Answered Are you sure third-age armor is from hard clues?

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

I have been doing hard clue scrolls for over a decade, and I have never gotten a third age armor, not once.

Which leads me to believe there is an error of information both on Tip.it and the RuneScape wiki.

 

(EDIT: Alright, over a decade is an exaggeration since I became a member in 2006, but my main point still stands.)

Edited January 7, 2015 by Arceus

[Arceus]

Yes, it's a reward from completing hard or elite treasure trails. I'm sure someone on Tip.It would be able to verify firsthand (maybe Salleh?). It's just extremely rare. That's why some pieces are worth a good fraction of a billion, even though they're little more than cosmetic as a practical matter.

[essiw]

You should try to look into what RNG means.

 

Also:

http://runescape.wikia.com/wiki/Third-age_melee_set
 
"More recently, however, Mod John C confirmed that the chance of receiving a specific piece of third-age armour from a Treasure Trail is 1 in 42,000, so the chance of receiving any piece of third-age melee armour from a Treasure Trail is 1 in 10,500."

[Arceus]

So does that mean the chance of getting one of them (Ranged, Melee, or Magic) would then be ~1 in 3,500?

[essiw]

So does that mean the chance of getting one of them (Ranged, Melee, or Magic) would then be ~1 in 3,500?

I would guess so yes :)

 

Edit: it seems we have a prayer set to now, that one has 5 items. So that would be around ~1/2500

[WoodenFruit]

Oh, i've gotten third age from a clue. It's rare as hell, do not expect third age every time you do a clue.

 

[DeEliteOne]

So does that mean the chance of getting one of them (Ranged, Melee, or Magic) would then be ~1 in 3,500?

I would guess so yes  :)

 

Edit: it seems we have a prayer set to now, that one has 5 items. So that would be around ~1/2500

 

Prayer set is from elites though, so no, 3,500 is correct assuming the other numbers are.

 

On topic: basically as above, don't expect to get 3a at all tbh, it's that rare - and clues do take a while. And don't claim rare items can't be obtained from a certain method just because you haven't gotten any...

 

edit: words

[Kaur]

Third age release date: 5 December 2006
Elite clues and druidic 3rd age release date: 4 August 2010

[V O R K]

Done thousands

 

[bleep] RNGeesus

[Alg]

Done thousands

 

[bleep] RNGeesus

Basically: it does come from hard clues, but it might as well not for all the good it would do you~

[Hedgehog]

It could also be a conspiracy

[Ammako]

I would know.

 

 

[Sy_Accursed]

Is it just me or is Arceus and the chain of number quotes on odds of a specific set horribly horribly wrong.

 

If the odds of getting any piece at all cumulative of all on offer is 1 in 10,500 the odds of getting a piece from a specific subset of that would be lesser odds (Eg 1 in >10,500) not better odds (eg 1 in <10,500).

 

It's like saying you've got a bag of 12 balls - 3 red, 3 blue, 3 green, 3 black.

The cumulative odds of drawing a non-black ball is 9/12 or 3/4

The odds of drawing a specific colour, non-black ball is only 3/12

 

If the odds of getting a piece from 1 specific set was 1 in 3,500 the odds of getting a piece from any of 3 sets would be 3 in 3,500 aka 1 in ~1166

If the odds of getting any piece is 1 in 10,500 the odds of a piece from a specific set would be more in the ball park of 0.3 in 10,500 or 1 in 32,000

[Saradomin_Mage]

"More recently, however, Mod John C confirmed that the chance of receiving a specific piece of third-age armour from a Treasure Trail is 1 in 42,000, so the chance of receiving any piece of third-age melee armour from a Treasure Trail is 1 in 10,500."

The chance of receiving Third-Age armour at all (on OSRS at least) is simply 12 in 42,000, or 1 in 3500, which is probably what Arceus meant.

[Sally]

Yes, it's a reward from completing hard or elite treasure trails. I'm sure someone on Tip.It would be able to verify firsthand (maybe Salleh?). It's just extremely rare. That's why some pieces are worth a good fraction of a billion, even though they're little more than cosmetic as a practical matter.

 

I know other people have confirmed their gains of 3a, but for further proof:

 

 

I will say it is still amazingly rare. I have a clue scroll item loot tab and I haven't gotten another piece of it just yet. Hoping for a piece of 3a from a clue, however, is like hoping you'll get a dchain from dust devils or a Zaryte bow from Nihil, so very rare that few will ever get it.

[Arceus]

Is it just me or is Arceus and the chain of number quotes on odds of a specific set horribly horribly wrong.

 

If the odds of getting any piece at all cumulative of all on offer is 1 in 10,500 the odds of getting a piece from a specific subset of that would be lesser odds (Eg 1 in >10,500) not better odds (eg 1 in <10,500).

 

It's like saying you've got a bag of 12 balls - 3 red, 3 blue, 3 green, 3 black.

The cumulative odds of drawing a non-black ball is 9/12 or 3/4

The odds of drawing a specific colour, non-black ball is only 3/12

 

If the odds of getting a piece from 1 specific set was 1 in 3,500 the odds of getting a piece from any of 3 sets would be 3 in 3,500 aka 1 in ~1166

If the odds of getting any piece is 1 in 10,500 the odds of a piece from a specific set would be more in the ball park of 0.3 in 10,500 or 1 in 32,000

Sy, you are of course correct, but what I intended to say was that the chance of getting one item from the total pool (Ranged, Melee, or Magic, that is one item out of those twelve) is 1/3,500.

 

We know Mod John C said the chance of getting one of the melee pieces is 1/10,500.

So I assume the probability of one of the ranged or magic pieces is the same.

Then (approximately at least) the probability of getting an item from one of the three groups is 3/10,500 = 1/3,500, unless I'm making an arithmetic mistake.

 

Just wanted to clear that up.

[Ammako]

I will say it is still amazingly rare. I have a clue scroll item loot tab and I haven't gotten another piece of it just yet. Hoping for a piece of 3a from a clue, however, is like hoping you'll get a dchain from dust devils or a Zaryte bow from Nihil, so very rare that few will ever get it.

Isn't Zaryte bow from Nihils amazingly rare, like literally 1/1,000,000 though?

[Blaze The Movie Fan]

Thanks for answering my question, guys.

 

I wasn't denying the items exist, I just thought that how they are obtained might have been an error in information, well you proved me wrong.

 

Also I have gotten god armor (like Saradomin full helm and Zamorak platebody) on many occasions.

[Arceus]

Thanks for answering my question, guys.

 

I wasn't denying the items exist, I just thought that how they are obtained might have been an error in information, well you proved me wrong.

 

Also I have gotten god armor (like Saradomin full helm and Zamorak platebody) on many occasions.

Yes, those are of course much more common :).

[Sally]

 

I will say it is still amazingly rare. I have a clue scroll item loot tab and I haven't gotten another piece of it just yet. Hoping for a piece of 3a from a clue, however, is like hoping you'll get a dchain from dust devils or a Zaryte bow from Nihil, so very rare that few will ever get it.

Isn't Zaryte bow from Nihils amazingly rare, like literally 1/1,000,000 though?

 

 

Yeah, something like that. Maybe not the best drop to make my point but oh well :D