<<<

 

 

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WRITE FOR THE TIMES - SUBMIT A GUEST ARTICLE:

Remember, YOU can write an article for the Tip.It Times! You can apply to write full time, or just submit a "one-off" guest article any time you want! Our editors will work with you to ensure that your article is ready for publication. All guest articles can be submitted to @tripsis or any other Editorial Panel member. For more information, including details on how to apply full time, read this forum thread: http://forum.tip.it/topic/209138-how-to-write-for-the-tipit-times/

 

I'd like to remind people of the rules pertaining to Times threads:

 

[hide=Read these rules before posting in this thread]

Rampant flame wars have taken control of virtually every week's times discussion topics. The following guidelines must be followed when posting on this topic. Posts that ignore these guidelines will be removed.

 

1. You are invited and welcome to express like or dislike on articles and a particular author's writing style. It is not acceptable, however, to flame or personally insult an author. Posts that aren't anything but an attack will be removed from the topic.

 

2. Spelling and grammar errors can be reported to tripsis by PMing her and they will be fixed promptly. It is not necessary to post them on the discussion topic.

 

3. Off topic posts that do not discuss the content of that week's articles will be removed. This is not the place to discuss the direction of the times, how much you love or hate the times, etc. Off topic posts will be removed.

 

By keeping within these guidelines, Times discussion topics will mean more for the Panel and Administration than just a place for flame wars. Flame wars do not provide any useful feedback to the Times, which is mainly what we're aiming for with these topics: feedback.

 

This policy is effective as of now, November 17, 2010. Any posts prior to the creation of this policy may or may not be removed according to the new guidelines.

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When replying please make sure to clarify the article you are replying to! Thanks!

 

If you spot any typos or mistakes in an article then please PM them to @tripsis. :)

 

Enjoy the articles!


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what is this about game changing prayers at 97 and 99 and them coming in the first week of the month (already passed...?) o.O


Check it out, huge amount of effort has gone into this massive mod!

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what is this about game changing prayers at 97 and 99 and them coming in the first week of the month (already passed...?) o.O

Pretend the hypothetical BTS was released on Friday and the update was the next Tuesday or Wednesday (like how this month worked).


Player since 2004. All skills 1M+ XP.

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I don't understand if just didn't understand or trolling^^? Anyway nice set of articles this week well written and thought out featured article - nice quick read for the game theory article. But to Blyuante I'm pretty glad they didn't integrate all the dungeoneering resources into the game - it would of been an entirely different game also the difference between DG and Surface is quite nice.


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The fish mask article is very well-written, but I believe more focus should have been put on the fact that even though the fish mask will probably never reach as high as party hats, it will rise in price. With time it will become rarer. More people will want fewer masks. This will go slowly, but it will happen since there will be no way to get the mask after this summer. So for those who have a few masks in bank and plays for a few years more, it will have been a great idea to invest in the fish mask.


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Gotta say the fish mask article was the best of the lot, and it wasn't that great... but that may just be me.

 

The game theory article was... interesting... but I didn't see much point to it. There was no real lesson to learn from that, from what I could tell, so it didn't seem to fit with what is usually in the Times.

 

The DG article had me mentally screaming "Gaah! NONONONONO" by the end of it. I'm not a fan of dungeoneering, I don't consider it a skill, and I don't enjoy training it - that may change with time, but I'm still pretty likely to just solo it rather than working with a team. That's just how I play. So the idea that Jagex should have taken the solo-only QBD and made it into another team-required boss makes me facepalm. A lot. While I appreciate that it would be kinda cool, it'd just be another piece of content that's useless to me. I'm still hoping for more content aimed at solo players like me, so I can't really like articles that support more team-based content.


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The DG article had me mentally screaming "Gaah! NONONONONO" by the end of it. I'm not a fan of dungeoneering, I don't consider it a skill, and I don't enjoy training it - that may change with time, but I'm still pretty likely to just solo it rather than working with a team. That's just how I play. So the idea that Jagex should have taken the solo-only QBD and made it into another team-required boss makes me facepalm. A lot. While I appreciate that it would be kinda cool, it'd just be another piece of content that's useless to me. I'm still hoping for more content aimed at solo players like me, so I can't really like articles that support more team-based content.

 

I get how you feel, I'm mostly a solo-player to. But if the QBD would be like dungeoneering, it would be levelled, so also solo-able. And the main point was that dungeoneering could be more integrated, which seems a very good idea to me.

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The articles this week were good, but quite different than usually, more technical, kinda.

 

The fish mask one was well thought-out, but maybe overthinking too much, I mean the fact if it will become rare or not won't change the game, unless Jagex plans on releasing this kind of item every month or so (which I really hope they won't). I think in time it will become a rare as well, that's just what happens if supply ends.

 

The game theory article was interesting, but pretty off-topic, seeing as the times is kinda about the game and this was just translating some theories to Runescape-terms/setting.

 

I liked the Dungeoneering article, made me think. In my opinion, Jagex could quite easily integrate the resources into the game. For example, you could make dungeoneering fish appear at fishing spots (maybe special ones in special caves) and add a dungeoneering level requirement. That way, if you train your dungeoneering too, you can get more variety and better fish to fish. Or make dungeon resources appear in the resource dungeons. Add the ores and metals with dungeoneering requirements to mine, smith and wield. This way, beginning players also get some fun in choosing and getting the best combination for them as armour/weapon choices will be more complex than just getting the full set of the next metal. Making it possible to instance bosses makes them more excessible and I think changing the drop table mechanism to make sure lvl 50's don't get dragon drops shouldn't be too much of a task. I like dungeoneering, more as a minigame than as a skill, but if you could use/train it in other ways, that would make it way more interesting.

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A thought on the fish mask situation. While I do like the article, something that was only touched on partially is the initial suply relative to eventual population. Realisticly, RuneScape is not going to get much bigger, at least not like it did after the other rares. When all the other rares were released, the total population of the game was a tiny fraction of what it is now. The game will never again multiply its population many times over as measured from now. So your relying solely on people retireing the masks by quitting with them still in the bank to make them more uncommon. Thats' really where the game is at now, is that the population doesn't really get much bigger (hence all the marketing compensation), it just cycles through players. What I suspect has happened is that they did the math, and realized that the game will probably cease to exist before the masks can truly command full rare status, since it will probably take at least a couple decades to even really start on that journey.

 

I also enjoyed the dungeoneering article. There really was a lot of missed opourtunity because of the way they approached its integration into the game.

 

I'll read the game theory one a but later. My mind is not currently up to that particular task.

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A thought on the fish mask situation. While I do like the article, something that was only touched on partially is the initial suply relative to eventual population. Realisticly, RuneScape is not going to get much bigger, at least not like it did after the other rares. When all the other rares were released, the total population of the game was a tiny fraction of what it is now. The game will never again multiply its population many times over as measured from now. So your relying solely on people retireing the masks by quitting with them still in the bank to make them more uncommon. Thats' really where the game is at now, is that the population doesn't really get much bigger (hence all the marketing compensation), it just cycles through players. What I suspect has happened is that they did the math, and realized that the game will probably cease to exist before the masks can truly command full rare status, since it will probably take at least a couple decades to even really start on that journey.

 

I also enjoyed the dungeoneering article. There really was a lot of missed opourtunity because of the way they approached its integration into the game.

 

I'll read the game theory one a but later. My mind is not currently up to that particular task.

 

The fish masks will never be as rare as santas or party hats. But they will start to rise in price not too long after they have become discontinued items. Not a lot, but enough to make investing in them now a good idea. At least that is my opinion. I don't believe in RS increasing its population. Neither I believe in that it will be a fast, hundreds of millions gp earning type of investment to keep a few fish masks in bank. But I believe in that in a few years the fish masks will have risen enough to make them worth keeping. Because as you say; People are quitting. I think that as old players quit they don't really care about their money in bank. If I decided to quit this game I would certainly not clean out my bank before I left. Why would I when I wouldn't have any use of the money I gained by doing so? Certainly quite a few people might do so just because they think they will return some day. But then I think most don't, because those who really quit this game quits and never comes back.

But if you happen to be right, and fish masks never even rise with more than a few millions, then I and all others who have stocked up on these masks have still made a nice profit of a few millions. So there's really no reason not to get a few.

They're not the most beautiful item of RS though. I can agree with all of those who say that :P


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Yes, the price will rise. But it will be mostly artificial in the first year or so, which will lead to a very unstable price. On the other hand, they have the potential to become a slow flip item I think, since as part of the rare market they might rise and fall a lot against the demand of the other rares (namely santas in the winter. Party hats don't really every do anything exciting). Not really an expert on merching, but the instability might be exploitable by the savy.

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Yes, the price will rise. But it will be mostly artificial in the first year or so, which will lead to a very unstable price. On the other hand, they have the potential to become a slow flip item I think, since as part of the rare market they might rise and fall a lot against the demand of the other rares (namely santas in the winter. Party hats don't really every do anything exciting). Not really an expert on merching, but the instability might be exploitable by the savy.

 

Precisely. Now you all know it :) Go buy those fish masks while you still can ;)


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I've seen a lot of people on YT getting mass amounts of fish masks from the wheel of doom.

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I've seen a lot of people on YT getting mass amounts of fish masks from the wheel of doom.

It kind of throws the comparisons to old rares out the window, since there are many more people to get masks for a much longer time (As Randox said), and every single one of them knows how rares are supposed to work.

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Here's my theory based on 600 spins:

 

Average daily spins: 2 million (major assumption)

 

Chance of uncommon: 1 in 4

Chance of fish mask (1st week): 1 in 100

Number of fish mask (1st week): 140,000

 

Chance of rare: 1 in 300

Estimated chance of fish mask (100 days): 1 in 7500

Number of fish masks (100 days): 24,000

 

Now, it's possible the fish mask will not be 1/7500. Unless you got people willing to share honest data on their spin results, only Jagex will have the answer on that. Same goes with the number of daily spins. However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.


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Are you including bought spins?

 

I'm seriously limited in the amount of data I have access to. With exception of results I was able to get myself, everything else (average daily spins) is a big assumption. Still, I think I'm giving a reasonable, conservative estimate.


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Are you including bought spins?

 

I'm seriously limited in the amount of data I have access to. With exception of results I was able to get myself, everything else (average daily spins) is a big assumption. Still, I think I'm giving a reasonable, conservative estimate.

Fair enough.

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However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.

I don't think there are 200k of all the other rare items combined left in the game, so if that many Fish Masks get introduced I can't see them becoming as much of a rare item as the others (short of someone buying them all up and hoarding them, of course).


 

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However, I don't more than 200k fish masks coming into the market. This could be a very rare item after all.

I don't think there are 200k of all the other rare items combined left in the game, so if that many Fish Masks get introduced I can't see them becoming as much of a rare item as the others (short of someone buying them all up and hoarding them, of course).

I'm inclined to agree. With ~1.5 mill active member accounts and 500k legit F2P accounts (based off high scores and the immediate post Bot Nuke numbers) that'll be about 1 mask for every 10 accounts.

 

I think the mask will be rarer than people are giving it credit for. Runescape wiki lists it as a 1 in 50 chance without testing so that decreases perceived value. In addition, people don't realize how RARE the chance is of getting any rare on SOF much less the Fish Mask when it goes there. It'd take data from 20k+ spins to get at least a reasonable value. Thing is, I doubt people buying spins would be willing to track that data so we're left with just assumptions.

 

*edit: fixed member and f2p numbers


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WRT the DG article:

 

I'm pretty sure they have plainly said that the entire reason they were able to make so much new stuff without turning it into an absolute nightmare for balance is that Daemonheim is cut off from the reason of the world.

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This post is mostly speculative as I have only been on Runescape for six years, thus have no firsthand knowledge of how the early tradable holiday items were perceived.

 

One other major difference between partyhats and fish masks AFAIK is that there probably wasn't much thought at the time that partyhats would someday become extremely valuable. They were extremely common when they were released, not worth anything, and were just a fun holiday diversion. A player at the time may have grabbed a single one from the first Christmas cracker they got as a drop, ignoring all others that followed. The more tenacious may has pulled crackers until they had the complete set. However, with limited bank space, partyhats would be dropped to make room for an ever increasing number of weapons, armor, tools, supplies, and quest items. Sure, there were probably a few merchants who foresaw the potential profits to be reaped over time after they were discontinued, but your average player probably thought of them as useful to collect as ashes.

 

Contrast that with the fish mask where Jagex is trumpeting the fact that it will be discontinued and thus will become rarer as well as its intrinsic high-alch value. No one will drop a fish mask on the ground to free up bank space. It is, from the get go, something to either hoard or sell off in the GE. Jagex seems to be hoping for the former, that folks will buy extra spins to amass several fish masks. Unfortunately, this puts Jagex and those buying extra spins at cross purposes--As for every additional fish mask acquired through purchased spins, the greater the supply, and in turn the lower the relative price will become.

 

Jagex could actually deliver the final death blow to Runescape while making a tidy profit by offering partyhats as an ultra-rare drop someday. Lots of players would buy hundreds of spins in hopes of scoring one, and a few thousand new phats would come into the GE, and the price would crash! At that point, it wouldn't merely just be riots in Varrock and Falador; Jagex HQ would need to hire extra security to deal with all the non-virtual threats they'd receive.

 

By advertising a new "rare" item on the SoF, they're simply trying to have their cake and eat it too.


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To be fair, MANY rares were duped. No one but Jagex (and any ex-employees willing to spill the beans) know how many rares are in existance now. My gut tells me it's in the tens of thousands but I don't know. Even with that, I never liked rares impact on the economy and I don't like Jagex introducing a new rare on purpose.

 

The real annoying thing is this new mask is UGLY. They could have made it the driftwood crown, neptune's crown or some other cool rare head piece. Instead we look like an idiotic Admiral Akbar.


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To be fair, MANY rares were duped. No one but Jagex (and any ex-employees willing to spill the beans) know how many rares are in existance now. My gut tells me it's in the tens of thousands but I don't know. Even with that, I never liked rares impact on the economy and I don't like Jagex introducing a new rare on purpose.

I'd think that most estimates are too low. The whole point of these items is that they're rare, and the rarer people think they are, the more valuable they become.

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The DG article was pretty good. Pretty much my feelings about it. Its too seperated from the rest of the game to really call it a skill. You can't use the skill outside of Daemonheim which makes it more of a minigame than an actual skill. I would have rather had them put it into the game as a minigame and balance it out so the rewards require the same amount of work to get( as much as I hate to say that because I don't like running dungeons over and over again just to get one item). I don't have a problem with DG itself, just the way it was implemented.


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